The Amazing Efficiency of Systematic Guessing

The Amazing Efficiency of Systematic Guessing

GUEST POST from Dennis Stauffer

Are you as personally efficient as you could be? Most of us aren’t, and that may be because we’re not as innovative as we could be. Being efficient—for people and for organizations—isn’t just about doing things more quickly and automatically. It’s about rapidly adapting to change and discovering new strategies.

Most organizations—and most innovators—are convinced that innovation takes extra time and resources. That’s certainly true at times, but also misleading. Because being innovative can also make you dramatically more efficient. Finding solutions, making improvements and inventing new ways of doing things can save countless hours and resources—and there’s a more immediate gain than those future benefits.

Let me explain it this way.

Imagine that your challenge is to figure out how to spell a simple ten letter word: INNOVATION. (And let’s pretend you don’t already know.) You can of course start guessing, but that will take a while—a long while. There are 26 letters in the English alphabet and ten in this word. So that’s 26 to the 10th power, or more than 141-trillion, possibilities! If you guess once per second—without repeating any—it will take you more than four-and-a-half million years to cover them all.

Suppose instead that you’re at a computer, one that won’t tell you how to spell innovation, but will tell you when you’ve guessed the right letter. In other words, you can do what skilled innovators do. You can continually check whether your ideas—your guesses—are working. Now, each letter will require at most 26 guesses, one for each letter in the alphabet. You can cover all possibilities in 26 times 10 or 260 attempts. At one attempt per second, that will take you less than four-and-a-half minutes. And you don’t need to know anything about how to spell the word when you start.

Of course, the challenges you face are probably more complex than spelling a ten-letter word, and it will probably take longer than a second to explore possible solutions. But as complexity grows, so does the relative efficiency of this kind of systematic guessing.

Suppose the word you want to spell has eleven letters—INNOVATIONS. Just trying to guess it will now take you 26 times longer. That’s more than a hundred million years! When you check each of your guesses, it only adds another 26 seconds. You’re still done in less than five minutes. A hundred-million years, vs. five minutes. That’s the astronomical gain in efficiency you achieve when you know how to systematically investigate what works.

It’s as though you’re facing a genie with a puzzle. You need to solve that puzzle to make your wishes come true, and the genie won’t tell you the answer. But the genie is willing to give you clues—in the form of consequences. So to solve the puzzle, you must attempt possible solutions that will generate consequences—feedback—that will tell you whether you’re on the right track. That’s what skilled innovators do—and anyone else who hopes to successfully handle uncertainty—which is all of us.

So, if someone tells you, you don’t have time to be innovative, tell them you don’t have time not to.

Here is a video version of this post:

The Innovator Mindset YouTube channel brings you weekly tips, tricks and insights into how to be more creative, innovative and personally effective.

Image Credit: Pexels

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Top 10 Human-Centered Change & Innovation Articles of November 2023

Top 10 Human-Centered Change & Innovation Articles of November 2023Drum roll please…

At the beginning of each month, we will profile the ten articles from the previous month that generated the most traffic to Human-Centered Change & Innovation. Did your favorite make the cut?

But enough delay, here are November’s ten most popular innovation posts:

  1. A Quantum Computing Primer — by Greg Satell
  2. Disagreements Can Be a Good Thing — by Mike Shipulski
  3. What’s Your Mindset — by Dennis Stauffer
  4. We Are Killing Innovation in America — by Greg Satell
  5. Two Kinds of Possible — by Dennis Stauffer
  6. Eddie Van Halen, Simultaneous Innovation and the AI Regulation Conundrum — by Pete Foley
  7. Five Secrets to Being a Great Team Player — by David Burkus
  8. Be Clear on What You Want — by Mike Shipulski
  9. Overcoming Your Assumptions — by Dennis Stauffer
  10. Four Things All Leaders Must Know About Digital Transformation — by Greg Satell

BONUS – Here are five more strong articles published in October that continue to resonate with people:

If you’re not familiar with Human-Centered Change & Innovation, we publish 4-7 new articles every week built around innovation and transformation insights from our roster of contributing authors and ad hoc submissions from community members. Get the articles right in your Facebook, Twitter or Linkedin feeds too!

Have something to contribute?

