Category Archives: Futurology

What are Strategic and Market Foresight?

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What are Strategic and Market Foresight?

by Braden Kelley

In my previous article What’s Next – Through the Looking Glass we explored the notion that time is not linear and this is a key part of the FutureHacking™ mindset.

To paraphrase, we get to the future not in a straight line, but by hopping from lily pad to lily pad and as we do so our landings create ripples outward in all directions and our jump direction choices and the amplitude of the ripples at each waypoint determines the shape of our path choice and our view on the potential future. And ultimately futurology and futurism are the disciplines of exploring potential, possible and preferable futures.

Only from a continuous commitment to this exploration can any organization have any chance of ongoing success. But trying to make sense of the future and to find productive ways to shape it – feels incredibly dauting to most people.

To simplify this complexity, I created the FutureHacking™ methodology and tools to enable us average humans to become our own futurist.

“FutureHacking™ is the art and science of getting to the future first.”

This is our goal. To get better at finding the best possible path and the best ripples to amplify. Doing so optimizes our distance and chosen directions so that we arrive at our preferred future. The FutureHacking™ methodology and tools make this not only possible, but accessible, so that we’ll put in the work – and reap the benefits!

This article is another in a series designed to make foresight and futurology accessible to the average business professional. Below we will look at what Strategic and Market Foresight are and how they drive ongoing business success. First some definitions:

  • Strategic Foresight is about combining methods of futures work with those of strategic management. It is about understanding upcoming external changes in relation to internal capabilities and drivers.

  • Market Foresight is about the consideration of possible and probable futures in the organization’s relevant business environment, and about identifying new opportunities in that space.

  • Source: Aalto University

Strategic Foresight and Market Foresight are two tools in our toolbox as we sharpen our focus on the potential and possible futures as we work to define a preferable future and a path to creating it.

Market Foresight gives us permission to explore how the market we compete in is likely to change as we move forward. This includes looking at how customers may change, how their consumption of existing products and services might change, and how changing customer wants and needs will create the potential for new products, and services, and even markets. Economics, demographics, trends and other factors all have a factor to play here, and we need methods for exploring the impact of each.

Strategic Foresight gives us permission to make shifts in strategy. The magic happens when we productively look both internally and externally to identify the most important changes that we can influence AND that we would monitor. The better we can understand the external changes most likely to occur (or that we want to occur), the more focus we can bring to identifying the internal capabilities that we will need to strengthen and the capabilities that we will need to build OR to buy & integrate.

The most successful organizations do a good job of matching their timeline for strategic and capability changes to the pace of market changes that are occurring. And while not explicitly mentioned, the pacing and branching of technology is a big consideration in both Strategic Foresight and Market Foresight.

Good Market Foresight will give you a better view to where the lily pads will be, and good Strategic Foresight (and investments) will help strengthen your jumping legs and propel you through a more optimal path – increasing your chances of getting to the future first!

Public resources for those that want to learn more about Strategic Foresight:

To learn more about Market Foresight, increase your knowledge of:

  • Market Research methods
  • Trendwatching/Trendhunting
  • Innovation frameworks

FutureHacking™ is Within Our Grasp

I’ve created a collection of 20+ FutureHacking™ tools to help you be your own futurist.

These tools will be available to license soon, and I’ll be holding virtual, and possibly in-person, workshops to explain how to use these simple tools to identify a range of potential futures, to select a preferred future, and activities to help influence its realization.

I think you’ll really like them, but in the meantime, I invite you to share your thoughts on how you look at and plan for the future in the comments below.

Finally, make sure you’re subscribed to our newsletter to get our weekly collection of articles, along with updates on the forthcoming FutureHacking™ set of tools.

Keep innovating!


Accelerate your change and transformation success

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What’s Next – Through the Looking Glass

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What's Next - Through the Looking Glass

by Braden Kelley

Humanity is obsessed with the future, and we always want to know what’s next for us.

Sometimes we want to know the future so badly that we stress ourselves out about imagined futures that won’t ever come to pass instead of dealing with what is right in front of us.

