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Crossing the Possibility Space

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Crossing the Possibility Space

GUEST POST from Dennis Stauffer

Innovators are those who push themselves to move from what’s currently possible to what they hope will become possible—if they can make it happen. Doing that means crossing the space—that possibility space—between the two.

It’s the space Steve Jobs entered when he developed the iPhone, and where Elon Musk ventured when he launched SpaceX. It’s the space Florence Nightingale stepped into when she invented modern nursing and hospital cleanliness. The space Marie Curie crossed when she discovered radioactivity. And, that Muhammad Yunus was exploring when he created microloans to support third world entrepreneurs.

It’s a space roamed by countless inventors, scientists, entrepreneurs, change agents, social reformers—and perhaps people like you. This possibility space can be treacherous. Failure is common. Many never make it across. But for those with the courage to try and the personal capabilities to navigate through it, it’s an exciting journey and the rewards are immense.
To innovate successfully, you must be willing to step into that space, and know how to make your way through it. That often requires innovation tools and strategies. But above all, it takes a certain mindset—an innovator mindset.

An innovator mindset is your ticket across this possibility space, and the compass you use to navigate your way through it. It’s a mindset that helps you decide what you need to pack for the trip and how to find your way past those inevitable obstacles. It’s believing in the value of imagination over knowledge, in the courage to take risks, in a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges ahead, and an openness to understanding the world in entirely new ways.

What possibility space would you like to cross? In your work and in your life? What are your dreams and aspirations? Are you ready to get started?

A video version of this post is included below:

Image Credit: Pixabay

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Balancing Creativity and Feasibility in Innovation

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Balancing Creativity and Feasibility in Innovation

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

Innovation. The very word pulsates with the promise of progress, often conjuring visions of breakthroughs that reshape industries and improve lives. Yet, beneath the glamour of the “aha!” moment lies a truth often overlooked: a brilliant idea, no matter how disruptive, is merely a whisper in the wind until it can be brought to tangible reality. This is the central paradox, the vital tension, at the heart of truly impactful innovation: the intricate dance between unbridled creativity and grounded feasibility.

Far too often, organizations stumble by overemphasizing one aspect at the expense of the other. Some become playgrounds for “innovation theater,” where whiteboard sessions brim with fantastical concepts, yet none ever see the light of day. These companies generate a flurry of ideas but lack the rigor to assess and execute them. Conversely, others are so risk-averse and steeped in pragmatism that their innovation becomes painfully incremental. They prioritize what’s immediately achievable, effectively stifling any truly transformative thinking and missing the larger opportunities that emerge from challenging the status quo.

“Ideas are easy. Execution is everything.” – John Doerr, Kleiner Perkins

The Indispensable Partnership: Creativity & Feasibility

Imagine creativity as the boundless ocean – vast, deep, and full of unexplored possibilities. It’s the engine of divergent thinking, pushing us to challenge assumptions, question norms, and explore uncharted territories. It asks, “What if? What else could we do? How might we completely reimagine this?”

Feasibility, then, is the experienced navigator and the robust ship. It represents convergent thinking, meticulously evaluating constraints, assessing available resources, and charting a realistic, sustainable course. It asks, “Can we truly build this? Is it sustainable at scale? Do we have the necessary resources and capabilities? What are the inherent risks, and how can we mitigate them?”

The magic happens not when one dominates the other, but when they engage in a continuous, iterative dialogue. An initial creative spark is immediately subjected to a feasibility lens. This check doesn’t kill the idea; rather, it often sparks *new* creative solutions to overcome identified obstacles, refine the concept, or pivot towards an even stronger, viable solution. It’s a cyclical process, a perpetual feedback loop where each refines and strengthens the other.

Case Study 1: Apple’s iPhone – Synthesizing Vision with Viability

Apple’s iPhone – Synthesizing Vision with Viability

When Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone in 2007, it wasn’t just another mobile phone. It was a audacious creative leap – a seamless convergence of a phone, a widescreen iPod, and a breakthrough internet device, all controlled by a revolutionary multi-touch interface. The vision was to eliminate physical buttons, create an intuitive operating system from scratch, and integrate a vast, extensible application ecosystem.

