Category Archives: Futurology

Picking Your Future

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Understanding the Spectrum of Futures

In the ever-evolving landscape of business, the ability to envision and navigate the future is increasingly a competitive advantage. Yet, the future is not a singular path but a spectrum of possibilities, each varying in probability, desirability, and preventability. To lead effectively, it is crucial for executives and innovators to understand these different futures: possible, probable, preferable, and preventable.

Possible Futures

The universe of possible futures encompasses everything that could happen, no matter how improbable. This is the realm of the imaginable, constrained only by the laws of physics and the boundaries of creativity. Within the context of business, possible futures include every potential evolution of markets, technologies, consumer preferences, and competitive landscapes.

Fostering a culture of innovation demands a deliberate dive into the pool of possible futures. By encouraging ‘what if’ scenarios, companies can identify seeds of new opportunities before they become obvious. This exploration is akin to maintaining a portfolio of diverse ideas, some of which may become instrumental in leading tomorrow’s markets.

Probable Futures

Probable futures are those that are likely to occur based on current trends, data, and trajectory analysis. They represent the linear extension of the present, framed by existing dynamics in the environment. These futures are extrapolations of known variables and are often the focus of traditional strategic planning.

Businesses often default to planning for probable futures as they seem the most tangible and secure. Metrics, trends analyses, and forecasts become key tools. However, being solely grounded in probable futures can lead to a kind of strategic myopia where emerging disruptions are overlooked. The challenge lies in balancing attention to prevalent trends while scanning the horizon for outliers and black swans.

Preferable Futures

Preferable futures are those that are aligned with an organization’s goals, values, and vision. They harness aspirations and ideals, focusing on what stakeholders desire to achieve rather than solely on what seems likely or possible. Building a preferable future involves intentional strategy making and often requires significant change and innovation.

Designing a preferable future necessitates a comprehensive understanding of organizational strengths, stakeholder aspirations, and societal impact. It involves setting ambitious goals and reverse-engineering the steps needed to achieve these aspirations. Cultivating a mindset oriented towards preferable futures requires organizations to embed vision-driven leadership and to empower employees to innovate in alignment with their collective goals.

Preventable Futures

Preventable futures are those undesirable outcomes that an organization seeks to avoid. These futures could stem from risk factors such as technological obsolescence, reputational damage, regulatory changes, or shifts in consumer sentiment. Identifying and mitigating preventable futures involves risk management and robust contingency planning.

A proactive approach to preventable futures requires resilience-building across the organization. Companies need to cultivate a deep understanding of potential threats, build adaptive strategies, and institute flexible processes to pivot rapidly when necessary. Scenario planning and regular stress-testing of systems and strategies become essential practices in this effort.

The Interplay of Futures in Business Strategy

While these classes of futures can be analyzed individually, the true power of foresight in business emerges from understanding their interplay. Strategic foresight involves dynamically engaging with all four types of futures, continually shifting focus according to the context and strategic needs of the organization.

Analysis of Possible Futures: Encourages broad ideation, innovation, and discovery of novel opportunities and threats.
Focus on Probable Futures: Provides a foundation for realistic planning and sets benchmarks and expectations.
Establishment of Preferable Futures: Aligns strategy with vision and values, guiding purposeful action and innovation.
Mitigation of Preventable Futures: Ensures preparedness, resilience, and sustainability by addressing potential risks and challenges.

As a human-centered change and innovation thought leader, I advocate for organizations to embrace all forms of futures thinking as an integral component of strategic planning. By doing so, they can cultivate adaptive resilience and align their trajectory with both pragmatic and bold aspirations.

Conclusion: Crafting a Futures-Ready Organization

In a world characterized by rapid change, the foresight discipline of distinguishing between possible, probable, preferable, and preventable futures is invaluable. This holistic approach to the future enables businesses to anticipate change, harness opportunities, and avoid pitfalls with agility and wisdom.

Ultimately, the goal is to craft an organization that is futures-ready—equipped to leverage the creativity of possible futures, grounded in the realism of probable futures, driven by the vision of preferable futures, and protected against the hazards of preventable futures. In achieving this balance, businesses can chart a path towards sustained success and meaningful impact in a world that never stands still.

Extra Extra: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pexels

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An Introduction to Strategic Foresight

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GUEST POST from Stefan Lindegaard

Strategic foresight is an essential discipline for organizations aiming to navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain future. It involves a systematic exploration of potential futures to inform strategic decision-making. This approach enables organizations to anticipate changes, identify opportunities, and mitigate risks, thereby ensuring their long-term sustainability and competitiveness.

In my role at Manyone, I am intrigued by how the skills of strategic foresight can be combined with my previous work and research on topics such as innovation, collaboration, mindset dynamics, leadership, team dynamics, strategic HR, and organizational development, including change management and transformation.

Over the next few months, I plan to delve deeper into this integration and share my thoughts, ideas, and perspectives on how we can better utilize these combined insights in our organizations today. I greatly value your input and look forward to an engaging dialogue!

Three Stages of Strategic Foresight

To begin, I would like to present some key elements for implementing strategic foresight in an organization, accompanied by a brief explanation and some key questions for consideration:

1. Leadership Commitment and Involvement: The involvement of top leadership is crucial in strategic foresight. Their commitment legitimizes the process and ensures necessary resources are allocated. Leaders should actively participate and promote foresight, integrating it into the strategic agenda and encouraging organization-wide engagement.