Time is Not Linear

Most people think of time in a linear fashion, but this is the wrong way of thinking about it.

It is more helpful instead to think of time as a wave (or as a pulse) emanating from a central point in an outward direction, representing all of the possible futures. Then as the next point in one of those possible futures becomes fixed, then another wave emanates from this new point representing all of the new possible futures. The math of what the future MIGHT look like gets really big, really fast – as you might imagine.

This is what makes predicting the future so difficult.

The number of inputs influencing the next step in your future journey is massive, and the number of potential next steps that are outputs of your next best action is equally massive.

So, while it is important to plan for the future and to develop a point of view on the future you would like to be the result of your actions, it is still just a guess. Making it more important and impactful to look at the near future more often than not.

Recently I came across a video from CableLabs that looks at one potential near future:

We Are Already Living in a Virtual Reality

The first choice the creators faced was augmented reality versus virtual reality, and you’ll see that they chose to highlight augmented reality instead of virtual reality. I think this is the right choice as many people would say we are living in a virtual reality already.

Our eyes and other sensory organs do their best to provide inputs to our brain about the physical reality we live in, but the information is often inaccurate and incomplete. Our brain tries to fill in the gaps, but there is some much we don’t understand about how the reality we live in operates.

The world we live in is already amazing, and there is more value in augmenting our experience of the reality we live within, than there is escaping into another reality that is more clumsy, awkward and lower fidelity than our experience of the virtual reality we live in now.

Our world is changing so fast that it is important for organizations and individuals to not just plan for the next month or the next quarter, but to plan for what we would like the near future to look like and think about the ways in which we would like to, and realistically can, influence it.

FutureHacking™ is Within Our Grasp

But the concepts of futurology and the role of the futurist seem pretty nebulous at best. It is because of this that I’ve begun creating a collection of FutureHacking™ tools to help you.

These tools will be available to license soon, and I’ll be holding virtual, and possibly in-person, workshops to explain how to use these simple tools to identify a range of potential futures, to select a preferred future, and activities to help influence its realization.

I think you’ll really like them, but in the meantime, I invite you to check out the embedded YouTube video and to share your thoughts on how you look at and plan for the future in the comments below.

Finally, make sure you’re subscribed to our newsletter to get our weekly collection of articles, along with updates on the forthcoming FutureHacking™ set of tools.

Keep innovating!

To read more about what scientists say we get wrong about time, check out this BBC article

Image Credit: Pixabay

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The Ethics of Futurology: Exploring Its Impact on Society

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The Ethics of Futurology: Exploring Its Impact on Society

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

The term “futurology” has become increasingly associated with the exploration of the potential social, economic, and technological effects of the future. It is a field of study that requires a great deal of ethical consideration, due to its potential to shape the lives of individuals and entire societies. In this article, we will explore the ethical implications of futurology and its impact on society.

The most obvious ethical concern of futurology is that it can be used to shape the future in ways that may not be beneficial to society as a whole. For example, futurists have long been concerned with the potential impacts of automation and artificial intelligence on the workforce. Such technology could lead to massive job losses, which would have a devastating effect on the economy and lead to a rise in inequality. As a result, it is important to consider the implications of such technologies before they are implemented.

Furthermore, futurology can be used to create a vision of the future that may be unattainable or unrealistic. Such visions can shape public opinion and, if taken too far, can lead to disillusionment and disappointment. It is therefore important to consider the implications of any predictions made and to ensure that they are based on real-world data and evidence.

In addition to the potential ethical concerns, futurology can also have positive impacts on society. By predicting potential social, economic, and technological trends, futurists can help governments and businesses prepare for the future. This can help to create more informed and efficient decision-making, leading to better outcomes for all.

