Author Archives: Geoffrey Moore

About Geoffrey Moore

Geoffrey A. Moore is an author, speaker and business advisor to many of the leading companies in the high-tech sector, including Cisco, Cognizant, Compuware, HP, Microsoft, SAP, and Yahoo! Best known for Crossing the Chasm and Zone to Win with the latest book being The Infinite Staircase. Partner at Wildcat Venture Partners. Chairman Emeritus Chasm Group & Chasm Institute

A Tale of Two Narratives on Polarization

A Tale of Two Narratives on Polarization

GUEST POST from Geoffrey Moore

In a time of increasing polarization, amplified by social media and exacerbated by malicious actors, we all need to deepen our understanding of just what we are into. Polarization, as I described in a previous blog on this subject, is best understood as an artifact of people binding their identities to explanatory narratives that validate their experience of the world, especially those experiences that activate their deepest fears. Binding to narrative per se is fundamental to both psychological and social stability, and in that context, it is natural and healthy. But when the narrative is being deliberately corrupted in order to manipulate public opinion, it fosters increasingly antagonistic relationships, dehumanizing the antagonists and inflaming the protagonists, both of which encourage us to treat fellow human beings as targets for marginalization, incarceration, or elimination.

In contemporary culture, there are two framing narratives that are driving this kind of polarization (and let me give shout out to Tangle for calling them to my attention):

  1. Civilization vs the Barbarians. In this narrative, “we” are the defenders of what is good, noble, and sacred in human culture, and “they” are agents of evil, degradation, and blasphemy. Thus, “we” can consider ourselves exempt from ethical accountability in our actions against them because “they” are threatening the very foundation of ethics itself.
  2. Oppressed vs the Oppressors. In this narrative, “we” are the victims of political, social, and economic exploitation by “them,” an overclass that has acquired a disproportionate share of power, wealth, and entitlements illegitimately at our expense. Thus, “we” can consider ourselves exempt from ethical accountability in our actions against them because “they” have unethically disenfranchised us.

Both narratives can be legitimate under extreme conditions, but each also lends itself to inflammatory purposes as well. Historically, the role of news reporting has been to help us distinguish between these two states. What is disgraceful about today’s media is that major broadcast networks, as well as previously highly respected publications, have not just abandoned this role but are actively engaged in subverting it. Let’s look a little more closely at what they are up to.

Civilization vs the Barbarians

This is the narrative framework that underlies Israel’s stance about its war with Hamas. It is also the one the US used to justify its post-9/11 actions against both Iraq and Isis. In both instances, provoked by starkly violent surprise attacks against purely civilian targets, outrage and righteous indignation fueled a demand for massive retaliation. There was simply no room for acknowledging any mitigating circumstances, any possible responsibility for creating the conditions that might have led to the terrorist attacks, or any accountability for subsequent acts of retributive retaliation regardless of how appalling they, in turn, might have been.

Now, given the extremity of the provocations, it is hard to see how any of this could have been avoided. But the civilization-vs-barbarians narrative is being used much more broadly in contemporary political discourse to address concerns that are much less extreme, including the following:

  • Right-wing outrage over illegal immigration
  • Left-wing outrage over anti-abortion legislation
  • Right-wing outrage over students demonstrating over the war in Gaza
  • Left-wing outrage over climate change deriders
  • Right-wing outrage over DEI initiatives
  • Left-wing outrage over 2020 election deniers.
  • Right-wing outrage over atheism
  • Left-wing outrage over book-banning

The key term here, in case you missed it, is outrage. Outrage uses righteousness to legitimize an explosion of anger against a community-sanctioned target. But the roots of that anger are not in the object of its attention. They are in the subject that has been carrying that burden around internally and who has now found a socially acceptable way to release it. And don’t think this applies just to “other people.” No one (except maybe a saint) is exempt here. You and I are as subject to the power of narratives as anyone else—it is only the trigger narratives themselves that separate us.

Look back over the bullet points above. Each of them is encased in a narrative, be it based on fact or urban legend. We should not be naïve about the power of these narratives to shape public opinion and influence elections. Psychologically, they play upon some of our deepest fears and then offer us a protective shield that is both internally coherent and externally impenetrable. That’s what makes the civilization-vs-barbarians narrative such a powerful political tool.