Human-Centered Change & Innovation is open to contributions from any and all innovation and transformation professionals out there (practitioners, professors, researchers, consultants, authors, etc.) who have valuable human-centered change and innovation insights to share with everyone for the greater good. If you’d like to contribute, please contact me.

P.S. Here are our Top 40 Innovation Bloggers lists from the last three years:

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Skills versus Judgement

Skills versus Judgement

GUEST POST from Mike Shipulski

Best practices are good, but dragging projects over the finish line is better.

Alignment is good, but not when it’s time for misalignment.

Short-term thinking is good, as long as it’s not the only type of thinking.

Reuse of what worked last time is good, as long as it’s bolstered by the sizzle of novelty.

If you find yourself blaming the customer, don’t.

People that look like they can do the work don’t like to hang around with those that can do it.

Too much disagreement is bad, but not enough is worse.

The Status Quo is good at repeating old recipes and better at squelching new ones.

Using your judgment can be dangerous, but not using it can be disastrous.

It’s okay to have some fun, but it’s better to have more.

If it has been done before, let someone else do it.

When stuck on a tricky problem, make it worse and do the opposite.

The only thing worse than using bad judgment is using none at all.

It can be problematic to say you don’t know, but it can be catastrophic to behave as if you do.

The best way to develop good judgment is to use bad judgment.

When you don’t know what to do, don’t do it.

Image credit: Unsplash

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CEO Secrets of a Successful Turnaround

CEO Secrets of a Successful Turnaround

GUEST POST from Shep Hyken

While most outside of the tech industry won’t know the Avaya brand, most will have experienced its technology if you’ve contacted customer support or communicated directly with a brand for any reason. It is a multinational technology company based in the U.S. that provides communications and collaboration technologies for contact centers in 172 countries, including 90% of the Fortune 100 companies in the U.S. Its product helps give a better customer service experience for its customer’s customers.

I had the opportunity to interview Alan Masarek about the Avaya story. Specifically, we discussed what happened since he joined the company less than one year ago. The short version of the story is that he and his leadership team successfully guided the company through Chapter 11 bankruptcy, restructuring its finances and streamlining its operations. And they did this while maintaining what Masarek calls Avaya’s North Star.

In referring to that “North Star,” Masarek says, “Customer service and experience is core to who we are and for every role in the company. Our customers count on us for the communications and collaboration technology that make customer interactions not only work, but work better.” He went on to explain the four core components they focus on:

1. Culture: Everything starts with culture. Masarek wants to make Avaya a “destination place to work,” which means attracting and keeping the best talent. Once you get good people, you must keep them there. His strategy for creating a “destination place to work” includes three components. The first is a rewards and recognition program that validates an employee’s efforts and creates a sense of accomplishment. The second is to create a culture employees want to be a part of. And third is to provide an opportunity for growth. Masarek says a company’s positive reviews and ratings on glassdoor.com, where employee rate their employers, is a success criteria he looks at.

2. Product: Avaya is a technology company and must continuously innovate and improve. They created a “product roadmap” where customers can see what products are being phased out, retained and, most importantly, being developed for the future. “We must deliver innovation—the right innovation—and we have to deliver it on time and with quality,” said Masarek. “We will be successful when we are both transparent (which is why Avaya published the roadmap) and reliable. When we deliver on that commitment over time, that reliability becomes trust.”

3. Customer Delight: If your customers don’t like the experience or the product doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do, they will find another company and product that meets their needs. Masarek recognizes the importance of customer delight and has invested heavily in hearing and understanding the “Voice of the Customer,” paying attention to customer satisfaction scores and NPS (Net Promoter Scores). Masarek is emphatic about customer delight, stating, “We are in service to the customer. CX is everyone’s responsibility.” And this isn’t just lip service. Those satisfaction and NPS numbers are tied to some of the employees’ compensation plans.

4. Accountability: “We must be accountable,” Masarek says, “to one another, to the customers, and to the results. When you take care of the first three (culture, product and customer delight), this fourth one becomes much easier to achieve.”

While sharing the entire story in a short article is impossible, you can see the overarching strategies and thinking behind Masarek’s leadership and Avaya’s success. And here’s my observation: It’s not complicated!