Despite the potential benefits of futurology, it is important to consider the ethical implications of its use. It is essential that any predictions made are based on evidence and do not lead to unrealistic expectations or disillusionment. It is also important to consider the potential impacts of any new technologies and to ensure that they are implemented responsibly. By doing so, futurology can help to shape a better future for all.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

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Top 5 Future Studies Programs

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Top 5 Future Studies Programs

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

In the ever-changing world of technology, futurists are needed more than ever. With the help of futurists, companies, governments, and organizations can plan for the future and make better decisions about how to adapt to a rapidly changing world. With the increasing demand for futurists, many universities have begun to offer undergraduate degrees in futurology. Here are the top five undergraduate futurology programs:

1. University of Oxford

The University of Oxford offers an undergraduate Master of Science in Futures Studies, which focuses on the study of complex systems, the analysis of dynamic change, and the development of long-term strategies. This program includes courses such as “Futures Thinking and Practice”, “Futures and the Environment” and “Futures and Society”.

2. University of Sussex

The University of Sussex offers an undergraduate degree in Futures Studies. This program focuses on the study of trends and events in the world, and how to anticipate and prepare for these changes. Courses in this program include “Futures Thinking”, “Theories and Techniques of Futures Studies”, and “Futures Analysis and Practice”.

3. University of Calgary

The University of Calgary offers an undergraduate Major in Futures Studies. This program focuses on the study of global and regional issues, and how to anticipate and prepare for them. Courses in this program include “Global Futures”, “Risk and Resilience”, and “Futures Thinking and Planning”.

4. University of Toronto

The University of Toronto offers an undergraduate Minor in Futures Studies. This program focuses on the study of trends and events in the world, and how to anticipate and prepare for them. Courses in this program include “Futures Thinking”, “Futures Analysis” and “Futures and Society”.

5. University of Washington

The University of Washington offers an undergraduate Minor in Futurism. This program focuses on the study of technological, social and environmental change, and how to anticipate and prepare for these changes. Courses in this program include “Futures Thinking and Practice”, “Futures and the Environment”, and “Futures and Society”.

These five universities offer excellent undergraduate programs in futurology. With their help, students can gain the skills and knowledge to become successful futurists and help shape the future.

I’m sure I missed some great future studies educational programs out there. Which ones did I miss?
(add them in the comments)

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

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Five Key Futurology Terms

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What is Futurology?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Futurology is the study of predicting future trends and developments based on current and past data. As technology advances and our world continues to evolve, futurists seek to understand how we can use the present to shape our future. In this article, we will explore five key futurology terms and their implications.

1. Autonomous Technology

Autonomous technology refers to systems that can operate independently of human control. Autonomous vehicles, such as driverless cars and drones, are examples of this type of technology. Autonomous technology is believed to have the potential to revolutionize transportation, manufacturing, and many other industries.

2. Cybernetics

Cybernetics is the study of communication and control systems in both natural and artificial systems. Cybernetics looks at how information is exchanged and processed between systems, and how it can be used to control them. Cybernetic systems are used in robotics, artificial intelligence, and other areas of technology.

3. Posthumanism

Posthumanism is a philosophical approach to the study of the future of humanity. It looks at how humans might evolve as technology advances and how our relationship to technology will shape our future. Posthumanism also examines the ethical implications of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

4. Singularity

Singularity refers to a hypothetical point in the future when technological advancement reaches a point of exponential growth. This point is believed to be a turning point in human history, with the potential to completely transform society.

5. Technological Determinism

Technological determinism is the idea that technology determines the direction of human progress. It looks at how technology shapes our values, beliefs, and behavior, and how it can be used to create a better future. Technological determinism is a key concept in futurology, as it helps us to understand how technology can be used to shape our future.

Futurology is an ever-evolving field, and these five terms are just a small sample of the concepts that are being explored. As technology continues to evolve, so too will our understanding of the future and our ability to shape it.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

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How Is PESTLE Analysis Connected to Trends?

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How Is PESTLE Analysis Connected to Trends?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

PESTLE is an acronym that stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental factors. It is a tool used to analyze and understand the macro-environmental factors that can affect the success of a business. PESTLE analysis helps businesses identify potential risks, opportunities and trends that may arise due to changes in the external environment.