Oppressed vs the Oppressors

This is the narrative framework that underlies US college student protests in support of the Palestinians and against Israel’s sustained offensive in the Gaza Strip, as well as NATO support for the Ukraine and US support for Taiwan. Inside the US, it underpins support for the homeless, defunding of the police, and decriminalization of drug use. In each case, in order to relieve the debilitating conditions these communities are living under, the narrative calls for a radical change in the status quo, including a willingness to deprioritize legal justice in order to achieve social justice.

There are two separate audiences this narrative seeks to engage. Ostensibly, it is the oppressed themselves, but this can be misleading. Under exceptional circumstances, it is true that such narratives can trigger a revolution of the oppressed, but more commonly, these folks are in no position to take action on their own behalf. The far more frequent audience is people of means who have the power to take action and who empathize with the cause. This results in two kinds of calls to action—a revolutionary path, led by the oppressed, which seeks to overthrow the oppressors through violent means, and a liberal path, led by the empathizers, which seeks reform by working within the system.

Although we associate the oppressed-vs-the-oppressors narrative primarily with the left, we should note that the far right is leveraging it as well, as witnessed by the following widely held claims:

  • The woke liberal establishment is imposing socialist agendas around climate change and DEI on the oppressed white middle class.
  • Parental rights are under attack, threatened by liberal ideologies that have taken over public schools.
  • The 2020 election was rigged by Democrats, and Republicans, therefore, need not accept the results of the 2024 election because it also could be rigged.
  • Donald Trump did not get a fair trial because it, too, was rigged.
  • (And at the far right) the tyranny of the Deep State is so oppressive it warrants patriotic citizens taking up arms and shedding blood.

The Implications

To sum up, both political parties are using both narratives, but in very different contexts.

  • US Right: “Oppressors are the woke liberal establishment imposing socialist agendas around climate change and DEI on the oppressed white middle class.”
  • US Right: “Barbarians are the illegal immigrants seeking to invade our country and take over our democracy by outnumbering the civilized native white citizenry.”
  • US Left: “Oppressors are the conservative capitalist establishment imposing unjust requirements on disadvantaged populations, including illegal immigrants, the homeless, and the addicted.”
  • US Left: “Barbarians are the far-right politicians and pundits undermining the rule of law with fake news and demagogic rhetoric to block reproductive rights, equal opportunity programs, and climate change initiatives.”

Any attempt to argue people off of any of these positions is almost certain to fail, not because the arguments that support them are especially persuasive, but because people have bound their identities to them so tightly that they cannot break with them. As part of this binding, society self-segregates into “Us” and “Them,” each with its own amplifying media sources, its own signals of solidarity, its own righteous indignation, its own contempt for the other side.

Given all that, what could anyone seeking a better way possibly do? That is a question for a future blog post, one that is still very much in the works. For now, we should just note when these narratives are being used in corrupt ways to legitimize illegitimate claims and do our best to detach ourselves from them.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

— Image credit: Pixabay

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Search Engine Marketing in the Era of AI-Assisted Search

Search Engine Marketing in the Era of AI-Assisted Search

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

My social media maven, Rich Stimbra, forwarded me the following as a potential blog topic:

Google’s revamped, AI-infused search is making businesses that depend on web search results anxious, and news publishers are already warning it could have “catastrophic” effects on the industry. Why? Google’s newly announced AI Overviews, set to launch this week in the U.S., synthesizes answers to users’ queries, and even though it will probably contain links, information from “know-it-all AI tools” could be thorough enough that users decide not to click through. News sites, whose audiences have already taken a hit from their content being downranked on social media, are bracing for further erosion from Google’s AI update.