If you look at the four core components Avaya focuses on, you might say, “There’s nothing new here,” but don’t let simplicity, or that these seem like common sense, get in the way of incorporating them into your strategy. In good times and bad, focusing on culture, product, customer delight and accountability/results are the undeniable strategies that drive success.

This article originally appeared on Forbes.com

Image Credit: Unsplash

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Four Growth Mindset Myths

Four Growth Mindset Myths

GUEST POST from Stefan Lindegaard

It’s not about profit, you don’t have to be upbeat all the time and you actually have a hybrid mindset!

# 1 – Growth mindset equals business growth, profits

A common finding by Neuro Leadership Institute is that some leaders believe growth mindset is about profits. In reality, growth mindset is the continuous belief that improvement is possible and that failures are opportunities to learn

# 2 – You either have a growth or a fixed mindset

No, we have a hybrid mindset with growth and fixed traits. Whether one is stronger than the other is often situational. Know yourself in given situations and be careful when labeling others

# 3 – Organizations, rather than people, can have a growth mindset

A mindset is a personal thing and thus not a part of an organizational culture as such. However, the essence of the growth mindset in an organizational context is to instill a mindset that is wired towards always trying to get better rather than believing – and proving – that you are the best. It overlaps

# 4 – You have to be positive all the time

Developing a growth mindset is much more about self-awareness and development rather than being in a positive growth mode all the time. We all have our ups and downs

What’s your mindset and what behaviors does this bring along? What about your team? Let’s talk if you want some free resources or other help on this. Get in touch.

Stefan Lindegaard Four Growth Mindset Myths

Image Credit: Stefan Lindegaard, Pexels

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Reinventing the Retail Store

Online orders are increasingly fulfilled through stores, making retailers much more efficient and competitive

Reinventing the Retail Store

GUEST POST from Howard Tiersky

I’ve worked with a lot of online retailers over the years, and a frequent question I’ve received is, “When you have physical stores and you also have an online presence, where should you be shipping goods from?”

In the early days, a lot of retailers were trying to ship from their stores because that’s where the merchandise was.

Further, these retailers didn’t necessarily have the infrastructure or process in their warehouses to ship directly to the consumer. Their warehouses were just for shipping goods to the store.

But when e-commerce started to take off in a major way and orders jumped, those retailers that we’d think of as traditional large brick and mortar stores started to do the vast majority of their e-commerce shipping from centralized distribution centers, so much so that some actually had quite different inventory from their stores.

As a result, there was a period where chains were shipping from centralized distribution centers for the most part.

In some cases, these chains didn’t even expose you to what was available in the store when ordering online.

BUY ONLINE, PICK UP IN THE STORE

After that, retailers started trying to show us alternatives.

“Buy online, pick up in the store” became increasingly prevalent, with retailers creating more integrated systems that allow us to see the online merchandise that may not be available in the store, as well as the store merchandise that might not be available online.

Some of the merchandise was available in both places, and you could at least see the full universe through these systems.

You would know if an item was carried in the retailers’ stores, then you could find out if your local store had it, buy it online, and arrange to pick it up there.

Once retailers got to that point, it became more and more logical to have the store ship at least some merchandise out, as they did in the early days.

And today, we’re seeing even more shipping from stores because e-commerce orders that are “order online, pick up in the store” have risen substantially with Covid.

With more and more orders being fulfilled this way, it’s imperative that stores are able to handle e-commerce effectively.

NEWFOUND ADVANTAGE

In fact, Best Buy reported recently that 60% of their e-commerce orders are either buy online, pick up in store or buy online, pick up curbside.

More than half of their online orders are not only being fulfilled through the store, but they’re actually being physically picked up at the store.

As physical retailers continue their effort to compete with Amazon, they realize that one of the assets that they have that Amazon does not have at that scale is a physical store location.

It makes sense to use this shift as an opportunity to either make it convenient to pick up items that are ordered online or even start to use stores as distribution hubs to permit faster delivery for items that are ordered to the home.

In their recent announcement, Best Buy also reported that of their thousand stores, they have designated 250 of them as distribution hubs.

This means that they will be using those stores not only as physical showrooms but also as fulfillment centers for e-commerce orders.

So if you order something on the Best Buy website, it’s increasingly likely to come from the back room of your local Best Buy.

