Tag Archives: futures research

4 Simple Steps to Becoming Your Own Futurist

An Introduction to the FutureHacking™ methodology

FutureHacking Foresight and Futurist Primer

by Braden Kelley

The starting point for becoming your own futurist is of course to first understand what futurology (or a futurist) is. Then we must also understand what strategic and market foresight are as well.

What is Futurology (or a Futurist)?

  • Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.

Source: Wikipedia

What are Strategic and Market Foresight?

  • Strategic Foresight is about combining methods of futures work with those of strategic management. It is about understanding upcoming external changes in relation to internal capabilities and drivers.
  • Market Foresight is about the consideration of possible and probable futures in the organization’s relevant business environment, and about identifying new opportunities in that space.

Source: Aalto University

Now we are ready to look at the four simple, but powerful steps to becoming your own futurist using the FutureHacking™ methodology:

STEP ONE: Picking the Signals That Matter

FutureSignals™ Radar & NowBuilder™ Canvas

  • Identify up to the eight most critical signals to monitor or amplify in order to look back, reach an innovation goal, describe them and capture for each signal what the status quo, small change and big change scenarios might look like – and which scenario is most likely.

STEP TWO: Mapping Signal Evolution

FutureSignals™ Radar Summary & Tracking

  • Summarize the most likely scenarios for up to the eight most critical signals along with their descriptions and whether you plan to monitor or amplify each. Use a tracking sheet to record changes in the signal over time – revisit and re-prioritize as needed.

STEP THREE: Choosing the Possible, Probable and Preferable Future

FutureCanvas™ & Picker (macro view)

  • Leveraging your FutureSignals™ summary, create a headline for an imagined future. Then capture the problems that have been solved, how society has changed, the new problems that may now exist and what we must do to shape the future. Rinse and Repeat.

STEP FOUR: Making Your Preferable Future a Reality

FutureSignals™ & FutureCanvas™ Action Plans (micro)

  • Leveraging your FutureSignals™ summary, create a headline for an imagined future. Then capture the key signals related to this headline, how the customer is changing and how the company must change in response.

These four simple steps to becoming your own futurist are accelerated by adopting the 20 new tools of the Futurehacking™ methodology that I have created.

“FutureHacking™ is the art and science of getting to the future first.”

It’s a methodology I’ve created that contains a suite of simple, but powerful tools at its core that will enable you to be your own futurist.

FutureHacking™ is designed to make foresight and futurology accessible to the average business professional.

Prototyping the Future

FutureHacking™ is a revolutionary approach that empowers cross-functional leadership teams to visually prototype the future and collaboratively create the roadmap and guideposts for manifesting your preferred, possible future.

FutureHacking Tool Collection

Why is Investing in Futures Research (or a Futurist) important?

  • Every stakeholder-responsible organization is compelled to realize its vision, execute its strategy, and achieve its goals – indefinitely. But, the future is uncertain. We cannot extrapolate that what has made an organization successful this year or last year will make it succeed in future years. Responsible organizations must invest in understanding the possible futures and realizing their preferable future. FutureHacking™ makes this investment much easier, cheaper and faster – helping you get to the future first.

“FutureHacking™ tools help you facilitate the future.”

Click the image to download a PDF flipbook:

Two Ways to Join the FutureHacking™ Ecosystem

  • Data and trend research partners to create service offerings as an input into the FutureSignals™ component
  • Futurists, consulting partners, and technology providers (interactive whiteboarding, etc.) to get FutureHacking™ certified and profit from the delivery of services to help people leverage the FutureSignals™, NowBuilder™ and FutureCanvas™ tools

One Way to Connect and Succeed

Contact me if you think you have a compelling partnership value proposition and subscribe to my newsletter below to find out when the certification program and facilitated off-site offerings are launched!