However, the true genius of Apple wasn’t just in the audacious creative vision; it was in their unparalleled mastery of feasibility. They didn’t just dream big; they possessed the engineering prowess, supply chain expertise, and manufacturing discipline to turn that dream into a polished, mass-market reality. They painstakingly solved immense technical hurdles: perfecting the responsive multi-touch screen, miniaturizing powerful processors, optimizing battery life for constant connectivity, and building a robust, scalable software platform (iOS) that could attract developers. This wasn’t merely invention; it was the meticulous synthesis of creative foresight with an unwavering commitment to practical execution and scalability. Apple understood that for the creative vision to truly disrupt, it had to be undeniably *feasible*.

Case Study 2: Blockbuster vs. Netflix – The Peril of Myopic Feasibility

Blockbuster vs. Netflix – The Peril of Myopic Feasibility

Consider the stark contrast between Blockbuster and Netflix. Blockbuster, once the reigning king of video rentals, was deeply anchored in the feasibility of its existing physical store model. Their enormous physical infrastructure, established supply chains, and predictable revenue from late fees represented a very profitable, tangible business. When a nascent Netflix proposed a mail-order DVD service (a creative new approach), Blockbuster famously dismissed it, seeing it as a niche, unfeasible threat to their dominant brick-and-mortar empire.

Netflix, on the other hand, embraced a creative vision of convenience and accessibility that challenged the norm. They started with a relatively simple, feasible model (DVDs by mail) and continually iterated, demonstrating the feasibility of streaming and eventually content production. Blockbuster’s fatal flaw was allowing the perceived short-term feasibility and profitability of their existing model to blind them to the disruptive creative potential of a new one. Their inability to pivot and invest in a new, feasible model for digital distribution, even when the market signals were clear, led to their eventual demise. Netflix, by continuously balancing its creative vision for entertainment delivery with the evolving feasibility of technology, conquered the market.

Cultivating the Innovation Sweet Spot

So, how can organizations consciously foster this crucial balance? It demands a deliberate, integrated approach:

  • Embrace Structured Ideation & Rigorous Filtering: Encourage boundless brainstorming sessions, but immediately follow with structured evaluation frameworks that assess both creative potential (novelty, value proposition) and practical viability (technical feasibility, market fit, resource requirements).
  • Assemble Cross-Functional Catalysts: Break down silos. Bring together diverse perspectives – creative thinkers (designers, strategists), technical experts (engineers, data scientists), and operational pragmatists (finance, supply chain). This diversity ensures ideas are challenged and refined from all angles.
  • Prototype and Test Relentlessly (Lean & Agile): Don’t strive for perfection upfront. Build Minimum Viable Products (MVPs) and prototypes quickly to test core assumptions about both user desirability (creative validation) and technical/business feasibility. Iterate rapidly based on real-world feedback, making feasibility an ongoing learning process, not a final gate.
  • Develop Clear Innovation Pathways: Establish transparent stages in your innovation funnel where ideas are not just generated but rigorously evaluated and refined against both creative aspiration and practical viability criteria. This ensures a healthy pipeline of both breakthrough and incremental innovations.
  • Cultivate a Culture of Psychological Safety: People must feel empowered to propose radical ideas without fear of immediate dismissal, and equally safe to voice genuine concerns about feasibility without being labeled as negative or unsupportive. Open, honest dialogue is paramount.

Ultimately, true innovation isn’t about conjuring magic; it’s about disciplined imagination. It’s understanding that the most brilliant ideas are only half the battle. The other, often more challenging half, is the art and science of transforming that brilliance into tangible value for customers and the organization. By consciously nurturing the dynamic interplay between creativity and feasibility, organizations can transcend mere ideation and consistently deliver impactful innovation that truly reshapes the future.

Extra Extra: Because innovation is all about change, Braden Kelley’s human-centered change methodology and tools are the best way to plan and execute the changes necessary to support your innovation and transformation efforts — all while literally getting everyone all on the same page for change. Find out more about the methodology and tools, including the book Charting Change by following the link. Be sure and download the TEN FREE TOOLS while you’re here.