Google unleashes AI in search, raising hopes for better results and fears about less web traffic

Boy, was he right. AI is bound to be a game-changer for both media and marketers alike, but not necessarily for the worst, provided that both communities up their games appropriately. Here’s what I think we have to prepare for:

  • Media — Yes, you are going to be disinter-media-ted (ouch!). But if your content is sufficiently differentiated, relevant, and impactful, its quality should cause it to rise to the top of the AI’s selection stack. Most of your material may not pass this test, which means you are going to have to acquire and retain your subscribers on your own. The result is almost certainly to be a smaller but more homogenous subscriber base that will be of more value to marketers targeting your core base and considerably less value to the “spray and pray” bunch. That, in turn, means you will likely be able to raise your CPM rates for those leads you do deliver while pivoting your business model to make more of your cash flow from subscribers rather than advertisers.
  • B2B Marketers — I expect this to be a boon for you because it should filter out a lot of low-quality leads and pass through higher-quality ones. The larger your ASP (Average Selling Price), the more important it is not to pursue underperforming lead-gen. But historically, lead-gen best practices have been developed by the B2C marketers, which encourages a very wide top-of-funnel in order to get as much market coverage as possible. B2B marketing wants a much more qualified top-of-funnel because the cost and time to qualify make low-quality leads a real burden. The CPM for more qualified leads will legitimately be higher, so the direct cost goes up, but the indirect cost of post-processing should decline more than enough to make up the difference. Additionally, business prospects are more likely to act on value-added responses than raw search results, which is good news, provided your content has sufficient relevance and impact to make the cut.
  • B2C Marketers — This is not good news for you. It narrows the top-of-funnel, potentially dramatically, and weeds out marginal leads which you are able to qualify much more cost-effectively than your B2B colleagues. For low-cost items, I expect your digital marketing dollars will shift increasingly to direct-to-consumer venues on popular social media platforms, spending more with influencers and less on raw coverage. For higher-priced ones, I expect a next-gen, AI-enhanced approach to email (text, messaging, etc.) marketing will pay off as well.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Pexels

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After the Chasm – Scaling Beyond the Beachhead

After the Chasm - Scaling Beyond the Beachhead

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

Crossing the chasm is the single most important goal for a B2B application that seeks to disrupt the status quo. The playbook has held up for more than 30 years because it continues to just work. That said, it does not say anything about what to do if you’re stuck in the mud on the other side. So, let’s suppose your enterprise has successfully crossed the chasm, achieved tens of millions of dollars in ARR, but is no longer growing at a rate to keep pace with the Rule of 40 percent (the sum of your profit and your growth rate). Your investors are getting antsy. Now what?

First of all, know your place. You are still sub-scale for a customer CFO to consider you desirable as a go-to vendor. Same goes for a CIO who is trying to consolidate rather than expand the list of vendors they are working with. So, as with crossing the chasm, your only ally will be a process owner with a problem process that is not getting the IT support they need. This time, however, you are looking for an adjacent process owner, someone for whom your chasm-crossing sponsor would make a good reference. This lowers the bar for how problematic the use case may be because there is already some proof that the solution will work.

Note that we are still at the departmental level, still a point-product app, not a platform, not a suite. Those are all worthy ambitions for the future, but if you try to activate them now, the CFO and the CIO will get involved, and you will get bogged down in proof-of-concept exercises that will take forever to scale.

That said, it is not too early to recruit ecosystem partners to help secure your beachhead and expand your reach. The key here is to engage with companies that are big enough to help but small enough to give you their full attention—not Tier 1 systems integrators, more like outsourced service providers to small and medium businesses or specific departmental functions. You don’t need a lot of these, but the ones you do recruit have to lean in, so make sure that there is enough trapped value in the target use case to pay both you and them a premium for resolving it. To accelerate this effort, ask your professional services team to package up their hard-won knowledge and make it available to the partners who can expand your beachhead market. You want your team to be plowing in the adjacent field, not harvesting in the initial one.

On the go-to-market side, you still need to be disciplined in deploying most of your resources into the target market segment and not letting them get distracted by chasing one-off opportunities elsewhere. That said, you can relax a bit from the laser focus of chasm-crossing as long as, say, two-thirds of the marketing and sales resources are directly aligned with your current goal. Remember at this point that marketing is still a territory capture game, so you want to go after targets that are big enough to matter but small enough to lead, and as always, a good fit with your crown jewels.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Geoffrey Moore

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Your 3 Phase AI Journey

Your 3 Phase AI Journey

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

As companies move from experimenting with GenAI to deploying for real ROI, executives should plan for three phases of development along the following lines:

Phase One: Optimize your operating model. This is the one everyone gets right away. Every business process is encumbered by ‘stupid stuff’ — low-value-adding tasks that are “how we do business around here.” These are all candidates from process re-engineering, but in the meantime, people have to work through them or around them to get anything done. RPA (Robotic Process Automation) can solve for the ones that are routine. GenAI expands the aperture to include those that demand creating situation-specific text, the sort of thing that would answer an FAQ, nudge a prospect to take a call, or check in on users that are at risk of churning out. Expediting this sort of work is a no-regrets move, entailing little risk while generating modest ROI.