Image credit: Pixabay

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Latest Interview with the What’s Next? Podcast

Latest Interview with the What's Next? Podcast

I recently had the opportunity to sit down with Shannon Phillips and Tristan Ham of the What’s Next? Podcast, about altering your mindset to become future-focused and the impact this can have on your business.

We had the opportunity to discuss the links between curiosity, imagination and creativity. And how to bring urgency to imagination leveraging among other things – The Nine Innovation Roles.

From there we explore how imagination can atrophy in an organization, how our educational and corporate institutions fail us and how we can bring back imagination and innovation through world building.

Some of the elements of the conversation came from things I have incorporated into a set of tools designed to help anyone be a futurist called FutureHacking™, which is designed to take some of the mystery out of futures research and foresight, and help you get to the future first!

But most importantly, we spoke about how a futurist is not the same as a fortune teller.

I think you’ll enjoy the conversation!

Here is the Spotify version of my visit with the What’s Next? podcast:

If you’d like to sign up to learn more about my new FutureHacking™ methodology and set of tools, go here.


Accelerate your change and transformation success

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The 10 Key Components of Future Studies

The 10 Key Components of Future Studies

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Smart organizations make an investment in the pursuit of future studies as part of their innovation activities. This investment is critical to the ongoing success of an organization because the wants and needs of customers change over time along with what’s possible from a technological, economical, and societal perspective. But many don’t know what future studies or futurology are or choose to focus on short-term profits over long-term viability and success. If you’re not clear on what future studies is, here are ten key components of the science of studying the future:

  1. Scenario Planning: This involves looking at different possible outcomes and understanding the implications of each.
  2. Trend Analysis: This involves looking at the trends in various areas such as politics, technology, and the environment.
  3. Forecasting: This uses models, data, and historical information to predict future events.
  4. Impact Assessment: This involves understanding the potential impact of changes in the environment, society and technology.
  5. System Dynamics: This involves understanding the relationships between different elements of a system and how they might interact and evolve in the future.
  6. Risk Analysis: This involves assessing the potential risks associated with different scenarios.
  7. Trend Monitoring: This involves continuously monitoring trends and changes in the environment, society, and technology.
  8. Technology Assessment: This involves understanding the implications of new technologies and how they might shape the future.
  9. Social Analysis: This involves understanding the social, political, and economic forces that shape our world.
  10. Futures Research: This involves researching and exploring potential futures to better prepare for them.

Breaking down the somewhat ephemeral topic of future studies into these subcomponents can make it not only more tangible, but also more feasible to fund and execute these activities in support of your innovation activities and the continuous renewal of both the relevance and resonance of your organization with its customers.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pexels

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Six Keys to Successful Futures Research

Six Keys to Successful Futures Research

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Futures research is an essential part of strategic planning and decision-making in a variety of industries. It involves examining the “big picture” to anticipate and prepare for potential trends, events, and opportunities in the future. As such, it requires a deep understanding of current events and the ability to develop creative strategies to capitalize on them. Here are some key tips for doing great futures research.

1. Develop a broad knowledge base. To be successful in futures research, you need to be aware of a wide range of topics and emerging trends. This means staying up to date on current events, industry news, and technological developments. It also means being curious and exploring different ideas and perspectives.

2. Think critically. Great futures research involves not only recognizing current trends, but also predicting how they may change and evolve over time. This requires critical thinking to analyze data and make informed predictions about the future.

3. Look for patterns. Patterns can provide valuable insights into the future. By recognizing patterns in past events, you can gain a better understanding of potential future outcomes.

4. Utilize data. Data is an essential tool for futures research. By utilizing data-driven analytics and modeling, you can gain a better understanding of how current trends may shape the future.

5. Leverage technology. Technology can be a powerful tool for futures research. By leveraging new technologies and tools, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, you can gain a more detailed view of the future.

6. Be creative. Creative problem solving is essential for great futures research. Think outside the box to identify potential opportunities and develop creative strategies to capitalize on them.