Image credit: Pexels

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Balancing Data-Driven Decision Making with Intuition in Innovation

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Balancing Data-Driven Decision Making with Intuition in Innovation

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

In the fast-paced world of innovation, leaders are often faced with the challenge of making critical decisions that can determine the success or failure of their initiatives. The rise of big data and advanced analytics has given organizations the tools to drive decisions based on empirical evidence. However, the role of intuition—those gut feelings honed by experience and tacit knowledge—remains irreplaceable. In this article, we will explore how to balance data-driven decision making with intuition, providing insights through two revealing case studies.

Case Study 1: Apple and the iPhone

When Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone in 2007, it revolutionized mobile technology. But this groundbreaking innovation wasn’t solely the product of data-driven decision making.

Data-Driven Insights

  • Apple analyzed the shortcomings of existing mobile phones in terms of user experience and functionality.
  • Market data indicated a growing interest in smartphones with internet capabilities, touchscreens, and multimedia features.
  • Advanced analytics helped Apple understand usage patterns, which influenced design elements like the touchscreen interface.

Intuitive Leadership

  • Steve Jobs’ intuition played a critical role in deciding to pursue the development of the iPhone despite potential risks.
  • He envisioned a device that combined a phone, an iPod, and an internet communicator, a concept unheard of at the time.
  • Jobs made bold decisions on user experience features based on his instinctual understanding of what users would love, rather than what traditional market research might suggest.

The iPhone’s success illustrates how data-driven insights and intuitive leadership can complement each other to bring about transformative innovation.

Case Study 2: Netflix’s Transition to Streaming

Netflix has become synonymous with streaming entertainment, but the company’s journey from DVD rental service to streaming giant was not an obvious path.

Data-Driven Insights

  • Netflix leveraged data from its DVD rental service to understand customer preferences and viewing habits.
  • Subscriber data indicated a shift in consumer demand towards digital content delivery, driven by increasing internet speeds and access to devices.
  • Advanced algorithms and predictive analytics were used to recommend content, enhancing user engagement and satisfaction.

Intuitive Leadership

  • Reed Hastings, co-founder, and CEO of Netflix relied on his intuition when deciding to invest heavily in streaming technology, a risky move at that time.
  • Hastings intuitively understood that consumer behavior was shifting towards a preference for on-demand content, even when the data was still emerging.
  • His vision for the future of entertainment included producing original content, an idea driven in equal parts by intuition and data analytics of viewing trends.

By balancing data insights with intuitive foresight, Netflix was able to successfully pivot its business model, fundamentally changing the entertainment landscape.

Strategies for Balancing Data and Intuition

  • Embrace Collaborative Decision-Making: Encourage teams to integrate both data and intuition when making decisions. Promote discussions that leverage diverse perspectives and experiences.
  • Cultivate a Test-and-Learn Culture: Implement policies that allow for experimentation based on intuition while using data to validate or refine these ideas.
  • Leverage Technology Wisely: Use advanced analytics tools to gather actionable insights, but don’t let them overshadow the value of human intuition and creativity.
  • Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Encourage ongoing learning for leaders and teams to enhance their intuitive abilities and stay updated with data analytics advancements.

Conclusion

In the quest for innovation, it is not a question of choosing between data-driven decision making and intuition. Rather, the key lies in finding the right balance, where data provides a solid foundation for insights and intuition injects creativity and foresight into the decision-making process. The cases of Apple and Netflix illustrate how the fusion of data and intuition can lead to groundbreaking innovations that redefine markets and industries. By adopting strategies that honor both elements, organizations can navigate uncertainty and foster a culture of sustained innovation.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pixabay

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Design Thinking in Product Development

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Driving Success through User-centric Design

Design Thinking in Product Development: Driving Success through User-centric Design

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

In today’s fast-paced and highly competitive market, businesses can no longer solely rely on creating products based on assumptions or mere technical feasibility. Instead, they need to embrace a user-centric approach that prioritizes the needs and desires of their target audience. This is where design thinking comes into play. Design thinking is a problem-solving methodology that emphasizes empathy, ideation, prototyping, and continuous iteration. By incorporating design thinking principles into product development, businesses can drive success by delivering products that truly resonate with their users. In this article, we will explore the concept of design thinking and present two case studies that exemplify its effectiveness in creating successful products.