DISRUPTIVE CHANGE

This shift is interesting because it’s not just Best Buy—we’re seeing it across the industry.

And when you have a lot of retailers repurposing their physical locations as e-commerce hubs, there are bound to be greater implications.

For one, this change is going to affect store design, as stores will need larger storage areas and shipping facilities.

As a result, the ratio of the back of the store to the front of the store will probably shift.

It may also make a shift in terms of how stores think about real estate.

A location that may not have been viable due to a lack of foot traffic may all of a sudden make sense if it’s in a convenient spot for pickup or in a central location that allows online orders to be distributed to a large geographic area.

In focusing more and more on fulfilling orders through their store locations, Best Buy may see additional, industry-specific benefits.

In the electronic space, we know that there are a lot of SKUs, and it’s hard to keep some items on stock, particularly the ones that are popular.

The opportunity to leverage not only the inventory at a warehouse or distribution center but all the inventory sitting in their stores expands Best Buy’s ability to provide a great customer experience.

Today’s top retailers are making sure that if they’ve got that new iPhone, or camera lens, or obscure cable, or whatever it is that you’re looking for anywhere in their ecosystem, they are going to find a way to get it to you one way or the other.

This article originally appeared on the Howard Tiersky blog
Image Credit: Unsplash

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Competing Successfully in an Ecosystem World

Competing Successfully in an Ecosystem World

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

In 1980, a young Harvard Business School professor named Michael Porter published Competitive Strategy, which drove thinking on the subject for the next 30 years. In essence, he argued that you build sustainable competitive advantage by maximizing bargaining power throughout a value chain.

Yet more recently, that kind of single firm level analysis has been called into question and leaders have learned to look more broadly at ecosystems. In fact, a recent report by Accenture Strategy found that because business models are being constantly disrupted, ecosystems have become a “cornerstone” of future growth.”

While value chains are strictly defined by “primary activities” such as “inbound logistics” and “support activities” like technology, ecosystems have mostly been a nebulous term. Clearly that’s not good enough. If we are going to compete in an ecosystem-driven world, we need to understand how they function and how we can leverage them to drive a business forward.

What Is An Ecosystem?

Ecosystem is a term that gets thrown around quite a bit, but people never seem to define what one is. All too often, it alludes to some indescribable ether that surrounds an enterprise. When you can’t define how an action would impact a customer or partner, you simply invoke “the ecosystem” and that’s supposed to make it all make sense.

Yet it’s important that we define terms that have meaning, because if we don’t they just become a catchall for things that we can’t describe. That’s a problem. As Wittgenstein pointed out long ago, if we can’t define something we don’t really understand it and if we don’t understand something we can’t hope to manage it very well.

Ecosystems are best understood as networks of networks and that tells us a lot. In fact, there is a whole science of networks to guide us. What’s most important about networks is that they are driven by links not nodes, so the most important network activity is connection. Networks are dynamic, always evolving, not static.

That’s where focusing on value chains runs into problems. Maximizing bargaining power within a value chain almost compels us to see things as a static, “winner take all” type of challenge in which you play one partner off against another. When you see things as an ecosystem, however, there is clear value in investing in connections and building up the nodes around you to improve your position.

It Is Ecosystems, Not Inventions That Drive The Future

We tend to think of history as a series of “great men” driving events. So electricity conjures up visions of Edison and his light bulb and automobiles remind us of Henry Ford creating the Model T. Yet the truth is that the impact from those inventions didn’t come till decades after those men brought those inventions to life.

In both cases, it was secondary inventions that drove the impact. Electricity allowed businesses to redesign factories to optimize workflow and drive productivity. Home appliances replaced backbreaking work and freed up energy for other tasks. Roads and gas stations revolutionized product distribution and led to the modern retail industry.

Computers followed a similar path. Digital technology had been around for decades when IBM launched the PC in 1981, yet it wouldn’t be till the late 90s that we first started to see an impact on productivity. The truth is that computers don’t do much by themselves. Applications need to be designed and people need to figure out how to put them to good use.

Notice that it’s impossible to point to any one thing that tipped the scale, because what drove impact was an ecosystem of connections between partners, suppliers and customers who needed to learn how to collaborate effectively. That has far less to do with technology than it does with forging meaningful human relationships and it takes time.

