Category Archives: Government

We Need More Innovators and Scientists in Leadership Roles

We Need More Innovators and Scientists in Leadership Roles

GUEST POST from Pete Foley

Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate. We are in an innovation driven economy. AI, genetic manipulation, energy innovation, climate, and virtually anything driving change are all highly technical and complex. And all come with high stakes pros and cons.

Scientists and innovators navigating this requires strategic leadership that understands technical complexity, uncertainty and that collectively has some knowledge of basic science and engineering. 

Politics Lacks Scientists: Today, while more than half of US Senators have a law background, only one has a science PhD.  I believe this creates a serious gap in fundamental knowledge between our strategic leaders and the innovators that are driving change.

Experts or Oracles? Of course, our leaders have access to ‘experts’ to help them with complex topics.  But when the fundamental knowledge gap between leaders and experts becomes too big, experts become oracles. They pronounce rather than persuade. When this happens we risk the determining factor in strategy becoming superior communication skills, instead of knowledge or superior ideas.  The ideas (and regulations) that win are not the necessarily best ones, but the ones championed by good communicators, salesmen scientists or smooth talking lobbyists.  It’s dangerous to follow the science blindly, and even riskier to regulate what we don’t understand. That invites dangerous unintended consequences. But increasingly, that is the path we are on.
 

Why We Need More Innovators and Scientists in Leadership Roles

Of course, our leaders don’t need to all be 160 IQ polymaths with PhD’s in quantum mechanics. But to make good decisions they do need to at least be able to understand and apply critical thinking to the inevitably conflicting opinions of experts.

Communicating Science and Technology: Now of course, much of the onus for promoting understanding of complex technology lies with us in the broader innovation and science community.  If we cannot communicate knowledge to people who own resources and executive power, then we risk that knowledge becoming redundant.

But communication is always a two way street. Bridging between leaders and experts requires some common ground.  It’s really hard to have a useful discussion with someone who does even have a basic vocabulary for a topic. As technology and innovation become increasingly important, without more technically savvy leaders we risk a disconnect between strategy, regulation and knowledge. As our leaders get older, and more disconnected from the science driving change they rely less on quality of ideas, and more on appealing framing of ideas, or perhaps familiarity with equally disconnected experts. That is a dangerous path.

Non Scientific Mindsets Facing Technical Challenges. One key danger is the tendency to view choices as binary, another is sunk cost. Binary choices are superficially easy, but in the real world most innovation is not black and white, but instead involves some form of trade off.  Whether it is AI, energy strategy, pharmaceutical development or one of the other ever growing list of emerging technologies, there are benefits, but also costs.  With AI for example, the benefits of gaining and holding global leadership of the technology are likely as economically huge as the opportunity cost of not doing so.  But with big opportunity also comes big risks, including the environmental costs of data centers, risks to societal structure, and even existential risk to humanity itself.  The stakes don’t get much higher.

The Uncertainty Principle: And this is multiplied by the sunk cost fallacy. Over commitment to an incorrect binary choice can be really risky. While we know there are going to be pros and cons to any new technology, we rarely understand them very well in advance.  Innovation is by definition a dive into the unknown, and that makes accurately predicting both upsides and downsides really difficult.  This requires flexible, agile thinking, openness to new data, and a willingness to adjust mid-flight, skills inherent to science and technology . 

But as a society, if anything we seem to be moving away from flexible thinking, and towards more rigid viewpoints that are often heavily pre-primed by affiliations, preconceptions and bizarrely, politics.  People are often passionately for or against AI, but all too often without really knowing why. ‘Green’ energy is polarizing, climate change is divisive.  But while passion and ownership have their place, often the best answer is not cheerleading for a team. Instead it’s beneficial to find a flexible balance that acknowledges the pros and cons, and that ideally identifies non zero sum answers for those contradictions. But that again typically requires nuance, and some level of technical understanding. 

Finding Non Zero Sum Answers: The good news is that once we step away from polarized and binary thinking, non zero sum solutions are sometimes not as hard to find as we think.  Just as an example, with AI, there is potential to have our cake and eat it.   If we cut out digital slop, it’s conceivable that could we achieve and maintain technology leadership, but with much lower environmental cost.  For example, using AI to solve complex medical problems may be a net benefit that is worth some damage to our wilderness, or use of our scarce resources.  But action figures, generic illustrations, mediocre music and often pointless copies of master artists not so much!  I’m sure all of the latter help advance our knowledge to some degree, and help to justify AI investment, but by being more selective, could we achieve the same or similar ends with a superior benefit/cost ratio? 


The Human Advantage: But making smart trade-off decisions like this requires flexible and creative thinking.  Ironically that is one of the things humans still do better than AI.  We just need to embrace our human strengths, but also make sure our leaders also reflect those strengths.

Innovators in Leadership Roles: This means we need a more balanced and scientific approach to leadership if we are navigate the increasingly technology driven future.  Having lawyers making laws is not bad per se, but I passionately believe we need a more diverse set of skills at our upper leadership levels if we are to effectively navigate the coming years. That means the innovation and scientific community needs to step up.  We also need to get much better, and mea culpa, at communicating complex issues.  It’s critical to be clear and simple but not simplistic.