How can we ensure continuous leadership support for foresight initiatives?
What role can leaders play in embedding foresight into the organizational culture?
How can top executives model and advocate for strategic foresight within the organization?
How can our leadership teams as well as the individuals in them best gain value from strategic foresight initiatives?

2. Cultural Alignment and Change Management: An organizational culture supportive of foresight is key. Cultures that value long-term thinking and are open to new ideas facilitate successful foresight activities. It may require managing cultural change to challenge existing assumptions and norms.

What cultural barriers exist to implementing strategic foresight?
How can we foster a culture that values and supports long-term thinking?
What change management strategies are needed to align the culture with foresight practices?
How can we use strategic foresight to enhance internal and external communication in this context?

3. Building Internal Foresight Capabilities: Developing internal foresight expertise ensures the organization can continually engage in foresight activities. Training staff and integrating foresight practices into regular activities are critical for building and sustaining these capabilities.

What training or development is needed to build foresight skills within our team?
How can foresight be integrated into existing roles and responsibilities?
What resources are required to sustain internal foresight capabilities over time?
Who from the outside can help us learn more about and build these internal capabilities?

4. Cross-Functional Collaboration: Collaborating across different departments enhances the foresight process with diverse insights. Effective foresight requires input from various functional areas to ensure a comprehensive understanding of potential futures.

How can we facilitate cross-departmental collaboration in the foresight process?
What structures or processes are needed for effective cross-functional integration?
How do we ensure representation and participation from all relevant departments?

5. Scenario Development and Utilization: Developing diverse, plausible scenarios is central to foresight. These scenarios aid organizations in exploring and preparing for various futures, enhancing decision-making under uncertainty.

How do we develop and select relevant and diverse scenarios?
How will these scenarios be used to inform decision-making and strategy?
What processes should be established for regularly reviewing and updating scenarios?
How do we create “living artifacts” that allow us to test out as well as create action steps based on the scenarios?

6. Feedback Loops and Responsive Adjustments: Strategic foresight is dynamic, requiring ongoing refinement. Establishing feedback mechanisms allows for continual adjustment of foresight activities and strategies based on new information and outcomes.

What feedback mechanisms can be established to assess our foresight activities?
How can we ensure our strategies remain responsive to new foresight insights?
What processes are in place for adjusting our approach based on feedback?

7. Aligning Foresight with Strategic Execution: Integrating foresight into strategic execution ensures that long-term insights shape operational planning. This alignment is essential for a proactive and prepared approach to future challenges and opportunities.

How will foresight insights be translated into actionable strategies?
What steps will ensure foresight is integrated into operational planning?
How can we track and measure the impact of foresight on strategic execution?

8. Communication Strategies: Effective communication of foresight findings ensures understanding and engagement across the organization. A clear communication strategy is essential for fostering a shared vision of the future and coordinated action.

How do we effectively communicate foresight findings throughout the organization?
What communication channels and methods will be most effective?
How can we use foresight to foster organizational alignment and shared understanding and in particular in the context of change management and transformation?

9. Balancing Short-term and Long-term Perspectives: Balancing immediate operational needs with long-term foresight is challenging but essential. Organizations must develop tools and processes to ensure short-term decisions are informed by long-term insights.

How can we balance immediate business needs with long-term strategic foresight?
What tools or methods can help align short-term decisions with long-term insights?
How do we manage tensions between short-term and long-term objectives?

10. Evaluating External Partnerships: External partnerships can enhance an organization’s foresight capabilities, providing additional insights and expertise. Selecting and evaluating these partnerships carefully ensures they complement internal efforts.

How do we identify and select appropriate external partners for foresight activities?
What criteria will we use to evaluate the effectiveness of these partnerships?
How do we ensure external partnerships are aligned with our strategic objectives?

Of course, this overview is just the beginning. There are many more facets to strategic foresight, and each organization will have its unique perspective, shaped by distinct opportunities and challenges.

I encourage you to use this primer as a starting point to spark deeper conversations about strategic foresight within your organization. Let it be a catalyst for exploring how these concepts can be tailored to your specific context and goals.

If you find these insights resonate with you, or if you’re eager to delve further into how strategic foresight can transform your organization, I welcome the opportunity to connect and explore these possibilities together. Feel free to reach out for a more in-depth discussion.

Image Credit: Pixabay, Stefan Lindegaard (Manyone)

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Why Greedflation Must End and How Consumers Can Make It So

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GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Greedflation — an insidious blend of greed and inflation — has silently been eroding the purchasing power of consumers, escalating economic inequalities, and tarnishing the trust we place in markets and institutions. This practice, where companies exploit inflationary trends to excessively hike prices, detaches from economic principles and delves into unethical opportunism. While inflation in itself, when moderate, plays a functional role in the economy, greedflation skews the balance, enriching the few at the expense of many. Here’s why this must end and how consumers can play a pivotal role in its demise.

Why Greedflation Must End

Economic Inequity: Greedflation exacerbates economic disparities, widening the gap between the rich and the poor. While executives and shareholders prosper, average citizens struggle more to afford basic commodities. This vicious cycle traps lower-income families in a relentless financial squeeze, robbing them of opportunities for upward mobility.

