In the world of innovation, we are always looking for the next big thing—the technology that will fundamentally change how we solve problems, create value, and shape the future. For the past several decades, that technology has been the classical computer, with its exponential increase in processing power. But a new paradigm is on the horizon, one that promises to unlock capabilities previously thought impossible: quantum computing. While it may seem like a distant, esoteric concept, innovators and business leaders who ignore quantum computing are doing so at their own peril. This isn’t just about faster computers; it’s about a complete re-imagining of what is computationally possible.
The core difference is simple but profound. A classical computer is like a single light switch—it can be either ON or OFF (1 or 0). A quantum computer, however, uses qubits that can be ON, OFF, or in a state of superposition, meaning it’s both ON and OFF at the same time. This ability, combined with entanglement, allows quantum computers to perform calculations in parallel and tackle problems that are intractable for even the most powerful supercomputers. The shift is not incremental; it is a fundamental leap in computational power, moving from a deterministic, linear process to a probabilistic, multi-dimensional one.
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Quantum as an Innovation Engine: Solving the Unsolvable
For innovators, quantum computing is not a threat to be feared, but a tool to be mastered. It provides a new lens through which to view and solve the world’s most complex challenges. The problems that are “hard” for classical computers—like simulating complex molecules, optimizing global supply chains, or cracking certain types of encryption—are the very problems where quantum computers are expected to excel. By leveraging this technology, innovators can create new products, services, and business models that were simply impossible before.
Key Areas Where Quantum Will Drive Innovation
Revolutionizing Material Science: Simulating how atoms and molecules interact is a notoriously difficult task for classical computers. Quantum computers can model these interactions with unprecedented accuracy, accelerating the discovery of new materials, catalysts, and life-saving drugs in fields from energy storage to pharmaceuticals.
Optimizing Complex Systems: From optimizing financial portfolios to routing delivery trucks in a complex network, optimization problems become exponentially more difficult as the number of variables increases. Quantum algorithms can solve these problems much faster, leading to incredible efficiencies and cost savings.
Fueling the Next Wave of AI: Quantum machine learning (QML) can process vast, complex datasets in ways that are impossible for classical AI. This could lead to more accurate predictive models, better image recognition, and new forms of artificial intelligence that can find patterns in data that humans and classical machines would miss.
Securing Our Digital Future: While quantum computing poses a threat to current encryption methods, it also offers a solution. Quantum cryptography promises to create uncrackable communication channels, leading to a new era of secure data transmission.
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Case Study 1: Accelerating Drug Discovery for a New Tomorrow
A major pharmaceutical company was struggling to develop a new drug for a rare disease. The traditional method involved months of painstaking laboratory experiments and classical computer simulations to model the interactions of a new molecule with its target protein. The sheer number of variables and possible molecular configurations made the process a slow and expensive trial-and-error loop, often with no clear path forward.
They partnered with a quantum computing research firm to apply quantum simulation algorithms. The quantum computer was able to model the complex quantum mechanical properties of the molecules with a level of precision and speed that was previously unattainable. Instead of months, the simulations were run in days. This allowed the human research team to rapidly narrow down the most promising molecular candidates, saving years of R&D time and millions of dollars. The quantum computer didn’t invent the drug, but it acted as a powerful co-pilot, guiding the human innovators to the most probable solutions and dramatically accelerating the path to a breakthrough.
This case study demonstrates how quantum computing can transform the bottleneck of complex simulation into a rapid discovery cycle, augmenting the human innovator’s ability to find life-saving solutions.
Case Study 2: Optimizing Global Logistics for a Sustainable Future
A global shipping and logistics company faced the monumental task of optimizing its entire network of ships, trucks, and warehouses. Factors like fuel costs, weather patterns, traffic, and delivery windows created a mind-bogglingly complex optimization problem. The company’s classical optimization software could only provide a suboptimal solution, leading to wasted fuel, delayed deliveries, and significant carbon emissions.
Recognizing the limitations of their current technology, they began to explore quantum optimization. By using a quantum annealer, a type of quantum computer designed for optimization problems, they were able to model the entire network simultaneously. The quantum algorithm found a more efficient route and scheduling solution that reduced fuel consumption by 15% and cut delivery times by an average of 10%. This innovation not only provided a significant competitive advantage but also had a profound positive impact on the company’s environmental footprint. It was an innovation that leveraged quantum computing to solve a business problem that was previously too complex for existing technology.
This example shows that quantum’s power to solve previously intractable optimization problems can lead to both significant cost savings and sustainable, planet-friendly outcomes.
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The Innovator’s Call to Action
The quantum revolution is not a distant sci-fi fantasy; it is a reality in its nascent stages. For innovators, the key is not to become a quantum physicist overnight, but to understand the potential of the technology and to start experimenting now. Here are the steps you must take to prepare for this new era:
Educate and Evangelize: Start a dialogue about quantum computing and its potential applications in your industry. Find internal champions who can explore this new frontier and evangelize its possibilities.
Find Your Partners: You don’t have to build your own quantum computer. Partner with academic institutions, research labs, or quantum-as-a-service providers to start running pilot projects on a cloud-based quantum machine.
Identify the Right Problems: Look for the “intractable” problems in your business—the optimization challenges, the material science hurdles, the data analysis bottlenecks—and see if they are a fit for quantum computing. These are the problems where a quantum solution will deliver a true breakthrough.
The greatest innovations are born from a willingness to embrace new tools and new ways of thinking. Quantum computing is the most powerful new tool we have ever seen. For the innovator of tomorrow, understanding and leveraging this technology will be the key to staying ahead. The quantum leap is upon us—are you ready to take it?
Disclaimer: This article speculates on the potential future applications of cutting-edge scientific research. While based on current scientific understanding, the practical realization of these concepts may vary in timeline and feasibility and are subject to ongoing research and development.
Image credit: Gemini
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What We Can Learn from Wildfire Fighters About Leading Through Uncertainty
GUEST POST from Robyn Bolton
What does a lightning strike in a Spanish forest have to do with your next leadership meeting? More than you think.
On June 14, 2014, lightning struck a forest on Spain’s northeast coast, only 60 miles from Barcelona. Within hours, flames 16 to 33 feet high raced out of control toward populated areas, threatening 27,000 acres of forest, an area larger than the city of Boston.
Everything – data, instincts, decades of firefighting doctrine – prioritized saving the entire forest and protecting the coastal towns.
Instead, the fire commanders chose to deliberately let 2,057 acres, roughly the size of Manhattan’s Central Park, burn.
The result? They saved the other 25,000 acres (an area the size of San Francisco), protected the coastal communities, and created a natural firebreak that would protect the region for decades. By accepting some losses, they prevented catastrophic ones.
The Fear Trap That’s Strangling Your Business
The Tivissa fire’s triumph happened because firefighters found the courage to escape what researchers call the “fear trap” – the tendency to focus exclusively on defending against known, measurable risks.
Despite research proving that defending against predictable, measurable risks through defensive strategies consistently fails in uncertain and dynamic scenarios, firefighter “best practices” continue to advocate this approach.
Sound familiar? It should. Most executives today are trapped in exactly this pattern.
We’re in the fire right now. Financial markets are yo-yoing, AI threatens to disrupt everything, and consumer behaviors are shifting.
Most executives are falling into the Fear Trap by doubling down on protecting their existing business and pouring resources into defending against predictable risks. Yet the real threats, the ones you can’t measure or model, continue to pound the business.
While you’re protecting last quarter’s wins, tomorrow’s disruption is spreading unchecked.
Four Principles for Creative Decision-Making Under Fire
The decision to cede certain areas wasn’t hasty but based on four principles enabling leaders in any situation to successfully navigate uncertainty.
1. A Predictable Situation is a Safe Situation.
Stop trying to control the uncontrollable. Standard procedures work in predictable situations but fail in unprecedented challenges.
Put it in Practice: Instead of creating endless contingency plans, build flexibility and agility into operations and decision-making.
2. Build Credibility Through Realistic Expectations.
Reducing uncertainty requires realism about what can be achieved. Fire commanders mapped out precisely which areas around Tivissa would burn and which would be saved, then communicated these hard truths and the considered trade-offs to officials and communities before implementing their strategy, building trust and preventing panic as the selected areas burned.