By following these tips, you can become a great futures researcher. With a deep understanding of current events, critical thinking skills, an eye for patterns, a data-driven approach, technological savvy, and creative problem solving, you can gain a unique and valuable perspective on the future.

Bottom line: Futures research is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futures research themselves.

Image credit: Pixabay

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What is Futures Research?

What is Futures Research?

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Futures research, also known as foresight, is the study of global trends and the development of plans for the future. It involves the analysis of current and emerging trends, the identification of potential threats and opportunities, and the development of strategies to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate potential threats. Futures research is an interdisciplinary field of study that takes into account social and technological trends, economic and political forces, and the influence of global events and forces.

The goal of futures research is to develop an understanding of the future and to devise a strategy to manage it. This strategy can include the development of new products, services, and business models, as well as the implementation of policies and initiatives that will shape the future of our society. Futures research is a key component of any organization’s strategic planning process, as it provides a framework for decision-making that helps to ensure the organization’s long-term success.

Futures research is typically conducted using a variety of methodologies, including scenario planning, trend analysis, and predictive modeling. Scenario planning involves the development of multiple alternative futures, each of which is based on a different set of assumptions about the future. Trend analysis is the process of identifying and analyzing trends in the present and extrapolating them into the future. Predictive modeling is the process of using mathematical models and simulations to predict future events and outcomes.

Futures research is a rapidly growing field of study with a wide range of applications. It is becoming increasingly important for organizations to remain competitive in the future and to be prepared for the changes and challenges that may come their way. By understanding the future and developing strategies to manage it, organizations can ensure their long-term success.

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Futures Research and the Emergence of New Technologies

Futures Research and the Emergence of New Technologies

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Advancements in technology have always played a pivotal role in shaping our future. From the wheel to the internet, innovations have revolutionized the way we live, work, and interact with the world. However, understanding the trajectory of technological advancements is no easy task. This is where futures research comes into play. Futures research is the systematic study of the future to better inform decision-making in the present. By analyzing trends, considering alternative scenarios, and forecasting potential outcomes, futures research helps us navigate the complexities of the unknown. In this article, we explore the power of futures research in predicting the emergence of new technologies through two case study examples.

Case Study 1: Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as one of the most transformative technologies of the 21st century. It is revolutionizing industries and reshaping our daily lives. However, the development and widespread adoption of AI were not merely strokes of luck. Futurists and researchers began exploring the possibilities of AI decades before it became a reality.

In the 1950s, the field of cybernetics paved the way for AI research. Early pioneers like Alan Turing envisioned the idea of machines that could simulate human intelligence. Despite numerous setbacks and disappointments, researchers continued to push the boundaries of AI. They invested in understanding the underpinnings of human cognition, machine learning, and pattern recognition.

Throughout the 1970s and 80s, futures researchers forecasted the potential impact of AI on various industries. They envisioned advancements in robotics, autonomous vehicles, natural language processing, and expert systems. The research and anticipation led governments, academia, and industry leaders to invest significantly in AI research, creating a snowball effect that eventually propelled AI to its current state.

Case Study 2: Renewable Energy

The quest for sustainable energy sources has been a recurring theme in futures research for decades. As concerns about climate change grew, researchers and futurists focused on the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. They recognized the finite nature of conventional energy sources and the environmental harm they inflicted.

In the early 1970s, during the oil crisis, the importance of alternative energy became evident. Futures researchers explored the possibilities of harnessing solar, wind, geothermal, and tidal energy. They analyzed trends in energy consumption, resource availability, and technological advancements. By identifying barriers and potential catalysts, they highlighted the need for investment and policy changes.

As a result of futures research, governments and companies began investing heavily in renewable energy. The development and affordability of solar panels, the increase in wind turbine efficiency, and the rise of electric vehicles can be attributed, in part, to the foresight provided by futures research.