Erosion of Trust: Trust is the bedrock of a functional economy. When consumers perceive that companies are exploiting inflationary pressures to rake in excess profits, trust in those companies and the broader market erodes. This lack of trust can lead to decreased consumer spending, hampering economic growth and stability.

Reduced Consumer Purchasing Power: As prices soar disproportionately, the real purchasing power of consumers dwindles. Households find themselves paying more for the same goods and services, which can lead to indebtedness and reduced quality of life. This reduction in purchasing power compounds the already significant challenges faced by middle and lower-income families.

Market Distortion: Greedflation distorts market dynamics by creating artificial price structures that don’t accurately reflect demand and supply. This conflation of legitimate inflationary factors with opportunistic price hikes undermines true market efficiency and the ability to allocate resources effectively.

Social Unrest: When people feel unfairly squeezed by relentless price hikes, social tension can build. Such unrest not only affects social harmony but can also lead to broader economic and political consequences. It’s a recipe for instability that we can ill afford in a complex global environment.

Identifying specific companies definitively engaging in “greedflation” can be complex, as it often involves nuanced economic analyses and data that may not always be readily available or clear-cut. However, certain sectors and companies have faced accusations and scrutiny over seemingly disproportionate price hikes, especially during periods of broader economic instability. Here are five examples based on public scrutiny and anecdotal evidence:

Amazon: During the COVID-19 pandemic, Amazon faced criticism for significant price increases on essential items such as hand sanitizers, masks, and other health-related products. While some of these price hikes were attributed to third-party sellers on the platform, the company was scrutinized for not doing enough to regulate prices during a global crisis.

Pharmaceutical Companies (e.g., Martin Shkreli’s Turing Pharmaceuticals): One of the most notorious cases of alleged greedflation in the pharmaceutical industry involved Turing Pharmaceuticals, where the price of Daraprim, a life-saving medication, was increased by over 5,000% overnight under the leadership of Martin Shkreli. This incident highlighted how companies could exploit patent protections and market monopolies to drastically inflate prices unethically.

Oil Companies (e.g., ExxonMobil, Chevron): Oil giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron have been accused of leveraging geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions to raise gas prices disproportionately, thereby generating record profits during periods when consumers are already struggling with inflationary pressures.

Grocery Retailers (e.g., Kroger, Albertsons): Major grocery chains like Kroger and Albertsons have faced allegations of increasing food prices beyond what could be justified by supply chain issues and general inflation. With essential goods being a critical part of everyday life, such actions appear particularly exploitative.

Telecom Companies (e.g., Comcast, AT&T): Telecom giants such as Comcast and AT&T have been criticized for raising prices on internet and cable services, despite relatively stable or reduced operational costs due to advancements in technology. Consumers often feel trapped because of limited competition in many areas.

While these examples showcase sectors and companies that have faced scrutiny, it’s important to note that conclusive evidence of greedflation can be difficult to establish due to the complexity of market forces and individual company strategies. This underscores the need for informed consumer activism to hold companies accountable.

How Consumers Can Help End Greedflation

Shop Smarter: Consumers wield significant power through their purchasing decisions. By being more discerning and opting for alternatives when prices seem unjustifiably high, we can signal to corporations that unethical pricing won’t be rewarded. Supporting smaller, local businesses and cooperatives can also help counterbalance big players who may indulge in greedflation.

Promote Transparency: Demand greater transparency from companies about their pricing strategies. When transparency becomes a social norm, it’s harder for businesses to hide behind inflated prices. Use social media and other platforms to press for clarity and accountability.

Support Policies for Market Oversight: Advocate for stronger regulatory frameworks and more stringent oversight bodies that can analyze and address unethical pricing practices. By supporting politicians and policies that prioritize consumer protection and market fairness, individuals can influence systemic change.

Educate and Mobilize: Consumer education is crucial. Share knowledge and resources about how to spot and combat greedflation. Community groups, educational institutions, and social networks can serve as platforms for educating others about prudent consumer practices.

Leverage Collective Bargaining Power: Form or join consumer advocacy groups that can collectively negotiate for fair prices and better market practices. Unified consumer voices can be a powerful force for change, pushing corporations to rethink their pricing strategies.

Conclusion

The end of greedflation is not just an economic imperative but a moral one. It’s about creating a fairer society where prosperity is shared more equitably, trust is maintained, and economic stability is preserved. Consumers hold immense power as the primary drivers of market forces. By making informed, conscious choices and demanding greater accountability, we can collectively put an end to greedflation and forge a more just economic future.

As an independent thinker and human-centered innovation and transformation thought leader, I firmly believe in the power of consumers to act as agents of change. Together, let’s take that necessary step to ensure markets function with integrity, fairness, and a sense of shared prosperity.

#EndGreedflation #ConsumerPower #EconomicJustice

Image credit: Unsplash

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Predicting Unintended Consequences

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The 93% Rule

Predicting Unintended Consequences

GUEST POST from Robyn Bolton

Unintended consequences often catch us off guard despite their predictability. The moment they occur, we gasp in shock, shake our heads, and look at each other in wide-eyed horror at this thing that just happened that we could never ever ever have anticipated.

