From my vantage point here in Seattle, I’m constantly tracking emerging technologies that hold the potential to reshape our world. One area that consistently sparks my interest, and demands a strong human-centered lens, is synthetic biology. This revolutionary field combines biology and engineering principles to design and build new biological parts, devices, and systems—essentially allowing us to program life itself. While the possibilities are immense, so too are the ethical and societal considerations, making a human-centered approach to its innovation crucial.
Synthetic biology stands at the intersection of several scientific disciplines, leveraging our increasing understanding of genomics, molecular biology, and genetic engineering. It moves beyond simply reading the code of life to actively writing and rewriting it. This capability opens doors to addressing some of humanity’s most pressing challenges, from developing new medicines and sustainable fuels to creating novel materials and revolutionizing agriculture. However, as we gain the power to manipulate the fundamental building blocks of life, we must ensure that our innovation is guided by ethical principles, societal needs, and a deep understanding of the potential consequences.
A human-centered approach to innovation in synthetic biology means prioritizing the well-being of individuals and the planet. It involves engaging with the public to understand their concerns and aspirations, fostering transparency in research and development, and proactively addressing potential risks. It requires us to ask not just “can we do this?” but “should we do this?” and “what are the potential impacts on human health, the environment, and the fabric of society?” This proactive ethical framework is essential for building trust and ensuring that the transformative potential of synthetic biology is harnessed responsibly and for the benefit of all.
Case Study 1: Engineering Microbes for Sustainable Fuel Production
The Challenge: Dependence on Fossil Fuels and Climate Change
Our current reliance on fossil fuels is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation. Finding sustainable and renewable alternatives is a critical global challenge. Synthetic biology offers a promising pathway by enabling the engineering of microorganisms to produce biofuels from renewable resources, such as agricultural waste or even captured carbon dioxide.
The Innovation:
Companies and research labs are now engineering yeast and algae to efficiently convert sugars and other feedstocks into biofuels like ethanol, butanol, and even advanced hydrocarbons that can directly replace gasoline or jet fuel. This involves designing new metabolic pathways within these organisms, optimizing their growth conditions, and scaling up production in bioreactors. The human-centered aspect here lies in the potential to create a cleaner, more sustainable energy future, reducing our carbon footprint and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Furthermore, these bioproduction processes can potentially utilize waste streams, contributing to a more circular economy.
The Potential Impact:
Successful development and deployment of these bio-based fuels could significantly reduce our dependence on finite fossil fuel reserves and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Imagine fueling our cars and airplanes with fuels produced by engineered microbes, utilizing resources that would otherwise go to waste. This innovation has the potential to create new jobs in biorefineries and contribute to energy independence, while simultaneously addressing a critical environmental need. However, careful consideration of land use, water resources, and the potential for unintended environmental consequences is paramount to ensure a truly sustainable solution.
Key Insight: Synthetic biology offers powerful tools to engineer sustainable solutions to global challenges like climate change, but a human-centered approach requires careful consideration of the entire lifecycle and potential impacts.
Case Study 2: Cell-Based Agriculture for a Sustainable Food System
The Challenge: Environmental Impact and Ethical Concerns of Traditional Animal Agriculture
Traditional animal agriculture has a significant environmental footprint, contributing to deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and water pollution. It also raises ethical concerns about animal welfare. Synthetic biology is paving the way for cell-based agriculture, where meat and other animal products are grown directly from animal cells in a lab, without the need to raise and slaughter animals.
The Innovation:
Companies are now developing methods to cultivate animal cells in bioreactors, providing them with the necessary nutrients and growth factors to proliferate and differentiate into muscle tissue, fat, and other components of meat. This “cultured meat” has the potential to drastically reduce the environmental impact associated with traditional farming and address ethical concerns about animal treatment. From a human-centered perspective, this innovation could lead to a more sustainable and ethical food system, ensuring food security for a growing global population while minimizing harm to the planet and animals.
The Potential Impact:
Widespread adoption of cell-based agriculture could revolutionize the food industry, offering consumers real meat with a significantly lower environmental footprint. It could also reduce the risk of zoonotic diseases and the need for antibiotics in animal agriculture. However, challenges remain in scaling up production, reducing costs, and gaining consumer acceptance. Addressing public perceptions, ensuring the safety and nutritional value of lab-grown meat, and understanding the potential socio-economic impacts on traditional farming communities are crucial human-centered considerations for this transformative technology.
Key Insight: Synthetic biology can contribute to a more sustainable and ethical food system through cell-based agriculture, but public engagement and careful consideration of societal impacts are essential for its responsible adoption.
Startups and Companies to Watch
The field of synthetic biology is rapidly evolving, with numerous innovative startups and established companies making significant strides. Keep an eye on companies like Ginkgo Bioworks, which is building a platform for organism design; Zymergen, focused on creating novel materials and ingredients through microbial engineering; Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat, leveraging synthetic biology for plant-based and cell-based meat alternatives; Moderna and BioNTech, who utilized mRNA technology (a product of synthetic biology advancements) for their groundbreaking COVID-19 vaccines; and companies like Pivot Bio, developing sustainable microbial fertilizers. This dynamic landscape is constantly generating new solutions and pushing the boundaries of what’s biologically possible.
As we continue to unlock the power of synthetic biology here in America and around the world, it is imperative that we do so with a strong sense of human-centered responsibility. By prioritizing ethics, engaging with society, and focusing on solutions that address fundamental human needs and environmental sustainability, we can ensure that this remarkable technology truly serves the betterment of humanity.
Disclaimer: This article speculates on the potential future applications of cutting-edge scientific research. While based on current scientific understanding, the practical realization of these concepts may vary in timeline and feasibility and are subject to ongoing research and development.
Image credit: Gemini
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When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, his first mission was not to create but destroy. He axed a number of failing products and initiatives, such as the ill-fated Newton personal digital assistant and the Macintosh clones. Under Jobs, Apple would no longer try to be all things to all people.
What came after was not a flurry of activity, but a limited number of highly targeted moves. First came the candy-colored iMac. It was a modest success. Then came the iPod, iPhone and iPad, breakout hits which propelled Apple from a failing company to the most valuable company on earth. Each move shifted the firm’s center of gravity to a decisive point and broke through.
That, in essence, is the principle of Schwerpunkt, a German military term that roughly translates to “focal point.” Jobs understood that he didn’t have to win everywhere, just where it mattered and focused Apple’s resources on just a few meaningful products. The truth is that good strategy relies less on charts and analysis than on finding your Schwerpunkt.
Putting Relative Strength Against Relative Weakness
The iPod, Apple’s first major hit after Jobs’ return, didn’t do anything to undermine the dominance of Microsoft and the PC, but rather focused Apple’s energy on a nascent, but fragmented industry that made products that, as Jobs put it, “sucked.” At this early stage, Apple probably couldn’t have taken on the computer giants, but it mopped up these guys.
Yet the move into music players wasn’t just about picking on scrawny weaklings, it leveraged some of Apple’s unique strengths, especially its ability to design simple, easy-to-use interfaces. Jobs’ own charisma and stature, not to mention the understanding of intellectual property rights he gained from his Pixar business, made him almost uniquely placed to navigate the challenges of setting up iTunes store, which at the time was a quagmire.