Case Study 1: Apple iPhone – Revolutionizing the Smartphone Industry

The Apple iPhone serves as a remarkable example of how design thinking can drive success in product development. Before the iPhone was introduced in 2007, smartphones were typically bulky, complicated, and lacked an intuitive user interface. Apple understood the need for a revolutionary design that prioritized the user experience. By immersing themselves in the lives of potential users and empathizing with their frustrations, Apple’s team of designers identified key pain points such as complex navigation, limited functionality, and lack of touch-based interaction.

Applying the principles of design thinking, Apple ideated and prototyped various concepts until they arrived at the iconic iPhone design. They focused on simplicity, ease of use, and intuitive gestures, leading to the creation of a touchscreen interface that eliminated the need for physical keyboards. The iPhone’s user-centric design not only won over millions of users but also disrupted the entire smartphone industry. By prioritizing the needs and desires of users, Apple achieved unprecedented success and set new standards for smartphone design.

Case Study 2: Airbnb – Revolutionizing the Hospitality Industry

Airbnb, the popular accommodation platform, utilized design thinking to redefine the hospitality industry. The founders of Airbnb recognized that travelers were seeking unique, affordable, and personalized experiences rather than sterile hotel rooms. By observing potential users and conducting in-depth interviews, they empathized with the pain points of both guests and hosts, including lack of trust, limited options, and cumbersome booking processes.

Applying design thinking principles, Airbnb ideated innovative solutions that addressed these pain points. They created a platform that connected hosts and guests, allowing users to personalize their travel experiences. To instill trust, Airbnb introduced user profiles, reviews, and secure payment systems.

Furthermore, Airbnb continuously iterated its platform based on user feedback, driving greater success. This user-centric approach revolutionized the hospitality industry, empowering individuals to monetize their spaces and providing travelers with unique, affordable, and authentic accommodations.

Conclusion

Design thinking offers a powerful framework for businesses to optimize product development processes. The case studies of Apple iPhone and Airbnb demonstrate how incorporating the principles of design thinking leads to successful, user-centric products. By empathizing with users, identifying pain points, and continuously iterating, businesses can deliver products that not only meet but exceed user expectations. As the market becomes increasingly user-driven, organizations that embrace design thinking have a competitive edge in driving success through user-centric design.

SPECIAL BONUS: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Unsplash

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Disruptive Innovation vs. Sustaining Innovation

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Understanding the Difference

Disruptive Innovation vs. Sustaining Innovation

GUEST POST from Chateau G Pato

In today’s rapidly evolving business landscape, innovation is often seen as the key to success. Companies are constantly seeking ways to gain a competitive advantage and stay ahead of the curve. Two concepts that often come up in discussions about innovation are disruptive innovation and sustaining innovation. Understanding the difference between these two types of innovation is crucial for companies looking to navigate the ever-changing marketplace effectively. In this article, we will explore the distinctions between disruptive and sustaining innovation and provide two real-world case studies to illustrate their practical applications.

Disruptive Innovation

Disruptive innovation refers to the introduction of a new product, service, or business model that fundamentally changes the existing market dynamics. It often disrupts traditional industries, displacing established products or services. Disruptive innovations usually start by serving niche markets or addressing the needs of under-served customers, eventually gaining traction and undermining existing market leaders. They often offer unique value propositions or bring significant cost advantages, enabling them to capture previously overlooked customer segments.

One prominent case study of disruptive innovation is Uber. Before Uber entered the transportation industry, traditional taxi services dominated the market. However, Uber brought a revolutionary business model by leveraging technology to connect passengers directly with drivers using their own vehicles. This disruptive approach offered several advantages like lower fares, real-time tracking, and cashless payments, giving it a competitive edge over traditional taxi services. This innovation not only transformed the ride-hailing industry but also revolutionized urban transportation around the world.

Sustaining Innovation

In contrast to disruptive innovation, sustaining innovation refers to incremental improvements made to existing products, services, or business models. It focuses on enhancing features, quality, or performance, helping companies improve their current market position or maintain a competitive advantage. Sustaining innovation allows companies to meet customer demands, keep up with changing market trends, and strengthen their market share by appealing to existing customers.