Yet, when (if) we do an After-Action Review, we often realize that these consequences were not entirely unforeseeable. In fact, had we anticipated them, we might have made different decisions.

The Unintended Consequences of Spreadsheets

In 1800 BCE, ancient Babylonians started recording data by scratching grids and columns onto clay tablets, and the spreadsheet was born. Over the millennia, we went from clay tablets to papyrus to parchment and then paper.

Fast forward to 1963 when R. Brian Walsh of Marquette University ported the Business Computer Language (BCL) program to an IBM 7040, and electronic spreadsheets became a reality. The introduction of VisiCalc by Apple in 1979 revolutionized spreadsheet capabilities, followed by Lotus 123 and Microsoft Excel. Today, spreadsheets are ubiquitous in education, business operations, financial markets, budgeting, and even personal inventories.

Unintended yet predictable consequences

While spreadsheets have undoubtedly enhanced efficiency and accuracy compared to traditional methods like clay tablets or hand-drawn tables on parchment, their ease of use has inadvertently led to complacency.

We stopped engaging in a multi-millennial habit of discussing, debating, and deciding before making a spreadsheet. We started flippantly asking people to create spreadsheets and providing little, if any, guidance because “it’s easy to make changes and run scenarios.”

This shift resulted in a reliance on automated models and a lack of shared assumptions or analytical rigor in decision-making processes.

Of course, these behaviors were never intended. They were, however, very predictable.

93% of Human Behavior is predictable .

Research spanning disciplines as varied as network scientists, anthropology, neuropsychology, and paleontology shines a light on how truly predictable we are.

Here are some examples:

Emotions before Reason: Ask someone if they make decisions based on their motivations, aspirations, and fears and use data to justify the decisions, and they’ll tell you no. Ask them the last time someone else made a decision that “made no sense,” and you’ll listen to a long list of examples.

Small gains now are better than big gains later: Thoughtfully planning before using solutions like spreadsheets, word processing, email, and instant messaging could save us time at work and help us get home 30 minutes earlier or work a few hours less on the weekend. But saving a few seconds now by brain-dumping into Word, setting up a “flexible” spreadsheet, and firing off a text feels much better.

Confidence > Realism: We’ve all been in meetings where the loudest voice or the most senior person’s opinion carried the day. As we follow their lead, we ignore signs that we’re wrong and explain away unexpected and foreboding outcomes until we either wake up to our mistakes or adjust to our new circumstances.

Predict the 93%. Create for the 7%

Acknowledging the predictability of human behavior is not an endorsement of stereotypes but a recognition of our innate cognitive processes. By incorporating this understanding into design, innovation, and decision-making processes, we better anticipate potential outcomes and mitigate unintended consequences.

While 93% of human behavior may follow predictable patterns rooted in evolutionary instincts, focusing on the remaining 7% allows for the exploration of unique behaviors and novel solutions. By embracing both aspects of human nature, we can navigate challenges more effectively and anticipate a broader range of outcomes in our endeavors, leading to informed decision-making and value creation.

Now, if I could only get Excel to stop auto-converting numbers into date/time format.

Image credit: Pixabay

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4 Simple Steps to Becoming Your Own Futurist

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An Introduction to the FutureHacking™ methodology

FutureHacking Foresight and Futurist Primer

by Braden Kelley

The starting point for becoming your own futurist is of course to first understand what futurology (or a futurist) is. Then we must also understand what strategic and market foresight are as well.

What is Futurology (or a Futurist)?

Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.

Source: Wikipedia

What are Strategic and Market Foresight?

Strategic Foresight is about combining methods of futures work with those of strategic management. It is about understanding upcoming external changes in relation to internal capabilities and drivers.
Market Foresight is about the consideration of possible and probable futures in the organization’s relevant business environment, and about identifying new opportunities in that space.

Source: Aalto University

Now we are ready to look at the four simple, but powerful steps to becoming your own futurist using the FutureHacking™ methodology:

STEP ONE: Picking the Signals That Matter

FutureSignals™ Radar & NowBuilder™ Canvas

Identify up to the eight most critical signals to monitor or amplify in order to look back, reach an innovation goal, describe them and capture for each signal what the status quo, small change and big change scenarios might look like – and which scenario is most likely.

STEP TWO: Mapping Signal Evolution

FutureSignals™ Radar Summary & Tracking

Summarize the most likely scenarios for up to the eight most critical signals along with their descriptions and whether you plan to monitor or amplify each. Use a tracking sheet to record changes in the signal over time – revisit and re-prioritize as needed.

STEP THREE: Choosing the Possible, Probable and Preferable Future

FutureCanvas™ & Picker (macro view)

Leveraging your FutureSignals™ summary, create a headline for an imagined future. Then capture the problems that have been solved, how society has changed, the new problems that may now exist and what we must do to shape the future. Rinse and Repeat.

STEP FOUR: Making Your Preferable Future a Reality

FutureSignals™ & FutureCanvas™ Action Plans (micro)

Leveraging your FutureSignals™ summary, create a headline for an imagined future. Then capture the key signals related to this headline, how the customer is changing and how the company must change in response.

These four simple steps to becoming your own futurist are accelerated by adopting the 20 new tools of the Futurehacking™ methodology that I have created.

“FutureHacking™ is the art and science of getting to the future first.”