In Good Strategy | Bad Strategy management scholar Richard Rumelt makes the point that good strategy puts relative strength to bear against relative weakness and that is a key part of Schwerpunkt. In order to find your focal point, you need to get a sense of where your strengths lie and where are the best opportunities to leverage those strengths.
That’s exactly what Steve Jobs did at Apple over and over again. Entering the music player business would not have worked for Microsoft or Dell, who both dominated the computer industry at the time. In fact, after the launch of the iPod both tried to create competitors and failed. The iPod was Apple’s Schwerpunkt, nobody else’s.
Identifying The Focal Point
In a military conflict, leaders determine where to concentrate their efforts by weighing a variety of factors, including commander’s intent, or the desired end state, the situation on the ground gleaned through intelligence, the terrain and the enemy’s disposition on that terrain. Officers spend their whole careers learning how to make wise decisions about schwerpunkt.
Business leaders need to weigh similar factors, including the internal capabilities of their organization such as talent, technology and information, the market context, the competitive landscape as well as what they can access through external partner ecosystems. By the time Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he had become a master at evaluating the forces at play.
With respect to the iPod, he felt confident in Apple’s ability to combine technology with design and that the market for digital music players, as he liked to put it, sucked. By looking at what competitors had to offer, he was confident that if he could create a device that would “put 1000 songs in my pocket,” he would have a hit product.
The only problem was that the technology to create such a product didn’t exist yet. That’s where the external ecosystem came in. On a routine trip to Japan to meet with suppliers, an engineer at Toshiba mentioned that the company developed a tiny memory drive that was about the size of a silver dollar, but didn’t know what it could be used for.
Jobs immediately recognized that the memory drive was his Schwerpunkt. He produced a $10 million check on the spot and got exclusive rights to the technology. Not only would he be able to create his iPod with the “1000 songs in my pocket” he so coveted, for a time at least, none of his competitors would be able to duplicate its capability.
Getting Inside The OODA Loop
When he was still a pilot, the legendary military strategist John Boyd developed the OODA loop to improve his own decision making in the cockpit. The idea is that you first OBSERVE, your surroundings, then you ORIENT that information in terms of previous knowledge and experiences. That leads you to DECIDE and ACT, which will change the situation in some way, that you will need to observe, orient, decide and act upon.
We can see how Steve Jobs employed the OODA loop in making the decision to immediately produce a $10 million dollar check for a technology that Toshiba had no idea what to do with. He took the new information he observed and immediately oriented it with previous observations he made about the market for digital music devices.
Yet what happened next was even more interesting. When the iPod came out, it was an immediate hit, which changed the basis of competition. Other computer companies, which were competing in the realm of laptops, desktops and servers, suddenly faced a very different market and moved to create their own digital music players. Dell’s Digital Jukebox launched in 2004, Microsoft’s Zune came out in 2006. Both failed miserably.
By then Apple was already preparing the launch of the iPhone, which would change the game again, causing its competitors to Observe, Orient, Decide in Act in reaction to what Apple was doing. Boyd called this “getting inside your opponent’s OODA Loop.” By continually having to orient and react to Apple, they weren’t able to gain the initiative.
Today, it’s hard to remember just how powerful firms like Microsoft and Dell were back then, but they were absolute giants. Nevertheless, by employing the concept of Schwerpunkt, Apple went from near bankruptcy to dominating its rivals in less than a decade.
A Journey Rather Than A Destination
The biggest strategic mistake you can make is to try and win everywhere at once. To win, you need to prevail in the decisive battles, not the irrelevant skirmishes. That, in essence, is the principle of Schwerpunkt—to identify a focal point where you can direct your resources and efforts.
When Steve Jobs returned to Apple, computer companies were duking it out in the PC market, yet he identified digital music players as his Schwerpunkt and the iPod made Apple a serious player. As his competitors were still reacting, he launched the iPhone and on it went. Whenever Steve Jobs would, towards the end of a product presentation say, “and just one more thing,” You could guarantee that he had identified a new Schwerpunkt.
Notice how Schwerpunkt is a dynamic, not a static, concept. It was Jobs’ ability to constantly innovate Apple’s approach, by constantly observing, reorienting and shifting the competitive context. In each case, his strategy was uniquely suited to Apple’s, capabilities, customers and ecosystem. Competitors Microsoft or Dell, more suited to the enterprise market, couldn’t be successful with a similar approach.
There is no ideal strategy, just ones that are ideally suited to a particular context, when relative strength can be brought to bear against relative weakness. Discovering the center of gravity at which you can break through is more of a journey than a destination, you can never be sure beforehand where exactly you will find it, but it will become clear once you’ve arrived.
— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credit: Unsplash
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As a fashion and lifestyle conceptualist and analyst for a major Australian department store group during the pre-Internet era, I co-created, with the GM of Marketing and GM of Women’s, Men’s, Children’s Apparel and Accessories, a completely new role. I took on the responsibility of forecasting and predicting customer, lifestyle, and fashion trends two to three years ahead of the present. While forecasting involves estimating future events or trends based on historical and statistical data, making predictions involves forming educated guesses or projections that do not necessarily rely on such data. Both forecasting and predictive skills are vital for developing strategic foresight—an organized and systematic approach to exploring plausible futures and anticipating, better preparing for, and staying ahead of change.
In this exciting new role, I had to ensure that my forecasts and predictions did not cause people to become anxious and tense, leading to poor or conflicting decisions involving millions of dollars. Instead, I needed to make sure that my forecasts convinced people that the well-researched information had been collected, captured, analyzed, and synthesized effectively. To ensure that the discovery of new marketing concepts is prompted by the development of strategic foresight, which enables people to make informed, million-dollar investment decisions by staying ahead of change.
This was before the revolutions in Design Thinking and Strategic Foresight. It taught me the fundamentals of agile and adaptive thinking processes, as well as the importance of creating and capturing value by viewing it from the customer’s perspective. It was initiated through rigorous research that involved framing the domain and scanning for trends by mentally moving back and forth among many scenarios, making links, connections, and unlikely associations. The information could then be actualized, analyzed, and synthesized to focus on evaluating a range of plausible futures as forecast scenarios. To envision the future by identifying the most promising or commercially viable trends in Australian marketing and merchandising, thereby supporting better policy-making across the organization, which consisted of forty-two department stores.
At the time, Australian fashion and lifestyle trends were considered six months behind those in Europe and the USA. This allowed me to utilize current and historical sales data, along with statistical methods, to create a solid foundation for the sales and marketing situation across various merchandise segments. Having completed a marketing degree as an adult learner, I applied and integrated marketing concepts and principles from product and fashion lifecycle management. Through being inventive, I built a fashion and lifestyle information system that had not previously existed, enabling the whole organization to stay ahead of change.
I conducted backcasting research and built relationships with top Australian manufacturers that supplied our customers, gathering evidence and feedback that supported or challenged my approach to developing trend-tracking processes over a three-year period. I traveled widely four times a year to Europe and the USA to research the fashion and lifestyle value chain, visiting yarn, textile, couture, and ready-to-wear shows to explore, discover, identify, and validate emerging and diverging trends, providing context and evidence of their evolution and convergence. This was further tested and validated by analyzing and synthesizing the most critical and commercially successful fashion and lifestyle ranges marketed and merchandised at that time in major global department stores and leading retail outlets.