Put it in practice: Stop promising to protect everything and set realistic expectations about what you can control. Then communicate priorities, expectations, and trade-offs frequently, transparently, and clearly with all key stakeholders.
3. Include the future in your definition of success
Traditional firefighting protects immediate assets at risk. The Tivissa firefighters expanded this to include future resilience, recognizing that saving everything today could jeopardize the region tomorrow.
Put it in practice: Be transparent about how you define the Common Good in your organization, then reinforce it by making hard choices about where to compete and where to retreat. The goal isn’t to avoid all losses – it’s to maximize overall organizational health.
4. Use uncertainty to build for tomorrow.
Firefighters didn’t just accept that 2,057 acres would burn – they strategically chose which acres to let burn to create maximum future advantage, protecting the region for generations.
Put it in practice: Evaluate every response to uncertainty on whether it better positions you for future challenges. Leverage the disruption to build capabilities, market positions, and organizational structures that strengthen you for future uncertainty.
Your Next Move
When the wind shifted and the fire exploded, firefighters had to choose between defending everything (and likely losing it all) or accepting strategic losses to ensure overall wins.
You’re facing the same choice right now.
Like the firefighters, your breakthrough might come not from fighting harder against uncertainty, but from learning to work with it strategically.
What are you willing to let burn to save what matters most?
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“The single most important message in this book is very simple,” reads the first line in John Kotter’s highly regarded The Heart of Change. “People change what they do less because they are given analysis that shifts their thinking than because they are shown a truth that influences their feelings.
Really? That’s the important message? That emotive arguments are more powerful than factual arguments? What about other reasons why people change their behavior, such as social proof, conformity, incentives or coercion? By setting up a binary and artificial choice between two communication alternatives, he eliminates important strategic and tactical options.
It’s not just Kotter either, who is a well respected professor at Harvard Business School. The truth is that a lot of management thinking is surprisingly shoddy, with arbitrary notions and cognitive biases dressed up as scholarly work. We need to be more skeptical about “research” that comes out of business schools and consultancies. Here are three things to look for:
1. WYSIATI And Confirmation Bias
Kotter’s point about emotive vs. analytic arguments is, of course, completely valid. The fundamental error he makes is that he focuses on that particular aspect to the exclusion of everything else. Daniel Kahneman calls this WYSIATI, or “what you see is all there is.” Once you get tunnel vision on a particular fact or idea, it’s hard to see anything else.
Consider this thought experiment: You go to a conference featuring a powerful, emotive presentation on the need to combat climate change. You see glaciers melting, polar bears losing their habitat and young children starving from drought. Then you go back to the office, fired up and ready to do something about it, but everyone else has a strong argument against acting on climate change.
What is likely to happen next? You convince you co-workers—including your bosses— about the urgency of the crisis? Or, surrounded by skeptics, your conviction begins to wane? When all we see is the poor polar bears and starving in an echo chamber of likeminded people, we forget about other considerations, but that doesn’t mean that’s all there is.
An issue related to WYSIATI is confirmation bias. Kotter proudly points out that he worked with Deloitte to conduct extensive research for his book. Amazingly, after analyzing over 200 interviews, he ended up with the same 8-step process he cited in his earlier work. So what was the purpose of the research, to gain actual insights or to confirm what he thought he already knew?
Perhaps not surprisingly, after decades of organizations applying Kotter’s ideas about change McKinsey still finds that more than two-thirds of transformational efforts fail. Maybe there is actually more to change than communication strategy.
2. Halo Effects And Confounding Variables
One of the most popular modes of analysis that business thinkers use is to examine successful companies and see what they do differently. A number of bestselling management books, such as In Search of Excellence, have used this method. Unfortunately, when doing so they often fall prey to a cognitive bias known as the halo effect.
For example, in 2000, before the dotcom crash, Cisco was flying high. A profile in Fortune reported it to have an unparalleled culture with highly motivated employees. But just one year later, when the market tanked, the very same publication described it as “cocksure” and “naive.” Did the “culture,” under the very same leadership, really change that much in a year? Or did the perceptions of its performance change?
Cisco had a highly motivated and, some would say, aggressive sales force. When the company was doing well, analysts assumed it was their aggressiveness that produced good results and when its fortunes changed, that same aggressive behavior was blamed for its failures. This is what’s known as a confounding error, the fact that an aggressive sales force correlated with specific results doesn’t mean that the aggressive sales force caused the results.
Every organization has things which it does differently, that are idiosyncratic to its management and culture. In some market contexts those traits will be advantageous, in other environments they may not be. It takes work—and some humility—to separate what’s truly a success factor, what’s merely fit for a narrow purpose and what’s not really relevant.
3. Survivorship Bias
Business school professors and consultants gain fame—not to mention large fees—when they are able to define a novel concept or success factor. If you are able to isolate one thing that organizations should do differently, you have a powerful product to sell. A single powerful insight can make an entire career, which is probably why so many cut corners.
For example, in their study of 108 companies, distinguished INSEAD professors W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne found that “blue ocean” products, those in new categories without competition, far outperform those in the more competitive “red ocean” markets. Their book, Blue Ocean Strategy, was an immediate hit, selling over 3.5 million copies.
Bain consultants Chris Zook and James Allen’ book, Profit from the Core, boasted even more extensive research encompassing 200 case studies, a database of 1,854 companies, 100 interviews of senior executives and an “extensive review” of existing literature. They found that firms that focused on their ”core” far outperformed those who strayed.
It doesn’t take too much thinking to start seeing problems. How can you both “focus on your core” and seek out “blue oceans”? It betrays logic that both strategies could outperform one another. Also, how do you define “core?” Core markets? Core capabilities? Core customers? While it’s true that “blue ocean” markets lack competitors, they don’t have any customers either. Who do you sell to?
Yet there is an even bigger, more insidious problem called survivorship bias. Notice how “research” doesn’t include firms that went out of business because there were no customers in those “blue oceans” or because they failed to diversify outside of their “core.” The data only pertains to those that survived.
It’s hard to think of any other field where researchers could get away with such obviously careless work. Can you imagine medical research that didn’t include patients that died, or airplane research that didn’t include the flights that crashed? Suffice it to say that since the two books were published two decades ago, they’ve shown no capacity to predict whether a business will succeed or fail.
Don’t Believe Everything You Think
When I’m finishing up a book, I send out sections to be fact-checked by experts and those who have first-person knowledge of events. I’m always amazed at how much I get wrong. In some cases, I make truly egregious errors about facts I should have known (or did know, but failed to take into account). It can be an incredibly humbling process.
That’s why it’s so important to not to believe everything you think, there are simply too many ways to get things wrong. As Richard Feynman put it, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” I would also add a second principle that just because you’ve managed to fool others, doesn’t mean you’ve gotten it right.
Unfortunately, so many of the popular management ideas today come from people who never actually operated a business, such as business school professors and consultants. These are often people who’ve never failed. They’ve been told that they’re smart all their lives and expect others to be impressed by their ideas, not to examine them thoroughly.
The problem with so much business thinking today is that there is an appalling lack of rigor. That’s the only way that obviously flawed ideas such as “blue oceans,” “profiting from the core” and John Kotter’s ideas about change management are able to gain traction. It’s hard to imagine any other field with such a complete lack of quality control.
That’s why I send out fact checks, because I know how likely I am to think foolish and inaccurate things. I’ve also noticed that I tend to be most wrong when I think I’ve come up with something brilliant. Much as Tolstoy wrote about families, there are infinitely more ways to get things wrong than to get things right.
— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
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Here at Human-Centered Change & Innovation our focus is always on the intersection of human needs, innovative solutions, and the transformative power of change. In a world clamoring for sustainable answers to pressing problems, it’s easy to get lost in the hype cycles of AI and quantum computing. But sometimes, the most revolutionary advancements are quietly simmering beneath the surface, waiting for their moment to redefine our future. Today, I want to pull back the curtain on one such unsung hero: Elastocalorics.
This isn’t just another scientific curiosity; it’s a profound shift in how we might manage temperature, offering a genuinely human-centered approach to a challenge that impacts every facet of our lives – from the comfort of our homes to the efficiency of our industries.