Phase Two: Upgrade your infrastructure model. While you will likely start your Phase One journey leveraging out-of-the-box GenAI from Microsoft, Google, or Amazon, as you get deeper into it, you will want to add RAG (Retrieval-Augmented Generation) to the mix. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is the process of optimizing the output of a large language model so it references an authoritative knowledge base outside of its training data sources before generating a response. Basically, it taps into confidential in-house knowledge stores, as well as any external sources that provide expertise specific to your business, to build a more effective prompt for the public GenAI to leverage. Coordinating the APIs, keeping the guard rails on the process, and capturing the reusable knowledge gained will all require additional investment in your in-house IT capabilities.

Phase Three: Revisit your business model. Sooner or later, AI is going to materially disrupt the way business is done in your industry, eliminating old sources of trapped value while creating new ones at the same time. Customers will still look to your company to help them achieve their business outcomes, but they will be paying for different things than they pay for today. Consultancies and legal firms, for example, can expect to re-engineer their billable hour model, financial services their transaction fee model, and search engines their sponsored-ad model. The larger your enterprise, the more disruptive this is likely to be, so this would be a good time to test out new models in your Incubation Zone.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Geoffrey Moore

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Artificial Intelligence is a Rorschach Test

Artificial Intelligence is a Rorschach Test

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

Concerns about the potential negative impact of AI on humanity’s future well-being continue to foster discussion across a wide swath of society with pundits weighing in from every imaginable point of view. The fundamental unit of discourse that unites all these efforts is the scenario. As humans, when we have no facts, we generate narratives, which we then mine for insights and test for credibility. In the high-tech sector, we have been doing this for decades because disruptive innovations, by virtue of their very novelty, have no history, and so must win investment capital and early adopter support through story-telling.

As a former literature professor, I could not feel more at home. So, let us apply a little literary criticism to some of the doomsday narratives currently in circulation. Start with the Terminator scenario. Great movie—but if we take it literally for a moment, I don’t think its core premise can hold up. That premise is that an AI system can have the same kind of intention and ambition that underlies human behavior. But intention and ambition, attributes shared not just by humans but by all living things, are anchored in an involuntary compulsion to live and reproduce. Human beings, though fragile individually, are an integral manifestation of life itself, and life itself has an extraordinary performance record, having been playing Planet Earth uninterruptedly for over four billion years (beat that, Taylor Swift!) despite meteor strikes, ice ages, and massive volcanic eruptions. AI systems can be programmed to mimic and adopt our strategies for living, but they have no compulsion to live, and it has nothing like this heritage behind it.

A far more chilling narrative, to my way of thinking, is AI in the hands of malicious human actors. This is hardly a scenario, for we have already seen it wreak havoc across the digitally transforming landscape that constitutes contemporary society. The most immediate existential threat is releasing self-governing AI agents that slip the bounds of their control system and promulgate horrific consequences. This is the Jurassic Park narrative, and while its biology is fanciful, its theme of unintended consequences is anything but.

Preparing for this possibility is where various governmental agencies are focusing much of their attention, but here too the narrative has a credibility problem. The notion that legislative bodies could possibly keep pace with the pact of AI’s evolution, not to mention enlisting the societal support necessary to enforce their regulatory efforts, is simply ludicrous. And that brings us to a third narrative for context, Natural Selection.