Conclusion

Futures research enables us to anticipate and prepare for the emergence of new technologies by analyzing trends, assessing potential scenarios, and shaping policies. The examples of AI and renewable energy highlight the power of futures research in influencing and accelerating technological advancements.

By investing in futures research, governments, businesses, and individuals can make informed decisions that shape a more sustainable, equitable, and technologically advanced future. Embracing the insights gained from futures research will allow us to navigate the complexities of rapid technological change and ensure that emerging technologies serve the greater good of society as we move forward into a new era.

Bottom line: Futurists are not fortune tellers. They use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist.

Image credit: Pixabay

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The Benefits and Challenges of Futures Research

The Benefits and Challenges of Futures Research

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

As the world continues to evolve at a rapid pace, it becomes increasingly vital for individuals, businesses, and governments to anticipate future trends and develop effective strategies to navigate the uncertainties that lie ahead. Futures research, also known as futurology or foresight, is an interdisciplinary field that aims to uncover potential futures and provide valuable insights for decision-making processes. This article explores the benefits and challenges of futures research and highlights two case study examples that demonstrate its practical applications.

Benefits of Futures Research:

1. Anticipating and Planning for Change: One of the primary benefits of futures research is its ability to help individuals and organizations anticipate and plan for change. By employing various analytical methods and tools, futures researchers can identify potential trends, disruptions, and emerging issues that may shape the future landscape. This gives decision-makers a valuable advantage in understanding the scope of potential challenges and opportunities, allowing them to proactively adapt their strategies and make informed decisions accordingly.

Case Study Example: Shell’s Scenarios Planning

Shell, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, has successfully utilized futures research techniques to adapt to changing energy landscapes. In the 1970s, amidst the oil crisis and mounting environmental concerns, Shell developed a set of scenarios to explore alternative futures in the energy sector. These scenarios provided a framework for decision-making and helped Shell anticipate the rise of renewable energy, leading to investments in solar, wind, and biofuels. This groundwork enabled Shell to diversify its portfolio and transition to a more sustainable energy company over time.

2. Inspiring Innovation and Resilience: Futures research fosters a culture of innovation by encouraging individuals and organizations to explore new possibilities and challenge conventional thinking. By examining potential futures, researchers can identify gaps, unmet needs, and disruptive trends, stimulating creative thinking and novel approaches. This, in turn, enables the development of innovative products, services, and strategies that can lead to a competitive advantage.

Case Study Example: Xerox’s PARC Research Center

Xerox established the Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) in the early 1970s to focus on exploring the future of computing and technology. PARC researchers anticipated various advancements in personal computing, including graphical user interfaces, ethernet networking, and laser printing. These foresight-inspired innovations laid the foundation for Xerox’s success in the technology market and significantly influenced the development of modern computing as we know it today.

Challenges of Futures Research:

1. Uncertainty and Complexity: Futures research is inherently confronted with uncertainty and complexity, making it challenging to accurately predict specific future outcomes. Multiple variables, unexpected events, and the interconnectedness of systems can often lead to inaccurate forecasts. The future is shaped by a multitude of factors, including political, social, economic, technological, and environmental influences, making it difficult to capture all possibilities comprehensively.

2. Perceived Lack of Relevance and Adoption: Another challenge of futures research lies in its perceived lack of relevance and adoption across various sectors. Many decision-makers tend to prioritize short-term goals and immediate challenges, overlooking the long-term view that futures research provides. Overcoming this challenge requires a shift in mindset that recognizes the value of investing time, resources, and attention in long-term foresight, as it offers unique insights and strategic advantages.

Conclusion:

Futures research holds immense value as a tool for planning, inspiring innovation, and enabling better decision-making by anticipating potential future trajectories. Through case study examples like Shell’s Scenarios Planning and Xerox’s PARC Research Center, we have seen how futures research can lead to successful adaptations to changing landscapes and the development of groundbreaking innovations. However, it is essential to acknowledge the challenges inherent in such endeavors, including the inherent uncertainty and the need for widespread adoption. By embracing futures research and embedding it into decision-making processes, individuals, organizations, and societies can proactively prepare for the unknowns and shape a more resilient and sustainable future.