Apple’s evolution in the smartphone industry provides a compelling case study for sustaining innovation. When the first iPhone was introduced in 2007, it completely transformed the mobile phone landscape. However, instead of betting everything on a single disruptive innovation, Apple consistently pursued sustaining innovation by releasing new iterations of the iPhone each year. These subsequent models offered incremental improvements like faster processors, better cameras, and enhanced user experiences. By continually enhancing their product, Apple was able to maintain its market dominance and keep customers engaged, despite fierce competition from rival smartphone manufacturers.

Understanding the Difference

Differentiating between disruptive and sustaining innovation is crucial for businesses looking to adapt and thrive in today’s dynamic market environment. Disruptive innovation represents breakthrough changes that challenge existing norms, while sustaining innovation represents iterative enhancements aimed at maintaining market leadership.

By understanding the difference between these two forms of innovation, companies can make informed decisions about their strategic direction. They can identify opportunities for disruptive innovation to explore new markets, attract under-served customers, and potentially disrupt established industries. Simultaneously, they can also focus on sustaining innovation to enhance their existing products or services, ensuring they stay relevant and competitive.

Conclusion

Disruptive innovation and sustaining innovation play distinct roles in driving business success. While disruptive innovation can revolutionize industries and create new markets, sustaining innovation is essential for maintaining market dominance and satisfying current customer demands. Striking the right balance between these two forms of innovation can shape a company’s growth and longevity in an ever-evolving market.

Bottom line: Futurology is not fortune telling. Futurists use a scientific approach to create their deliverables, but a methodology and tools like those in FutureHacking™ can empower anyone to engage in futurology themselves.

Image credit: Pexels

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Apple Announces Name Change to App-le

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Apple Announces Name Change to App-le

First Apple changed its name from Apple Computer to Apple to better reflect a business focus that was extending beyond computers to music players, smartphones, digital music sales, and more.

And last week Apple announced a flurry of new products including:

  • iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s plus
  • All new Apple TV
  • iPad Pro
  • watchOS 2
  • iOS9

What was clear from the announcements is that Apple’s view the future of computing and entertainment is an App-centric one.

First Apple created Apps for the iPod. Anyone remember the iPod? Apple barely does. They still make iPods, but they’ve been dropped from the main menu on Apple’s web site and relegated to the text links at the bottom of the page. Then they create Apps for the iPhone and the iPad and the watch. And this past week Apple announced their App-centric vision for the future of television.

What is this vision?

It’s pretty simple really. Want to watch major league baseball (MLB) on your television, buy the MLB app. Want to watch HBO, buy the app. Cartoon Network? Get the app. You get the idea.

Why does Apple have this vision?

This App-centric vision of entertainment grows their ecosystem and enables Apple to make money not only from hardware sales, but also from commissions in the sale of all of these Apps. And as people buy more apps, they lock themselves further into Apple’s hardware, by design.

Apple’s App-centric vision for the future of television is good for creators of popular, quality content like HBO, the National Football League (NFL), Premier League Football, CNN, BBC, and for movie-centric aggregators (Netflix, Amazon). The evolving App-centric approach to television also has the benefit to the content creators of enabling them to build Apps that yes play full-screen video (what people expect), but also to integrate information, commerce and social elements into their Applications as they see fit. The downside is that content creators will lose the perceived safety that cable network bundling offers.

But the smartest, best run content creators are more likely to gradually embrace this App-centric possible future, and as a result Apple’s App-centric television future is likely to be a disaster for cable companies and other television-centric aggregators (Hulu, Sling). Why would you need an intermediary like a cable company when you can go straight to the source?

Cable companies could however try to beat Apple to the App Store model and potentially also beat them to the Spotify model for television if they move quickly. But are speed and courage what cable companies are known for?

YouTube and Facebook could also be big winners in Apple’s App-centric television future as both sites could become the home for a treasure trove of free sample shows, a place for people to discover new content to subscribe to. Facebook has made a big push into video the past few years, making this potential area of growth possible for them.

Apple missed the App-centric transition in music, and they had to go out and overpay for Beats to try and catch up to Spotify and others. They’ve also missed the early days of the App-centric transition in paid video apps as well, with Netflix enjoying the early success. They don’t want to get completely left behind, so they are making their big push towards an App-centric television future. The only question is how?

Will Apple look to create a subscription service like Netflix or Spotify as their App, or focus on promoting content creator Apps (NFL, CNN, etc.) through an App Store, both, or something completely different?