When living things are put under existential threat, they accelerate their rate of mutation, abandoning the safe and steady course of inertial progress, because that is no longer safe at all. It’s ‘innovate or die’ time. Most of these mutations fail, but for four billion years, at least some of them have always succeeded. If we transplant that strategy into the human realm, it argues for enlisting agile, individual, and hopefully well-meaning talent to engage with a raft of unanticipated challenges, a sea of troubles, and by opposing end them. Legislation can help ratify and scale successful responses once they have been proven effective, but it cannot prevent the challenges from emerging in the first place, and frankly, should not try. Of course, it will try, and that I expect will add yet another layer of unintended consequences onto a plate that is already full.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Gemini

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The Fourth Inning in the Future of Work

The Future of Work Evolution: What Inning Are We In?

Editor’s Note: The State of the Game in 2026

When tech strategist Geoffrey A. Moore penned this piece in the spring of 2024, the “top of the fourth inning” was characterized by the initial, frantic rush toward generative AI adoption and a baseline shift toward customer success. Two years later, as we navigate 2026, the game has rapidly intensified.

We are no longer just talking about shifting toward “outcomes”—we are actively building the infrastructure to measure them. The baseline has evolved from simple subscription tracking to deep Experience Management Offices (XMOs) and Experience Level Measures (XLMs), proving that human-centered value is the ultimate digital metric. Furthermore, the early AI hype has matured into what we call the AI Soft Landing, where organizations are moving past experimental tools to restructure workflows around systemic, human-led collaboration. Read on to explore Geoffrey’s brilliant structural breakdown of how we arrived at this pivotal inning.

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

It’s spring of 2024, and as Major League baseball is getting underway, everyone in tech is talking about the future of work. Let me suggest we are in the top of the fourth inning, a couple of runners on base, but still much to be decided (all with the understanding that an inning in tech lasts somewhere between one and two decades—and you thought baseball games were long!). At any rate, here’s how I see it playing out.

The first inning where tech made a definitive impact on work spanned the 1970s and 80s when the dominant paradigm was proprietary mainframe computing and the focus was on management information systems. This was an era of control cultures where the mantra was plan your work and then work your plan. IBM and Oracle were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around reports.

The second inning emerged with the rise of client-server computing in the 1990s, where the focus was on real-time business processes. This was an era of competition cultures where the mantra was give me my objectives, give me my resources, and get the hell out of my way. Microsoft and Cisco were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around documents.

The third inning emerged out of the tech bubble popping at the turn of the century, where the dominant paradigm transitioned to cloud computing combined with mobile applications, and the focus shifted from B2B complex systems to B2C volume operations. This was an era of creativity cultures where the mantra was think different. Google and Apple were the dominant players, and workflows were organized around transactions.

Now we find ourselves at the top of the fourth inning, initiated with the rise of artificial intelligence, where the focus is on as-a-service subscription business models, the economics of churn, and the importance of the customer experience. This is an era of collaboration cultures where the mantra is put customer success before everything else. The dominant players have yet to be determined, but we do know that workflows will be organized around outcomes.

And that’s the point. Information technology that began at the periphery of the business as a back office report generation utility has now migrated to the very core of the enterprise’s mission, vision, and values. That’s why digital transformation is getting so much attention. But how to transform, and how to use digital technology to ensure that customers achieve the outcomes they seek, is very much still a work in progress.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Gemini

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Understanding Polarization

Understanding Polarization

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore


One might be forgiven for thinking that our world is undergoing an unprecedented crisis of polarization, but to help put things in perspective, here are some lyrics from a song sung by the Kingston Trio in 1959 to a tuneful minuet:

The whole world is festering
With unhappy souls
The French hate the Germans
The Germans hate the Poles

Italians hate Yugoslavs
South Africans hate the Dutch
And I don’t like
Anybody very much.

Polarization has been with us throughout recorded history. What is bringing it to crisis proportions in our era is a digitally connected world population being fed a stream of narratives that are constructed specifically and intentionally to exacerbate the problem. If we are going to navigate our way through this challenge, we need to get a better understanding of how polarization works and what it takes to depolarize.

How Polarization Works

Polarization begins when we embrace an opinion so deeply we incorporate it into our personal identity. It becomes part of the narrative we use to make sense of the world and our lives, and in this way becomes inseparable from our sense of self. An attack on such an opinion strikes at the very foundations of our personhood, something we hold inviolate, something we will defend to the death. This results in a “no-fly zone” of non-negotiability, a ring-fence that we will not allow to be breached.