The Tyranny of Simplicity: Simplistic answers, memes, and binary choices have a great deal of superficial appeal.  And politicians and the media exploit this very effectively. In our information overloaded, time constrained world, everybody’s cognitive bandwidth is stretched.  We often seek answers rather than understanding because that’s all we have time for.  But from a leadership perspective, we need to understand that limited cognitive bandwidth is not the same as limited intelligence. People may grasp for simplistic answers, but because they have no commitment to them based on their own knowledge or critical thinking, that grasp is tenuous. This means that being simplistic can be self defeating in the long run.  For example, take the much quoted, ‘globally agreed’ climate target; to not exceed a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase since pre-industrial times. For sure, some people will accept this without question. But other enquiring minds will ask if 1.49C OK? Is this a tipping point? Do we fall of a cliff at 1.51C. Conversely, what happens if we exceed that limit and nothing dramatic happens?  Do we discard that boundary, or move it? Then there are obvious questions around how we address that boundary. What will it take to prevent crossing it?  What are the trade offs?  Who has the sphere of influence to actually make a difference?  It’s OK to have a simplistic position, but it needs to be supported by layered reasoning.


Cry Wolf: I’m not suggesting that climate scientists who promote 1.5C don’t grasp this complexity.  But somewhere in the path from science to politicians and media the real world complexity it often gets lost in translation.  And thats not trivial, as it creates the risk of ‘cry wolf’ effects, and of leaders being perceived as manipulative.   If we overstate the importance of 1.5 C, and it proves to be wrong, or at least a softer limit than previously advertised, we risk people perceiving that they have been mislead or manipulated.  That then feeds skepticism, and even gives support to some of the wilder ‘conspiracy theories’. Once a source has become discredited on one vector, it is typically discredited on everything. 

No easy answers to this.  But I believe innovators and scientists really need to take a bigger leadership role in a world where innovation is increasingly the driving force. Politicians generally don’t get elected because they deeply understand complex issues, but because they understand how to motivate, communicate, simplify and manipulate. They often rely on peoples limited cognitive bandwidth, as this helps them to craft simple slogans, concepts, and sometimes trigger fear and division. Remember that we dislike losing something about twice as much as we like gaining it, which makes fear a very powerful manipulative tool. That brings power, but not necessarily wisdom. But limited cognitive bandwidth is not the same as limited intelligence. And simplistic concepts are vulnerable to challenge, or evolving data.

Of course, we don’t want to make every issue a PhD thesis.  But we do need to acknowledge increasing complexity and uncertainty, and at the very least develop authentic, layered narratives that acknowledge complexity and the inevitable uncertainty of an innovation driven world.  Without that, our strategies become extremely fragile, and easily shattered the first time we are proved wrong. Even if we may start from a position of intense conviction, we must also change paths in the face of compelling evidence. Scientists and innovators tend to be good at this. It’s a skill that maybe needs to be used more broadly

Image credits: Google Gemini

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The End of AI Data Centers

Why Decentralized Compute is the Only Resilient Future

LAST UPDATED: May 11, 2026 at 11:24 AM

The End of AI Data Centers

by Braden Kelley and Art Inteligencia


I. Introduction: The Fragility of the AI “Crown Jewels”

The race to dominate artificial intelligence has triggered a global construction boom unlike anything the technology industry has ever seen. Governments and corporations are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into massive AI data centers packed with advanced GPUs, specialized networking hardware, and enough electrical infrastructure to power small cities. These facilities are rapidly becoming the economic and strategic “crown jewels” of the twenty-first century.

But in the rush to scale AI capability, we may be building exactly the wrong architecture for the world that is emerging around us.

The current model of AI infrastructure is overwhelmingly centralized. Instead of distributing compute across millions of smaller nodes, we are concentrating unprecedented amounts of economic, military, and technological capability into a relatively small number of gigantic facilities. Each hyperscale AI campus represents not only a massive financial investment, but also a critical dependency for national competitiveness, intelligence operations, logistics, cybersecurity, and military decision-making.

In effect, the AI industry has unintentionally created the ultimate single point of failure.

As AI becomes increasingly essential to economic productivity and national defense, these centralized facilities naturally evolve from commercial assets into strategic targets. Their importance guarantees that adversaries will study them, map them, probe them, and eventually develop methods to disrupt or destroy them. The more valuable these AI fortresses become, the more irresistible they become as targets during geopolitical conflict.

This reality formed the basis of a previous argument that the AI data centers of 2030 may ultimately require sovereign-level protection — potentially functioning more like hardened military installations than traditional commercial real estate. Once AI infrastructure becomes critical to national security, protecting it may no longer be optional.

But militarizing data centers only treats the symptom, not the disease.

Building bigger walls around centralized AI infrastructure may delay catastrophe, but it does not eliminate the underlying strategic vulnerability. A fortress is still a fortress. It still has a location. It still has supply lines. It still has power dependencies. And most importantly, it still presents adversaries with a concentrated target whose destruction could create disproportionate economic and military disruption.

Modern warfare is increasingly demonstrating that concentration itself is becoming obsolete.

The emerging lesson from contemporary conflict is that large, static, centralized assets are becoming dangerously vulnerable in an era of cheap autonomous systems, distributed attacks, cyber-physical warfare, and AI-enabled targeting. Resilience no longer comes from concentrating strength behind thicker walls. Resilience comes from distribution, redundancy, mobility, and the elimination of obvious centers of gravity.

The future of AI infrastructure may therefore require a fundamental architectural shift — away from the “Fortress” model and toward something far more decentralized and resilient.