Power Today Lies In The Center Of Ecosystems, Rather Than At The Top Of Hierarchies

Traditionally we’ve seen the world as driven by hierarchies. Kings and queens ruled the world through aristocracies that carried out their orders. Corporate CEO’s outlined strategies that underlings would have to execute. Discipline was enforced through a system of punishments and rewards.

In a hierarchy driven world, you progress by climbing your way to the top. So you do your best to drive the performance of those under you to impress those above you. Success is determined by how high you rise. You learn to put great emphasis on signals that you have made it, such as the title on your business card and the size and location of your office.

In an ecosystem driven world, however, power does not lie at the top of hierarchies, but emanates from the center of networks. So an office on the executive floor may, in fact, diminish your ability to shape events if it leads to disconnection. At the same time, being seen as approachable, rather than high status, may enhance your power.

Here’s where Porter’s ideas about value chains can get you into trouble. If you are constantly trying to maximize your bargaining power, you are likely to weaken connections and find yourself at the periphery, rather than at the center, of networks. In an ecosystem driven world, displaying your power can often serve to undermine it.

You Move To The Center By Connecting Out

As I explain in my book Cascades, the best way move to the center of networks is by connecting out. At first, that may seem counterintuitive because it seems simpler to identify a central hub and connect in. Yet those nodes, by definition, already have a lot of links and your connection is less likely to be meaningful.

Once you understand that networks are dynamic and evolving, it becomes clear that a better strategy is to identify emergent nodes and connect to them early on. As the network grows, the center shifts and you are more likely to improve your position. In an ecosystem world, the best strategy is to widen and deepen connections throughout the network.

AnnaLee Saxenian gives an apt description of how this works in Regional Advantage, where she tells the story of how Boston’s “Technology Highway” lost relevance and Silicon Valley moved to the center of the technology universe. The Boston-based companies saw things in terms of value chains and focused on vertical integration to maximize their bargaining power. The Silicon Valley upstarts, on the other hand, saw an ecosystem and thrived on connection.

Today, of course, technology has exponentially increased our ability to make connections. However, what is crucial to understand is that relationships are essentially a very human activity. You don’t build them through gadgets or algorithms, but my investing your most valuable resource — yourself.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog and an earlier version appeared on Inc.com
— Image credit: Pixabay

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Mental Orgasm – The Joy of Discovery

Mental Orgasm - The Joy of Discovery

GUEST POST from Dennis Stauffer

Recall a time when you made some discovery or figured something out for yourself. No one told you the answer. You didn’t look it up on your phone. You got there on your own. It might have been something recent, or you may have to go back, maybe even to your early childhood, to recall that moment of discovery. That thrill you felt. That excitement! It’s such pure joy that some researchers have described it as a mental orgasm.

Babies often experience this as they first learn about the world. It’s a moment scientists live for. A feeling that even the most jaded businessperson takes delight in. When something just works—and you made it happen. You solved the puzzle.

It was a frequent experience when we were babies, with a brain constantly driven to discover how the world worked. But it’s something we experience far less often as adults. From the moment you started school, you were gradually pulled away from personal discovery, and instead pushed to memorize things someone else discovered. Like how to solve a math problem, spell a word, or learn the periodic table. Those things are important, but not nearly as much fun as figuring things out for yourself.

So instead of moments of discovery, you’ve probably become conditioned to take pride in what you know. And that very pride can become an obstacle to making new discoveries. The more we identify with our knowledge, the more we want to defend it, making us resistant to understanding the world in new ways. It shouldn’t be hard to see how that might interfere with your ability to innovate, or adapt to changes in your life. The challenge we so often face is not just coming up with new ideas. It’s letting go of the ones we already have.

Innovators, and those who are most effective generally, are open to discovery. Instead of looking for reinforcement of what they already know, they seek experiences that will challenge their beliefs, always being open to revising those beliefs—open to discovery. An innovator mindset frees you to move beyond what you already know, to unleash your own brilliance. Giving you the mental agility needed to make discoveries again—and experience the kind of mental orgasm that creates.

Here is a video version of this post:

Image Credit: Pixabay

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Be Clear on What You Want

Be Clear on What You Want

GUEST POST from Mike Shipulski

If you want a promotion, do the right thing.