Clearly, this is dangerous stuff, and we would all do well to avoid it altogether. Indeed, one way to think of spiritual enlightenment is to have grounded one’s identity in a state of being outside the realm of opinions. One still has opinions, but one controls them instead of having them control you. Unfortunately, but for a few saints and enlightened Buddhas, there are precious few of us who can claim that state. Most of us hold (or are held by) positions on one or more issues of contention that we simply refuse to entertain abandoning. That, let us say, is normal. But we need to understand, these are not positions of strength. They are not assets. They are liabilities. They make us vulnerable in all sorts of ways, some of which we might not appreciate or even detect.

Why do we do this? Our identities are anchored in narratives, stories we tell about ourselves and that others tell about us. They tell everyone including ourselves who we are. These narratives are organized around protagonists and antagonists. We seek to emulate the protagonists and defeat the antagonists. Now, the antagonists don’t have to be people. They can be challenges like crime or poverty or sickness or climate change. More often, however, they do end up being people, people we don’t know in all likelihood but who stand for the very things that we are so clearly against. The weird part about this is that they feel exactly the same way about us! But, how can that be? We are in the right, they are in the wrong, why don’t they see that? Instead, bizarrely, they are saying the same thing.

OK, this is pretty obviously a trap of our own making, and as adults, it is incumbent upon us to resist its effects as best we can. It is also clear that we come up short more often than one would like. So, for the time being, let us assume that some amount of polarization is a fact of life, and in that context, take stock of what that entails.

On a personal level, polarized beliefs make us susceptible to righteousness. We are deeply certain we are right and, when put under sufficient pressure, entitled to take whatever action we feel is necessary, even when that involves breaking the law. We have no interest in understanding our opponents or negotiating with them. We are in our very own “no-fly zone,” and we carry it with us wherever we go. This takes a toll on us but perhaps more importantly on our friends and family as well. They either have to capitulate and participate in our vision, or they have to skirt the issue altogether. Direct honest communication would require a level of vulnerability we are unwilling to entertain.

As citizens, polarized beliefs make us susceptible to political manipulation. Demagogues can engage our psyches by demonizing our antagonists, inflaming our righteousness with calls to action that speak to our very souls. We will bond with these leaders regardless of their histories because we are not interested in evidence, only validation. We unite with them around what is wrong and then allow them to define what is right as the destruction of what is wrong. It is a playbook that has been used throughout history, sad to say, because it is very, very effective. We see this in other people all the time. We need to see it in ourselves as well.

Next up: On Depolarization

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Pixabay

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Direction of Fit

A litmus test for news reporting, directed research, and conspiracy theories

Direction of Fit - A litmus test for news reporting, directed research, and conspiracy theories

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore


The philosopher Elizabeth Anscombe is credited with a wonderful thought experiment that illustrates the concept of direction of fit. Imagine a shopper is doing her errands, working off a list of things to buy. She is being followed by a detective who is making a list of everything she does buy. If both are successful, at the end of the day their two lists should be identical. But each list represents a different direction of fit. The shopper’s list works from mind to world: it seeks to fit the world to what the mind intends. The detective’s list works from world to mind: it seeks to fit the list to what the world in fact manifested. Mind-to-world and world-to-mind are thus two distinct directions of fit. Hold that thought as we apply it to three different kinds of discourse.

  1. News reporting is committed to maintaining a world-to-mind direction of fit. The integrity of the news is based on reporters doing their very best to discover and communicate what actually happened in the world. As part of their communication, they are responsible for providing evidence for their claims, citing whatever documents, sources, or other materials that warrant believing these claims to be true. The goal is to inform the reader as objectively as possible, a key plank in any platform that supports liberal democracy.
  2. Directed research is more complicated. It follows a bi-directional approach to fitting. It begins with a hypothesis which it seeks to either verify or disprove through some form of research or experiment. This represents a mind-to-world direction of fit. Einstein’s theory of relativity is an example. That research or experimentation, however, is conducted with scrupulous objectivity in order to create a body of world-to-mind evidence that is independent of the hypothesis. The Eddington Dyson expeditions to use a solar eclipse to test Einstein’s theory is an example. The final results represent a meeting of the two, often resulting in a version of the hypothesis that has been modified to incorporate learnings from the research findings. In Einstein’s case, this was not necessary. In this manner, science proceeds dialectically between the two directions, building an increasingly reliable model of the world.
  3. Conspiracy theories represent a mind-to-world direction of fit. They consist of hypotheses that cannot be verified due to the nefarious actions of the actors involved. They are presented as truths despite their lack of evidence, and these presentations are protected by the right of free speech. Because there is no mechanism for governing or qualifying conspiracy theories, there is no limit to the outrageousness of their claims. When such claims are converted to headlines, they garner attention, which in turn attracts advertisers, which funds the media that publishes them. This has materially adverse effects on any liberal democracy that relies on news media to inform public decision-making.