The Unseen Revolution: Why Elastocalorics Matters
Let’s cut through the jargon. At its core, elastocalorics harnesses the fascinating property of certain materials (often shape-memory alloys like nickel-titanium) to absorb or release heat when subjected to mechanical stress. Stretch them, and they warm up. Release the tension, and they cool down. Think of it as a solid-state heat pump, a silent, elegant dance between material science and thermodynamics.
Why is this a game-changer? Because the status quo of cooling and heating is fundamentally unsustainable. Traditional vapor-compression systems, while effective, are energy hogs. They rely on refrigerants with high global warming potentials, contribute significantly to our carbon footprint, and are far from the ideal solution for a planet grappling with climate change.
Elastocalorics offers an alternative that is:
Energy-Efficient: By directly converting mechanical energy into thermal energy, these systems promise significant energy savings, drastically reducing the power required for cooling and heating.
Environmentally Friendly: No harmful refrigerants means zero ozone depletion potential and vastly reduced global warming potential. This is a truly green technology.
Compact and Quiet: Without the need for bulky compressors and fans, elastocaloric systems can be significantly smaller and operate with minimal noise, opening up new design possibilities for appliances and buildings.
Durable and Reliable: Solid-state systems typically have fewer moving parts, leading to increased longevity and reduced maintenance needs.
This isn’t just about saving a few bucks on your utility bill; it’s about fundamentally rethinking our relationship with temperature control in a way that aligns with our collective human responsibility to the planet.
Case Study 1: Reinventing Refrigeration – The Quest for a Greener Kitchen
Imagine a refrigerator that hums along silently, using a fraction of the energy of its conventional counterpart, and with no harmful chemicals circulating within its coils. This is the vision that elastocaloric technology is bringing to life in the appliance sector.
For decades, refrigerator design has been constrained by the limitations of vapor-compression cycles. Engineers and designers have been forced to work around bulky compressors, noisy fans, and the specific requirements of refrigerants. With elastocalorics, the paradigm shifts.
One pioneering effort, though still in research and development phases, involves startups exploring elastocaloric refrigeration units for commercial and residential applications. These companies are developing prototypes that utilize a series of stretching and relaxing bands of elastocaloric material, perhaps arranged in a carousel or linear array. As the material stretches, it releases heat to the ambient environment; as it relaxes, it cools down, absorbing heat from the refrigerator’s interior. This cyclical process efficiently moves heat out of the insulated compartment, maintaining a consistent low temperature.
The human-centered innovation here is profound. Beyond the obvious environmental benefits, elastocaloric refrigerators could lead to entirely new kitchen layouts. Imagine integrated cooling drawers that disappear into cabinetry, or silent, compact mini-fridges that fit seamlessly into any office or bedroom. The absence of noisy compressors enhances domestic tranquility, and the peace of mind knowing your appliance isn’t contributing to climate change is an intangible, yet powerful, benefit. This isn’t just a new fridge; it’s a new living experience.
Case Study 2: Precision Cooling for Tomorrow’s Data Centers – A Silent Revolution in Silicon Valleys
Data centers are the beating heart of our digital world, consuming staggering amounts of energy, with a significant portion dedicated to cooling the thousands of servers that power the internet. The heat generated by these machines is immense, and traditional cooling methods are expensive, inefficient, and often involve large-scale water consumption.
This is where elastocalorics enters as a potential game-changer. Consider research initiatives funded by major tech companies and government grants aimed at deploying elastocaloric cooling solutions directly within server racks. The idea is to move beyond room-level air conditioning and bring the cooling mechanism closer to the heat source itself.
Imagine elastocaloric cooling chips or modules directly integrated into server motherboards or mounted within individual server units. These tiny, silent heat pumps could efficiently draw heat away from processors and memory modules, transferring it to an external heat sink or a liquid cooling loop. This “point-of-source” cooling approach drastically reduces the energy wasted moving cool air across an entire data hall.
The human-centered aspect here might seem less obvious, but it’s critical. Efficient data centers mean less energy consumption, reducing the overall carbon footprint of our digital lives. For the engineers and operators, it means potentially smaller, quieter, and more reliable cooling infrastructure, reducing operational costs and freeing up valuable floor space. For society, it means a more sustainable digital future, allowing us to continue innovating and connecting without exacerbating our environmental challenges. It’s about enabling the human endeavor of connectivity and information exchange in an environmentally responsible way.
The Architects of a Cooler Future: Elastocaloric Market Leaders and Startups
The field of elastocaloric cooling, recognized by the World Economic Forum as a top emerging technology, is still largely in its research and development phase, but a number of key players are beginning to define the market. Established companies like Carrier and Daikin are actively exploring elastocaloric systems as a sustainable alternative to traditional HVAC, leveraging their existing expertise in heat pump technology. Additionally, materials science and industrial giants such as Ferrotec Holdings Corporation and Coherent Corp. are leading the way in developing the specialized alloys, like Nitinol (nickel-titanium), that are at the heart of this technology. On the startup and academic front, there’s a hive of innovation. A German consortium led by the Saarland University and the Center for Mechatronics and Automation Technology (ZeMA), with partners like Irish company Exergyn, is pioneering prototypes for residential and automotive cooling. Meanwhile, researchers at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) have made a significant breakthrough with the world’s first kilowatt-scale elastocaloric cooling device, pushing the technology closer to commercial viability. These innovators, both large and small, are laying the groundwork for a future free from environmentally harmful refrigerants.
The Road Ahead: From Lab to Living Room
Elastocalorics, while incredibly promising, is still in its nascent stages. There are challenges to overcome: optimizing material fatigue life, scaling up production, and integrating these systems seamlessly into existing infrastructures. However, the pace of innovation is accelerating. Researchers are constantly discovering new materials with even better elastocaloric properties, and engineers are devising ingenious ways to harness these effects efficiently.
As a thought leader in human-centered change and innovation, I see elastocalorics not just as a technology, but as a paradigm shift. It challenges us to rethink fundamental aspects of our built environment and industrial processes. It invites us to imagine a future where temperature control is not an environmental burden but an elegant, efficient, and almost invisible part of our lives.
The beauty of elastocalorics lies in its elegant simplicity and profound potential. It’s a testament to the fact that true innovation often lies in rediscovering and re-engineering the basic principles of physics in new, more sustainable ways. Keep an eye on this space; the silent revolution of elastocalorics is coming, and it has the power to cool our world in more ways than one.
Disclaimer: This article speculates on the potential future applications of cutting-edge scientific research. While based on current scientific understanding, the practical realization of these concepts may vary in timeline and feasibility and are subject to ongoing research and development.
Image credit: Gemini
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You’ve done everything to set Strategic Foresight efforts up for success. Executive authority? Check. Challenging inputs? Check. Process integration? Check. Now you just need to flip the switch and you’re off to the races.
Not so fast.
While the wrong set-up is guaranteed to cause failure, the right set-up doesn’t guarantee success. Research shows that strategic foresight initiatives with the right set-up fail because of “organizational pathologies” that sabotage even well-designed efforts.
If you aren’t leading the right people to do the right things in the right way, you’re not going to get the impact you need.
Here’s what to watch out for (and what to do when it happens).
Your Teams Misunderstand Foresight’s Purpose
People naturally assume that strategic foresight predicts the future. When it doesn’t, they abandon it faster than last year’s digital transformation initiative.
Shell learned this the hard way. In 1965, they built the Unified Planning Machinery, a computerized forecasting tool designed to predict cash flow based on trends. It was abandoned because executives feared “it would suppress discussion rather than encourage debate on differing perspectives.”
When they shifted from prediction to preparation, specifically to “modify the mental model of decision-makers faced with an uncertain future,” strategic foresight became an invaluable decision-making tool.
Help your team approach strategic foresight as preparation, not prediction, by measuring success by the improvement in discussion and decision-making, not scenario accuracy. When teams build mental flexibility rather than make predictions, wrong scenarios stop being failed scenarios.
People are Paralyzed by Fear of Being Wrong
Even when your teams understand foresight’s purpose, managers are often unwilling “to use foresight to plan beyond a few quarters, fearing that any decisions today could be wrong tomorrow.”