Instead of concentrating compute into a handful of hyperscale compounds, the smarter long-term strategy may be to distribute AI capability across millions of interconnected nodes embedded throughout society itself. Homes, businesses, vehicles, factories, and local energy systems could collectively form a resilient national AI fabric that is vastly harder to disrupt because it has no singular brain to destroy.

In other words, the ultimate defense against the vulnerabilities of centralized AI infrastructure may not be better fortifications at all.

It may be the elimination of the fortress entirely.

II. Lessons from the Front: Operation Spiderweb and the Death of “Large & Static”

For decades, military doctrine revolved around concentration of force. Nations projected power by building larger air bases, larger aircraft carriers, larger command centers, and larger logistical hubs. Strategic advantage often came from assembling overwhelming capability in centralized locations that could be defended through scale, distance, and hardened infrastructure.

But modern warfare is beginning to expose a dangerous flaw in that logic.

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb offered a glimpse into the future of asymmetric conflict — and a warning for anyone investing heavily in centralized AI infrastructure. In the operation, relatively inexpensive drones launched from concealed shipping containers reportedly destroyed or severely damaged billions of dollars of Russian military hardware. The attack demonstrated how low-cost autonomous systems can bypass traditional defensive assumptions and threaten even heavily protected strategic assets.

The significance of the operation was not merely tactical. It was architectural.

A modern military aircraft may cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars to build, maintain, and defend. Yet those investments can now be threatened by autonomous systems costing a tiny fraction of the target’s value. This is the new asymmetry of modern conflict: increasingly cheap offensive capabilities versus increasingly expensive centralized assets.

The implications extend far beyond the battlefield.

Hyperscale AI data centers are emerging as the civilian equivalent of concentrated military infrastructure. A single AI campus may contain billions of dollars worth of GPUs, networking equipment, transformers, cooling systems, and backup power infrastructure concentrated within a relatively small geographic footprint. These facilities consume enormous amounts of electricity, require extensive water access, and depend on stable transportation and communication links.

In strategic terms, they are ideal targets.

Even if protected by advanced cybersecurity systems, physical security barriers, and military-grade defenses, the economics of attack versus defense are increasingly unfavorable. A nation may spend tens of billions hardening an AI fortress, while adversaries invest comparatively little developing autonomous drones, cyber-physical sabotage systems, electromagnetic disruption tools, or attacks against supporting infrastructure such as substations and fiber routes.

The uncomfortable reality is that static concentration itself is becoming the vulnerability.

This same lesson is already reshaping military thinking. Around the world, defense planners are reconsidering centralized command structures, massive forward operating bases, and tightly clustered logistics hubs. The future military is likely to become more distributed, more mobile, and more redundant — relying on decentralized command systems, autonomous coordination, modular logistics, and dispersed operational assets that can continue functioning even when individual nodes are destroyed.

AI infrastructure must evolve the same way.

If artificial intelligence becomes the backbone of economic productivity, national security, industrial automation, cybersecurity, healthcare, transportation, and military operations, then centralized AI compute becomes too strategically important to remain concentrated in a handful of giant facilities. The more essential AI becomes, the more dangerous centralization becomes.

The lesson of Operation Spiderweb is not simply that drones are dangerous.

The deeper lesson is that resilient systems survive by distributing critical capability across wide networks rather than concentrating it into singular targets. A decentralized system may lose individual nodes without catastrophic failure. A centralized system risks collapse if its core infrastructure is compromised.

In the emerging era of autonomous conflict, resilience increasingly belongs to the distributed.

III. The Social & Political Bottleneck: The Rise of the “NIMBY” Data Center

Even if centralized AI mega-campuses could somehow be fully protected from military and cyber threats, they still face another growing obstacle that may ultimately prove just as limiting: public opposition.

Across the United States and around the world, communities are increasingly resisting the construction of massive data centers in their neighborhoods. What was once viewed as relatively harmless digital infrastructure is now being recognized as an enormous industrial footprint with significant demands on land, water, electricity, and local infrastructure.

Residents are beginning to ask uncomfortable questions.

Why should local communities absorb rising utility costs, water consumption concerns, constant construction traffic, backup generator noise, and visual blight so that a handful of technology companies can consolidate AI power? Why should neighborhoods sacrifice scarce electrical capacity for facilities that may create relatively few permanent local jobs compared to their physical scale and resource consumption?

As AI adoption accelerates, these tensions are likely to intensify rather than diminish.

The scale of future AI infrastructure requirements is staggering. Advanced AI models require immense amounts of compute power, and every new generation of models appears to demand exponentially more energy and hardware than the last. Entire regions are already experiencing concerns about grid strain, water availability, permitting delays, and environmental impact as hyperscale facilities compete for resources with local populations.

This creates a growing sovereignty conflict between national strategic priorities and local community interests.

From the perspective of national governments, AI infrastructure increasingly resembles critical infrastructure on par with ports, railroads, telecommunications networks, or energy systems. Nations that fail to secure sufficient AI compute capacity may find themselves economically disadvantaged, technologically dependent, or strategically vulnerable.

But from the perspective of local residents, a giant AI campus often appears as an unwanted industrial intrusion that consumes disproportionate resources while providing limited direct community benefit.

The collision between these perspectives could become one of the defining infrastructure battles of the next decade.

Governments may attempt to override local opposition through federal permitting reforms, strategic infrastructure designations, or national security arguments. Technology companies may offer tax incentives, local investments, or infrastructure improvements to secure approval. Yet none of these approaches fundamentally solve the underlying tension created by concentrating massive amounts of AI compute into highly visible facilities.

