Tag Archives: Robotics

The Great American Contraction

Population, Scarcity, and the New Era of Human Value

The Great American Contraction - Population, Scarcity, and the New Era of Human Value

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

We stand at a unique crossroads in human history. For centuries, the American story has been a tale of growth and expansion. We built an empire on a relentless increase in population and labor, a constant flow of people and ideas fueling ever-greater economic output. But what happens when that foundational assumption is not just inverted, but rendered obsolete? What happens when a country built on the idea of more hands and more minds needing more work suddenly finds itself with a shrinking demand for both, thanks to the exponential rise of artificial intelligence and robotics?

The Old Equation: A Sinking Ship

The traditional narrative of immigration as an economic engine is now a relic of a bygone era. For decades, we debated whether immigrants filled low-skilled labor gaps or competed for high-skilled jobs. That entire argument is now moot. Robotics and autonomous systems are already replacing a vast swath of low-skilled labor, from agriculture to logistics, with greater speed and efficiency than any human ever could. This is not a future possibility; it’s a current reality accelerating at an exponential pace. The need for a large population to perform physical tasks is over.

But the disruption is far more profound. While we were arguing about factory floors and farm fields, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has quietly become a peer-level, and in many cases, superior, knowledge worker. AI can now draft legal briefs, write code, analyze complex data sets, and even generate creative content with a level of precision and speed no human can match. The very “high-skilled” jobs we once championed as the future — the jobs we sought to fill with the world’s brightest minds — are now on the chopping block. The traditional value chain of human labor, from manual to cognitive, is being dismantled from both ends simultaneously.

“The question is no longer ‘What can humans do?’ but ‘What can only a human do?'”

The New Paradigm: Radical Scarcity

This creates a terrifying and necessary paradox. The scarcity we must now manage is not one of labor or even of minds, but of human relevance. The old model of a growing population fueling a growing economy is not just inefficient; it is a direct path to social and economic collapse. A population designed for a labor-based economy is fundamentally misaligned with a future where labor is a non-human commodity. The only logical conclusion is a Great Contraction — a deliberate and necessary reduction of our population to a size that can be sustained by a radically transformed economy.

This reality demands a ruthless re-evaluation of our immigration policy. We can no longer afford to see immigrants as a source of labor, knowledge, or even general innovation. The only value that matters now is singular, irreplaceable talent. We must shift our focus from mass immigration to an ultra-selective, curated approach. The goal is no longer to bring in more people, but to attract and retain the handful of individuals whose unique genius and creativity are so rare that AI can’t replicate them. These are the truly exceptional minds who will pioneer new frontiers, not just execute existing tasks.

The future of innovation lies not in the crowd, but in the individual who can forge a new path where none existed before. We must build a system that only allows for the kind of talent that is a true outlier — the Einstein, the Tesla, the Brin, but with the understanding that even a hundred of them will not be enough to employ millions. We are not looking for a workforce; we are looking for a new type of human capital that can justify its existence in a world of automated plenty. This is a cold and pragmatic reality, but it is the only path forward.

Human-Centered Value in a Post-Labor World

My core philosophy has always been about human-centered innovation. In this new world, that means understanding that the purpose of innovation is not just about efficiency or profit. It’s about preserving and cultivating the rare human qualities that still hold value. The purpose of immigration, therefore, must shift. It is not about filling jobs, but about adding the spark of genius that can redefine what is possible for a smaller, more focused society. We must recognize that the most valuable immigrants are not those who can fill our knowledge economy, but those who can help us build a new economy based on a new, more profound understanding of what it means to be human.

The political and social challenges of this transition are immense. But the choice is clear. We can either cling to a growth-based model and face the inevitable social and economic fallout, or we can embrace this new reality. We can choose to see this moment not as a failure, but as an opportunity to become a smaller, more resilient, and more truly innovative nation. The future isn’t about fewer robots and more people. It’s about robots designing, building and repairing other robots. And, it’s about fewer people, but with more brilliant, diverse, and human ideas.

This may sound like a dystopia to some people, but to others it will sound like the future is finally arriving. If you’re still not quite sure what this future might look like and why fewer humans will be needed in America, here are a couple of videos from the present that will give you a glimpse of why this may be the future of America:

Image credit: Google Gemini

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

The Most Powerful Question

The Most Powerful Question

GUEST POST from Mike Shipulski

Artificial intelligence, 3D printing, robotics, autonomous cars – what do they have in common? In a word – learning.

Creativity, innovation and continuous improvement – what do they have in common? In a word – learning.

And what about lifelong personal development? Yup – learning.

Learning results when a system behaves differently than your mental model. And there four ways make a system behave differently. First, give new inputs to an existing system. Second, exercise an existing system in a new way (for example, slow it down or speed it up.) Third, modify elements of the existing system. And fourth, create a new system. Simply put, if you want a system to behave differently, you’ve got to change something. But if you want to learn, the system must respond differently than you predict.

If a new system performs exactly like you expect, it isn’t a new system. You’re not trying hard enough.