Bottom line: Futurists are not fortune tellers. They use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist.

Image credit: Pixabay

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Futures Research and the Evolution of the Global Economy

Futures Research and the Evolution of the Global Economy

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

As the world becomes increasingly interconnected and complex, understanding the future of the global economy is of paramount importance. Businesses, governments, and individuals alike are constantly seeking ways to navigate the ever-changing economic landscape. In this article, we will explore the field of futures research and examine two case studies that highlight its significance in predicting and shaping the evolution of the global economy.

Futures research, also known as foresight or futurology, is a systematic approach that anticipates and analyzes potential future developments and their consequences. By employing various methodologies such as scenario planning, trend analysis, and simulation modeling, futures researchers aim to minimize uncertainty and inform decision-making for a wide range of stakeholders.

Case Study 1 – Green Energy

One prominent case study that illustrates the impact of futures research on the global economy is the rise of green energy. In the early 2000s, as concerns about climate change and the depletion of fossil fuel resources grew, some researchers and organizations began exploring alternative sources of energy. Through futures research, they identified the potential for renewable energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, to become cost-competitive with traditional energy sources.

By accurately predicting the decreasing costs and increasing efficiency of renewable energy technologies, futures researchers enabled governments and investors to allocate resources towards the development and deployment of these technologies. As a result, the global renewable energy industry experienced tremendous growth, contributing to the de-carbonization of economies worldwide and creating new opportunities for job creation and economic development.

Case Study 2 – Digital Economy

Another compelling case study that showcases the power of futures research is the evolution of the digital economy. In the 1990s, as the internet and digital technologies began to reshape various industries, futurists predicted the transformative impact they would have on the global economy. By identifying trends such as the rise of e-commerce, the sharing economy, and the proliferation of digital platforms, futurists helped business leaders and policymakers anticipate and adapt to the emerging digital landscape.

These insights enabled companies to invest in digital infrastructure, innovate new business models, and enhance their competitiveness in the global market. Governments, too, recognized the importance of fostering digital ecosystems and created regulatory frameworks that facilitated the growth of digital industries. Today, the digital economy is a dominant force, driving innovation and connectivity across the globe and significantly influencing economic growth.

Conclusion

In both case studies, futures research played a vital role in shaping the evolution of the global economy. By accurately anticipating future trends and developments, researchers and practitioners were able to inform strategic decisions, allocate resources effectively, and align their organizations with the changing economic landscape. Since uncertainty is inherent in any forecast, futures research provides a valuable tool to navigate uncertainty and plan for the future.

As we move forward, the importance of futures research will only continue to grow. Challenges such as climate change, automation, and geopolitical shifts require foresight and proactive planning. By investing in futures research, individuals, organizations, and governments can stay ahead of the curve, understand potential risks and opportunities, and ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for the global economy.

Bottom line: Futurists are not fortune tellers. They use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist.

Image credit: Pixabay

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Exploring the Application of Futures Research in Business

Exploring the Application of Futures Research in Business

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

Futures research, also known as strategic foresight, is a valuable discipline that enables businesses to anticipate and prepare for future trends and challenges. By studying emerging technologies, social changes, and economic shifts, companies can shape their strategies to stay ahead of the curve. This article delves into the application of futures research in business through two compelling case studies that demonstrate its effectiveness.

Case Study 1: Tesla’s Disruptive Vision for Electric Vehicles

Tesla, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, revolutionized the automotive industry through its visionary approach. By applying futures research, Tesla identified the impending need for sustainable transportation and recognized the potential market for electric cars. Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, envisioned a future where electric vehicles would dominate the market, offering a cleaner and more efficient alternative to traditional combustion engines.