It’s a methodology I’ve created that contains a suite of simple, but powerful tools at its core that will enable you to be your own futurist.

FutureHacking™ is designed to make foresight and futurology accessible to the average business professional.

Prototyping the Future

FutureHacking™ is a revolutionary approach that empowers cross-functional leadership teams to visually prototype the future and collaboratively create the roadmap and guideposts for manifesting your preferred, possible future.

FutureHacking Tool Collection

Why is Investing in Futures Research (or a Futurist) important?

Every stakeholder-responsible organization is compelled to realize its vision, execute its strategy, and achieve its goals – indefinitely. But, the future is uncertain. We cannot extrapolate that what has made an organization successful this year or last year will make it succeed in future years. Responsible organizations must invest in understanding the possible futures and realizing their preferable future. FutureHacking™ makes this investment much easier, cheaper and faster – helping you get to the future first.

“FutureHacking™ tools help you facilitate the future.”

Click the image to download a PDF flipbook:

Two Ways to Join the FutureHacking™ Ecosystem

Data and trend research partners to create service offerings as an input into the FutureSignals™ component
Futurists, consulting partners, and technology providers (interactive whiteboarding, etc.) to get FutureHacking™ certified and profit from the delivery of services to help people leverage the FutureSignals™, NowBuilder™ and FutureCanvas™ tools

One Way to Connect and Succeed

Contact me if you think you have a compelling partnership value proposition and subscribe to my newsletter below to find out when the certification program and facilitated off-site offerings are launched!

Image credit: Pixabay

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What Pundits Always Get Wrong About the Future

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What Pundits Always Get Wrong About the Future

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Peter Thiel likes to point out that we wanted flying cars, but got 140 characters instead. He’s only partly right. For decades futuristic visions showed everyday families zipping around in flying cars and it’s true that even today we’re still stuck on the ground. Yet that’s not because we’re unable to build one. In fact the first was invented in 1934.

The problem is not so much with engineering, but economics, safety and convenience. We could build a flying car if we wanted to, but to make one that can compete with regular cars is another matter entirely. Besides, in many ways, 140 characters are better than a flying car. Cars only let us travel around town, the Internet helps us span the globe.

That has created far more value than a flying car ever could. We often fail to predict the future accurately because we don’t account for our capacity to surprise ourselves, to see new possibilities and take new directions. We interact with each other, collaborate and change our priorities. The future that we predict is never as exciting as the one we eventually create.

1. The Future Will Not Look Like The Past

We tend to predict the future by extrapolating from the present. So if we invent a car and then an airplane, it only seems natural that we can combine the two. If family has a car, then having one that flies can seem like a logical next step. We don’t look at a car and dream up, say, a computer. So in 1934, we dreamed of flying cars, but not computers.

It’s not just optimists that fall prey to this fundamental error, but pessimists too. In Homo Deus, author and historian Yuval Noah Harari points to several studies that show that human jobs are being replaced by machines. He then paints a dystopian picture. “Humans might become militarily and economically useless,” he writes. Yeesh!

Yet the picture is not as dark as it may seem. Consider the retail apocalypse. Over the past few years, we’ve seen an unprecedented number of retail store closings. Those jobs are gone and they’re not coming back. You can imagine thousands of retail employees sitting at home, wondering how to pay their bills, just as Harari predicts.

Yet economist Michael Mandel argues that the data tell a very different story. First, he shows that the jobs gained from e-commerce far outstrip those lost from traditional retail. Second, he points out that the total e-commerce sector, including lower-wage fulfillment centers, has an average wage of $21.13 per hour, which is 27 percent higher than the $16.65 that the average worker in traditional retail earns.

So not only are more people working, they are taking home more money too. Not only is the retail apocalypse not a tragedy, it’s somewhat of a blessing.

2. The Next Big Thing Always Starts Out Looking Like Nothing At All

Every technology eventually hits theoretical limits. Buy a computer today and you’ll find that the technical specifications are much like they were five years ago. When a new generation of iPhones comes out these days, reviewers tout the camera rather than the processor speed. The truth is that Moore’s law is effectively over.

That seems tragic, because our ability to exponentially increase the number of transistors that we can squeeze onto a silicon wafer has driven technological advancement over the past few decades. Every 18 months or so, a new generation of chips has come out and opened up new possibilities that entrepreneurs have turned into exciting new businesses.

What will we do now?

Yet there’s no real need to worry. There is no 11th commandment that says, “Thou shalt compute with ones and zeros” and the end of Moore’s law will give way to newer, more powerful technologies, like quantum and neuromorphic computing. These are still in their nascent stage and may not have an impact for at least five to ten years, but will likely power the future for decades to come.

The truth is that the next big thing always starts out looking like nothing at all. Einstein never thought that his work would have a practical impact during his lifetime. When Alexander Fleming first discovered penicillin, nobody noticed. In much the same way, the future is not digital. So what? It will be even better!

3. It’s Ecosystems, Not Inventions, That Drive The Future

When the first automobiles came to market, they were called “horseless carriages” because that’s what everyone knew and was familiar with. So it seemed logical that people would use them much like they used horses, to take the occasional trip into town and to work in the fields. Yet it didn’t turn out that way, because driving a car is nothing like riding a horse.