When your prediction is different than how the system actually behaves, that is called error. Your mental model was wrong and now, based on the new test results, it’s less wrong. From a learning perspective, that’s progress. But when companies want predictable results delivered on a predictable timeline, error is the last thing they want. Think about how crazy that is. A company wants predictable progress but rejects the very thing that generates the learning. Without error there can be no learning.

If you don’t predict the results before you run the test, there can be no learning.

It’s exciting to create a new system and put it through its paces. But it’s not real progress – it’s just activity. The valuable part, the progress part, comes only when you have the discipline to write down what you think will happen before you run the test. It’s not glamorous, but without prediction there can be no error.

If there is no trial, there can be no error. And without error, there can be no learning.

Let’s face it, companies don’t make it easy for people to try new things. People don’t try new things because they are afraid to be judged negatively if it “doesn’t work.” But what does it mean when something doesn’t work? It means the response of the new system is different than predicted. And you know what that’s called, right? It’s called learning.

When people are afraid to try new things, they are afraid to learn.

We have a language problem that we must all work to change. When you hear, “That didn’t work.”, say “Wow, that’s great learning.” When teams are told projects must be “on time, on spec and on budget”, ask the question, “Doesn’t that mean we don’t want them to learn?”

But, the whole dynamic can change with this one simple question – “What did you learn?” At every meeting, ask “What did you learn?” At every design review, ask “What did you learn?” At every lunch, ask “What did you learn?” Any time you interact with someone you care about, find a way to ask, “What did you learn?”

And by asking this simple question, the learning will take care of itself.

Image credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to join 17,000+ leaders getting Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to their inbox every week.

Innovation or Not – Kawasaki Corleo

Innovation or Not - Kawasaki Corleo

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Alright, let’s dive deep into the fascinating case of the Kawasaki Corleo, a hydrogen-powered four-legged robot, and dissect it through the lens of human-centered change and innovation. As our founder Braden Kelley would tell you, it’s not simply a matter of “yes” or “no.” Innovation is a complex beast, and we must approach it with nuance.

The Corleo: A Spark in the Hydrogen Horizon

At first glance, the Corleo is undeniably captivating. A four-legged robot, powered by hydrogen, designed to navigate challenging terrains. That’s a headline grabber. But does it translate to meaningful innovation? To answer that, we must move beyond the “wow” factor and examine its potential impact on people and the world.

Innovation: More Than Just Novelty

Innovation, in my view, isn’t just about creating something new. It’s about creating valuable new. It’s about solving real problems, addressing unmet needs, and improving lives. True innovation is human-centered; it’s about making a positive difference.

Let’s break down the Corleo through this framework:

  1. Novelty: Yes, the Corleo is novel. A hydrogen-powered, four-legged robot is a significant technological leap. The integration of hydrogen fuel cells into a quadruped platform is a clear differentiator. Kawasaki’s expertise in robotics and hydrogen technology is evident.
  2. Value: This is where the real questions arise. What value does the Corleo bring? Is it merely a technological demonstration, or does it offer tangible benefits?

Potential Value Propositions: Navigating the Uncharted

Kawasaki envisions the Corleo as a tool for infrastructure inspection, disaster response, and remote operations. These are areas where traditional robots or human intervention might be difficult or dangerous.

  • Infrastructure Inspection: Imagine the Corleo inspecting pipelines in remote areas, or bridges in hazardous environments. This could significantly reduce human risk and improve efficiency.
  • Disaster Response: In the aftermath of earthquakes or floods, the Corleo could navigate debris-filled areas, locate survivors, and deliver supplies.
  • Remote Operations: In industries like mining or offshore oil and gas, the Corleo could perform tasks in remote or challenging locations, minimizing human exposure to risk.

The Hydrogen Advantage: Sustainability and Endurance

The use of hydrogen is a critical differentiator. It offers several potential advantages:

  • Longer Endurance: Hydrogen fuel cells can provide significantly longer operating times than battery-powered robots, enabling extended missions in remote areas.
  • Faster Refueling: Hydrogen refueling is much faster than battery recharging, minimizing downtime.
  • Sustainability: Hydrogen, when produced from renewable sources, offers a clean and sustainable energy solution.

The Human-Centered Lens: Addressing Real Needs

To truly assess the Corleo’s innovation potential, we must consider its impact on people.

  • Worker Safety: By performing hazardous tasks, the Corleo can reduce the risk of injury or death for human workers.
  • Improved Efficiency: The Corleo can automate tasks, freeing up human workers for more complex and creative work.
  • Enhanced Disaster Response: By providing faster and more effective disaster response, the Corleo can save lives and reduce suffering.
  • Environmental Impact: The use of hydrogen, when sourced properly, can contribute to a cleaner and more sustainable future.

The Challenges and Considerations

However, the Corleo is not without its challenges.