No matter which direction Apple chooses, it’s clear that with Apple it is all about the apps. So will Apple change its name to App-le? Probably not. But, they’ve made it very

clear that their vision for the future is an App-centric one. Will they be able to realize it?

Image credit: mashable.com

This article originally appeared on Linkedin


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Can Windows 10 Disrupt Android and Get Microsoft Back in Handset Game?

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Microsoft Tries to Disrupt Mobile Phone Market

Can Windows 10 Disrupt Android and Get Microsoft Back in Handset Game?I came across an article on Mashable recently highlighting a new Microsoft experiment. It highlights something that Microsoft has prototyped to test as part of their strategy to regain momentum in the mobile phone market by focusing on markets outside the United States where the first generation of the smartphone adoption battle hasn’t already been decided.

The first Microsoft branded phones are now appearing in the market as the relevance of the Nokia brand in the mobile phone market has nearly completely disappeared. With a single digit market share, Microsoft has to do something disruptive to get back in the game and get some value out of their huge Nokia acquisition. Most people would say that doing something disruptive is outside of Microsoft’s comfort zone, but there are examples to the contrary where Microsoft has been more innovative than Google or Apple, so nothing is impossible.

So enough buildup. What exactly is Microsoft fooling around with as a potential strategy to get back in the global smartphone market?

It is this…

Microsoft is working with Xiaomi to prove that it is possible to bring Windows to Android hardware. The technical details aren’t all that important, the bigger question is whether Android handset owners would consider doing this or not.

The big value proposition highlighted in the Mashable article is that Windows is less hungry for resources than Android and so especially for people with older smartphones the switch could make their handset feel more responsive. Someone switching like this probably wouldn’t make Microsoft any immediate money, but of course the hope would be that when they upgraded that they would choose a Microsoft OS handset for their next smartphone.

As someone who ditched his Android phone for a Nokia Lumia phone running Windows Phone and never looked back, I can confirm that Windows Phone is better than Android (althought the App selection is much smaller).

Given that Windows Phone biggest weakness is probably App availability, Microsoft better do everything they can to convert phones over to their new Windows 10 OS, other way that gap will never close. Will this experiment be fully unleashed? Will it work? Could Microsoft disrupt the smartphone market and get back in the game with this approach?

I guess only time will tell.

In the meantime, if you want to see more, check out the video above and work on your Chinese at the same time.

If you’re not sure what I meant by seamless computing when I referred to it above, I encourage you to check out my previous article – Cloud Computing is Dead, Long Live the Cloud! (which is also available as a narrated audio file)


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Is there a market for Smartwatches? Can Apple create one?

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Stikkee 3 - Apple Watch

Okay, it’s been a week since the Apple Watch was announced, and do you know what the world’s most popular wearable is likely to be for 2014/2015?

It’s not the iWatch, but the iPhone 6, which is breaking the pre-sales records of the iPhone 5.

No, it’s not an iWatch. Don’t you dare call it that!

We’re Apple and we’ve decided that it’s far too sophisticated and exclusive to be an iWatch.

Oh, and we’ve also decided that you must own at least an iPhone 5 to be privileged enough to wear an Apple Watch.

Okay, so instantly Apple has reduced the potential market size for the Apple Watch from 6 Billion people to about 100 million people (based on statisticbrain’s numbers).

Now, layer on top of this the fact that in a YPulse survey of millenials, only 32% stated that they wear a watch regularly.

$96 million of smartwatches were sold between October and July according to CNet at an average price of $189 (and dropping fast) – often bundled with a phone – and with Samsung wrapping up 78% of the market. If you do the math, that’s just over 500,000 units, less than 1% of the likely iPhone 5 sales over the same period.

The Apple Watch starts at $349.

But wait, we’re not done yet.

Consider that Samsung has become a faster, nimbler innovator in some ways than Apple and are shipping a new version of their smartwatch next month, up to six months before the Apple Watch is expected to be available – oh, and you’ll be able to use their new watch to make phone calls and run lots of wellness apps (including some from Nike). Plus Samsung will probably launch an even more capable version shortly after the Apple Watch starts shipping.

Apple’s already playing catchup in the smartphone market and they haven’t even shipped their first unit.