So first people started taking “Sunday drives” to relax and see family and friends, something that would be too tiring to do regularly on a horse. Gas stations and paved roads changed how products were distributed and factories moved from cities in the north, close to customers, to small towns in the south, where land and labor were cheaper.

As the ability to travel increased, people started moving out of cities and into suburbs. When consumers could easily load a week’s worth of groceries into their cars, corner stores gave way to supermarkets and, eventually, shopping malls. The automobile changed a lot more than simply how we got from place to place. It changed our way of life in ways that were impossible to predict.

Look at other significant technologies, such as electricity and computers, and you find a similar story. It’s ecosystems, rather than inventions, that drive the future.

4. We Can Only Validate Patterns Going Forward

G. H. Hardy once wrote that, “a mathematician, like a painter or poet, is a maker of patterns. If his patterns are more permanent than theirs, it is because they are made with ideas.” Futurists often work the same way, identifying patterns in the past and present, then extrapolating them into the future. Yet there is a substantive difference between patterns that we consider to be preordained and those that are to be discovered.

Think about Steve Jobs and Apple for a minute and you will probably recognize the pattern and assume I misspelled the name of his iconic company by forgetting to include the “e” at the end. But I could have just have easily been about to describe an “Applet” he designed for the iPhone or some connection between Jobs and Appleton WI, a small town outside Green Bay.

The point is that we can only validate patterns going forward, never backward. That, in essence, is what Steve Blank means when he says that business plans rarely survive first contact with customers and why his ideas about lean startups are changing the world. We need to be careful about the patterns we think we see. Some are meaningful. Others are not.

The problem with patterns is that future is something we create, not some preordained plan that we are beholden to. The things we create often become inflection points and change our course. That may frustrate the futurists, but it’s what makes life exciting for the rest of us.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog and previously appeared on Inc.com
— Image credit: Pixabay

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Thinking Like a Futurist

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Thinking Like A Futurist

GUEST POST from Ayelet Baron

A CEO’s recent request for a workshop on Thinking Like a Futurist got me thinking. We all have the power to engage with the unknown and be active players in shaping our future.

Imagine being invited to attend an interactive workshop where you bring an item—real or conceptual—that might shape life two decades from now. What’s your “future artifact”?

Thinking like a futurist is not a guessing game. We become navigators with a vast imagination and curiosity. We observe, consider possible scenarios, and ask what it means for us. It’s about connecting today’s reality with a horizon full of opportunities; not problems to be solved.

We do more than just talk about the future. We connect with people from different backgrounds to get a full view of what’s coming. The goal is to highlight futures that make us want to be a part of them right away.

Being a futurist isn’t just about thinking; we spark action. We highlight opportunities that need our focus now, setting the stage for a healthy future for everyone. We lead in a way that combines tech with our human side. First comes our purpose, and the rest falls into place.

If life doesn’t improve for people, it won’t be because our machines are too smart or not smart enough. It will be because we quit dreaming big. If we ever stop imagining and creating, then we’re no different from machines.

Navigators of Possibilities

Business landscapes are evolving at a dizzying pace. The old playbooks no longer work and structures are falling apart. This is especially true when tech and systems mess with our mental health and keep unconscious leaders in place.

The way forward? Craft vibrant visions of the future and dive headfirst into experimentation. We’re not confined to notions of success or failure; it’s about exploring what comes to life when ideas turn into tangible creations that suppprt our wellbeing.

Being a futurist helps you see the big picture. Looking at many kinds of work and gathering ideas makes our view of the future richer. Waiting to see what the future brings? That’s like missing out on life.

We can take charge. When we know different ways the future could go, we can change course. Even if something unexpected happens, we’re ready for playing with the mystery of the unknown.

So why not envision a world where we’re all futurists? A world where we don’t dwell in the past but engage fully with the present, piloting new possibilities right here, right now.

Imagination is our window into the future. Advancing the edge of possibility means that someday, with our contributions, these visions of the future can become a reality.

Maybe each one of us in not only an architect of the future but also is here to be an architect of our own humanity.

Architects shape more than just buildings; they shape experiences. They create parks that invite community gatherings, libraries that become havens for thought, and community centers that encourage social bonds.

As an architect of humanity, we know what’s healthy and unhealthy for us so we create a healthy life.

Let’s focus on creating a future that nurtures our humanity, supports our values, and deepens our connections with each other. Opening doors wide to our future is crucial to thinking like a futurist.

Think a Futurist could help your organization thrive? Reach out to dive deeper into possibilities …

First published, 9.21.23 Daily Trek.

Image credit: Pexels

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Navigating the Unpredictable Terrain of Modern Business

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Shifting Sands

Navigating the Unpredictable Terrain of Modern Business

GUEST POST from Teresa Spangler

If you ask me, ‘So what is your business model?’ Our business model’s always about shifting to higher value opportunities. Ginni Rometty

Navigating the Unpredictable Terrain of Modern Business

The adage “a rolling stone gathers no moss” takes on a new dimension in an ever-evolving world. In the corporate jungle, we can’t afford the luxury of simply rolling ahead aimlessly. We’re not just stones; captains steering ships through stormy seas, constantly adjusting our sails amidst changing winds and turbulent waters. Balancing short-term urgencies with long-term visions is an art and science in itself. How do I transition from an overwhelmed executive to a masterful strategist? Dive in with me, and let’s chart this exhilarating course together.