  • Cost: Hydrogen fuel cells and the necessary infrastructure can be expensive, potentially limiting widespread adoption.
  • Infrastructure: Building a robust hydrogen refueling infrastructure is crucial for the Corleo’s practicality.
  • Complexity: Integrating hydrogen fuel cells into a quadruped robot is a complex engineering challenge, requiring significant expertise.
  • Social Acceptance: Any new technology, especially robots, can face social resistance. Addressing concerns about job displacement and ethical implications is essential.

Is It Innovation? A Conditional Yes

In conclusion, the Kawasaki Corleo has the potential to be a significant innovation. Its novelty, potential value propositions, and hydrogen advantage are undeniable. However, true innovation requires more than just technological prowess.

The Corleo’s success will depend on:

  • Demonstrating tangible value: Kawasaki must prove that the Corleo can effectively address real-world problems and deliver significant benefits.
  • Addressing the challenges: Overcoming the cost, infrastructure, and complexity challenges is crucial for widespread adoption.
  • Adopting a human-centered approach: Focusing on worker safety, efficiency, and environmental sustainability will be key to gaining social acceptance.

As a thought leader in human-centered change and innovation, I believe the Corleo is a promising step in the right direction. It represents a bold attempt to leverage cutting-edge technology to solve real-world problems. But the journey from novelty to true innovation is a long and challenging one. Kawasaki must demonstrate that the Corleo is not just a technological marvel, but a valuable tool that improves lives and makes the world a better place. Only then can we definitively declare it a true innovation.

The Corleo is a spark in the hydrogen horizon. Let’s see if Kawasaki can fan that spark into a flame of transformative innovation.

Image credit: Kawasaki Heavy Industries
Guest assistant writer: Open AI called in sick today, so Google Gemini is filling in

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

The Hard Problem of Consciousness is Not That Hard

The Hard Problem of Consciousness is Not That Hard

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

We human beings like to believe we are special—and we are, but not as special as we might like to think. One manifestation of our need to be exceptional is the way we privilege our experience of consciousness. This has led to a raft of philosophizing which can be organized around David Chalmers’ formulation of “the hard problem.”

In case this is a new phrase for you, here is some context from our friends at Wikipedia:

“… even when we have explained the performance of all the cognitive and behavioral functions in the vicinity of experience—perceptual discrimination, categorization, internal access, verbal report—there may still remain a further unanswered question: Why is the performance of these functions accompanied by experience?”

— David Chalmers, Facing up to the problem of consciousness

The problem of consciousness, Chalmers argues, is two problems: the easy problems and the hard problem. The easy problems may include how sensory systems work, how such data is processed in the brain, how that data influences behavior or verbal reports, the neural basis of thought and emotion, and so on. The hard problem is the problem of why and how those processes are accompanied by experience.3 It may further include the question of why these processes are accompanied by that particular experience rather than another experience.

The key word here is experience. It emerges out of cognitive processes, but it is not completely reducible to them. For anyone who has read much in the field of complexity, this should not come as a surprise. All complex systems share the phenomenon of higher orders of organization emerging out of lower orders, as seen in the frequently used example of how cells, tissues, organs, and organisms all interrelate. Experience is just the next level.

The notion that explaining experience is a hard problem comes from locating it at the wrong level of emergence. Materialists place it too low—they argue it is reducible to physical phenomena, which is simply another way of denying that emergence is a meaningful construct. Shakespeare is reducible to quantum effects? Good luck with that.

Most people’s problems with explaining experience, on the other hand, is that they place it too high. They want to use their own personal experience as a grounding point. The problem is that our personal experience of consciousness is deeply inflected by our immersion in language, but it is clear that experience precedes language acquisition, as we see in our infants as well as our pets. Philosophers call such experiences qualia, and they attribute all sorts of ineluctable and mysterious qualities to them. But there is a much better way to understand what qualia really are—namely, the pre-linguistic mind’s predecessor to ideas. That is, they are representations of reality that confer strategic advantage to the organism that can host and act upon them.

Experience in this context is the ability to detect, attend to, learn from, and respond to signals from our environment, whether they be externally or internally generated. Experiences are what we remember. That is why they are so important to us.

Now, as language-enabled humans, we verbalize these experiences constantly, which is what leads us to locate them higher up in the order of emergence, after language itself has emerged. Of course, we do have experiences with language directly—lots of them. But we need to acknowledge that our identity as experiencers is not dependent upon, indeed precedes our acquisition of, language capability.

With this framework in mind, let’s revisit some of the formulations of the hard problem to see if we can’t nip them in the bud.