The more AI infrastructure grows in scale, the harder it becomes to hide its impact.

This is why decentralization may represent not only a strategic advantage, but also a political one. It is partly because of expected increases in opposition to terrestrial AI data centers that Elon Musk and others are advocating for space-based AI data centers. But, even on earth we can solve both for fragility/vulnerability and growing political/social opposition.

Instead of forcing communities to accept gigantic industrial AI campuses, future infrastructure could become embedded into the fabric of everyday life itself. Rather than concentrating compute into enormous fortified compounds, AI processing power could be distributed across homes, apartment buildings, offices, vehicles, factories, and local energy systems.

In this model, AI infrastructure becomes largely invisible.

The electrical grid itself offers an instructive analogy. Most people rarely think about the countless distributed components that collectively generate and manage electrical power. The system works precisely because it is distributed, redundant, and woven into the broader physical environment rather than concentrated into a few singular facilities.

Decentralized AI compute could evolve in much the same way.

Instead of building isolated industrial parks dedicated exclusively to AI, society could gradually transform millions of existing structures into intelligent compute nodes. Homes equipped with solar panels, battery storage, smart electrical systems, and AI acceleration hardware could collectively form a national compute fabric that scales organically alongside everyday infrastructure upgrades.

The strategic benefit is resilience.

The political benefit is acceptance.

Infrastructure people barely notice is often infrastructure they are far more willing to live with.

Distributed AI infrastructure - PulteGroup, Nvidia, and Span

IV. The New Architecture: Residential AI Nodes (The Nvidia-Pulte-Span Model)

The transition from centralized AI fortresses to distributed AI infrastructure may sound futuristic, but early versions of this architecture are already beginning to emerge.

One of the clearest signals came from the 2026 partnership between PulteGroup, Nvidia, and Span — an alliance that hinted at a radically different vision for the future of AI compute. Instead of treating homes solely as passive consumers of electricity and internet services, the partnership pointed toward a future where residential properties themselves become intelligent infrastructure nodes participating in a larger distributed compute network.

At the center of this shift is the growing convergence of three technologies that historically operated independently: AI acceleration hardware, residential energy systems, and intelligent electrical management.

Nvidia provides the AI compute layer through increasingly compact and energy-efficient GPU systems optimized for local inference and edge processing. Span contributes the intelligent electrical infrastructure capable of dynamically managing household energy loads, battery systems, solar generation, and grid interaction. PulteGroup represents the large-scale residential deployment mechanism capable of embedding these systems into new homes at scale.

Together, these technologies begin to transform the modern home into something entirely new: a residential AI node.

This concept fundamentally changes the role homes play within both the energy grid and the digital economy. Traditionally, homes consume electricity, bandwidth, and cloud services while contributing relatively little back into the broader infrastructure ecosystem. But with intelligent power management, local battery storage, rooftop solar generation, and dedicated AI hardware, homes can evolve into active participants in a distributed national compute fabric.

In practical terms, this means millions of homes could collectively provide enormous amounts of distributed AI inference capacity without requiring the construction of massive standalone data centers.

The timing of this shift is important because AI workloads themselves are evolving.

Training frontier AI models will likely continue requiring large-scale centralized infrastructure for the foreseeable future. But inference — the process of actually running AI models to serve applications, automate tasks, power agents, process data, and support real-time decision-making — is increasingly capable of operating on smaller, distributed hardware systems.

That distinction changes everything.

Instead of routing every AI request through hyperscale facilities, future AI ecosystems may distribute inference workloads dynamically across millions of geographically dispersed residential nodes. AI processing could occur closer to the end user, reducing latency, improving resilience, lowering bandwidth costs, and minimizing pressure on centralized infrastructure.

The energy implications are equally significant.

One of the biggest criticisms of hyperscale AI infrastructure is its extraordinary power consumption. Massive data centers require huge dedicated energy resources that often strain local grids and trigger political resistance. Distributed residential AI nodes offer a different model by leveraging energy systems that are already being deployed into homes for broader electrification efforts.

Homes equipped with solar panels and battery packs effectively become micro-energy systems capable of storing and managing local power generation. Smart electrical panels can determine when energy demand is low, when renewable generation is abundant, or when excess electricity would otherwise go unused. During those periods, AI inference workloads could be activated opportunistically across distributed residential infrastructure.

In effect, AI compute becomes partially synchronized with the natural rhythms of the electrical grid.

Instead of building ever-larger centralized facilities that demand constant peak power availability, distributed AI infrastructure could absorb excess off-peak generation, stabilize demand curves, and make more efficient use of existing electrical capacity.

The homeowner incentives could also be compelling.

Just as homeowners today can sell excess solar generation back to the grid, future residential AI systems could potentially generate compute revenue by contributing idle processing power to distributed inference networks. Reduced utility costs, subsidized hardware, lower internet expenses, and participation payments could transform homes from passive infrastructure liabilities into productive digital assets.

This creates a powerful alignment between national strategic interests and individual economic incentives.

Governments gain a far more resilient and geographically distributed AI infrastructure. Technology companies gain scalable edge compute capacity without constructing as many hyperscale facilities. Electrical grids gain flexible demand management capabilities. And homeowners gain direct economic participation in the AI economy itself.

Most importantly, the resulting system becomes dramatically harder to disrupt.

A centralized AI fortress presents adversaries with a concentrated target. A distributed residential AI fabric diffuses compute capability across millions of ordinary structures woven throughout society. What once existed inside a handful of highly visible compounds instead becomes embedded everywhere and nowhere at the same time.