So if Apple is entering a small market with a declining average unit price against a more nimble competitor, what rabbit do they have up their sleeve to grow the market and increase their stock price?

What will make the Apple Watch a must have?

The iPod was a must have because it allowed you to carry your entire music library around with you after easily organizing it on your PC and syncing it to the iPod. After that you could then easily navigate thousands of songs on the device with the handy click wheel.

The iPhone was a must have because it became the world’s most widely adopted personal, wearable computer. The iPhone disrupted the balance of power in the mobile phone industry and allowed device makers to start offering whatever applications they wanted (unencumbered by the carriers). The iPhone also disrupted the digital camera market, the Flip (super portable, simple video cameras), and the dedicated GPS market.

Other wearables are on the decline.

iPod sales in Q4 2013 were down 52% from Q4 2012.

Google Glasses got a lot of buzz early on, but interest has fizzled.

Fitbits and Nike Fuelbands have lost their luster and momentum.

Even the iPad, which became a must have after Apple solved the Value Translation riddle and properly highlighted its benefits as a more relaxing and accessible computing device, has seen sales fall the past two quarters as the large screen phones have started to become big enough to begin decreasing the need for a separate tablet. If you’re keeping score the iPad disrupted the gaming industry and challenged people to think deeply about their computing device preferences.

Now back to the Apple Watch…

Can a smartwatch really unseat the mother of all wearables, the smartphone?

In an era of declining interest in watches, can Apple change people’s behavior and lead a resurgence in watch wearing?

These are all very tough questions, but they are not tough challenges that Apple hasn’t faced before.

It’s easy to forget that the iPod didn’t become a runaway success until two years after its launch (with the launch of the PC version of iTunes), and that it took a year for Apple to really ramp up sales of the iPhone (after the launch of the App Store), or that Apple got killed in the press after the announcement of the iPad but figured out how to translate its value by the time they started shipping it.

So, is Apple up to the challenge this time?

After their recent string of game-changing innovations the pressure is on!

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Apple iPhone 6 Killer App Revealed

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Apple iPhone 6 Killer App RevealedWhile most people are focused on what the new Apple iPhone 6 hardware might look like and what new gizmos it might have, the real killer app for Apple’s latest refresh of their flagship mobile device will be an App and a little tiny NFC chipset.

Rumored for the iPhone 5 (rumors which were heightened by Apple’s acquisition and subsequent inclusion of fingerprint sensor technology), mobile payments may finally be a built-in feature of the Apple’s newest handset, the iPhone 6.

Apple has been reportedly out talking to the likes of Visa, American Express, Nordstrom and others, and if that is all true then expect part of Apple’s Tuesday September 9th announcement to be focused on the new mobile payment capabilities of the iPhone 6.

I was one of those who thought that mobile payments might launch as part of the iPhone 5’s capabilities, but obviously the technology, or more likely the relationships and contracts, were not ready for prime time a year ago.

Will mobile payments authenticated by your fingerprint finally appear in the iPhone 6?

If so, soon we will finally be able to stop carrying around wallets and switch to money clips and mobile phones, as such a feature will not only replace credit cards, but loyalty cards, insurance cards, and more.

Yes, Samsung may have done it first with the Galaxy S5, but you know Apple will do it bigger (and better).

I guess we’ll find out next week.

Image credit: Ricardo Del Toro


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Fingerprints of mCommerce Success on iPhone 5S?

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Fingerprints of mCommerce Success on iPhone 5SLast August I wrote about Apple’s pending acquisition of Authentec, a biometric authentication company (which has since closed). At the time Apple was in a real hurry to complete the acquisition and it made me wonder whether Authentec’s fingerprint authentication technology would make it into the home button of the iPhone 5 and eventually into the iPad and the iPad Mini. It didn’t.

But today, as part of the new iPhone 5S, Apple has finally integrated this biometric technology into their flagship mobile phone.

Why does this tiny little sensor represent such a potential sea change for the mobile industry?

Let’s look at all of the ways that this technology addition makes the iPhone more valuable than other phones.

1. Security and Personalization

By integrating the Authentec technology into the iPhone 5S home button, and eventually the iPad and the iPad Mini, Apple can not only create a handy way (no pun intended) to eliminate the need for remembering passwords, but also enable people to make their devices easily personalized for MULTIPLE users of the same device.