  • The hard problem of consciousness is the problem of explaining why and how we have qualia or phenomenal experiences. Our explanation is that qualia are mental abstractions of phenomenal experiences that, when remembered and acted upon, confer strategic advantage to organisms under conditions of natural and sexual selection. Prior to the emergence of brains, “remembering and acting upon” is a function of chemical signals activating organisms to alter their behavior and, over time, to privilege tendencies that reinforce survival. Once brain emerges, chemical signaling is supplemented by electrical signaling to the same ends. There is no magic here, only a change of medium.
  • Annaka Harris poses the hard problem as the question of “how experience arise[s] out of non-sentient matter.” The answer to this question is, “level by level.” First sentience has to emerge from non-sentience. That happens with the emergence of life at the cellular level. Then sentience has to spread beyond the cell. That happens when chemical signaling enables cellular communication. Then sentience has to speed up to enable mobile life. That happens when electrical signaling enabled by nerves supplements chemical signaling enabled by circulatory systems. Then signaling has to complexify into meta-signaling, the aggregation of signals into qualia, remembered as experiences. Again, no miracles required.
  • Others, such as Daniel Dennett and Patricia Churchland believe that the hard problem is really more of a collection of easy problems, and will be solved through further analysis of the brain and behavior. If so, it will be through the lens of emergence, not through the mechanics of reductive materialism.
  • Consciousness is an ambiguous term. It can be used to mean self-consciousness, awareness, the state of being awake, and so on. Chalmers uses Thomas Nagel’s definition of consciousness: the feeling of what it is like to be something. Consciousness, in this sense, is synonymous with experience. Now we are in the language-inflected zone where we are going to get consciousness wrong because we are entangling it in levels of emergence that come later. Specifically, to experience anything as like anything else is not possible without the intervention of language. That is, likeness is not a qualia, it is a language-enabled idea. Thus, when Thomas Nagel famously asked, “What is it like to be a bat?” he is posing a question that has meaning only for humans, never for bats.

Going back to the first sentence above, self-consciousness is another concept that has been language-inflected in that only human beings have selves. Selves, in other words, are creations of language. More specifically, our selves are characters embedded in narratives, and use both the narratives and the character profiles to organize our lives. This is a completely language-dependent undertaking and thus not available to pets or infants. Our infants are self-sentient, but it is not until the little darlings learn language, hear stories, then hear stories about themselves, that they become conscious of their own selves as separate and distinct from other selves.

On the other hand, if we use the definitions of consciousness as synonymous with awareness or being awake, then we are exactly at the right level because both those capabilities are the symptoms of, and thus synonymous with, the emergence of consciousness.

  • Chalmers argues that experience is more than the sum of its parts. In other words, experience is irreducible. Yes, but let’s not be mysterious here. Experience emerges from the sum of its parts, just like any other layer of reality emergences from its component elements. To say something is irreducible does not mean that it is unexplainable.
  • Wolfgang Fasching argues that the hard problem is not about qualia, but about pure what-it-is-like-ness of experience in Nagel’s sense, about the very givenness of any phenomenal contents itself:

Today there is a strong tendency to simply equate consciousness with qualia. Yet there is clearly something not quite right about this. The “itchiness of itches” and the “hurtfulness of pain” are qualities we are conscious of. So, philosophy of mind tends to treat consciousness as if it consisted simply of the contents of consciousness (the phenomenal qualities), while it really is precisely consciousness of contents, the very givenness of whatever is subjectively given. And therefore, the problem of consciousness does not pertain so much to some alleged “mysterious, nonpublic objects”, i.e. objects that seem to be only “visible” to the respective subject, but rather to the nature of “seeing” itself (and in today’s philosophy of mind astonishingly little is said about the latter).

Once again, we are melding consciousness and language together when, to be accurate, we must continue to keep them separate. In this case, the dangerous phrase is “the nature of seeing.” There is nothing mysterious about seeing in the non-metaphorical sense, but that is not how the word is being used here. Instead, “seeing” is standing for “understanding” or “getting” or “grokking” (if you are nerdy enough to know Robert Heinlein’s Stranger in a Strange Land). Now, I think it is reasonable to assert that animals “grok” if by that we mean that they can reliably respond to environmental signals with strategic behaviors. But anything more than that requires the intervention of language, and that ends up locating consciousness per se at the wrong level of emergence.

OK, that’s enough from me. I don’t think I’ve exhausted the topic, so let me close by saying…

That’s what I think, what do you think?

Image Credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to join 17,000+ leaders getting Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to their inbox every week.

The Robots Aren’t Really Going to Take Over

The Robots Aren't Really Going to Take Over

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

In 2013, a study at Oxford University found that 47% of jobs in the United States are likely to be replaced by robots over the next two decades. As if that doesn’t seem bad enough, Yuval Noah Harari, in his bestselling book Homo Deus, writes that “humans might become militarily and economically useless.” Yeesh! That doesn’t sound good.

Yet today, ten years after the Oxford Study, we are experiencing a serious labor shortage. Even more puzzling is that the shortage is especially acute in manufacturing, where automation is most pervasive. If robots are truly taking over, then why are having trouble finding enough humans to do work that needs being done?

The truth is that automation doesn’t replace jobs, it replaces tasks and when tasks become automated, they largely become commoditized. So while there are significant causes for concern about automation, such as increasing returns to capital amid decreasing returns to labor, the real danger isn’t with automation itself, but what we choose to do with it.

Organisms Are Not Algorithms

Harari’s rationale for humans becoming useless is his assertion that “organisms are algorithms.” Much like a vending machine is programed to respond to buttons, humans and other animals are programed by genetics and evolution to respond to “sensations, emotions and thoughts.” When those particular buttons are pushed, we respond much like a vending machine does.