Political Factors

Political factors refer to the governmental regulations and policies that can impact businesses. These include laws, regulations, taxation, political stability, and trade agreements. Businesses must be aware of political changes in order to adjust their strategies accordingly. For instance, changes in tax regulations can affect the cost of goods and services, and can lead to higher or lower profits.

Economic Factors

Economic factors refer to the macroeconomic conditions that affect the performance of a business. These include inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and GDP. Businesses must be aware of economic changes to make sure that their strategies are in line with current economic conditions.

Social Factors

Social factors refer to the beliefs and attitudes of the people in a society. These include demographics, values, education levels, and consumer preferences. Businesses must be aware of social trends in order to tailor their marketing strategies to meet the needs of their target market.

Technological Factors

Technological factors refer to the advances in technology that can affect businesses. These include the development of new products and services, the emergence of new technologies, and the improvement of existing technologies. Businesses must be aware of technological changes in order to stay ahead of the competition.

Legal Factors

Legal factors refer to the laws and regulations that govern businesses. These include labor laws, competition laws, and health and safety laws. Businesses must be aware of legal changes in order to comply with the law and avoid potential penalties.

Environmental Factors

Environmental factors refer to the natural environment that can affect businesses. These include climate change, pollution, and resource scarcity. Businesses must be aware of environmental changes in order to minimize the potential impacts on their operations.

PESTLE analysis is an important tool for businesses to understand the macro-environmental factors that may affect their performance. By being aware of the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors, businesses can identify trends and adjust their strategies to maximize their chances of success.

Bottom line: Understanding trends is not quite the same thing as understanding the future, but trends are a component of futurology. Trend hunters use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist and trend hunter.

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What is the difference between signals and trends?

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What is the difference between signals and trends?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

The terms SIGNAL and TREND are often used interchangeably in the business world, but they actually have very different meanings. A signal is a short-term indication of a change in direction, while a trend is a long-term pattern or movement in a particular direction.

Signals are often indicators of changes in the market, such as a new product launch, a sudden surge in sales, or a shift in customer preferences. They’re often used to inform decisions about the future, such as when to launch a new product or when to deploy a marketing strategy.

Trends, on the other hand, are longer-term movements that can provide insights into the overall direction of the market, such as a rising demand for a particular product or service. They’re often used to inform strategy and investments, as they can provide clues as to where the market is headed.

Innovation, however, requires looking beyond signals and trends. It requires looking at the bigger picture and considering not just what is happening now, but what might happen in the future. It requires thinking outside the box and being creative in order to come up with unique solutions and ideas.

Innovation is about anticipating and preparing for the future. It’s about staying ahead of the curve and finding new ways to do things better, faster, and cheaper. It requires embracing risk and being willing to try new things and challenge the status quo.

So, while signals and trends can be useful in informing decisions, they can’t replace the need for innovation. To stay ahead of the competition, companies need to be constantly looking for ways to innovate and stay ahead of the curve.

Bottom line: Understanding signals and trends is not quite the same thing as understanding the future, but signals lead to trends, and are a component of futurology. Trend hunters use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes (including looking for signals), but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist and trend hunter.

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What are Signals?

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And how do signals relate to trends and futurology?

What are Signals?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Signals are important indicators of future trends and developments in a field. Futurology, the science of predicting the future, relies heavily on the ability to identify, analyze, and interpret signals that may indicate future changes or developments.

Signals can come from a variety of sources, including economic indicators, market data, industry trends, consumer behavior, and technological advances. By studying and interpreting these signals, experts in the field of futurology can develop predictions about the future.

For example, economic indicators such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and consumer spending can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in the economy. Market data such as stock prices, commodity prices, and currency exchange rates can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in the financial markets. Industry trends such as the rise of new technologies, the emergence of new business models, and the evolution of consumer behavior can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in markets and industries.

Signals can also be identified through the analysis of consumer behavior. For example, changes in consumer behavior, such as an increase in the use of online shopping or a shift in preferences towards healthier, organic foods, can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in consumer markets.