Formal research was also carried out through various channels, including desktop research, fashion and lifestyle forecasting services, as well as USA and European media, to gather customer insights that could then be identified, analyzed, synthesized, and developed and implemented into key fashion marketing and merchandising trends across the entire group of forty-two department stores. This enabled them to present a coordinated marketing and merchandising approach across all apparel to customers and stay ahead of change.
This was my journey into what is now known as strategic foresight, laying the vital foundations for developing my brain’s neuroplasticity and neuroelasticity, and becoming an agility shifter, with a prospective mind and adaptive thinking strategy that enables me to stay ahead of change.
Staying ahead of change
It took me many years to realize that I was chosen for this enviable role, not because of my deep knowledge and extensive experience, but for my intuitive and unconventional way of thinking. In Tomorrowmind, Dr Martin Seligman calls this ‘prospection’, an ability to metabolize the past with the present to envisage the future. He states that a prospective mind extracts the nutrients from the past and the present, then excretes the toxins and ballast to prepare for tomorrow. He defines prospection as “the mental process of projecting and evaluating future possibilities and then using these projections to guide thought and action.”
This develops the ability to stay ahead of change by anticipating and adapting to it, and includes many elements, such as:
Being able to adopt both a systemic and tactical approach, as well as a structured and detailed perspective alongside an agile and flexible view of the current reality or present state, simultaneously.
Sensing, connecting, perceiving, and linking operational patterns, and analyzing and synthesizing them within their context.
Generating, exploring, and unifying possibilities and options for selecting the most valuable commercial applications that match customers’ lifestyle needs and wants.
Unlearning and viewing the world with fresh eyes through sensing and perceiving it through a paradoxical lens, and cultivating a ‘both/and’ bird’s-eye perspective.
Opening your heart, mind, and will to relearning and learning, letting go of what may have worked in the past, focusing your emotional energy, towards learning new mindsets and mental models and relearning how to perceive the world differently.
Wondering and wandering into fresh and multiple perspectives underlie the development of a strategic foresight capability.
This approach helps shift your focus across the polarities of thought, from a fixed, binary, or linear and competitive approach to one that is neuro-scientifically grounded. It aims to foster your neuroplasticity and neuroelasticity within your brain, enabling the development of new and diverse perspectives that support prospective, strategic, critical, conceptual, complementary, and creative thinking processes necessary for staying ahead of change.
Improves strategic thinking
Strategic foresight aims to anticipate, analyze, synthesize, adapt to, and shape the factors relevant to a person, team, or company’s business, enabling it to perform and grow better than its competitors and stay ahead of change. It requires confidence, capacity, and competence to partner effectively and to think and act differently, using cutting-edge analytics, proven creative tools, and artificial intelligence (AI). This approach empowers, enables, and equips individuals with better, more risk-informed strategic thinking. It also provides a foundation for creative thinking by helping people better understand the options and alternatives available to them. Additionally, it identifies potential developments that could lead to building a competitive advantage at the individual, team, or organizational level, enabling them to stay ahead of change, innovate, and succeed in an uncertain business environment.
Increases adaptability
In a recent article, ‘Navigating the Future with Strategic Foresight, the Boston Consulting Group stated:
“It’s not about gathering more data than everyone else but about being able to detect forward-looking signals, stretch perspectives, and interpret the data with fresh eyes. Uncertainty does not dissipate; rather, strategic foresight offers the clarity of direction that comes from greater confidence in data, assumptions, and analysis”.
The information gathered through strategic foresight enhances people’s ability and willingness to adapt their responses to uncertainty and unexpected situations and embrace change. It provides concrete evidence, in the form of data, assumptions, and analysis, to support people in being adaptive. This requires being open to unlearning, relearning, and learning, protecting you against anxiety, stress, and burnout, and helping you stay ahead of change and become resilient to create, invent, and innovate through chaos, uncertainty and disruption.
This is an excerpt from our upcoming book, “Anyone Can Learn to Innovate,” scheduled for publication in early 2026.
Please find out about our collective learning products and tools, including The Coach for Innovators, Leaders, and Teams Certified Program, presented by Janet Sernack. It is a collaborative, intimate, and profoundly personalized innovation coaching and learning program supported by a global group of peers over nine weeks. It can be customized as a bespoke corporate learning program.
It is a blended and transformational change and learning program that will give you a deep understanding of the language, principles, and applications of an ecosystem-focused, human-centric approach and emergent structure (Theory U) to innovation. It will also upskill people and teams and develop their future fitness within your unique innovation context. Please find out more about our products and tools.
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In the world of innovation, we are always looking for the next big thing—the technology that will fundamentally change how we solve problems, create value, and shape the future. For the past several decades, that technology has been the classical computer, with its exponential increase in processing power. But a new paradigm is on the horizon, one that promises to unlock capabilities previously thought impossible: quantum computing. While it may seem like a distant, esoteric concept, innovators and business leaders who ignore quantum computing are doing so at their own peril. This isn’t just about faster computers; it’s about a complete re-imagining of what is computationally possible.
The core difference is simple but profound. A classical computer is like a single light switch—it can be either ON or OFF (1 or 0). A quantum computer, however, uses qubits that can be ON, OFF, or in a state of superposition, meaning it’s both ON and OFF at the same time. This ability, combined with entanglement, allows quantum computers to perform calculations in parallel and tackle problems that are intractable for even the most powerful supercomputers. The shift is not incremental; it is a fundamental leap in computational power, moving from a deterministic, linear process to a probabilistic, multi-dimensional one.
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Quantum as an Innovation Engine: Solving the Unsolvable
For innovators, quantum computing is not a threat to be feared, but a tool to be mastered. It provides a new lens through which to view and solve the world’s most complex challenges. The problems that are “hard” for classical computers—like simulating complex molecules, optimizing global supply chains, or cracking certain types of encryption—are the very problems where quantum computers are expected to excel. By leveraging this technology, innovators can create new products, services, and business models that were simply impossible before.
Key Areas Where Quantum Will Drive Innovation
Revolutionizing Material Science: Simulating how atoms and molecules interact is a notoriously difficult task for classical computers. Quantum computers can model these interactions with unprecedented accuracy, accelerating the discovery of new materials, catalysts, and life-saving drugs in fields from energy storage to pharmaceuticals.
Optimizing Complex Systems: From optimizing financial portfolios to routing delivery trucks in a complex network, optimization problems become exponentially more difficult as the number of variables increases. Quantum algorithms can solve these problems much faster, leading to incredible efficiencies and cost savings.
Fueling the Next Wave of AI: Quantum machine learning (QML) can process vast, complex datasets in ways that are impossible for classical AI. This could lead to more accurate predictive models, better image recognition, and new forms of artificial intelligence that can find patterns in data that humans and classical machines would miss.
Securing Our Digital Future: While quantum computing poses a threat to current encryption methods, it also offers a solution. Quantum cryptography promises to create uncrackable communication channels, leading to a new era of secure data transmission.
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Case Study 1: Accelerating Drug Discovery for a New Tomorrow
A major pharmaceutical company was struggling to develop a new drug for a rare disease. The traditional method involved months of painstaking laboratory experiments and classical computer simulations to model the interactions of a new molecule with its target protein. The sheer number of variables and possible molecular configurations made the process a slow and expensive trial-and-error loop, often with no clear path forward.