But if Apple takes advantage of all the purported abilities of the Authentec technology, the new iPhone 5S may also have the ability to recognize multiple fingers from a single individual, allowing for the home button to potentially achieve multiple functions – like the multiple button mouse.

In practical terms, this means for example that if your five-year-old gets a hold of your iPhone 5S, or you let them have it to keep them occupied in a restaurant, the iPhone 5S could potentially keep them from making phone calls, opening your work emails, etc. or just limit them just to accessing the Apps you grant them access to. But there is also no reason why apps like Netflix could also become personalized based on whose finger was used.

And maybe finally Apple will finally introduce some parental controls on the iPad. It’s maddening as a parent that my only choice on our iPad is to either give my daughter full access to Safari, or no access to Safari and that I have to go in and re-enable Safari when I want to use it. What decade is this? Hopefully iOS 7 will fix this.

2. iTunes and App Store Authentication

For Apple, there are also legal and financial benefits from adding fingerprint authentication, as it will help to prevent (or at least reduce) unauthorized iTunes purchases made by account hackers or children playing with their parent’s iPhone 5S (or upcoming iPad 5). Fingerprint authentication in iPhone 5S and iPad 5 may also encourage people to begin utilizing Apple’s Passport.

3. Universal mCommerce Authentication v1.0

It is embarrassing that the United States is so far behind the rest of the world when it comes to mCommerce. Mostly this has been because the financial services companies (Citibank, Bank of America, Chase, Wells Fargo, American Express, Mastercard, Visa, Verisign, etc.) and mobile phone carriers (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, etc.) have been fighting to control mCommerce in the United States to the detriment of United States citizens and consumers and mobile innovation. Shame on you!

The new iPhone 5S might help to reignite mobile innovation and mCommerce activity in the United Sates. And given that Apple makes most of their money selling hardware and are facing a market share challenge from Android and Windows 8 devices, it is in Apple’s best interest to open up a fingerprint sensor API in iOS 7 for third party app developers to utilize. This would maximize the potential differentiation and hardware sales, and the incremental device lock-in offered by this new capability.

But there are also increased revenue opportunities for Apple, as integrated fingerprint authentication is likely to lead to an increase in impulse iTunes and App Store purchases. Why will a fingerprint sensor likely lead to an increase in music and app purchases for Apple? Simple, it will make it easier and faster for people to buy things from iTunes or the App Store, and give consumers less time to change their mind after they get the urge to buy something.

One thing I didn’t see mentioned in Apple’s iPhone 5S announcement was the inclusion of any kind of Near Field Communication (NFC) capability in this latest flagship model. So v1.0 of Apple’s universal mCommerce authentication capabilities may only include authentication of eCommerce purchases made via mobile web sites or mobile apps. Without NFC I’m not sure exactly how authenticated purchases in the physical world would be made, short of a scanner reading a post-authentication-generated QR Code or something like that. Of course there is a way (or several) and mobile innovators surely will find them until NFC is incorporated into future iPhones and iPads.


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4. Universal mCommerce Authentication v2.0

Once NFC capabilities are added to the iPhone, then people like Square, but also traditional banks, and even Google could add iPhone 5S fingerprint authentication to apps for mCommerce for users to download and install on their phone. This represents a HUGE opportunity for Square and a challenge obviously for the established players. It will be interesting to see whether Apple will be the first to integrate fingerprint authentication together with NFC or whether Samsung or someone else will beat them to it, or even whether it might be able to be added via a 3rd party case or backing for the phone. What do you think?

Wrapup

The initial iPhone turned your finger into a more useful tool for the digital world. The new iPhone 5S turns your finger into a key, and how many locks it will help you open remains to be seen. Let’s hope that in the same way that the iPhone broke the stranglehold that the mobile carriers had on application innovation on the handset, the new iPhone 5S will create a new wave of mobile innovation in the mCommerce space.

Let’s hope that Apple’s new iPhone 5S gives new meaning to the phrase ‘Digital Innovation’.

Okay this time the pun is intended, and hopefully it will help some of you think of new possibilities for digit-driven computing.

Keep innovating!

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