He gives various data points for this point of view. For example, he describes psychological experiments in which, by monitoring brainwaves, researchers are able to predict actions, such as whether a person will flip a switch, even before he or she is aware of it. He also points out that certain chemicals, such as Ritalin and Prozac, can modify behavior.

Therefore, he continues, free will is an illusion because we don’t choose our urges. Nobody makes a conscious choice to crave chocolate cake or cigarettes any more than we choose whether to be attracted to someone other than our spouse. Those things are a product of our biological programming.

Yet none of this is at all dispositive. While it is true that we don’t choose our urges, we do choose our actions. We can be aware of our urges and still resist them. In fact, we consider developing the ability to resist urges as an integral part of growing up. Mature adults are supposed to resist things like gluttony, adultery and greed.

Revealing And Building

If you believe that organisms are algorithms, it’s easy to see how humans become subservient to machines. As machine learning techniques combine with massive computing power, machines will be able to predict, with great accuracy, which buttons will lead to what actions. Here again, an incomplete picture leads to a spurious conclusion.

In his 1954 essay, The Question Concerning Technology the German philosopher Martin Heidegger sheds some light on these issues. He described technology as akin to art, in that it reveals truths about the nature of the world, brings them forth and puts them to some specific use. In the process, human nature and its capacity for good and evil is also revealed.

He gives the example of a hydroelectric dam, which reveals the energy of a river and puts it to use making electricity. In much the same sense, Mark Zuckerberg did not “build” a social network at Facebook, but took natural human tendencies and channeled them in a particular way. After all, we go online not for bits or electrons, but to connect with each other.

In another essay, Building Dwelling Thinking, Heidegger explains that building also plays an important role, because to build for the world, we first must understand what it means to live in it. Once we understand that Mark Zuckerberg, or anyone else for that matter, is working to manipulate us, we can work to prevent it. In fact, knowing that someone or something seeks to control us gives us an urge to resist. If we’re all algorithms, that’s part of the code.
Social Skills Will Trump Cognitive Skills

All of this is, of course, somewhat speculative. What is striking, however, is the extent to which the opposite of what Harari and other “experts” predict is happening. Not only have greater automation and more powerful machine learning algorithms not led to mass unemployment it has, as noted above, led to a labor shortage. What gives?

To understand what’s going on, consider the legal industry, which is rapidly being automated. Basic activities like legal discovery are now largely done by algorithms. Services like LegalZoom automate basic filings. There are even artificial intelligence systems that can predict the outcome of a court case better than a human can.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that many experts predict gloomy days ahead for lawyers. By now, you can probably predict the punchline. The number of lawyers in the US has increased by 15% since 2008 and it’s not hard to see why. People don’t hire lawyers for their ability to hire cheap associates to do discovery, file basic documents or even, for the most part, to go to trial. In large part, they want someone they can trust to advise them.

The true shift in the legal industry will be from cognitive to social skills. When much of the cognitive heavy lifting can be done by machines, attorneys who can show empathy and build trust will have an advantage over those who depend on their ability to retain large amounts of information and read through lots of documents.

Value Never Disappears, It Just Shifts To Another Place

In 1900, 30 million people in the United States worked as farmers, but by 1990 that number had fallen to under 3 million even as the population more than tripled. So, in a matter of speaking, 90% of American agriculture workers lost their jobs, mostly due to automation. Yet somehow, the twentieth century was seen as an era of unprecedented prosperity.

You can imagine anyone working in agriculture a hundred years ago would be horrified to find that their jobs would vanish over the next century. If you told them that everything would be okay because they could find work as computer scientists, geneticists or digital marketers, they would probably have thought that you were some kind of a nut.

But consider if you told them that instead of working in the fields all day, they could spend that time in a nice office that was cool and dry because of something called “air conditioning,” and that they would have machines that cook meals without needing wood to be chopped and hauled. To sweeten the pot you could tell them that ”work” would mostly consist largely of talking to other people. They may have imagined it as a paradise.

The truth is that value never disappears, it just shifts to another place. That’s why today we have less farmers, but more food and, for better or worse, more lawyers. It is also why it’s highly unlikely that the robots will take over, because we are not algorithms. We have the power to choose.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to join 17,000+ leaders getting Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to their inbox every week.

4 Key Aspects of Robots Taking Our Jobs

4 Key Aspects of Robots Taking Our Jobs

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

A 2019 study by the Brookings Institution found that over 61% of jobs will be affected by automation. That comes on the heels of a 2017 report from the McKinsey Global Institute that found that 51% of total working hours and $2.7 trillion dollars in wages are highly susceptible to automation and a 2013 Oxford study that found 47% of jobs will be replaced.

The future looks pretty grim indeed until you start looking at jobs that have already been automated. Fly-by-wire was introduced in 1968, but today we’re facing a massive pilot shortage. The number of bank tellers has doubled since ATMs were introduced. Overall, the US is facing a massive labor shortage.