They partnered with a quantum computing research firm to apply quantum simulation algorithms. The quantum computer was able to model the complex quantum mechanical properties of the molecules with a level of precision and speed that was previously unattainable. Instead of months, the simulations were run in days. This allowed the human research team to rapidly narrow down the most promising molecular candidates, saving years of R&D time and millions of dollars. The quantum computer didn’t invent the drug, but it acted as a powerful co-pilot, guiding the human innovators to the most probable solutions and dramatically accelerating the path to a breakthrough.
This case study demonstrates how quantum computing can transform the bottleneck of complex simulation into a rapid discovery cycle, augmenting the human innovator’s ability to find life-saving solutions.
Case Study 2: Optimizing Global Logistics for a Sustainable Future
A global shipping and logistics company faced the monumental task of optimizing its entire network of ships, trucks, and warehouses. Factors like fuel costs, weather patterns, traffic, and delivery windows created a mind-bogglingly complex optimization problem. The company’s classical optimization software could only provide a suboptimal solution, leading to wasted fuel, delayed deliveries, and significant carbon emissions.
Recognizing the limitations of their current technology, they began to explore quantum optimization. By using a quantum annealer, a type of quantum computer designed for optimization problems, they were able to model the entire network simultaneously. The quantum algorithm found a more efficient route and scheduling solution that reduced fuel consumption by 15% and cut delivery times by an average of 10%. This innovation not only provided a significant competitive advantage but also had a profound positive impact on the company’s environmental footprint. It was an innovation that leveraged quantum computing to solve a business problem that was previously too complex for existing technology.
This example shows that quantum’s power to solve previously intractable optimization problems can lead to both significant cost savings and sustainable, planet-friendly outcomes.
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The Innovator’s Call to Action
The quantum revolution is not a distant sci-fi fantasy; it is a reality in its nascent stages. For innovators, the key is not to become a quantum physicist overnight, but to understand the potential of the technology and to start experimenting now. Here are the steps you must take to prepare for this new era:
Educate and Evangelize: Start a dialogue about quantum computing and its potential applications in your industry. Find internal champions who can explore this new frontier and evangelize its possibilities.
Find Your Partners: You don’t have to build your own quantum computer. Partner with academic institutions, research labs, or quantum-as-a-service providers to start running pilot projects on a cloud-based quantum machine.
Identify the Right Problems: Look for the “intractable” problems in your business—the optimization challenges, the material science hurdles, the data analysis bottlenecks—and see if they are a fit for quantum computing. These are the problems where a quantum solution will deliver a true breakthrough.
The greatest innovations are born from a willingness to embrace new tools and new ways of thinking. Quantum computing is the most powerful new tool we have ever seen. For the innovator of tomorrow, understanding and leveraging this technology will be the key to staying ahead. The quantum leap is upon us—are you ready to take it?
Disclaimer: This article speculates on the potential future applications of cutting-edge scientific research. While based on current scientific understanding, the practical realization of these concepts may vary in timeline and feasibility and are subject to ongoing research and development.
Image credit: Gemini
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What We Can Learn from Wildfire Fighters About Leading Through Uncertainty
GUEST POST from Robyn Bolton
What does a lightning strike in a Spanish forest have to do with your next leadership meeting? More than you think.
On June 14, 2014, lightning struck a forest on Spain’s northeast coast, only 60 miles from Barcelona. Within hours, flames 16 to 33 feet high raced out of control toward populated areas, threatening 27,000 acres of forest, an area larger than the city of Boston.
Everything – data, instincts, decades of firefighting doctrine – prioritized saving the entire forest and protecting the coastal towns.
Instead, the fire commanders chose to deliberately let 2,057 acres, roughly the size of Manhattan’s Central Park, burn.
The result? They saved the other 25,000 acres (an area the size of San Francisco), protected the coastal communities, and created a natural firebreak that would protect the region for decades. By accepting some losses, they prevented catastrophic ones.
The Fear Trap That’s Strangling Your Business
The Tivissa fire’s triumph happened because firefighters found the courage to escape what researchers call the “fear trap” – the tendency to focus exclusively on defending against known, measurable risks.
Despite research proving that defending against predictable, measurable risks through defensive strategies consistently fails in uncertain and dynamic scenarios, firefighter “best practices” continue to advocate this approach.
Sound familiar? It should. Most executives today are trapped in exactly this pattern.
We’re in the fire right now. Financial markets are yo-yoing, AI threatens to disrupt everything, and consumer behaviors are shifting.
Most executives are falling into the Fear Trap by doubling down on protecting their existing business and pouring resources into defending against predictable risks. Yet the real threats, the ones you can’t measure or model, continue to pound the business.
While you’re protecting last quarter’s wins, tomorrow’s disruption is spreading unchecked.
Four Principles for Creative Decision-Making Under Fire
The decision to cede certain areas wasn’t hasty but based on four principles enabling leaders in any situation to successfully navigate uncertainty.
1. A Predictable Situation is a Safe Situation.
Stop trying to control the uncontrollable. Standard procedures work in predictable situations but fail in unprecedented challenges.
Put it in Practice: Instead of creating endless contingency plans, build flexibility and agility into operations and decision-making.
2. Build Credibility Through Realistic Expectations.
Reducing uncertainty requires realism about what can be achieved. Fire commanders mapped out precisely which areas around Tivissa would burn and which would be saved, then communicated these hard truths and the considered trade-offs to officials and communities before implementing their strategy, building trust and preventing panic as the selected areas burned.
Put it in practice: Stop promising to protect everything and set realistic expectations about what you can control. Then communicate priorities, expectations, and trade-offs frequently, transparently, and clearly with all key stakeholders.
3. Include the future in your definition of success
Traditional firefighting protects immediate assets at risk. The Tivissa firefighters expanded this to include future resilience, recognizing that saving everything today could jeopardize the region tomorrow.
Put it in practice: Be transparent about how you define the Common Good in your organization, then reinforce it by making hard choices about where to compete and where to retreat. The goal isn’t to avoid all losses – it’s to maximize overall organizational health.
4. Use uncertainty to build for tomorrow.
Firefighters didn’t just accept that 2,057 acres would burn – they strategically chose which acres to let burn to create maximum future advantage, protecting the region for generations.
Put it in practice: Evaluate every response to uncertainty on whether it better positions you for future challenges. Leverage the disruption to build capabilities, market positions, and organizational structures that strengthen you for future uncertainty.
Your Next Move
When the wind shifted and the fire exploded, firefighters had to choose between defending everything (and likely losing it all) or accepting strategic losses to ensure overall wins.
You’re facing the same choice right now.
Like the firefighters, your breakthrough might come not from fighting harder against uncertainty, but from learning to work with it strategically.
What are you willing to let burn to save what matters most?
Image credit: Pexels
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“The single most important message in this book is very simple,” reads the first line in John Kotter’s highly regarded The Heart of Change. “People change what they do less because they are given analysis that shifts their thinking than because they are shown a truth that influences their feelings.
Really? That’s the important message? That emotive arguments are more powerful than factual arguments? What about other reasons why people change their behavior, such as social proof, conformity, incentives or coercion? By setting up a binary and artificial choice between two communication alternatives, he eliminates important strategic and tactical options.