Welcome to the Quicksand!

Business landscapes today are as unpredictable as they are dynamic. With swift technological leaps, fluctuating consumer appetites, and relentless competition, it often feels like you’re playing chess on a board that’s constantly reshaping itself. Yet, that sinking sensation can transform into a firm foothold with the right strategies and mindset. Let’s unravel the secrets:

1. Turn into Business Chameleons

Agility is the still the new cool. Embrace it. An agile organization is like a well-oiled transformer, ready to change form and function with market trends. Bill Gates is known for being a long time agile leader. “Success today requires the agility and drive to rethink, reinvigorate, react, and reinvent.” In the face of regenerative AI and so many technological advances this quote has never been truer! Transforming your organization into business chameleon leaders could have significant benefits. You’re rarely left behind and always ready to grab new opportunities.

How to:

Promote a culture of flexibility: Encourage the “Yes, we can!” spirit.
Make innovation your best friend: Regular brainstorming sessions, innovation labs, or ‘Shark Tank’ style pitches can be fantastic.
Flex your strategies: Don’t stick to one path like a GPS with a weak signal. Adapt, change, and grow.

2. Balancing Act with Objectives

Picture this: You’re walking a tightrope, balancing a feather in one hand (short-term goal) and a bowling ball (long-term goal) in the other. Sounds tough? This scenario may be! So let’s come down to steadier grounds. Balancing short and long-term goals is an art and a science.

Strategic Planning and Prioritization

o Planning is at the core of balancing short and long-term goals. It involves setting clear, measurable goals and creating a roadmap.

o Begin with your long-term goals (3-5 years), and then break them down into shorter-term goals (1 year, quarterly, monthly). This way, you create a clear path towards your long-term vision.

o Prioritize your goals based on their impact on your long-term objectives. This ensures you’re always working towards your big picture goals, even while tackling immediate tasks.

Flexible Resource Allocation

o A flexible resource allocation strategy is key to balancing short and long-term goals.

o Allocate resources (time, money, staff) to both short-term projects and long-term initiatives.

o However, remain flexible and ready to reallocate resources as needed. For instance, you may temporarily divert more resources if a short-term opportunity arises that could greatly benefit the business.

Regular Progress Reviews

o Regularly reviewing progress towards your goals is crucial.

o Set specific milestones for both short-term and long-term goals. This will allow you to track progress and make necessary adjustments.

o If you find you’re consistently missing short-term goals due to focusing too much on the long-term (or vice versa), it’s a sign that you need to reassess your balance and possibly adjust your strategy.

Balancing short-term and long-term goals is an ongoing process. It requires strategic planning, flexible resource allocation, and regular progress reviews. By employing these strategies, you can ensure your business stays focused on the present while keeping an eye on the future.

Benefits:

Ensures survival today (short-term) and success tomorrow (long-term).
Enhances value for stakeholders.
Builds resilience in the organization.

Arm Yourself with Tools and Techniques

Like a Swiss army knife, these tools can get you out of any sticky situation:

Scenario Planning: Picture yourself as a fortune teller. Create different future scenarios based on market trends. Plan your strategies accordingly.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs): These are your compasses in the business wilderness. They help you stay on track with both short and long-term goals.
Regular Strategy Reviews: Like annual medical check-ups, regular strategy reviews ensure your business is in good health and shape.
Stakeholder Engagement: This is not just a buzzword. Engage employees, customers, shareholders, etc. They provide valuable insights and help align business objectives.

3. Embracing Technological Disruption

In the business world, technology is the game-changer, the grand maestro orchestrating a symphony of innovation. For executives, it’s not just about staying up-to-date with the latest tech; it’s about anticipating the next ‘big thing’ and leveraging it to get an edge.

How to:

Build an innovation-focused IT team: Encourage them to explore emerging tech trends that can revolutionize your business.
Invest in training: Ensure your team has the skills to handle new technology.

Benefits:

Improved operational efficiency.
Greater customer satisfaction through personalized experiences.
Competitive advantage in the market.

4. Expansion into New Markets

Growing businesses often look to expand into new markets – it’s like exploring uncharted territories. It’s challenging but can be incredibly rewarding.

How to:

Research extensively: Understand the new market’s dynamics, customer behaviors, and potential competitors.
Adapt your product/service: Modify your offerings to cater to the needs of the new market.

Benefits:

Diversification of revenue streams.
Increased brand recognition and business growth.

5. Building Strategic Partnerships

Think of it as having a dance partner to help you waltz through the shifting sands. Strategic partnerships can provide resources, technology, or market access you don’t currently have.

How to:

Identify potential partners: Look for companies that complement your business and share your values.
Clearly define roles and objectives: Make sure both parties understand what they’re bringing to the table and what they expect in return.

Benefits:

Access to new resources, technology, or markets.
Shared risks and costs.

6. Customer-centric Approach

In a world where the customer is king, ignoring their needs is like shooting yourself in the foot. With every market shift, customer preferences change. It’s important to listen, learn, and adapt accordingly.

How to:

Gather feedback: Use surveys, interviews, or focus groups to understand your customer’s needs.
Incorporate feedback: Modify your products or services based on the insights gathered.