In the emerging era of strategic AI competition, that distinction may prove decisive.

V. Strategic Advantages of the Distributed AI Grid

If centralized AI infrastructure represents a high-value target with concentrated risk, then decentralized AI infrastructure represents the opposite: a system designed around dispersion, redundancy, and continual adaptability. The advantages of this shift are not incremental — they are structural.

The most immediate benefit is what might be called kinetic resilience. In a centralized model, a single facility may represent a critical node whose disruption could degrade national AI capability in a meaningful way. In a distributed model, however, compute is spread across thousands or millions of independent nodes. No single strike, outage, or localized failure can meaningfully degrade the system as a whole. The network simply reroutes, reallocates, and continues operating.

This changes the strategic calculus entirely. Instead of defending a small number of high-value assets at extraordinary cost, resilience is achieved through ubiquity. The system becomes less like a fortress and more like a living ecosystem — continuously adapting to localized disruptions without systemic collapse.

A second advantage is power efficiency and grid stability. Hyperscale data centers often require dedicated energy infrastructure, new transmission lines, and significant upgrades to local grids. They tend to behave like industrial-scale energy sinks, demanding predictable and sustained power delivery at massive scale.

A distributed AI grid behaves differently. By embedding compute capability into residential and commercial environments already connected to the electrical system, AI workloads can be dynamically aligned with existing energy flows rather than forcing entirely new ones.

In practical terms, this enables several efficiencies:

  • Utilization of residential solar generation that would otherwise be unused or exported inefficiently
  • Charging and discharging of home battery systems in coordination with AI workload demand
  • Shifting inference tasks to off-peak hours when grid demand is lower and electricity is cheaper
  • Reducing the need for large new transmission infrastructure dedicated solely to AI growth

Instead of AI competing with other sectors for scarce centralized power capacity, it becomes a flexible participant in a broader distributed energy ecosystem.

A third advantage is latency reduction and proximity to the user. As AI becomes more embedded in daily life — powering assistants, autonomous systems, real-time translation, predictive services, and physical automation — the distance between compute and user begins to matter more.

Distributed inference at the edge of the network enables faster response times, reduced dependency on long-haul network routing, and greater robustness during partial connectivity disruptions. In many cases, AI systems embedded in homes, vehicles, and local infrastructure can respond instantaneously without requiring round trips to distant centralized servers.

Taken together, these advantages suggest that decentralization is not simply a defensive posture against geopolitical risk — it is also an optimization of efficiency, responsiveness, and system-wide adaptability.

Perhaps most importantly, the distributed model reduces systemic fragility at exactly the moment AI systems are becoming more deeply integrated into critical societal functions. The more intelligence we embed into infrastructure, the more dangerous it becomes to concentrate that intelligence into a small number of failure-prone locations.

In this sense, decentralization is not a retreat from progress. It is an evolution toward resilience.

VI. Conclusion: From Fortresses to Fabrics

The trajectory of AI infrastructure is often described as a race toward scale: larger models, larger clusters, larger data centers, and larger investments concentrated into fewer and fewer locations. On the surface, this appears to be the natural endpoint of technological progress — efficiency achieved through consolidation.

But that framing assumes a world where concentration remains an advantage. Increasingly, the opposite may be true.

As AI becomes more deeply embedded in national economies, critical infrastructure, and defense systems, the risks associated with centralization grow in parallel with its capabilities. What once looked like an optimization problem begins to resemble a resilience problem. And resilience, in complex systems, rarely comes from concentration.

The “AI Fortress” model — massive, highly capable, strategically critical data centers protected by layers of physical and digital security — may represent an important transitional phase. It enables rapid scaling of capability at a moment when demand is exploding and architectures are still stabilizing. But it is unlikely to represent the final stable equilibrium.

Over time, the logic of vulnerability, energy distribution, political friction, and technological enablement all converge on a different structure: one that is distributed by default, not by exception.

In that future, AI compute is no longer something that exists “somewhere.” It is something that exists everywhere — embedded into homes, vehicles, factories, grids, and local systems, continuously interacting with the physical world rather than being isolated from it.

This is the shift from fortresses to fabrics.

A fortress is defined by its boundaries: inside is protected, outside is excluded, and value is concentrated at the center. A fabric, by contrast, derives its strength from interconnection. It is resilient not because it is hardened in one place, but because it is woven across many places. Damage to one thread does not collapse the structure; it is absorbed, rerouted, and contained.

A distributed AI fabric would behave in the same way. Compute capacity would be ubiquitous but not centralized, powerful but not singularly fragile, intelligent but not dependent on any single point of control or failure.

In this model, the question is no longer how to protect the brain of the system by enclosing it within ever more secure walls. Instead, the question becomes how to ensure there is no single brain to target in the first place.

That shift has profound strategic implications.

It reframes AI infrastructure from something that must be defended at a few critical locations into something that must be designed as a resilient, adaptive system distributed across society itself. It also aligns national security objectives with individual participation, energy efficiency with compute demand, and technological advancement with infrastructural sustainability.

In an era shaped by asymmetric threats, autonomous systems, and rapidly evolving geopolitical risk, the most robust systems will not be those that concentrate power most effectively, but those that distribute it most intelligently.

The future of AI infrastructure may therefore not be a monument.

It may be a mesh.

And in that shift from fortresses to fabrics lies the real foundation of long-term resilience in the age of artificial intelligence.