This is profoundly human. As Webb wrote, “When faced with uncertainty, we become inflexible. We revert to historical patterns, we stick to a predetermined plan, or we simply refuse to adopt a new mental model.” We nod along in scenario sessions, then make decisions exactly like we always have.
Shell’s scenario planning efforts succeeded because it made being wrong acceptable. Even though executives initially scoffed at the idea of oil prices quadrupling, they prepared for the scenario and took near-term “no regrets” decisions to restructure their portfolio.
To help people get past their fear, reward them for making foresight-informed decisions. For example, establish incentives and promotion criteria where exploring “wrong” scenarios leads to career advancement.
Your Culture Confuses Activity with Achievement
Between insight and action, the Tyranny of Now reigns. In even the most committed organizations, the very real and immediate needs of the business call us away from our planning efforts and consume our time and energy, meaning strategic foresight is embraced only when it doesn’t interfere with their “real” jobs.
Disney’s approach made strategic foresight a required element of people’s “real jobs” by integrating foresight activities and insights directly into performance management and strategic planning. When foresight teams identified that traditional media consumption was fracturing in 2012, Disney began preparing for that future by actively exploring and investing in new potential solutions.
Resist the Tyranny of Now’s pull by making strategic foresight activities just as tyrannical – require decisions based on foresight insights to occur in 90 days or less. These decisions should trigger resource allocation reviews, even if the resources are relatively small (e.g., one or a few people, tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars). If strategic foresight doesn’t force hard choices about investments and priorities, it’s activity without achievement.
How You Lead and What People Do Determine Strategic Foresight’s Success
Executive authority, challenging inputs, and process integration are necessary but not sufficient. Success requires conquering the deeper organizational and human behaviors that determine whether strategic foresight is a corporate ritual or a competitive advantage.
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The surprising power of reframing as an innovation tool
GUEST POST from John Bessant
Neuroplasticity. Not some weird creation of a mad 3D sculptor intent on creating a strange new species with which to threaten the world in another zombie apocalypse story but instead a wonderful feature of our brains. Research increasingly confirms our ability, in the face of unexpected shock or challenge, to rewire ourselves, make new neural connections. Defined as‘the ability of neural networks in the brain to change through growth and reorganization’ it’s visible in the ways in which people can recover speech or movement after traumatic brain injury and it’s now understood to be critical in the process of early cognitive development in babies. It’s even offered as one explanation for the impossible and unpredictable lifestyls of teenagers; their penchant for lying in bed all day and mooching aorund may be down to their working hard at the synaptic level to reconstruct their brains!
It’s also a good description of a key capability which entrepreneurs have. Being able to reframe, seeing the world in a new way opens up significant new possibilities. Provided, of course, that you are then able to follow through, solving problems and enabling the new connections necessary to bring about that state.
Think about Malcolm Maclean, sitting on the dock of the bay one afternoon and imagining an alternative approach to shipping. Instead of the laborious loading and unloading with all its costs, its wasted time, the security challenges and so on – why not use containers? The vision involved a stretch of the imagination; the actual realisation of it considerably more but in the end you have a game changer. Reframing and then realising the possibilities.
It’s an old story; the challenge of transportation and logistics was one which engaged James Brindley 200 years earlier as the Industrial Revolution began to reshape the British economy and the landscape in which it took place. You can’t get a manufacturing-led transformation off the ground unless you can move tings around – raw materials in and finsihed products out of your factories. Which, given the worn-out and primitive state of many of the roads and tracks criss-crossing the country at the time was a big problem. Brindley was one of the pioneers of the idea of creating waterways – canals – as an alternative, providing fast and straight connections between factories, cities and ports.
Image: Watercolour of Barton aqueduct by G.F. Yates 1793, public domain
Just like Malcolm Maclean, this was an inspirational idea which required a deal of systems thinking. Not just one which could imagine an alternative world built on waterways but also one which would need a lot of practical problem solving to bring it into being. Dealing with multiple questions around how to enable the different elements of the system to come together and deliver ‘emergent properties’ where the whole has an impact much greater than the sum of its parts.
His efforts extended well beyond the map making and route planning through to the detailed construction, involving tunnels, cuttings and viaducts. He also had to think through the big challenge of hydraulics, how to fill the canals with water and keep them full – which meant, amongst other things, solving the problem of lining the canal with a water- saving clay. He also reduced the water demand by cutting narrower canals and then designing narrow-boats to navigate them. And since the country is not level means that in places vessels using the canal have to climb up or down slopes which necessitated development of intricately engineered locks and sluices.
Brindley’s work on connecting up the dots of his system into something which changed the transportation world of its time even extended to thinking in the same direction as Malcolm Mclean came to do much later. Faced with the problem of loading and unloading coal as a key bulk item Brindley devised a system involving specially built wooden containers which could be prefilled and transhipped quickly from specially-designed boats!
Above all Brindley was a systems thinker, seeing connections and working on how to best join up the dots to deliver major change. Which his legacy over 350 miles of canals criss-crossing the country and powering the Industrial Revolution seems to have done.
There’s still plenty of scope for such system rethinking today – giving opportunities even in the face of crisis. Take the example of Gridless, founded in 2022 and already a successful and growing business in the energy sector of Africa.
First the vision. Africa is the coming continent, with a huge population of around a billion largely young people and rapidly accelerating development. This creates an engine for growth through both domestic demand and – with sufficient investment – the possibility of increasing exports, not just of raw materials but of finished goods and services.
It has enormous potential – and it has a track record as a place where radical innovations can emerge and scale. Take the example of M-PESA. Where the idea of mobile money still seems fresh and exciting for citizens of the industrialised world learning to use cashless payments by phone it’s actually rather old hat to many people in East Africa. M-PESA (the word means mobile money in Swahili) is coming up towards celebrating its 20th birthday and has moved a long way from being an experiment to try and improve access to basic financial services for the largely unbanked population of Kenya. Now the M-PESA network carries 60% of GDP and delivers a growing range of services across the economy.
But Africa is also unevenly developed; not least in the case of energy. Whilst much of the population is now connected this is not the case everywhere. Over two thirds of the population – 600 million people – have no access to electricity. Mini-grids (relatively small local power stations and networks) can help solve this energy access problem, not least by tapping into the huge potential which renewable energy – solar, wind, hydro and biomass – has for the region.
There’s no shortage of technology to help construct mini and even micro-grids, and there are plenty of power sources which could potentially be tapped. The problem is economic; in order to finance the construction of such a micro-grid a lot of capital is needed up front. That needs a reasonable return to cover operating costs and recoup the investment costs – but in the short term the market to pay for this isn’t there.
When the power starts to flow there is relatively little demand to hook it up to; people who’ve survived without electricity don’t suddenly become active consumers. As Eric Hersman, one of the founders of Gridless points out, ‘ … if you’re a smallholder farmer in a rural village in Africa you’ll likely buy an LED light bulb and charge your phone at first. These don’t draw a lot of electricity, but they do change your life considerably. It might be a few years before you invest in that refrigerator, TV, irrigation pump, or electric oven’.
The consequence of this slow demand growth is that the provider ends up throwing away 80% of its energy and having to charge too high a price for the rest. What could be an important way of helping local communities develop runs aground because that high price effectively throttles the emerging demand at birth. Catch-22.
Gridless represents an entrepreneurial way of reframing this problem. Given such a stalemate their business model asks a simple question. What if there were a consumer who would guarantee to buy electricity at the necessary market rate to support the project and then gradually retreat as the prices fell and the connections rose? A stepping stone approach, essentially a temporary scaffolding to enable an infrastructure to emerge and grow. Using a horticultural metaphor it’s like putting in place a trellis to support an early sapling until the plant is able to survive and thrive on its own.
That’s the vision part of the Gridless approach – to help Africa with micro-grid development. Their website describes it simply: ‘By combining small-scale bitcoin data centres and renewables-based mini-grids they aim to develop the foundation of a new model to expand profitable electrification to communities in emerging markets without the need for charity, aid, gifts, or government subsidy…’
Bitcoin mining – the energy intensive operation of multiple computers beavering away at solving complex mathematical puzzles to earn rewards in the form of bitcoins – does not have the best of reputations in terms of sustainability. By its nature it involves consuming huge amounts of energy whose generation often contributes to pollution and global warming. But Gridless have reworked the story so that it makes a positive contribution to both sustainability of operations and community development.