As one can see, the ethics of news reporting and conspiracy theories are diametrically opposed. This presents a challenge to news organizations that wish to maintain the integrity of their mission. The fact that people are promoting conspiracy theories is something that is happening in the world. As such, it warrants reporting. When these theories are labeled as such, however, conspiracy theorists claim that is all part of the conspiracy. They also claim that the news outlets in question are biased against them, that they aren’t getting their fair share of the coverage. We have left logic behind and are now firmly in the domain of rhetoric. In the absence not just of evidence, but of any obligation to provide evidence, the most brazen voices win.

This is not OK. It is why our educational system needs to prioritize the teaching of critical thinking. Here both the right and the left need to be taken to task. The right continues to use conspiracy theories to restrict such efforts. The left uses political correctness to the same ends. Neither trusts that students will develop responsible habits through open dialog. The best way to meet this challenge, in my view, is to engage students in directed research projects that use the two-way direction of fit to investigate issues of interest and concern.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Unsplash

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If Inertia is Not Your Friend Then Time is Your Enemy

If Inertia is Not Your Friend Then Time is Your Enemy

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore


As managers, because we are always in the middle of something, we can easily forget how much our operating model depends on inertia for its success. We count on our supply chain to deliver more or less as promised, we expect our quarterly bookings to be pretty much as forecasted, and we count on our customer churn to be within its normal range. This is the world of the Performance Zone and the Productivity Zone, one we measure largely based on its financial performance, something that is made possible by inertia, the tendency of objects in motion to continue in motion, albeit with well-timed well-directed boosts from ourselves and our partners.

Disruptive innovation breaks this pattern. When successful, it can generate spectacular momentum with early adopters, but that fizzles out when things hit the chasm. The whole point of crossing the chasm is to restart the engine of inertia, first around a single compelling use case in a single beachhead target market, then building out to adjacent use cases and segments. Wherever inertia can get established, reliable supply chains, forecastable bookings, and manageable churn will follow.

But here is the thing to keep in mind while this effort is underway: the clock is ticking! That’s why we say, when inertia is not your friend, time is your enemy. As a consequence, whenever you are managing anything disruptive, be that an external offering to customers or an internal revamping of your business model, operating model, or infrastructure model, you must prioritize time to tipping point over all other variables.

The single most valuable tactic for staying on top of your time budget is establishing a cadence of weekly commits. Each commit is tied to a change in state that will be brought about within the next seven days, each change in state representing a meaningful step towards the tipping point. You can’t afford to ignore your finances, but do not let financial metrics distract you from prioritizing time to tipping point. Until you have established inertial momentum, financial performance is ephemeral, and not a good predictor of business health.

Finally, because weekly commits is a challenging discipline, it is critical to enlist your team in the higher cause that warrants extraordinary efforts on their behalf. It does no good to shame people who have missed a commit. Rather the motto is win or learn. Either make the commit and take the next step, or understand the root cause of why you missed the commit and adjust accordingly. Do not get discouraged. Be resilient.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Gemini, Geoffrey Moore

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How to Design a Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad User Experience

How to Design a Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad User Experience

GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore


Some of you may know that early in my career I taught English at the college level. The freshman writing requirement was always a challenge as textbook publishers struggled valiantly to find some reading material that would actually help students write better. One of their best efforts was an essay titled “How to Write an F Paper.” It turns out we learn better from failure than from success—who knew?

With that thought in mind, and taking liberties with the title of one of my favorite children’s books, I want to review an actual user experience delivered to me by the manufacturer of a luxury automobile. The vehicle itself performs admirably, so kudos to the product engineers. It is the customer experience team that needs to be taken to the woodshed.