Finally, technological advances can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in a variety of fields. For example, the development of artificial intelligence and machine learning can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in the field of automation, or the development of new medical technologies can be used to identify signals that may indicate future changes in healthcare.

By analyzing and interpreting signals from a variety of sources, futurologists can make educated guesses about the future and develop predictions about the direction of a field and its emerging trends. This ability is essential for organizations that want to stay ahead of the curve and prepare for future changes.

Bottom line: Understanding signals is not quite the same thing as understanding the future, but signals lead to trends, and are a component of futurology. Trend spotters use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes (including looking for signals), but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist and trend spotter.

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Can You Predict the Future with Data Analytics?

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Can You Predict the Future with Data Analytics?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

The ability to accurately predict the future has been a long-held dream of mankind. For centuries, people have been trying to divine the future, using methods such as divination, astrology, and other forms of prognostication. However, in recent years, a new approach to predicting the future has emerged: data-driven predictions. Using data and advanced analytics, businesses, governments, and organizations have begun to develop algorithmic models that can accurately predict the future.

The technology behind predictive analytics is based on the idea that data, combined with sophisticated algorithms and analytics, can be used to forecast what may happen in the future. By analyzing past behaviors and trends, the algorithms can make predictions about future outcomes. For example, a financial institution may use predictive analytics to forecast the likelihood of a customer defaulting on a loan. A retailer may use predictive analytics to predict the demand for a particular product in a given market.

The possibilities for predictive analytics are virtually limitless. Predictive analytics can be used to anticipate customer behavior, forecast demand for products and services, identify potential risks, and more. Predictive analytics can also be used to optimize operations and reduce costs. In addition, predictive analytics can be used to improve customer experience, tailor marketing campaigns, and optimize pricing.

At the same time, there are significant risks and ethical considerations associated with using predictive analytics. For example, there are concerns about privacy, accuracy, and potential discrimination. As such, it is important for organizations to be thoughtful and deliberate when using predictive analytics.

Despite the risks and ethical considerations, it is clear that predictive analytics are here to stay. As technology advances, predictive analytics will continue to become more powerful and more ubiquitous. As such, it is important for organizations to stay ahead of the curve and develop strategies to utilize predictive analytics in a responsible and effective way.

Bottom line: Predictive analytics are not quite the same thing as futurology, but predictive analytics are a component of futurology. Predictive data analysts use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist.

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What is Market Forecasting?

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What is Market Forecasting?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Market forecasting is a critical tool used by organizations to identify trends in their respective markets and plan for the future. It is used to assess the current state of the market, identify future opportunities and threats, and create strategies to capitalize on those opportunities and mitigate those risks. By providing a comprehensive and detailed analysis of a market, market forecasting can help organizations make informed decisions and stay ahead of their competitors.

When it comes to successful market forecasting, there are a few key strategies and principles to consider.

First, it is important to analyze the market from a macro perspective. This means looking at the overall trends that are driving the industry and analyzing the current and future potential of the market. It also involves taking into account the competitive environment, the potential for growth, and other external factors that could influence the market.

Second, it is important to take a more focused approach and look at specific market segments. This involves analyzing the forces that drive those segments, such as consumer preferences, price points, and other factors, and then using this information to develop forecasts for each segment.

Third, it is important to use a variety of data sources when assessing the market. This includes analyzing financial statements, economic indicators, consumer surveys, industry reports, and other sources of data. By combining these various sources of information, organizations can gain a more comprehensive and accurate picture of the market.

Finally, it is important to ensure that the market forecasting process is regularly updated. As the market and the environment change, organizations need to adjust their forecasts accordingly. Additionally, organizations should use a variety of forecasting techniques, such as trend analysis, scenario planning, and Monte Carlo simulations, to ensure that their forecasts remain accurate.

By following these strategies and principles, organizations can successfully forecast the market and capitalize on opportunities to stay ahead of their competitors. It is an essential part of any organization’s long-term success and should be taken seriously.

Bottom line: Market forecasting is not quite the same thing as futurology, but market forecasting is a component of futurology. Market forecasters use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist and market forecaster.

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