If you do the right thing, be prepared to be misunderstood.

If you want the credit, you don’t want the best outcome for all.

If you want to have focus, spend time outside.

If you want to have more control, give it away.

If you want to be happy, want what you have.

If you want to be praised, ask yourself why.

If you want to have focus, get your sleep.

If you want fame, once you get it you probably won’t.

If you want more influence, spend the next decade helping others.

If you want to make progress, demonstrate a healthy disrespect for the Status Quo.

If you want to make a difference, say thank you.

If you want to do what you love, maybe you should consider loving what you do.

If you want to have focus, get your exercise.

If you want to feel better about yourself, help someone who has a problem.

If you want to be more productive, it’s better to be more effective.

If you want to make change, point to the biggest problems and solve them.

If you want to be right, don’t.

If you want loyalty, take responsibility for the bad stuff.

If you want to be successful, same some of your energy for your family.

If you want to make progress, start where you are.

If you want to be happy, you have to decide that what you have is enough.

If you want to preserve your legacy, develop young talent.

If you want respect, be kind.

If you want to be understood, you may not do what’s right.

If you want to do better work, work fewer hours.

If you want to work on great projects, say no to good ones.

Image credit: misterinnovation.com

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Top 10 Thanksgiving Innovations of All Time

According to OpenAI, ChatGPT, and Tom the Turkey

Top 10 Thanksgiving Innovations of All Time

by Braden Kelley

Call me crazy, but I’ve always been a big believer in fun as a key component to the successful pursuit of innovation.

In the spirit of this belief and to celebrate this year’s Thanksgiving Holiday I thought I would ask OpenAI to make a list of the top ten Thanksgiving innovations of all time because I honestly have no idea what to put on such a list. So, in honor of the holiday, here is what it came up with:

1. Turkey Fryer: The invention of the turkey fryer revolutionized Thanksgiving cooking, providing a faster and delicious alternative to traditional roasting methods.

2. Canned Cranberry Sauce: The introduction of canned cranberry sauce made it easier to serve this beloved Thanksgiving side dish, eliminating the need to cook fresh cranberries.

3. Instant Pot: This versatile kitchen appliance has made Thanksgiving meal preparation much quicker and hassle-free, reducing cooking time for dishes like mashed potatoes and soups.

4. Green Bean Casserole: Created in 1955 by a staff member of Campbell Soup Company, the green bean casserole quickly became a Thanksgiving staple, providing a tasty and easy-to-make side dish.

5. Thanksgiving Parades: Starting with the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in 1924, Thanksgiving parades have become a cherished tradition, bringing joy and entertainment to families across the country.

6. Stuffing Mixes: Pre-packaged stuffing mixes have made it simpler to prepare the traditional stuffing, saving time and effort while still delivering the traditional flavors.

7. Pumpkin Pie Filling: Canned pumpkin pie filling has made it convenient for home cooks to make the quintessential Thanksgiving dessert, allowing everyone to enjoy a delicious pumpkin pie without the hassle of preparing fresh puree.

8. Thanksgiving Football: Thanksgiving football games have been a long-standing tradition for many families, providing entertainment and friendly competition after the big feast.

9. Online Recipe Resources: The availability of online recipe resources has made it easier than ever to find new and creative recipes for Thanksgiving dishes, expanding our culinary horizons and inspiring unique menu ideas.

10. Pop-Up Turkey Timer: This simple but effective innovation takes the guesswork out of roasting a turkey by indicating when it is done, ensuring a perfectly cooked bird.

Maybe I have been living in a cave, but I had never heard of Instant Pot so I had to Bing it. ChatGPT also suggested “Thanksgiving Themed Decor” which I thought was a bad suggestion, so I asked it for three more options to replace that one and ended up swapping it out for the beloved “Pop-Up Turkey Timer.”

I hope you enjoyed the list, have great holiday festivities (however you choose to celebrate) and finally – I am grateful for all of you!

What is your favorite Thanksgiving innovation that you’ve seen or experienced recently?

SPECIAL BONUS: My publisher is having a Thanksgiving sale that will allow you to get the hardcover or the digital version (eBook) of my latest best-selling book Charting Change for 55% off using code CYB23 only until November 30, 2023!

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