It does so in a simple a practical way. It hooks up a bitcoin mine with a source of sustainable energy provided by local renewables like hydro or solar. And it deals with the ‘stranded energy’ problem by joining in the system as a ‘buyer of last resort’. Their bitcoin mining operations provide plenty of demand for energy and those operations are profitable enough to buy it at prices which are too high for local communities to pay in the short term. But as the market develops so the local demand increases – and this means the provider can reduce prices, recouping their costs over a larger market. They can also invest to extend the grid and bring yet more demand into the system.
Eventually things reach a point where there isn’t enough power left for the bitcoin mining, so Gridless pack up their operations, move on to another site where there is ‘stranded energy;’ and start the whole cycle once again. It’s a business model for development with some important social values underpinning it. The main purpose is to help connect people through micro-grids and to gradually exit as the role of the buyer of first resort becomes unnecessary. It’s a business fuelled by bitcoin profits but these are effectively being reinvested in social development – a powerful alternative vision. By providing a consistent and reliable demand for electricity, Bitcoin mining helps to utilize excess renewable energy that might otherwise go to waste, thereby unlocking the potential of stranded renewable energy projects and contributing to a more sustainable energy future.
An impressive vision – but as Messrs Maclean and Brindley will tell you, the challenge is not in creating the vision, it’s in realising it. Visions like these need a lot of different dots to be joined up, a lot of problem solving to make it all work. The Gridless solution starts with the idea of being ‘geographically agnostic’ – meaning it is mobile and can be moved anywhere, finding and helping develop micro-grids wherever there is ‘stranded energy’ opportunity.
They do this by putting the bitcoin mine in a box – literally, using a shipping container in a way which would make Malcolm Maclean proud. They move it close to sources of renewable power – like a micro-hydro system in Zambia, harvesting the abundant energy from the fast flowing Zambesi river.
They’ve worked hard on adapting their technology – computers, power supplies, software – to operate in what can still be challenging conditions. Rural Africa is a long way from the clinical clean environments of Silicon Valley and they’ve had to learn to deal with the suite of problems this throws up in order to make their system reliable. For example air quality- the dust which the wind blows up as it sweeps across the wide plains means you have to be very careful to fit suitable filters to avoid all the expensive electronics grinding to a halt. Ditto the heat; average temperatures in Kenya hover around 30 degrees Celsius so there’s a big problem in keeping things cool. And then there are the bugs.
In 2022 when they set up their first facility the lights attracted plenty of curious insects and, especially in the rainy season, they flew towards them en masse, only to crash into the ventilation fans and eventually jam them!
Problems weren’t just physical; the economics of buying containers ready made from China or the USA to use as mobile bitcoin mines posed a big challenge. Quite apart from the logistics and transportation costs of getting them to Africa there were bureaucratic costs involved in getting the various permissions needed to import such equipment. And then there were the capital costs – at over $100,000 per container it was too expensive. So the team went back to the drawing board and designed their own container which cost 75% less. It’s also had the side benefit of bypassing many of the import regulations (since it is now a domestically manufactured product)
Their problem-solving also extends to another big issue with their business model – that of micro-grid management. How to balance supply and demand and make sure that the needs of the community are served first? Gridless wanted to make sure that they weren’t using electricity which somebody else needed. They did this by writing their own software – Gridless OS – which allows for real-time response to demand, making sure people get what they need when they need it whilst also stabilising the grid.
After three years of such problem-solving the team have a robust model which they have demonstrated can work in a variety of contexts, using whatever renewable power supply is available – solar, hydro or biomass. Theirs is primarily a social mission and so they’ve codified their experience and can offer a blueprint for the same kind of model to be used by others to help African development.
And it works. Not only by connecting people to electric power but by extending the range of possibilities which that then opens up. Once you have power you can have light – which offers more than just illumination, it allows children to study at night and boosts education. Local services become possible because power enables small-scale facilities to operate and deliver healthcare. Business can connect better to markets and small-scale farms and factories can improve their operations and profitability, generating employment.
In an interview with Bitcoin Magazine one of the Gridless founders, Janet Maingi, elaborated on this novel approach which now operates in several countries including Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, ‘…for example, there’s a tea factory in Muranga, Kenya, which is in the highlands. We partnered with the energy generator in the area and they were able to give the factory power. Now, their facilities are able to support the tea factory, which has two benefits: tea farmers can bring their tea to the factory, which means it doesn’t spoil on the farms because they can’t get it to point B in time and more employment has also been created just by that tea factory becoming an electrified space….’
The potential is huge. As Eric Hersman, points out‘….just 10% – 40GW of the 400GW of hydroelectric energy in Africa – has been developed (and that’s just hydro!). There is a near unlimited supply of energy to be developed in the one place on earth that needs it most… Africa. But how to get the plants built? Despite being home to 17% of the world’s population, Africa currently accounts for just 4% of global power supply investment’.
As he points out mini-grid business models have traditionally focused on having an ‘anchor client’, a single large electricity consumer such as a telecom tower, which consumes the majority of electricity supplied by the mini-grid. The anchor client is the first step in what’s called an ABC strategy (Anchor—Business—Consumers) for mini-grid financial sustainability. The model builds on finding an anchor client with a predictable load profile and then helping develop around that a group of local businesses that can provide stable demand and promote economic growth in the communities. The last step is residential customers, bringing them in gradually by improving access and generating income from them.
Over the last 3 years Gridless has shown that mini-grids can be made profitable using their model of becoming a ‘geographically agnostic anchor tenant’. They’ve done this on 6 sites in 3 African countries, using the stranded (wasted) energy from hydro, biomass, geothermal, some of that augmented by solar. Their numbers prove that it can be done; they are confident that a 5-7 year return on investment is possible on almost any hydro mini grid.
There’s a lot to be done – figures from the World Bank estimate that Africa needs 140,000 mini-grids to help electrify the continent. But as of 2025 only 5000 have been built – around 5% of what’s required. Which opens up a huge opportunity – if we can reframe the problem.
The key thing about neuroplasticity is that it isn’t an instant process of constructing new neural pathways. Instead the connections have to be made and reinforced; only gradually does the new network become fully operational. Patients who manage to recover movement or speech after a catastrophic neural event like a stroke do so by a mixture of hard work and determination. Gradually creating those new pathways.
Fixing problems like Africa’s energy challenge won’t happen overnight. It’s not going to be simple, and it will need a lot of system-level problem-solving, joining the dots. But just like James Brindley imagining a network of canals or Malcolm Maclean picturing container routes spanning the world, it starts with an entrepreneurial vision.
You stand on the brink of an exciting new adventure. Turmoil and uncertainty have convinced you that future success requires more than the short-term strategic and business planning tools you’ve used. You’ve cut through the hype surrounding Strategic Foresight and studied success. You are ready to lead your company into its bold future.
So, where do you start?
Most executives get caught up in all the things that need to happen and are distracted by all the tools, jargon, and pretty pictures that get thrown at them. But you are smarter than that. You know that there are three things you must do at the beginning to ensure ultimate success.
Give Foresight Executive Authority and Access
Foresight without responsibility is intellectual daydreaming.
While the practice of research and scenario design can be delegated to planning offices, the responsibility for debating, deciding, and using Strategic Foresight must rest with P&L owners.
Amy Webb’s research at NYU shows that when a C-Suite executive with the authority to force strategic reviews oversaw foresight activities, the results were more likely to be acted on and integrated into strategic and operational plans. Shell serves as a specific example of this, as its foresight team reported directly to the executive committee, so that when scenarios explored dramatic oil price volatility, Shell executives personally reviewed strategic portfolios and authorized immediate capability building.
Start by asking:
Who can force strategic reviews outside of the traditional planning process?
What triggers a review of Strategic Foresight scenarios?
How do we hold people accountable for acting on insights?
Demand Inputs That Challenge Your Assumptions
If your Strategic Foresight conversations don’t make you uncomfortable, you’re doing them wrong.