FAQ: Decentralized AI Compute and Infrastructure Resilience

FAQ

Why are centralized AI data centers considered vulnerable?
Centralized AI data centers concentrate massive compute, energy, and strategic value into a small number of physical locations. This creates single points of failure that can be targeted by physical attacks, cyber operations, or infrastructure disruptions, potentially causing disproportionate economic and national security impact.

What is meant by a “distributed AI fabric”?
A distributed AI fabric refers to an architecture where AI compute is spread across millions of interconnected nodes such as homes, businesses, and edge devices. Instead of relying on a few large data centers, intelligence is embedded throughout the network, improving resilience, reducing latency, and eliminating critical single points of failure.

How could residential AI nodes support the power grid and economy?
Residential AI nodes can leverage solar power, home battery systems, and off-peak electricity to run AI inference workloads locally. This helps balance grid demand, utilize excess renewable energy, reduce strain on centralized infrastructure, and potentially allow homeowners to participate economically in distributed compute networks.

EDITOR’S NOTE: You should read this article to learn more about Why the AI Data Centers of 2030 Will Be Sovereign Fortresses.

Content Authenticity Statement: The topic area, key elements to focus on, etc. were decisions made by Braden Kelley, with a little help from ChatGPT and Google Gemini to clean up the article, add images and create infographics.

Image credits: Google Gemini, SPAN (via mortgagepoint.com)

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The Consumption Collapse – When the Feedback Loop Bites Back

Why the Great American Contraction is leading to a crisis of demand and a re-imagining of the American Social Contract.

LAST UPDATED: April 17, 2026 at 3:58 PM

The Consumption Collapse - When the Feedback Loop Bites Back

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia


The Ghost in the Shopping Mall

In our previous exploration, The Great American Contraction,” we identified a fundamental shift in the American story. For the first time in our history, the foundational assumption of “more” — more people, more labor, and more expansion — has been inverted. We discussed how the exponential rise of AI and robotics is dismantling the traditional value chain of human labor, moving us from a nation of “doers” to a necessary, albeit smaller, elite class of “architects.”

However, as we move closer to the two-year horizon of the next United States Presidential election, a more insidious shadow is beginning to fall across the landscape. It is no longer just a crisis of employment; it has evolved into a crisis of consumption. This is the “Feedback Loop of Irrelevance.”

The logic is as cold as the algorithms driving it: As increasing numbers of knowledge workers and service providers are displaced by autonomous agents, their disposable income evaporates. When people lose their financial footing, they spend less. When they spend less, the revenue of the very companies that automated them begins to shrink. To protect their margins in a declining market, these companies are forced to cut back even further — often doubling down on automation to reduce costs — which in turn removes more consumers from the marketplace.

We are witnessing the birth of a deflationary death spiral where corporate efficiency threatens to cannibalize the very markets it was designed to serve. Over the next 24 months, this cycle will redefine the American psyche and set the stage for an election year unlike any we have ever seen.

It is time to look beyond the immediate shock of job loss and examine the structural integrity of our economic operating system. If the “Old Equation” of labor-for-income is a sinking ship, we must decide what happens to the passengers before we reach the horizon of 2028.

The Vicious Cycle of Automated Austerity

The transition from a growth-based economy to a Great Contraction is not a linear event; it is a recursive loop. As AI adoption accelerates, we are witnessing a phenomenon I call “Automated Austerity.” This is the process where short-term corporate gains from labor reduction lead directly to long-term market erosion. The cycle progresses through four distinct, overlapping phases:

Phase 1: The First Wave Displacement

We are currently seeing the replacement of both low-skilled physical labor and high-skilled knowledge work by autonomous systems. This isn’t just about factory floors; it’s about the “Architect” roles we once thought were safe. As companies replace $150k-a-year analysts with $15-a-month compute tokens, the immediate impact is a massive surge in corporate profit margins.

Phase 2: The Wallet Effect

The friction begins here. Displaced workers initially rely on savings or severance, but as those dry up, the “gig economy” safety net is nowhere to be found — because AI is already performing the freelance writing, coding, and administrative tasks that used to provide a bridge. Disposable income doesn’t just dip; for a significant percentage of the population, it vanishes. This causes a sharp contraction in discretionary spending.

Phase 3: The Revenue Mirage

This is the trap. Companies that automated to save money suddenly find their top-line revenue shrinking because their customers (the former workers) can no longer afford their products. The efficiency gains are real, but the market size is artificial. We are entering a period where companies may be 100% efficient at producing goods that 0% of the displaced population can buy.

Phase 4: The Secondary Contraction

Faced with shrinking revenues, boards of directors demand even deeper cost-cutting to protect investor dividends. This leads to a second, more desperate wave of layoffs, further reducing the tax base and consumer spending power. This feedback loop creates a Deflationary Death Spiral that traditional monetary policy is ill-equipped to handle.

“When you automate the consumer out of a job, you eventually automate the business out of a customer.” — Braden Kelley

Over the next two years, this cycle will move from the periphery of Silicon Valley to the heart of every American household, forcing a radical re-evaluation of how we distribute the abundance that AI creates.

Vicious Cycle of Automated Austerity

The Two-Year Horizon: 2026–2028

As we navigate the next twenty-four months, the gap between traditional economic indicators and the lived reality of American citizens will become a canyon. We are entering a period of Economic Bifurcation, where the distance between those who own the “compute” and those who formerly provided the “labor” creates a new social stratification.