Rather than conforming to existing industry norms, Tesla focused on developing advanced battery technology, creating a robust charging infrastructure, and designing sleek and high-performance electric vehicles. This forward-thinking approach, based on insights gained from futures research, positioned Tesla as a leader in the electric vehicle market and set the stage for increased demand and adoption of sustainable transportation worldwide.

Case Study 2: McDonald’s Embracing Changing Consumer Preferences

McDonald’s, the global fast-food chain, experienced considerable challenges as shifting consumer preferences favored healthier and more sustainable dining options. In response to these emerging trends, McDonald’s embraced the insights provided by futures research and undertook substantial strategic transformations.

The company diversified its menu by introducing healthier options such as salads, wraps, and fruit smoothies. They also implemented sustainable practices, such as sourcing cage-free eggs and responsibly harvested coffee. Moreover, McDonald’s introduced digital ordering and payment systems to cater to changing customer behaviors.

By leveraging futures research, McDonald’s proactively adapted its business model, appealing to a wider range of customers and aligning with evolving consumer expectations. This strategic shift allowed McDonald’s to remain relevant and competitive in an industry that demanded changes to stay ahead.

Conclusion

Futures research offers immense value to businesses by providing foresight into emerging trends and transforming challenges into opportunities. The case studies of Tesla and McDonald’s demonstrate the impact of leveraging futures research to drive innovation, adapt to changing dynamics, and meet customer demands effectively.

By incorporating strategic foresight into their decision-making processes, businesses can identify new markets, anticipate future needs, mitigate risks, and develop sustainable strategies for long-term success. With the ever-increasing pace of change in today’s business landscape, futures research has become an invaluable tool for companies that seek to thrive in a future-oriented and rapidly evolving world.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pixabay

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The Art and Science of Futures Research

The Art and Science of Futures Research

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

Every year, unforeseen events shape our lives—from pandemics to technological disruptions. It’s therefore no surprise that organizations of all types, ranging from governments to businesses, increasingly recognize the need to stay one step ahead of the curve. Futures research play a critical role in this process, blending the art of strategic scenario planning and the science of data-driven trend analysis to build a more resilient tomorrow.

At its core, futures research is a method of studying and anticipating change to better equip decision-makers to cope with, and capitalize on, opportunities and challenges of the future. It uses a blend of qualitative and quantitative research to consider both the immediate situation and a variety of potential scenarios, examining all elements that might affect this future, from socio-economic trends to proper investments. Most importantly, it is a way to proactively prepare for the inevitable changes that lay ahead, allowing organizations to make decisions with the greater context in mind.

Case Study 1 – Local Government

Take, for example, the Ontario Drinks Initiative (ODI), recently undertaken by the Ontario provincial government. ODI was established as a response to the explosive growth of hard seltzers and craft beers in the alcoholic beverage industry. The provincial government sought to understand not only current customer preferences and market figures but also the evolving trends in consumer demand that could shape the future of the sector. Futures research, in turn, allowed the government to more accurately predict the potential response to its proposed policies, providing insights on both the short-term actions and long-term investments needed to capitalize upon the industry’s transformation.

Case Study 2 – Healthcare Industry

A separate example can be seen in the healthcare industry, where a merger of hospital networks in the Midwest had become a major political issue. The medical staff, business leaders, and government officials had different opinions on the proposed merger, but they realized that the only way to make an informed decision was with the help of a more comprehensive and future-oriented analysis. Through futures research, the stakeholders managed to better understand potential long-term implications, economic impacts, and regulatory aspects in addition to more immediate pros and cons. In the end, this more nuanced research allowed for decision-makers to make a more informed and strategic decision.

Conclusion

Ultimately, futures research can be a powerful tool for any organization that is looking to stay ahead of the curve and stay ahead of the competition. By blending the art of qualitative scenarios with the science of quantitative data analysis, it can equip decision-makers with the greater context and insight they need to make more informed strategic decisions that can lead to long-term success.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pexels

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