It’s not just Kotter either, who is a well respected professor at Harvard Business School. The truth is that a lot of management thinking is surprisingly shoddy, with arbitrary notions and cognitive biases dressed up as scholarly work. We need to be more skeptical about “research” that comes out of business schools and consultancies. Here are three things to look for:
1. WYSIATI And Confirmation Bias
Kotter’s point about emotive vs. analytic arguments is, of course, completely valid. The fundamental error he makes is that he focuses on that particular aspect to the exclusion of everything else. Daniel Kahneman calls this WYSIATI, or “what you see is all there is.” Once you get tunnel vision on a particular fact or idea, it’s hard to see anything else.
Consider this thought experiment: You go to a conference featuring a powerful, emotive presentation on the need to combat climate change. You see glaciers melting, polar bears losing their habitat and young children starving from drought. Then you go back to the office, fired up and ready to do something about it, but everyone else has a strong argument against acting on climate change.
What is likely to happen next? You convince you co-workers—including your bosses— about the urgency of the crisis? Or, surrounded by skeptics, your conviction begins to wane? When all we see is the poor polar bears and starving in an echo chamber of likeminded people, we forget about other considerations, but that doesn’t mean that’s all there is.
An issue related to WYSIATI is confirmation bias. Kotter proudly points out that he worked with Deloitte to conduct extensive research for his book. Amazingly, after analyzing over 200 interviews, he ended up with the same 8-step process he cited in his earlier work. So what was the purpose of the research, to gain actual insights or to confirm what he thought he already knew?
Perhaps not surprisingly, after decades of organizations applying Kotter’s ideas about change McKinsey still finds that more than two-thirds of transformational efforts fail. Maybe there is actually more to change than communication strategy.
2. Halo Effects And Confounding Variables
One of the most popular modes of analysis that business thinkers use is to examine successful companies and see what they do differently. A number of bestselling management books, such as In Search of Excellence, have used this method. Unfortunately, when doing so they often fall prey to a cognitive bias known as the halo effect.
For example, in 2000, before the dotcom crash, Cisco was flying high. A profile in Fortune reported it to have an unparalleled culture with highly motivated employees. But just one year later, when the market tanked, the very same publication described it as “cocksure” and “naive.” Did the “culture,” under the very same leadership, really change that much in a year? Or did the perceptions of its performance change?
Cisco had a highly motivated and, some would say, aggressive sales force. When the company was doing well, analysts assumed it was their aggressiveness that produced good results and when its fortunes changed, that same aggressive behavior was blamed for its failures. This is what’s known as a confounding error, the fact that an aggressive sales force correlated with specific results doesn’t mean that the aggressive sales force caused the results.
Every organization has things which it does differently, that are idiosyncratic to its management and culture. In some market contexts those traits will be advantageous, in other environments they may not be. It takes work—and some humility—to separate what’s truly a success factor, what’s merely fit for a narrow purpose and what’s not really relevant.
3. Survivorship Bias
Business school professors and consultants gain fame—not to mention large fees—when they are able to define a novel concept or success factor. If you are able to isolate one thing that organizations should do differently, you have a powerful product to sell. A single powerful insight can make an entire career, which is probably why so many cut corners.
For example, in their study of 108 companies, distinguished INSEAD professors W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne found that “blue ocean” products, those in new categories without competition, far outperform those in the more competitive “red ocean” markets. Their book, Blue Ocean Strategy, was an immediate hit, selling over 3.5 million copies.
Bain consultants Chris Zook and James Allen’ book, Profit from the Core, boasted even more extensive research encompassing 200 case studies, a database of 1,854 companies, 100 interviews of senior executives and an “extensive review” of existing literature. They found that firms that focused on their ”core” far outperformed those who strayed.
It doesn’t take too much thinking to start seeing problems. How can you both “focus on your core” and seek out “blue oceans”? It betrays logic that both strategies could outperform one another. Also, how do you define “core?” Core markets? Core capabilities? Core customers? While it’s true that “blue ocean” markets lack competitors, they don’t have any customers either. Who do you sell to?
Yet there is an even bigger, more insidious problem called survivorship bias. Notice how “research” doesn’t include firms that went out of business because there were no customers in those “blue oceans” or because they failed to diversify outside of their “core.” The data only pertains to those that survived.
It’s hard to think of any other field where researchers could get away with such obviously careless work. Can you imagine medical research that didn’t include patients that died, or airplane research that didn’t include the flights that crashed? Suffice it to say that since the two books were published two decades ago, they’ve shown no capacity to predict whether a business will succeed or fail.
Don’t Believe Everything You Think
When I’m finishing up a book, I send out sections to be fact-checked by experts and those who have first-person knowledge of events. I’m always amazed at how much I get wrong. In some cases, I make truly egregious errors about facts I should have known (or did know, but failed to take into account). It can be an incredibly humbling process.
That’s why it’s so important to not to believe everything you think, there are simply too many ways to get things wrong. As Richard Feynman put it, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” I would also add a second principle that just because you’ve managed to fool others, doesn’t mean you’ve gotten it right.
Unfortunately, so many of the popular management ideas today come from people who never actually operated a business, such as business school professors and consultants. These are often people who’ve never failed. They’ve been told that they’re smart all their lives and expect others to be impressed by their ideas, not to examine them thoroughly.
The problem with so much business thinking today is that there is an appalling lack of rigor. That’s the only way that obviously flawed ideas such as “blue oceans,” “profiting from the core” and John Kotter’s ideas about change management are able to gain traction. It’s hard to imagine any other field with such a complete lack of quality control.
That’s why I send out fact checks, because I know how likely I am to think foolish and inaccurate things. I’ve also noticed that I tend to be most wrong when I think I’ve come up with something brilliant. Much as Tolstoy wrote about families, there are infinitely more ways to get things wrong than to get things right.
— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credit: Pexels
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Here at Human-Centered Change & Innovation our focus is always on the intersection of human needs, innovative solutions, and the transformative power of change. In a world clamoring for sustainable answers to pressing problems, it’s easy to get lost in the hype cycles of AI and quantum computing. But sometimes, the most revolutionary advancements are quietly simmering beneath the surface, waiting for their moment to redefine our future. Today, I want to pull back the curtain on one such unsung hero: Elastocalorics.
This isn’t just another scientific curiosity; it’s a profound shift in how we might manage temperature, offering a genuinely human-centered approach to a challenge that impacts every facet of our lives – from the comfort of our homes to the efficiency of our industries.
The Unseen Revolution: Why Elastocalorics Matters
Let’s cut through the jargon. At its core, elastocalorics harnesses the fascinating property of certain materials (often shape-memory alloys like nickel-titanium) to absorb or release heat when subjected to mechanical stress. Stretch them, and they warm up. Release the tension, and they cool down. Think of it as a solid-state heat pump, a silent, elegant dance between material science and thermodynamics.
Why is this a game-changer? Because the status quo of cooling and heating is fundamentally unsustainable. Traditional vapor-compression systems, while effective, are energy hogs. They rely on refrigerants with high global warming potentials, contribute significantly to our carbon footprint, and are far from the ideal solution for a planet grappling with climate change.
Elastocalorics offers an alternative that is:
Energy-Efficient: By directly converting mechanical energy into thermal energy, these systems promise significant energy savings, drastically reducing the power required for cooling and heating.
Environmentally Friendly: No harmful refrigerants means zero ozone depletion potential and vastly reduced global warming potential. This is a truly green technology.
Compact and Quiet: Without the need for bulky compressors and fans, elastocaloric systems can be significantly smaller and operate with minimal noise, opening up new design possibilities for appliances and buildings.