Webb’s research also shows that successful foresight systematically explores fundamental changes that could render the existing business obsolete.
Shell’s scenarios went beyond assumptions about oil price stability to explore supply disruptions, geopolitical shifts, and demand transformation. Disney’s foresight set aside traditional assumptions about media consumption and explored how technology could completely reshape content creation, distribution, and consumption.
Start by asking these questions:
Is the team going beyond trend analysis and exploring technology, regulations, social changes, and economic developments that could restructure entire markets?
Who are we talking to in other industries? What unusual, unexpected, and maybe crazy sources are we using to inform our scenarios?
Does at least one scenario feel possible and terrifying?
Integrate Foresight into Existing Planning Processes
Strategic Foresight that doesn’t connect to resource allocation decisions is expensive research.
Your planning processes must connect Strategic Foresight’s long-term scenarios to Strategic Planning’s 3–5-year plans and to your annual budget and resource decisions. No separate foresight exercises. No parallel planning tracks. The cascade from 20-year scenarios to this year’s investments must be explicit and ruthless.
When Shell’s scenarios explored dramatic oil price volatility over decades, Shell didn’t file them away and wait for them to come true. They immediately reviewed their strategic portfolio and developed a 3–5-year plan to build capabilities for multiple oil futures. This was then translated into immediate capital allocation changes.
Disney’s foresight about changing media consumption in the next 20 years informed strategic planning for Disney+ and, ultimately, its operational launch.
Start by asking these questions:
How is Strategic Foresight linked to our strategic and business planning processes?
How do scenarios flow from 20-year insights through 5-year strategy to this year’s budget decisions?
How is the integration of Strategic Foresight into annual business planning measured and rewarded?
Three Steps. One Outcome.
Strategic foresight efforts succeed when they have the executive authority, provocative inputs, and integrated processes to drive resource allocation decisions. Taking these three steps at the very start sets you, your team, and your organization up for success. But they’re still not a guarantee.
Ready to avoid the predictable pitfalls? Next week, we’ll consider why strategic foresight fails and how to prevent your efforts from joining them.
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Integrating an XMO with Customer, Employee and Partner Advisory Boards
by Braden Kelley and Art Inteligencia
In today’s fiercely competitive landscape, merely meeting expectations isn’t enough; delivering exceptional experiences is the non-negotiable standard. Customers demand seamless, intuitive journeys. Employees seek engaging, meaningful work that fosters growth. Partners require transparent, collaborative relationships that drive mutual success. As a human-centered change and innovation thought leader, I advocate for a truly holistic approach: the Experience Management Office (XMO). However, an XMO, while powerful in its own right, truly achieves its potential when it’s synergistically integrated with the invaluable, unfiltered insights derived from Customer, Partner, and Employee Advisory Boards. This integration forms a dynamic “experience nexus” of feedback and action, ensuring that experience strategies are not just internally conceived, but genuinely co-created and reflective of the voices that matter most.
The Strategic Imperative of the Experience Management Office (XMO)
Historically, organizations managed customer experience (CX), employee experience (EX), and often partner experience (PX) in isolated silos. This fragmented approach frequently led to inconsistent experiences and missed opportunities for cross-functional improvements. The XMO emerges as the strategic orchestrator, unifying these disparate efforts under a single, cohesive umbrella. Its core mandate is to ensure consistency, proactively identify and eliminate friction points, and drive continuous improvement across all critical touchpoints for every stakeholder. An effective XMO establishes robust methodologies, deploys standardized tools, provides clear governance, and acts as a central repository for all experience data, translating raw insights into prioritized, actionable initiatives.
“An XMO, while powerful in its own right, truly achieves its potential when it’s synergistically integrated with the invaluable, unfiltered insights derived from Customer, Partner, and Employee Advisory Boards.”
Amplifying Voices: The Power of Advisory Boards
While the XMO provides the essential strategic framework and operational discipline, advisory boards inject the authentic, ground-level voice of your critical stakeholders. They offer invaluable qualitative feedback that complements quantitative data.
Customer Advisory Boards (CABs): Comprising your most engaged and influential customers, CABs provide unfiltered feedback on product utility, service delivery, and overall brand perception. They offer a direct window into evolving customer needs, emerging pain points, and often highlight competitive shifts or significant unmet market opportunities. Their strategic input can be a game-changer for product roadmaps and service enhancements.
Partner Advisory Boards (PABs): For organizations deeply reliant on a robust ecosystem of distributors, resellers, integrators, or technology alliances, PABs are indispensable. They offer critical insights into channel effectiveness, the viability of joint go-to-market strategies, and operational friction points that directly impact mutual profitability and success. A strong PAB can foster greater collaboration and loyalty.
Employee Advisory Boards (EABs): Your employees are the living embodiment of your organization’s culture and processes. They are on the front lines, experiencing internal systems and customer interactions firsthand. EABs provide invaluable, real-time feedback on workplace culture, operational inefficiencies, the effectiveness of internal tools, and the direct impact of leadership decisions on morale, productivity, and retention. They serve as both early warning systems and fertile ground for grassroots innovation within the Employee Experience (EX).
The Experience Nexus: From Feedback to Breakthrough Innovation
The true magic of this holistic model is realized when the XMO functions as the intelligent central hub, systematically receiving, synthesizing, and acting upon the rich insights generated by these diverse advisory boards (the strategic spokes). This creates a dynamic, continuous improvement loop, and crucially, an engine for genuine innovation. The XMO’s role goes beyond just operational excellence; it becomes a powerful catalyst for change. By gathering and cross-referencing insights from all three boards, the XMO can identify truly breakthrough opportunities that a siloed approach would miss. It’s in the intersection of these diverse perspectives that the most profound insights for innovation emerge.
Structured Feedback Ecosystem: The XMO establishes formalized, yet flexible, processes for advisory boards to submit feedback. This ensures insights are consistently captured, meticulously categorized, intelligently prioritized, and seamlessly routed to the most relevant internal product, service, or operational teams.
Holistic Data Synthesis & Analysis: The XMO’s analytical capabilities are crucial here. It collates and cross-references qualitative insights from the advisory boards with quantitative experience data (e.g., NPS, CSAT, CES, employee engagement scores, churn rates, partner revenue contribution). This holistic analysis identifies systemic trends, uncovers root causes, and validates hypotheses across the entire experience landscape.
Actionable Insights & Strategic Prioritization: Armed with synthesized, validated data, the XMO plays a pivotal role in guiding leadership to prioritize experience initiatives. It ensures resources and effort are strategically allocated to areas that will deliver the most significant, cross-cutting impact across customer, employee, and partner journeys, driving maximum business value.
Innovation Acceleration: This is where the nexus truly shines. The XMO facilitates cross-functional “insight sharing” workshops, where product, engineering, and design teams are exposed directly to the synthesized feedback. For example, a common pain point from a Customer Advisory Board might be the lack of a specific feature, while an Employee Advisory Board highlights a related internal operational inefficiency, and a Partner Advisory Board reveals a similar competitive gap. When these three insights are combined, they don’t just solve a single problem; they can reveal a massive market opportunity for a new product, service, or business model. The XMO’s role is to identify and champion these “aha!” moments, channeling them directly into the innovation pipeline.
Transparent Closed-Loop Communication: Perhaps most critically, the XMO champions and facilitates regular, transparent communication back to the advisory boards. This demonstrates precisely how their invaluable feedback is being utilized, outlining the tangible progress of implemented initiatives, and celebrating the impact of their contributions. This transparency is vital; it builds deep trust, reinforces the perceived value of their participation, and encourages continued engagement.
Case Study 1: Global SaaS Provider – Unifying the Ecosystem Experience
From Fragmented Insights to Integrated Ecosystem Enhancement
A global B2B SaaS company faced challenges with inconsistent product adoption and suboptimal channel partner engagement. Their existing structure meant customer feedback was managed by the CX team, HR handled employee surveys, and the partner team conducted informal check-ins. This siloed approach led to fragmented insights and disjointed solutions, impacting their overall ecosystem health.