In fact, although the workforce has doubled since 1970, labor participation rates have risen by more than 10% since then. Everywhere you look, as automation increases, so does the demand for skilled humans. So the challenge ahead isn’t so much finding work for humans, but to prepare humans to do the types of work that will be in demand in the years to come.

1. Automation Doesn’t Replace Jobs, It Replaces Tasks

To understand the disconnect between all the studies that seem to be predicting the elimination of jobs and the increasingly dire labor shortage, it helps to look a little deeper at what those studies are actually measuring. The truth is that they don’t actually look at the rate of jobs being created or lost, but tasks that are being automated. That’s something very different.

To understand why, consider the legal industry, which is rapidly being automated. Basic activities like legal discovery are now largely done by algorithms. Services like LegalZoom automate basic filings. There are even artificial intelligence systems that can predict the outcome of a court case better than a human can.

So, it shouldn’t be surprising that many experts predict gloomy days ahead for lawyers. Yet the number of lawyers in the US has increased by 15% since 2008 and it’s not hard to see why. People don’t hire lawyers for their ability to hire cheap associates to do discovery, file basic documents or even, for the most part, to go to trial. In large part, they want someone they can trust to advise them.

In a similar way we don’t expect bank tellers to process transactions anymore, but to help us with things that we can’t do at an ATM. As the retail sector becomes more automated, demand for e-commerce workers is booming. Go to a highly automated Apple Store and you’ll find far more workers than at a traditional store, but we expect them to do more than just ring us up.

2. When Tasks Become Automated, The Become Commoditized

Let’s think back to what a traditional bank looked like before ATMs or the Internet. In a typical branch, you would see a long row of tellers there to process deposits and withdrawals. Often, especially on Fridays when workers typically got paid, you would expect to see long lines of people waiting to be served.

In those days, tellers needed to process transactions quickly or the people waiting in line would get annoyed. Good service was fast service. If a bank had slow tellers, people would leave and go to one where the lines moved faster. So training tellers to process transactions efficiently was a key competitive trait.

Today, however, nobody waits in line at the bank because processing transactions is highly automated. Our paychecks are usually sent electronically. We can pay bills online and get cash from an ATM. What’s more, these aren’t considered competitive traits, but commodity services. We expect them as a basic requisite of doing business.

In the same way, we don’t expect real estate agents to find us a house or travel agents to book us a flight or find us a hotel room. These are things that we used to happily pay for, but today we expect something more.

3. When Things Become Commodities, Value Shifts Elsewhere

In 1900, 30 million people in the United States were farmers, but by 1990 that number had fallen to under 3 million even as the population more than tripled. So, in a manner of speaking, 90% of American agriculture workers lost their jobs, mostly due to automation. Still, the twentieth century became an era of unprecedented prosperity.

We’re in the midst of a similar transformation today. Just as our ancestors toiled in the fields, many of us today spend much of our time doing rote, routine tasks. However, as two economists from MIT explain in a paper, the jobs of the future are not white collar or blue collar, but those focused on non-routine tasks, especially those that involve other humans.

Consider the case of bookstores. Clearly, by automating the book buying process, Amazon disrupted superstore book retailers like Barnes & Noble and Borders. Borders filed for bankruptcy in 2011 and was liquidated later that same year. Barnes & Noble managed to survive but has been declining for years.

Yet a study at Harvard Business School found that small independent bookstores are thriving by adding value elsewhere, such as providing community events, curating titles and offering personal recommendations to customers. These are things that are hard to do well at a big box retailer and virtually impossible to do online.

4. Value Is Shifting from Cognitive Skills to Social Skills

20 or 30 years ago, the world was very different. High value work generally involved retaining information and manipulating numbers. Perhaps not surprisingly, education and corporate training programs were focused on teaching those skills and people would build their careers on performing well on knowledge and quantitative tasks.

Today, however, an average teenager has more access to information and computing power than a typical large enterprise had a generation ago, so knowledge retention and quantitative ability have largely been automated and devalued. High value work has shifted from cognitive skills to social skills.

Consider that the journal Nature has found that the average scientific paper today has four times as many authors as one did in 1950, and the work they are doing is far more interdisciplinary and done at greater distances than in the past. So even in highly technical areas, the ability to communicate and collaborate effectively is becoming an important skill.

There are some things that a machine will never do. Machines will never strike out at a Little League game, have their hearts broken or see their children born. That makes it difficult, if not impossible, for machines to relate to humans as well as a human can. The future of work is humans collaborating with other humans to design work for machines.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

Top 10 Human-Centered Change & Innovation Articles of August 2022

Top 10 Human-Centered Change & Innovation Articles of August 2022Drum roll please…

At the beginning of each month we will profile the ten articles from the previous month that generated the most traffic to Human-Centered Change & Innovation. Did your favorite make the cut?