Durable and Reliable: Solid-state systems typically have fewer moving parts, leading to increased longevity and reduced maintenance needs.
This isn’t just about saving a few bucks on your utility bill; it’s about fundamentally rethinking our relationship with temperature control in a way that aligns with our collective human responsibility to the planet.
Case Study 1: Reinventing Refrigeration – The Quest for a Greener Kitchen
Imagine a refrigerator that hums along silently, using a fraction of the energy of its conventional counterpart, and with no harmful chemicals circulating within its coils. This is the vision that elastocaloric technology is bringing to life in the appliance sector.
For decades, refrigerator design has been constrained by the limitations of vapor-compression cycles. Engineers and designers have been forced to work around bulky compressors, noisy fans, and the specific requirements of refrigerants. With elastocalorics, the paradigm shifts.
One pioneering effort, though still in research and development phases, involves startups exploring elastocaloric refrigeration units for commercial and residential applications. These companies are developing prototypes that utilize a series of stretching and relaxing bands of elastocaloric material, perhaps arranged in a carousel or linear array. As the material stretches, it releases heat to the ambient environment; as it relaxes, it cools down, absorbing heat from the refrigerator’s interior. This cyclical process efficiently moves heat out of the insulated compartment, maintaining a consistent low temperature.
The human-centered innovation here is profound. Beyond the obvious environmental benefits, elastocaloric refrigerators could lead to entirely new kitchen layouts. Imagine integrated cooling drawers that disappear into cabinetry, or silent, compact mini-fridges that fit seamlessly into any office or bedroom. The absence of noisy compressors enhances domestic tranquility, and the peace of mind knowing your appliance isn’t contributing to climate change is an intangible, yet powerful, benefit. This isn’t just a new fridge; it’s a new living experience.
Case Study 2: Precision Cooling for Tomorrow’s Data Centers – A Silent Revolution in Silicon Valleys
Data centers are the beating heart of our digital world, consuming staggering amounts of energy, with a significant portion dedicated to cooling the thousands of servers that power the internet. The heat generated by these machines is immense, and traditional cooling methods are expensive, inefficient, and often involve large-scale water consumption.
This is where elastocalorics enters as a potential game-changer. Consider research initiatives funded by major tech companies and government grants aimed at deploying elastocaloric cooling solutions directly within server racks. The idea is to move beyond room-level air conditioning and bring the cooling mechanism closer to the heat source itself.
Imagine elastocaloric cooling chips or modules directly integrated into server motherboards or mounted within individual server units. These tiny, silent heat pumps could efficiently draw heat away from processors and memory modules, transferring it to an external heat sink or a liquid cooling loop. This “point-of-source” cooling approach drastically reduces the energy wasted moving cool air across an entire data hall.
The human-centered aspect here might seem less obvious, but it’s critical. Efficient data centers mean less energy consumption, reducing the overall carbon footprint of our digital lives. For the engineers and operators, it means potentially smaller, quieter, and more reliable cooling infrastructure, reducing operational costs and freeing up valuable floor space. For society, it means a more sustainable digital future, allowing us to continue innovating and connecting without exacerbating our environmental challenges. It’s about enabling the human endeavor of connectivity and information exchange in an environmentally responsible way.
The Architects of a Cooler Future: Elastocaloric Market Leaders and Startups
The field of elastocaloric cooling, recognized by the World Economic Forum as a top emerging technology, is still largely in its research and development phase, but a number of key players are beginning to define the market. Established companies like Carrier and Daikin are actively exploring elastocaloric systems as a sustainable alternative to traditional HVAC, leveraging their existing expertise in heat pump technology. Additionally, materials science and industrial giants such as Ferrotec Holdings Corporation and Coherent Corp. are leading the way in developing the specialized alloys, like Nitinol (nickel-titanium), that are at the heart of this technology. On the startup and academic front, there’s a hive of innovation. A German consortium led by the Saarland University and the Center for Mechatronics and Automation Technology (ZeMA), with partners like Irish company Exergyn, is pioneering prototypes for residential and automotive cooling. Meanwhile, researchers at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) have made a significant breakthrough with the world’s first kilowatt-scale elastocaloric cooling device, pushing the technology closer to commercial viability. These innovators, both large and small, are laying the groundwork for a future free from environmentally harmful refrigerants.
The Road Ahead: From Lab to Living Room
Elastocalorics, while incredibly promising, is still in its nascent stages. There are challenges to overcome: optimizing material fatigue life, scaling up production, and integrating these systems seamlessly into existing infrastructures. However, the pace of innovation is accelerating. Researchers are constantly discovering new materials with even better elastocaloric properties, and engineers are devising ingenious ways to harness these effects efficiently.
As a thought leader in human-centered change and innovation, I see elastocalorics not just as a technology, but as a paradigm shift. It challenges us to rethink fundamental aspects of our built environment and industrial processes. It invites us to imagine a future where temperature control is not an environmental burden but an elegant, efficient, and almost invisible part of our lives.
The beauty of elastocalorics lies in its elegant simplicity and profound potential. It’s a testament to the fact that true innovation often lies in rediscovering and re-engineering the basic principles of physics in new, more sustainable ways. Keep an eye on this space; the silent revolution of elastocalorics is coming, and it has the power to cool our world in more ways than one.
Disclaimer: This article speculates on the potential future applications of cutting-edge scientific research. While based on current scientific understanding, the practical realization of these concepts may vary in timeline and feasibility and are subject to ongoing research and development.
Image credit: Gemini
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You’ve done everything to set Strategic Foresight efforts up for success. Executive authority? Check. Challenging inputs? Check. Process integration? Check. Now you just need to flip the switch and you’re off to the races.
Not so fast.
While the wrong set-up is guaranteed to cause failure, the right set-up doesn’t guarantee success. Research shows that strategic foresight initiatives with the right set-up fail because of “organizational pathologies” that sabotage even well-designed efforts.
If you aren’t leading the right people to do the right things in the right way, you’re not going to get the impact you need.
Here’s what to watch out for (and what to do when it happens).
Your Teams Misunderstand Foresight’s Purpose
People naturally assume that strategic foresight predicts the future. When it doesn’t, they abandon it faster than last year’s digital transformation initiative.
Shell learned this the hard way. In 1965, they built the Unified Planning Machinery, a computerized forecasting tool designed to predict cash flow based on trends. It was abandoned because executives feared “it would suppress discussion rather than encourage debate on differing perspectives.”
When they shifted from prediction to preparation, specifically to “modify the mental model of decision-makers faced with an uncertain future,” strategic foresight became an invaluable decision-making tool.
Help your team approach strategic foresight as preparation, not prediction, by measuring success by the improvement in discussion and decision-making, not scenario accuracy. When teams build mental flexibility rather than make predictions, wrong scenarios stop being failed scenarios.
People are Paralyzed by Fear of Being Wrong
Even when your teams understand foresight’s purpose, managers are often unwilling “to use foresight to plan beyond a few quarters, fearing that any decisions today could be wrong tomorrow.”
This is profoundly human. As Webb wrote, “When faced with uncertainty, we become inflexible. We revert to historical patterns, we stick to a predetermined plan, or we simply refuse to adopt a new mental model.” We nod along in scenario sessions, then make decisions exactly like we always have.