Recognizing the need for a unified strategy, they established a dedicated Experience Management Office (XMO) reporting directly to the Chief Operating Officer. The XMO’s clear mandate was to integrate and elevate all experience initiatives. Concurrently, they formalized their existing Customer Advisory Board (CAB) and launched a new, strategically focused Partner Advisory Board (PAB). The XMO developed a comprehensive quarterly insights report, meticulously combining feedback from the CABs, PABs, and internal employee surveys. A consistent, critical theme emerged from this integrated analysis: the onboarding experience for new customers and channel partners was clunky, inconsistent, and often frustrating across different product lines.
Leveraging this precise feedback, the XMO facilitated cross-functional workshops involving product development, sales, marketing, and customer support teams. This collaborative effort led to the rapid development and deployment of a unified onboarding platform and standardized, role-based training modules. The XMO rigorously tracked key metrics such as “time-to-first-value” for new customers and partner activation rates. Within 18 months, customer satisfaction scores related to onboarding surged by 25%, and partner-led sales increased by a remarkable 15%, demonstrating the profound, tangible benefits of integrating diverse external and internal voices through a centralized, action-oriented XMO.
Key Takeaway: A centralized XMO, fed by structured CAB and PAB insights, can drive enterprise-wide improvements in critical customer and partner journeys, leading to measurable business growth.
Addressing Inherent Challenges and Ensuring Success
Integrating an XMO with robust advisory boards, while incredibly powerful, is not without its inherent hurdles. Proactive mitigation strategies are essential:
Securing Executive Buy-in: This foundational step requires senior leadership to not only champion the XMO’s creation but also to genuinely value and act upon the feedback from advisory boards. Mitigation: Develop a compelling business case, demonstrate clear ROI by linking experience improvements directly to key business outcomes (e.g., revenue growth, cost reduction, retention), and involve executives directly in initial board meetings.
Resource Allocation: Establishing, staffing, and effectively maintaining both a strategic XMO and active advisory boards demands dedicated human and financial resources. Mitigation: Start small and iterate. Begin by focusing on the most critical experience touchpoints, prove incremental value, and then scale resources as the benefits become undeniable and quantifiable.
Preventing “Feedback Fatigue”: Advisory board members are busy, valuable individuals. Ensuring they feel their time is genuinely valued and their feedback consistently leads to tangible action is paramount. Mitigation: Maintain rigorous closed-loop communication, provide transparent updates on progress, celebrate their contributions publicly, and respect their time with concise, focused agendas and clear pre-reads.
Translating Insights into Action: Moving from qualitative feedback to concrete, measurable organizational actions can be complex and requires strong analytical and change management capabilities. Mitigation: The XMO must employ robust analytics, facilitate strong cross-functional collaboration to dismantle silos, and define clear ownership for implementing improvements.
Case Study 2: Regional Retail Bank – Synergistic Employee & Customer Elevation
Transforming Branch Operations Through Integrated Feedback
A prominent regional retail bank was grappling with a concerning decline in customer satisfaction related to in-branch service, compounded by alarmingly high employee turnover, particularly among its front-line tellers. Despite various internal initiatives, leadership struggled to pinpoint the true underlying root causes of these intertwined problems.
In response, the bank strategically established an XMO reporting within its operations department. Crucially, they simultaneously launched an active Employee Advisory Board (EAB), comprising a diverse cross-section of tellers, branch managers, and key back-office support staff. The EAB quickly identified several critical pain points: severely outdated core banking software leading to protracted transaction times, unclear escalation paths for complex customer issues, and insufficient, infrequent training for new product offerings. In parallel, the bank’s existing Customer Advisory Board (CAB) provided consistent feedback echoing concerns about excessive wait times, perceived inconsistencies in service quality, and a lack of personalized interaction.
The XMO proved to be the indispensable bridge. It meticulously analyzed the EAB’s feedback on software inefficiencies and training gaps, cross-referencing it with the CAB’s complaints about wait times and service quality. This integrated analysis revealed a direct, causal correlation: internal operational friction points directly translated into poor customer experiences. The XMO then championed a high-priority, cross-departmental project to modernize the core banking software, streamline digital workflows, and introduce a comprehensive, tiered training program for all branch staff, directly based on EAB recommendations. Regular, transparent updates on progress were provided to both advisory boards, reinforcing their critical role. Within a single year, teller turnover decreased by a remarkable 20%, and customer satisfaction with in-branch service experienced a significant, measurable improvement, unequivocally validating the transformative power of integrating direct employee insights into holistic customer experience enhancements.
Key Takeaway: Integrating EAB insights with CAB feedback via an XMO reveals systemic issues, leading to co-created solutions that dramatically improve both employee and customer experiences.
Conclusion: The Future of Holistic Experience Leadership
The strategic integration of a proactive Experience Management Office with thoughtfully structured Customer, Partner, and Employee Advisory Boards represents the pinnacle of human-centered innovation and leadership. This powerful nexus creates a robust, empathetic, and continuous feedback ecosystem that not only informs and validates but also dynamically refines an organization’s entire experience strategy. It ensures that all strategic decisions and operational improvements are profoundly grounded in real-world perspectives, fostering deeper trust across all stakeholder groups, accelerating the pace of meaningful innovation, and ultimately driving sustainable, differentiated growth. For leaders aspiring to truly excel in the experience economy, this holistic, integrated approach is not merely an option—it is an undeniable imperative. It’s about orchestrating a diverse symphony of voices to create a harmonious, compelling, and continuously improving experience for everyone involved, building loyalty and advocacy from the inside out.
Contact me if you’re interested in working together to build or enhance your Experience Management Office (XMO).
Content Authenticity Statement: The ideas are those of Braden Kelley, with a little help from Google Gemini to shape the article and create the illustrative case studies.
Image credit: Unsplash
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When my husband and I became accredited as foster parents for children in need, I thought my skills as a trainer and facilitator would help me navigate the challenges we faced. I quickly discovered that when children arrived at our home late at night, often physically injured and emotionally distraught due to a tragic accident or being separated from their families, their primary need was for emotional safety. This began my long and enlightening quest into what it truly means for someone to develop both emotional and psychological safety. To discover and explore why both emotional and psychological safety are crucial for people to survive, innovate and thrive in the post-pandemic, unstable, and uncertain world.
The whole issue of “safety” is a crucial one. Causing many people, especially those in the change, learning and coaching space, to stop, pause, retreat, and reflect upon how to personalize and contextualize it for ourselves and others we care about and interact with. Yet so few people understand the importance of creating safe environments, especially today when there is so much hatred and violence happening on many of our streets.
We all deserve to, and are entitled to, feel emotionally safe and secure in all aspects of our lives.
What does it mean to be safe?
Because safety: the condition of being protected from or unlikely to cause danger, risk, or injury, impacts everyone and everything in our entire world system. It is an essential element required for our survival, growth, and ability to navigate and innovate in the post-pandemic era. Safety is critical in enhancing people’s capacity to connect, belong, and engage in purposeful relationships, build happy families and secure communities, as well as produce creative, inventive, and innovative work that helps make the world a better place.
What is emotional safety?
Emotional safety exists in an environment where individuals feel valued, respected, and heard, regardless of their values, beliefs, or religious or cultural origins. It involves allowing people to feel safe and secure, nurturing vulnerability, and sharing personal thoughts and feelings without fear of having their words judged as “bad” or “wrong.” Without facing punishment, discrimination, persecution, diminishment, blame, shame, hatred, or violence by others.
It’s a space where it’s safe to say “I don’t know” or “I made a mistake” without being labelled as incompetent or “lacking” in some vital way.
Improving well-being, engagement and productivity
Emotional safety is a vital element of an emotionally and mentally healthy environment that fosters well-being, boosts engagement, and enhances productivity. In such an environment, individuals feel secure enough to express, explore, and share their thoughts and feelings about themselves, their colleagues, managers, leaders, and even their organization as a whole. People feel respected and trusted to share ideas, establish boundaries, and be accepted for who they are, what they believe in, flaws and all.
“The tendency of relationship partners to think of themselves as members of a dyadic relationship rather than as distinct individuals. As close relationships, particularly romantic ones, develop over time, partners display increasing levels of mutuality, which may influence their affect, cognition, and behavior. In interdependence theory, the tendency of partners to depend equally on each other’s behavior for the attainment of desirable outcomes”.