The Rise of the ‘Hollow’ Recovery

Expect to hear the term “efficiency-led growth” frequently in the coming months. Wall Street may remain buoyant as AI-integrated corporations report record-breaking margins per employee. However, this is a hollow success. While the stock market reflects corporate optimization, our Alternative Economic Health Measures—like the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) — will likely show a steep decline. We are becoming a nation that is technically “wealthier” while the average citizen’s ability to participate in that wealth is structurally dismantled.

The Shift from ‘Doer’ to ‘Architect’ Burnout

The “Great American Contraction” is not just about those losing roles; it is about the immense pressure on those who remain. The survivors — the Architect Class — are tasked with managing sprawling AI ecosystems. This creates a new kind of cognitive load. By 2027, I predict we will see a peak in “Technological Burnout,” where the speed of AI-driven change outpaces the human capacity to design for it. This is where Human-Centered Innovation becomes a survival skill rather than a corporate luxury.

The Mindset of Survivalist Innovation

As the feedback loop of shrinking revenue intensifies, we will see American citizens taking radical actions to decouple from a failing labor market. This includes:

  • Hyper-Localization: A resurgence in local bartering and community-based resource sharing as a hedge against the volatility of the automated economy.
  • The ‘Off-Grid’ Digital Economy: Individuals utilizing open-source AI models to create value outside of the traditional corporate gatekeepers, leading to a “shadow economy” of peer-to-peer services.
  • Consumption Sabotage: A psychological shift where citizens, feeling irrelevant to the economy, consciously reduce their consumption to the bare essentials, further accelerating the contraction.

This period will be defined by a search for meaning in a post-labor world. The American citizen of 2027 is no longer asking “How do I get ahead?” but rather “How do I remain relevant in a world that no longer requires my effort to function?”

The Survivalist Innovation Framework

Beyond GDP: New Vitals for a Contracting Economy

As the “Old Equation” fails, the metrics we use to measure national success are becoming dangerously obsolete. In a world where AI can drive productivity while simultaneously hollowing out the consumer class, GDP is no longer a compass; it is a rearview mirror. To navigate the next two years, we must shift our focus to alternative economic health measures that prioritize human vitality over transactional velocity.

1. The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)

Unlike GDP, which counts the “cost of cleaning up a disaster” as a positive, the GPI factors in income inequality and the social costs of underemployment. As we move toward 2028, we must demand a GPI-centered view of the economy. If AI-driven efficiency creates wealth but destroys the social capital of our communities, the GPI will show we are regressing, providing a much-needed reality check to “hollow” stock market gains.

2. The U-7 ‘Utility’ Rate

Standard unemployment figures (U-3) are increasingly irrelevant. We need a U-7 ‘Utility’ Rate to track those who are “technologically displaced”—individuals whose roles have been absorbed by algorithms or whose wages have been suppressed to the point of working poverty. This metric will highlight the Architect Gap: the growing number of people who have the capacity for high-value human contribution but lack access to the compute resources required to compete.

3. The Social Progress Index (SPI)

The goal of an automated economy should be to improve the human condition. The SPI measures outcomes that actually matter: Access to advanced education, personal freedom, and environmental quality. By 2027, the SPI will be the most honest indicator of whether the Great Contraction is a managed transition to a better life or a chaotic collapse of the middle class.

4. Value of Organizational Learning Technologies (VOLT)

We must begin measuring the “Agility Score” of our nation. VOLT measures how effectively we are using AI to solve complex problems rather than just replacing workers. A high VOLT score paired with a low SPI suggests we are building a “learning machine” that has forgotten its purpose: to serve the humans who created it.

“A high-GDP nation with a crashing Social Progress Index(SPI) is merely a failed state in a gold tuxedo.”

The political battleground of the next two years will be defined by a new set of metrics similar to these (but likely different). The 2028 election will not just be a choice between candidates, but a choice between maintaining the illusion of growth or designing a system of sovereignty for the American citizen.

The Localized Pivot

The Sovereign Tech-Stack & The Localized Pivot

As the “Feedback Loop of Irrelevance” continues to shrink traditional income, we are witnessing a radical grassroots response: The Localized Pivot. When the macro-economy fails to provide value to the individual, the individual stops providing value to the macro-economy and turns inward to their community.

The Rise of the ‘Personal AI’ Infrastructure

By 2027, the barrier to entry for sophisticated production will vanish. We will see a surge in “Sovereign Tech-Stacks” — individuals and small collectives using localized, open-source AI models to run micro-manufactories, automated vertical farms, and peer-to-peer service networks. This is Innovation as a Survival Tactic. These citizens are essentially “unplugging” from the hollowed-out corporate ecosystem and creating a shadow economy that traditional GDP cannot track.

From Global Chains to Hyper-Local Resilience

The contraction of consumer spending will lead to the death of the “long supply chain” for many goods. In its place, we will see the rise of Regional Circular Economies. AI will be used not to maximize global profit, but to optimize local resource sharing. Imagine community AI agents that manage local energy grids or coordinate the bartering of skills — human-centered design at its most fundamental level.

The ‘Architect’ of the Commons

In this phase, the “Architect” role I’ve discussed previously becomes a civic one. These are the individuals who design the systems that keep their communities thriving while the national revenue shrinks. They are the ones building the Human-Centered Guardrails that ensure technology serves the neighborhood, not the shareholder. This shift represents a move from Global Consumerism to Local Sovereignty.