But enough delay, here are August’s ten most popular innovation posts:

  1. Why Amazon Wants to Sell You Robots — by Shep Hyken
  2. Now is the Time to Design Cost Out of Our Products — by Mike Shipulski
  3. How Consensus Kills Innovation — by Greg Satell
  4. The Four Secrets of Innovation Implementation — by Shilpi Kumar
  5. Reset and Reconnect in a Chaotic World — by Janet Sernack
  6. This 9-Box Grid Can Help Grow Your Best Future Talent — by Soren Kaplan
  7. ‘Fail Fast’ is BS. Do This Instead — by Robyn Bolton
  8. The Power of Stopping — by Mike Shipulski
  9. The Battle Against the Half-Life of Learning — by Douglas Ferguson
  10. The Phoenix Checklist – Strategies for Innovation and Regeneration — by Teresa Spangler

BONUS – Here are five more strong articles published in July that continue to resonate with people:

If you’re not familiar with Human-Centered Change & Innovation, we publish 4-7 new articles every week built around innovation and transformation insights from our roster of contributing authors and ad hoc submissions from community members. Get the articles right in your Facebook, Twitter or Linkedin feeds too!

Have something to contribute?

Human-Centered Change & Innovation is open to contributions from any and all innovation and transformation professionals out there (practitioners, professors, researchers, consultants, authors, etc.) who have valuable human-centered change and innovation insights to share with everyone for the greater good. If you’d like to contribute, please contact me.

P.S. Here are our Top 40 Innovation Bloggers lists from the last two years:

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

The Role of Robotics in Modern Innovation

The Role of Robotics in Modern Innovation

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

In an era where technology is advancing at an unprecedented pace, the field of robotics stands out as a cornerstone of modern innovation. Robotics is not only transforming industries but also redefining the way we interact with the world. From healthcare to manufacturing, robots are revolutionizing processes, increasing efficiency, and enabling new possibilities. In this article, I will explore the multifaceted role of robotics in driving innovation today, alongside two illuminating case studies.

The Impact of Robotics on Innovation

Robots are no longer confined to science fiction; they are practical tools enhancing human capabilities. In modern innovation, robots serve several key roles:

  • Automation and Efficiency: Robots automate repetitive tasks, leading to substantial time and cost savings. This efficiency allows human capital to focus on strategic and creative tasks.
  • Precision and Consistency: In fields like manufacturing, robots produce work with high precision and consistency, reducing error rates and improving quality.
  • Unleashing Creativity: By taking over mundane tasks, robots free up time for humans to engage in more innovative and creative pursuits.
  • Enhancing Safety: Robotics can perform hazardous tasks that would be risky for humans, thus improving workplace safety.

Let’s delve deeper into two specific domains where robotics has significantly influenced innovation.

Case Study 1: Robotics in Healthcare

Transforming Surgery with Robotic Assistance

The integration of robotics in healthcare, particularly in surgical procedures, showcases an exemplary advancement. The da Vinci Surgical System is a prime example. This robotic platform enables surgeons to perform complex surgeries with enhanced precision through tiny incisions.

  • Benefits: Patients experience less pain, minimal scarring, and faster recovery times. Surgeons benefit from 3D visualization and articulated instruments that improve dexterity.
  • Innovation Impact: The robotics-assisted surgical approach has led to new surgical techniques and broadened the scope of minimally invasive surgeries, improving patient outcomes worldwide.

Case Study 2: Robotics in Agriculture

Revolutionizing Farming with Automation

In the realm of agriculture, robotics is driving a critical shift towards sustainability and increased productivity. Agrobot E-Series is an innovative robotic harvester designed to pick fruits like strawberries autonomously.

  • Benefits: This technology addresses labor shortages, reduces waste by ensuring only ripe fruit is picked, and operates continuously, which is vital for short harvesting seasons.
  • Innovation Impact: Robotics in agriculture is not only changing how we cultivate but also promoting precision farming practices, optimizing resource use, and minimizing environmental impact.

Conclusion

The role of robotics in modern innovation is profound and expanding. As these case studies illustrate, robots are catalyzing change across various sectors, enhancing human capabilities, and paving the way for transformative approaches. As robotics technology continues to evolve, so too will its capacity to innovate our world, creating new paradigms of possibility and redefining what it means to work alongside machines. The future of robotics is not simply about machines, but about the synergistic relationship between humans and technology, driving innovation that benefits society at large.

SPECIAL BONUS: The very best change planners use a visual, collaborative approach to create their deliverables. A methodology and tools like those in Change Planning Toolkit™ can empower anyone to become great change planners themselves.

Image credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

The Adoption of Robotics and Automation in Healthcare Industry

The Adoption of Robotics and Automation in Healthcare Industry

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

In recent years, the healthcare industry has seen a rapid increase in the adoption of robotics and automation technologies. These advanced technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way healthcare services are delivered, offering improved efficiency, accuracy, and patient outcomes. From surgical robots to automated medication dispensing systems, the possibilities for robotics and automation in healthcare are vast and exciting.