Shell’s scenario planning efforts succeeded because it made being wrong acceptable. Even though executives initially scoffed at the idea of oil prices quadrupling, they prepared for the scenario and took near-term “no regrets” decisions to restructure their portfolio.
To help people get past their fear, reward them for making foresight-informed decisions. For example, establish incentives and promotion criteria where exploring “wrong” scenarios leads to career advancement.
Your Culture Confuses Activity with Achievement
Between insight and action, the Tyranny of Now reigns. In even the most committed organizations, the very real and immediate needs of the business call us away from our planning efforts and consume our time and energy, meaning strategic foresight is embraced only when it doesn’t interfere with their “real” jobs.
Disney’s approach made strategic foresight a required element of people’s “real jobs” by integrating foresight activities and insights directly into performance management and strategic planning. When foresight teams identified that traditional media consumption was fracturing in 2012, Disney began preparing for that future by actively exploring and investing in new potential solutions.
Resist the Tyranny of Now’s pull by making strategic foresight activities just as tyrannical – require decisions based on foresight insights to occur in 90 days or less. These decisions should trigger resource allocation reviews, even if the resources are relatively small (e.g., one or a few people, tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars). If strategic foresight doesn’t force hard choices about investments and priorities, it’s activity without achievement.
How You Lead and What People Do Determine Strategic Foresight’s Success
Executive authority, challenging inputs, and process integration are necessary but not sufficient. Success requires conquering the deeper organizational and human behaviors that determine whether strategic foresight is a corporate ritual or a competitive advantage.
Image credit: Pexels
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The surprising power of reframing as an innovation tool
GUEST POST from John Bessant
Neuroplasticity. Not some weird creation of a mad 3D sculptor intent on creating a strange new species with which to threaten the world in another zombie apocalypse story but instead a wonderful feature of our brains. Research increasingly confirms our ability, in the face of unexpected shock or challenge, to rewire ourselves, make new neural connections. Defined as‘the ability of neural networks in the brain to change through growth and reorganization’ it’s visible in the ways in which people can recover speech or movement after traumatic brain injury and it’s now understood to be critical in the process of early cognitive development in babies. It’s even offered as one explanation for the impossible and unpredictable lifestyls of teenagers; their penchant for lying in bed all day and mooching aorund may be down to their working hard at the synaptic level to reconstruct their brains!
It’s also a good description of a key capability which entrepreneurs have. Being able to reframe, seeing the world in a new way opens up significant new possibilities. Provided, of course, that you are then able to follow through, solving problems and enabling the new connections necessary to bring about that state.
Think about Malcolm Maclean, sitting on the dock of the bay one afternoon and imagining an alternative approach to shipping. Instead of the laborious loading and unloading with all its costs, its wasted time, the security challenges and so on – why not use containers? The vision involved a stretch of the imagination; the actual realisation of it considerably more but in the end you have a game changer. Reframing and then realising the possibilities.
It’s an old story; the challenge of transportation and logistics was one which engaged James Brindley 200 years earlier as the Industrial Revolution began to reshape the British economy and the landscape in which it took place. You can’t get a manufacturing-led transformation off the ground unless you can move tings around – raw materials in and finsihed products out of your factories. Which, given the worn-out and primitive state of many of the roads and tracks criss-crossing the country at the time was a big problem. Brindley was one of the pioneers of the idea of creating waterways – canals – as an alternative, providing fast and straight connections between factories, cities and ports.
Image: Watercolour of Barton aqueduct by G.F. Yates 1793, public domain
Just like Malcolm Maclean, this was an inspirational idea which required a deal of systems thinking. Not just one which could imagine an alternative world built on waterways but also one which would need a lot of practical problem solving to bring it into being. Dealing with multiple questions around how to enable the different elements of the system to come together and deliver ‘emergent properties’ where the whole has an impact much greater than the sum of its parts.
His efforts extended well beyond the map making and route planning through to the detailed construction, involving tunnels, cuttings and viaducts. He also had to think through the big challenge of hydraulics, how to fill the canals with water and keep them full – which meant, amongst other things, solving the problem of lining the canal with a water- saving clay. He also reduced the water demand by cutting narrower canals and then designing narrow-boats to navigate them. And since the country is not level means that in places vessels using the canal have to climb up or down slopes which necessitated development of intricately engineered locks and sluices.
Brindley’s work on connecting up the dots of his system into something which changed the transportation world of its time even extended to thinking in the same direction as Malcolm Mclean came to do much later. Faced with the problem of loading and unloading coal as a key bulk item Brindley devised a system involving specially built wooden containers which could be prefilled and transhipped quickly from specially-designed boats!
Above all Brindley was a systems thinker, seeing connections and working on how to best join up the dots to deliver major change. Which his legacy over 350 miles of canals criss-crossing the country and powering the Industrial Revolution seems to have done.
There’s still plenty of scope for such system rethinking today – giving opportunities even in the face of crisis. Take the example of Gridless, founded in 2022 and already a successful and growing business in the energy sector of Africa.
First the vision. Africa is the coming continent, with a huge population of around a billion largely young people and rapidly accelerating development. This creates an engine for growth through both domestic demand and – with sufficient investment – the possibility of increasing exports, not just of raw materials but of finished goods and services.
It has enormous potential – and it has a track record as a place where radical innovations can emerge and scale. Take the example of M-PESA. Where the idea of mobile money still seems fresh and exciting for citizens of the industrialised world learning to use cashless payments by phone it’s actually rather old hat to many people in East Africa. M-PESA (the word means mobile money in Swahili) is coming up towards celebrating its 20th birthday and has moved a long way from being an experiment to try and improve access to basic financial services for the largely unbanked population of Kenya. Now the M-PESA network carries 60% of GDP and delivers a growing range of services across the economy.
But Africa is also unevenly developed; not least in the case of energy. Whilst much of the population is now connected this is not the case everywhere. Over two thirds of the population – 600 million people – have no access to electricity. Mini-grids (relatively small local power stations and networks) can help solve this energy access problem, not least by tapping into the huge potential which renewable energy – solar, wind, hydro and biomass – has for the region.
There’s no shortage of technology to help construct mini and even micro-grids, and there are plenty of power sources which could potentially be tapped. The problem is economic; in order to finance the construction of such a micro-grid a lot of capital is needed up front. That needs a reasonable return to cover operating costs and recoup the investment costs – but in the short term the market to pay for this isn’t there.
When the power starts to flow there is relatively little demand to hook it up to; people who’ve survived without electricity don’t suddenly become active consumers. As Eric Hersman, one of the founders of Gridless points out, ‘ … if you’re a smallholder farmer in a rural village in Africa you’ll likely buy an LED light bulb and charge your phone at first. These don’t draw a lot of electricity, but they do change your life considerably. It might be a few years before you invest in that refrigerator, TV, irrigation pump, or electric oven’.
The consequence of this slow demand growth is that the provider ends up throwing away 80% of its energy and having to charge too high a price for the rest. What could be an important way of helping local communities develop runs aground because that high price effectively throttles the emerging demand at birth. Catch-22.
Gridless represents an entrepreneurial way of reframing this problem. Given such a stalemate their business model asks a simple question. What if there were a consumer who would guarantee to buy electricity at the necessary market rate to support the project and then gradually retreat as the prices fell and the connections rose? A stepping stone approach, essentially a temporary scaffolding to enable an infrastructure to emerge and grow. Using a horticultural metaphor it’s like putting in place a trellis to support an early sapling until the plant is able to survive and thrive on its own.