We live in an interdependent, globalized world where developing emotionally safe, positive, and interactive mutual relationships across geographies, technologies, demographics, and functions is more important than ever. Mutuality lays the groundwork for creating a shared understanding that fosters a safe and open space for learning and effective interactions, based on cooperative, co-petitive, and collaborative relationships in the workplace.
Becoming attuned
Emotional intelligence, empathy, trust, and effective communication are vital for fostering emotional safety and form the basis for developing effective emotional regulation and management strategies. This enables us to attune to and connect with others with whom we wish to build relationships.
“When we attune with others, we allow our internal state to shift, to come to resonate with the inner world of another. This resonance is at the heart of the important sense of “feeling felt” that emerges in close relationships. Children need attunement to feel secure and to develop well, and throughout our lives we need attunement to feel close and connected.”
As a foster carer, my ability and willingness to attune with them represented the most important gift I could offer the children. It allowed them to feel close and connected to someone who genuinely cared for them by simply providing the most basic essentials. With no judgement or strings attached, and with both detachment and empathy, it also provided them with crucial evidence that this could indeed continue to be possible for them in their future lives.
As a trainer, facilitator, and coach, these are the key ingredients for establishing an emotionally safe and effective learning intervention, particularly about the people side of innovation and in building an organization that fosters a culture of failure.
Developing a psychologically safe culture
Emotional safety is closely linked to psychological safety, which is the belief that individuals can be themselves at work and share their opinions and ideas without fear of negative repercussions. According to Dr Timothy Clarke at the Leaderfactor, psychological safety empowers individuals and teams to reach new levels of creativity, collaboration, and innovation by nurturing a culture of inclusion and vulnerability. It is a social condition where people feel accepted and secure enough to learn, contribute, and question the status quo, free from fear of embarrassment, marginalization, or punishment, by creating an environment founded on permission, safety, and trust.
Embodying a way of being
Creating this emotional state or culture is much harder than most people think. Most organizations believe it’s something they must achieve through process and system changes, rather than by embodying it as a way of being a manager, leader, trainer, or coach who creates:
Sanctuaries of inclusion—a space where individuals feel safe and are encouraged to express their feelings, thoughts, opinions, and ideas, fostering a profound sense of inclusion, connection, and belonging.
Safe containers – a space where individuals confidently disrupt conventional or habitual ways of doing things, step outside their comfort zones, and challenge the status quo, allowing dissonance, contradiction, paradox, and conflict as sources of creative tension to disrupt, differ, and deviate from the norm.
Collective holding spaces—where individuals accept responsibility, take ownership, and are trusted to contribute to the entire system. By fostering co-creative, interdependent relationships both internally and externally, we work towards achieving the team’s and organization’s vision, mission, purpose, and collective goals.
Incubators and accelerators of innovation—where team members are free to emerge, diverge, and converge possibilities. They are empowered, enabled, and equipped to transform these into creative ideas and opportunities. Individuals and teams feel safe in unlearning, learning, and relearning new ways of being, thinking, and acting. This environment challenges the status quo by encouraging disruptive questions, taking calculated risks, and experimenting with new ideas within an authentic, fail-fast culture that promotes quick learning.
Benefits of emotional and psychological safety
Enhances individual, team, and collective engagement, connection, and belonging. It establishes a foundation for harnessing and mobilizing people’s collective intelligence in line with the organization’s vision, mission, and purpose.
Promotes effective team collaboration, where individuals feel at ease sharing their ideas, opinions, and concerns. It cultivates an environment where diverse perspectives can be openly discussed alongside differing views:
Inspires people to be emotionally energetic, agile, and adaptable in the face of uncertainty and chaos, as well as in a rapidly changing business landscape.
AI will continue to disrupt job stability and security.
Developing emotional and psychological safety is a key success factor that underpins a culture of innovation, as it creates the essential space for individuals to think and act differently. This is achieved through experimentation, learning from failures, and exploring new methods that lead to breakthrough ideas and innovative solutions, enabling individuals to survive and thrive in the age of AI.
Both job losses and opportunities
Fast Company shares that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has a stark warning for the developed world about job losses resulting from AI. The CEO told Axios that AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. This could result in a 10% to 20% rise in the unemployment rate over the next one to five years, Amodei says. The losses could come from tech, finance, law, consulting, and other white-collar professions, with entry-level jobs being hit the hardest.
Just as the children we fostered needed emotional safety, we all require emotional safety when walking our city streets. Similarly, while at work, we all need a psychologically safe working environment rooted in mutuality and trust. This is what allows individuals to attune to each other, feel secure, bonded, and connected, fostering a sense of belonging and unity. This requires investing in the co-creation of emotionally and psychologically safe spaces that attract and retain top talent, enabling individuals to feel valued, as they truly matter, and helping them adapt, innovate, grow, perform and thrive in a post-pandemic, unstable, and uncertain world.
This is an excerpt from our upcoming book, “Anyone Can Learn to Innovate,” scheduled for publication in late 2025.
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It is a blended and transformational change and learning program that will give you a deep understanding of the language, principles, and applications of an ecosystem-focused, human-centric approach and emergent structure (Theory U) to innovation. It will also upskill people and teams and develop their future fitness within your unique innovation context. Please find out more about our products and tools.
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Convinced that Strategic Foresight shows you a path through uncertainty? Great! Just don’t rush off, hire futurists, run some workshops, and start churning out glossy reports.
Activity is not achievement.
Learning from those who have achieved, however, is an excellent first activity. Following are the stories of two very different companies from different industries and eras that pursued Strategic Foresight differently yet succeeded because they tied foresight to the P&L.
Shell: From Laggard to Leader, One Decision at a Time
It’s hard to imagine Shell wasn’t always dominant, but back in the 1960s, it struggled to compete. Tired of being blindsided by competitors and external events, they sought an edge.
It took multiple attempts and more than 10 years to find it.
In 1959, Shell set up their Group Planning department, but its reliance on simple extrapolations of past trends to predict the future only perpetuated the status quo.
In 1965, Shell introduced the Unified Planning Machinery, a computerized forecasting tool to predict cash flow based on current results and forecasted changes in oil consumption. But this approach was abandoned because executives feared “that it would suppress discussion rather than encourage debate on differing perspectives.”
Within a few years, their success was obvious. Shell executives stopped treating scenarios as interesting intellectual exercises and started using them to stress-test actual capital allocation decisions.
This doesn’t mean they wholeheartedly embraced or even believed the scenarios. In fact, when scenarios suggested that oil prices could spike dramatically, most executives thought it was far-fetched. Yet Shell leadership used those scenarios to restructure their entire portfolio around different types of oil and to develop new capabilities.
Disney: From Missed Growth Goals to Unprecedented Growth
In 2012, Walt Disney International’s (WDI) aggressive growth targets collided with a challenging global labor market, and traditional HR approaches weren’t cutting it.
Andy Bird, Chairman of Walt Disney International, emphasized the criticality of the situation when he said, “The actions we make today are going to make an impact 10 to 20 years down the road.”
So, faced with an unprecedented challenge, the team pursued an unprecedented solution: they built a Strategic Foresight capability.
WDI trained over 500 leaders across 45 countries, representing five percent of its workforce, in Strategic Foresight. More importantly, Disney integrated strategic foresight directly into their strategic planning and performance management processes, ensuring insights drove business decisions rather than gathering dust in reports.
For example, foresight teams identified that traditional media consumption was fracturing (remember, this was 2012) and that consumers wanted more control over when and how they consumed content. This insight directly shaped Disney+’s development.
Shell and Disney integrated Strategic Foresight differently – the former as a tool to make high-stakes individual decisions, the latter as an organizational capability to affect daily decisions and culture.
What they have in common is that they made tomorrow’s possibilities accountable to today’s decisions. They did this not by treating strategic foresight as prediction, but as preparation for competitive advantage.
Ready to turn these insights into action? Next week, we’ll dive into the tools in the Strategic Foresight toolbox and how you and your team can use them to develop strategic foresight that drives informed decisions.
Image credit: Gemini
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