Benefits:

Increased customer loyalty and satisfaction.
Greater market share and profitability.

7. Sustainable Business Practices

The world is waking up to the importance of sustainability. And businesses are no different. Incorporating sustainable practices can help businesses stand out and thrive amidst market shifts.

How to:

Go green: Implement eco-friendly practices in your business operations.
Promote sustainability: Ensure that your business partners, suppliers, and customers know about your commitment to sustainability.

Benefits:

Enhanced brand image and reputation.
Attracting conscious consumers and, thus, increasing market share.

8. Effective Change Management

Change is scary. It’s the boogeyman under the business bed. But as the market shifts, change is inevitable. The key is managing it effectively so your business can adapt and your team is on board.

How to:

Communicate: Let your team know about upcoming changes and how it impacts them.
Train and support: Provide the necessary training and support to help your team adapt to the changes.

Benefits:

Smooth transition during periods of change.
Maintaining high morale and productivity levels in your team.

REFRESHER ON A FEW KNOWN CASE STUDIES:

Case Study: The Phoenix Rises

Remember Blockbuster? They were the big kid on the block in video rentals. Then, along came a little-known company called Netflix. Blockbuster didn’t adapt quickly, and we know how that story ends. Netflix, on the other hand, has continually adapted. They went from mailing DVDs to streaming, licensing content, and creating their own. It’s been quite the journey from the ‘little engine that could’ to the ‘big engine that did.’

Case Study: The Rise, Fall, and Rise Again of LEGO

LEGO, a beloved brand for many of us growing up, hit a wall in the early 2000s. Competition from video games and a lack of product focus almost led to their downfall. But they didn’t give up. LEGO turned things around by aligning their short-term and long-term goals, returning to their core product, and expanding into new ventures like movies and video games. It’s a testament to the fact that even when the sands shift beneath your feet, you can build a castle with the right strategies!

Case Study: The Digital Transformation of Domino’s Pizza

Once upon a time, Domino’s Pizza was just another pizza delivery company. But when online ordering began to gain traction, they seized the opportunity. They invested in their online ordering system and mobile app and embraced social media marketing. Today, Domino’s is seen as a tech-savvy pizza company. Their share price skyrocketed, and they’re now stiffly competing with Pizza Hut.

Case Study: Starbucks’ Embrace of Sustainability

Starbucks, one of the world’s largest coffee chains, took notice of the growing trend toward sustainability and decided to make a change. They’ve committed to reducing their environmental impact, from sustainable sourcing of their coffee to reducing waste. This commitment has helped Starbucks enhance its brand image and cater to environmentally conscious consumers.

Plazabridge Group Case Studies

The journey through the shifting sands of market change is daunting yet exciting. The real magic happens when we, as executives, adapt to these changes and ensure that our objectives align.

So, as you put on your boots to trudge through the sands, remember to keep your compass (goals) in hand, your team by your side, and your eyes on the horizon. And remember, the journey through the shifting sands is always easier when you’re not dragging your feet. So, let’s adapt, align, and conquer!

EMPLOYEES THE ENGINE TO YOUR BUSINESS

Let’s not forget, EMPLOYEES are not just cogs in the wheel. They’re the engine of your business. Engaging them in the efforts is like adding rocket fuel to your engine. They understand the ground realities, customer pain points, and operational hurdles. By involving them in decision-making, you benefit from their insights and build a more committed workforce. As the saying goes, “Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.”

Staff engagement is like a secret weapon for businesses. It’s about creating an environment where employees feel valued, heard, and motivated to contribute their best. Here’s how you can tap into this powerful resource:

How to:

Encourage feedback: Let your team know their opinions matter. Whether through suggestion boxes, regular team meetings, or anonymous surveys, create channels for them to share their thoughts.
Involve them in decision-making: When making decisions that affect your team, include them. It could be through brainstorming sessions or by assigning them to task forces.
Recognize and reward: Appreciate the hard work and celebrate the wins. It could be a simple ‘thank you’ note or an employee of the month award. Recognition goes a long way in boosting morale and motivation.

Benefits:

Increased productivity: Employees who feel engaged and valued will likely be more productive.
Reduced turnover: Engaged employees are likelier to stick around, reducing the costs and disruptions associated with high staff turnover.
Better decision-making: By tapping into your team’s insights, you can make better-informed decisions.
Enhanced customer service: Happy employees often lead to happy customers. When your team is engaged, they’re more likely to deliver superior customer service.

So, there you have it, visionary leaders! An eight-step playbook to help you navigate the shifting sands of market changes. From being agile to aligning your goals, embracing technology to involving your team – it’s all about staying adaptable. As we journey through the shifting sands together, remember – it’s not just about surviving the change. It’s about thriving amidst it and becoming stronger on the other side. Now, let’s get out there and conquer those sands!

Navigating through the ever-shifting business sands can feel like being in constant flux. But as we’ve seen, by becoming agile, balancing objectives, embracing technological disruption, expanding into new markets, and building strategic partnerships, businesses don’t just survive but thrive. Yes, we all know, in the world of business, change is the only constant. With greater adaptability and alignment of goals, you can ride the waves of change to success. So, roll up your sleeves and get ready to dive into the dunes!

Image credit: Unsplash

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