That’s the vision part of the Gridless approach – to help Africa with micro-grid development. Their website describes it simply: ‘By combining small-scale bitcoin data centres and renewables-based mini-grids they aim to develop the foundation of a new model to expand profitable electrification to communities in emerging markets without the need for charity, aid, gifts, or government subsidy…’
Bitcoin mining – the energy intensive operation of multiple computers beavering away at solving complex mathematical puzzles to earn rewards in the form of bitcoins – does not have the best of reputations in terms of sustainability. By its nature it involves consuming huge amounts of energy whose generation often contributes to pollution and global warming. But Gridless have reworked the story so that it makes a positive contribution to both sustainability of operations and community development.
It does so in a simple a practical way. It hooks up a bitcoin mine with a source of sustainable energy provided by local renewables like hydro or solar. And it deals with the ‘stranded energy’ problem by joining in the system as a ‘buyer of last resort’. Their bitcoin mining operations provide plenty of demand for energy and those operations are profitable enough to buy it at prices which are too high for local communities to pay in the short term. But as the market develops so the local demand increases – and this means the provider can reduce prices, recouping their costs over a larger market. They can also invest to extend the grid and bring yet more demand into the system.
Eventually things reach a point where there isn’t enough power left for the bitcoin mining, so Gridless pack up their operations, move on to another site where there is ‘stranded energy;’ and start the whole cycle once again. It’s a business model for development with some important social values underpinning it. The main purpose is to help connect people through micro-grids and to gradually exit as the role of the buyer of first resort becomes unnecessary. It’s a business fuelled by bitcoin profits but these are effectively being reinvested in social development – a powerful alternative vision. By providing a consistent and reliable demand for electricity, Bitcoin mining helps to utilize excess renewable energy that might otherwise go to waste, thereby unlocking the potential of stranded renewable energy projects and contributing to a more sustainable energy future.
An impressive vision – but as Messrs Maclean and Brindley will tell you, the challenge is not in creating the vision, it’s in realising it. Visions like these need a lot of different dots to be joined up, a lot of problem solving to make it all work. The Gridless solution starts with the idea of being ‘geographically agnostic’ – meaning it is mobile and can be moved anywhere, finding and helping develop micro-grids wherever there is ‘stranded energy’ opportunity.
They do this by putting the bitcoin mine in a box – literally, using a shipping container in a way which would make Malcolm Maclean proud. They move it close to sources of renewable power – like a micro-hydro system in Zambia, harvesting the abundant energy from the fast flowing Zambesi river.
They’ve worked hard on adapting their technology – computers, power supplies, software – to operate in what can still be challenging conditions. Rural Africa is a long way from the clinical clean environments of Silicon Valley and they’ve had to learn to deal with the suite of problems this throws up in order to make their system reliable. For example air quality- the dust which the wind blows up as it sweeps across the wide plains means you have to be very careful to fit suitable filters to avoid all the expensive electronics grinding to a halt. Ditto the heat; average temperatures in Kenya hover around 30 degrees Celsius so there’s a big problem in keeping things cool. And then there are the bugs.
In 2022 when they set up their first facility the lights attracted plenty of curious insects and, especially in the rainy season, they flew towards them en masse, only to crash into the ventilation fans and eventually jam them!
Problems weren’t just physical; the economics of buying containers ready made from China or the USA to use as mobile bitcoin mines posed a big challenge. Quite apart from the logistics and transportation costs of getting them to Africa there were bureaucratic costs involved in getting the various permissions needed to import such equipment. And then there were the capital costs – at over $100,000 per container it was too expensive. So the team went back to the drawing board and designed their own container which cost 75% less. It’s also had the side benefit of bypassing many of the import regulations (since it is now a domestically manufactured product)
Their problem-solving also extends to another big issue with their business model – that of micro-grid management. How to balance supply and demand and make sure that the needs of the community are served first? Gridless wanted to make sure that they weren’t using electricity which somebody else needed. They did this by writing their own software – Gridless OS – which allows for real-time response to demand, making sure people get what they need when they need it whilst also stabilising the grid.
After three years of such problem-solving the team have a robust model which they have demonstrated can work in a variety of contexts, using whatever renewable power supply is available – solar, hydro or biomass. Theirs is primarily a social mission and so they’ve codified their experience and can offer a blueprint for the same kind of model to be used by others to help African development.
And it works. Not only by connecting people to electric power but by extending the range of possibilities which that then opens up. Once you have power you can have light – which offers more than just illumination, it allows children to study at night and boosts education. Local services become possible because power enables small-scale facilities to operate and deliver healthcare. Business can connect better to markets and small-scale farms and factories can improve their operations and profitability, generating employment.
In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine one of the Gridless founders, Janet Maingi, elaborated on this novel approach which now operates in several countries including Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, ‘…for example, there’s a tea factory in Muranga, Kenya, which is in the highlands. We partnered with the energy generator in the area and they were able to give the factory power. Now, their facilities are able to support the tea factory, which has two benefits: tea farmers can bring their tea to the factory, which means it doesn’t spoil on the farms because they can’t get it to point B in time and more employment has also been created just by that tea factory becoming an electrified space….’
The potential is huge. As Eric Hersman, points out‘….just 10% – 40GW of the 400GW of hydroelectric energy in Africa – has been developed (and that’s just hydro!). There is a near unlimited supply of energy to be developed in the one place on earth that needs it most… Africa. But how to get the plants built? Despite being home to 17% of the world’s population, Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply investment’.
As he points out mini-grid business models have traditionally focused on having an ‘anchor client’, a single large electricity consumer such as a telecom tower, which consumes the majority of electricity supplied by the mini-grid. The anchor client is the first step in what’s called an ABC strategy (Anchor—Business—Consumers) for mini-grid financial sustainability. The model builds on finding an anchor client with a predictable load profile and then helping develop around that a group of local businesses that can provide stable demand and promote economic growth in the communities. The last step is residential customers, bringing them in gradually by improving access and generating income from them.
Over the last 3 years Gridless has shown that mini-grids can be made profitable using their model of becoming a ‘geographically agnostic anchor tenant’. They’ve done this on 6 sites in 3 African countries, using the stranded (wasted) energy from hydro, biomass, geothermal, some of that augmented by solar. Their numbers prove that it can be done; they are confident that a 5-7 year return on investment is possible on almost any hydro mini grid.
There’s a lot to be done – figures from the World Bank estimate that Africa needs 140,000 mini-grids to help electrify the continent. But as of 2025 only 5000 have been built – around 5% of what’s required. Which opens up a huge opportunity – if we can reframe the problem.
The key thing about neuroplasticity is that it isn’t an instant process of constructing new neural pathways. Instead the connections have to be made and reinforced; only gradually does the new network become fully operational. Patients who manage to recover movement or speech after a catastrophic neural event like a stroke do so by a mixture of hard work and determination. Gradually creating those new pathways.
Fixing problems like Africa’s energy challenge won’t happen overnight. It’s not going to be simple, and it will need a lot of system-level problem-solving, joining the dots. But just like James Brindley imagining a network of canals or Malcolm Maclean picturing container routes spanning the world, it starts with an entrepreneurial vision.
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Drum roll please…