Here’s how the experience starts. I get in my car, start it, and back out of my garage, benefiting as always from the rear camera system. The system stays on when I shift into drive until I get onto the road and have gone perhaps fifty yards. At that point, the multimedia display presents the following:

An update is ready for installation on your multimedia system. The following conditions must be agreed to before installation.
(READ NOW) (LATER)

Well, I am driving the car, so I don’t think READ NOW is a very good option. I hit LATER, the screen returns to normal, and I get on with my day. To tell the truth, I forget about the whole experience until the next day when, after backing out of my garage and getting onto the road, I get a replay of the same message. Astoundingly, I am driving my car again, so again I push LATER.

Now, as my spouse will testify, sometimes I am a slow learner, so it is not until the better part of a week has passed that I realize the only time I am going to get this message is the first time I start the car in the morning and have driven around fifty yards. At this point, I decide to pull over and push READ. Here is what I got in reply:

Software update for your infotainment system — In order to read the terms and conditions, please park the vehicle safely, switch off the ignition and apply the parking brake.

Well, as it turns out, the reason I got in my car and drove that first fifty yards is that I actually have someplace I need to get to on time, so the idea of switching off the ignition does not appeal. I go back, push the LATER button (feeling a bit like Neo in the Matrix at this point), sub-vocalize a few choice words for the vendor, and carry on with my day.

I won’t testify as to how many days after I had the same introductory message appear and pushed LATER because you guessed it, I actually had somewhere to go and wanted to arrive there on time. But, one day I had the opportunity to be parking somewhere for a good while, so that day I did not push either button until I got to the lot. (“You can fool some of the people all the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”) Once parked, I did switch off my ignition and applied the parking brake, and was rewarded with the following messages.

Software update for your installation system

Notes
The installation process requires several minutes and cannot be canceled or closed. Individual functions and buttons in the vehicle are not available for use during the installation or their use is limited. The multimedia display does not support display messages.

In the unlikely event of a technical error during installation, functional restrictions of the multimedia system and the above-mentioned functions may persist and make it necessary to consult a workshop.

This is what happens when you let the legal team review the customer communications text. Fresh from their latest efforts with the Safe Harbor statement from the prior quarter’s earnings call, they are fiercely protecting their enterprise from any and every liability risk. Heartwarming as these words were, they actually felt they were not protection enough because they were followed by:

Warnings

During installation of this update, the multimedia system is not available. In particular, this includes systems such as the navigation system, phone, reversing camera, 360 camera, Active Parking Assist, Remote Parking Assist, PARKTRONIC, and the switch for DYNAMIC SELECT.

There is an increased risk of accident.

Installing the update while operating the vehicle may distract you from the traffic situation.

There is an increased risk of accident.

Carry out the installation

And yes, that last line is a call to action, clearly meant to benefit from the wave of inspiration created by the earlier sentences. My only surprise was that it did not append the phrase “at your own risk.”

Now, to be fair, I did carry out the installation, and it took about seven minutes or so, and it was fine. So again, the product engineers know what they are doing. But where in the name of all that is holy is the customer experience engineering? Who in their right mind would ever want their customers—and remember this is a luxury vehicle with some pretty high-end customers—to go through such an experience? And most importantly, what are the takeaways that will keep us from going down the same path?

Here are three that come to mind:

  1. Design the experience. Work backward from the end in mind, making sure each element is contributing to the desired outcome.
  2. Test the experience. Make this a real-world test, not a lab test. Recruit vehicle owners to participate. Capture their feedback.
  3. Eliminate friction. All hygiene processes entail some amount of friction. In such situations, your job is not to delight your customers here but rather to avoid annoying them. Do so by respecting their time.

In this case, what if the car company had sent me an email first? That could have included all their liability stuff. It also could coach me on when and how to best install the update. Once I replied I had read the stuff, then they could have sent a much simpler message over the multimedia system, or maybe just triggered the download on my behalf when my car was safely in my garage. The point is, there was clearly a better way, and just as clearly, nobody at the car company cared enough to advocate for it.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

Image Credit: Pexels, Geoffrey Moore

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