One prominent example of the adoption of robotics in healthcare is the da Vinci Surgical System. This cutting-edge robotic surgery system has been used in thousands of procedures worldwide, offering surgeons enhanced precision and control during minimally invasive surgeries. Studies have shown that surgeries performed using the da Vinci system result in faster recovery times, reduced pain, and improved outcomes for patients. This technology has not only improved patient care but has also revolutionized the way surgeons approach complex procedures.

Automated Medication Dispensing Systems

Another example of the adoption of automation in healthcare is the use of automated medication dispensing systems in hospitals and pharmacies. These systems use robotics to accurately dispense medications to patients, reducing the risk of medication errors and improving overall patient safety. By automating the medication dispensing process, healthcare facilities can streamline operations, reduce costs, and ensure that patients receive the correct medications in a timely manner.

The adoption of robotics and automation in healthcare is not without challenges. Healthcare providers must navigate regulatory hurdles, address concerns about job displacement, and ensure that new technologies are integrated seamlessly into existing workflows. However, the potential benefits of these technologies are too great to ignore. By embracing robotics and automation, healthcare providers can improve patient outcomes, enhance efficiency, and revolutionize the delivery of healthcare services.

Conclusion

The adoption of robotics and automation in the healthcare industry holds great promise for the future of patient care. From surgical robots to automated medication dispensing systems, these technologies have the power to transform the way healthcare services are delivered. By learning from successful case studies such as the da Vinci Surgical System and automated medication dispensing systems, healthcare providers can harness the potential of robotics and automation to improve outcomes and enhance patient care. The future of healthcare is bright, and robotics and automation are leading the way.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pixabay

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.

Robots and Automation

Redefining Industries and the Workforce

Robots and Automation

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

The world is undergoing a technological revolution, where robots and automation are increasingly prevalent in industries, altering the way we work and transforming entire sectors. This paradigm shift has given rise to a new era for the global workforce, with significant implications for the economy and society as a whole. In this thought leadership article, we will explore how robots and automation redefine industries and reshape the workforce by examining two compelling case study examples.

Case Study 1: The Automotive Industry

The automotive industry has witnessed a remarkable transformation due to the integration of robots and automation. Assembly lines that were once dominated by human labor have now become hubs of robotic efficiency. Manufacturing giants like Tesla and Toyota have turned to automation to enhance production speed, improve quality control, and ultimately increase profitability.

The deployment of robots and automation in the automotive sector has proven to be a game-changer. By automating repetitive and labor-intensive tasks, such as welding, painting, and assembly, manufacturers have achieved greater precision and consistency in their operations. This shift has also led to a reduction in workplace injuries, as robots effectively handle hazardous tasks and operate in environments inhospitable to humans.

Yet, the introduction of automation in the automotive industry has not come without its challenges. While overall productivity has surged, concerns about job displacement have mounted. However, it is important to note that automation has typically resulted in the creation of new jobs that are more cognitively demanding and require advanced technical skills. Moreover, the shift to automation allows human workers to be up-skilled in areas such as robot programming, maintenance, and supervision, leading to higher job satisfaction and improved career prospects.

Case Study 2: E-commerce and Warehousing

The rapid growth of e-commerce has revolutionized the retail industry, prompting a surge in demand for warehousing and fulfillment centers. Robots and automation have played a pivotal role in meeting this demand by redefining the warehousing landscape. Companies like Amazon have embraced robotics to optimize their logistics operations, enhance efficiency, and streamline processes.

Robots deployed in e-commerce warehouses are capable of picking, packing, and sorting products at remarkable speeds, far surpassing the capabilities of human workers. They navigate the warehouse floor with precision and utilize machine learning algorithms to continuously improve their performance. Automation allows for a much quicker order fulfillment process, leading to reduced delivery times and improved customer satisfaction.

While the use of robots in e-commerce warehouses has raised concerns about job displacement, it is vital to understand the broader picture. As demand for online shopping and rapid delivery increases, the need for more sophisticated logistics operations grows as well. This expansion necessitates a larger workforce to manage, program, and maintain the robotic systems. Furthermore, the integration of automation in e-commerce has opened up new opportunities for workers in areas such as inventory management, data analysis, and customer service, illustrating the transformative nature of this technology.

Conclusion

Robots and automation are undoubtedly redefining industries and transforming the global workforce. As exemplified by the automotive industry and e-commerce sector, the integration of this technology has led to increased productivity, improved quality control, and enhanced safety measures. While concerns about job displacement persist, historical evidence suggests that automation creates new roles that require advanced skills, benefiting workers in the long run. To adapt to this rapidly changing landscape, harnessing the potential of robots and automation will be crucial for individuals, companies, and policymakers alike. It is through proactive adaptation and up-skilling that we can embrace this technological revolution and shape a future where robots work alongside humans for the betterment of society.

Bottom line: Futurists are not fortune tellers. They use a formal approach to achieve their outcomes, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to be their own futurist.

Image credit: Wikimedia

Subscribe to Human-Centered Change & Innovation WeeklySign up here to get Human-Centered Change & Innovation Weekly delivered to your inbox every week.