“When the national economic engine stops fueling the household, the household must build its own engine, or it dies.” — Braden Kelley

This localized movement will be the wild card of 2028. It creates a class of “Un-Architected” citizens who are no longer dependent on the federal government or major corporations, creating a profound tension for any political candidate trying to promise a return to the ‘Old Equation’.

The Road to 2028: The Politics of Human Relevance

As we approach the next Presidential election, the political discourse will undergo a seismic shift. The traditional “Left vs. Right” battle lines over tax rates and social issues will be superseded by a more existential debate: The Individual vs. The Algorithm. The 2028 election will likely be the first in history centered entirely on the consequences of a post-labor economy.

The ‘Humanity First’ Tax and Sovereign Solvency

The most contentious issue will be how to fund a shrinking state as the labor-based tax system collapses. We will see the rise of the “Compute Tax” — a proposal to tax AI tokens and robotic output rather than human hours. This isn’t just about revenue; it’s about sovereign solvency. When companies reinvest profits into compute rather than wages, the “Economic OS” crashes. Expect candidates to run on a platform of Universal Basic Everything (UBE) — providing the results of automation (healthcare, housing, and energy) directly to the people as the tax base from labor vanishes.

The Compute Tax

The Death of Traditional Immigration Debates

As I noted in our initial look at the Contraction, the old argument about immigrants “taking jobs” or “filling gaps” is dead. In 2028, the focus will shift to “Strategic Talent Acquisition.” The debate will center on how to attract the world’s few remaining irreplaceable “Architect” minds while managing a domestic population that is increasingly surplus to the needs of capital. This will create a strange political alliance between protectionists and humanists, both seeking to shield human value from digital devaluation.

Mindset and Likely Actions of the Citizenry

By the time voters head to the polls, the American mindset will have shifted from aspiration to preservation. We are likely to see:

  • The Rise of ‘Neo-Luddite’ Activism: Not a rejection of technology, but a demand for “Human-Centered Guardrails” that prevent AI from cannibalizing the last remaining sectors of human connection.
  • The Search for Non-Monetary Meaning: A surge in candidates who focus on “Quality of Life” metrics rather than fiscal growth, appealing to a class of people who no longer derive their identity from their “job.”
  • Algorithmic Populism: Politicians using AI to personalize fear and hope at scale, creating a feedback loop where the technology used to displace the worker is also used to win their vote.

The central question of the 2028 election will be simple but devastating: “What is a country for, if not to support the thriving of its people — even when those people are no longer ‘productive’ in a traditional sense?” The winner will be the one who can design a new social contract for a smaller, more resilient, and truly innovative nation.

Conclusion: Designing a Thrivable Contraction

The Great American Contraction is no longer a theoretical “what-if” for futurists to debate; it is an active restructuring of our reality. As the feedback loop of automated austerity begins to bite, we are discovering that a country built on the relentless pursuit of “more” is fundamentally ill-equipped to handle the arrival of “enough.”

The next two years will be a period of intense friction as our legacy systems — our tax codes, our education models, and our social safety nets — grind against the frictionless efficiency of the AI era. We will see traditional economic metrics fail to capture the quiet struggle of the consumer, and we will watch as the 2028 election turns into a referendum on the value of a human being in a post-labor world.

But contraction does not have to mean collapse. If we shift our focus from transactional velocity to human vitality, we have the opportunity to design a new version of the American Dream. This new dream isn’t about the quantity of jobs we can protect from the machines, but the quality of the lives we can build with the abundance those machines create. It is about moving from a nation of “doers” who are exhausted by the grind to a nation of “architects” who are inspired by the possible.

“The goal of innovation was never to replace the human; it was to release the human. We are finally being forced to decide what we want to be released to do.” — Braden Kelley

The road to 2028 will be defined by whether we choose to cling to the wreckage of the growth-based model or whether we have the courage to embrace a smaller, smarter, and more human-centered future. The contraction is inevitable, but the outcome is ours to design.

STAY TUNED: On Tuesday my friend Braden Kelley (with a little help from me) is publishing an article featuring one hypothesis for what an AI SOFT LANDING might look like.

Image credits: Google Gemini

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Win Your Way to an AI Job

Anduril’s AI Grand Prix: Racing for the Future of Work

LAST UPDATED: January 28, 2026 at 2:27 PM

Anduril's AI Grand Prix: Racing for the Future of Work

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

The traditional job interview is an antiquated artifact, a relic of a bygone industrial era. It often measures conformity, articulateness, and cultural fit more than actual capability or innovative potential. As we navigate the complexities of AI, automation, and rapid technological shifts, organizations are beginning to realize that to find truly exceptional talent, they need to look beyond resumes and carefully crafted answers. This is where companies like Anduril are not just iterating but innovating the very hiring process itself.

Anduril, a defense technology company known for its focus on AI-driven systems, recently announced its AI Grand Prix — a drone racing contest where the ultimate prize isn’t just glory, but a job offer. This isn’t merely a marketing gimmick; it’s a profound statement about their belief in demonstrated skill over credentialism, and a powerful strategy for identifying talent that can truly push the boundaries of autonomous systems. It epitomizes the shift from abstract evaluation to purposeful, real-world application, emphasizing hands-on capability over theoretical knowledge.

“The future of hiring isn’t about asking people what they can do; it’s about giving them a challenge and watching them show you.”

— Braden Kelley

Why Challenge-Based Hiring is the New Frontier

This approach addresses several critical pain points in traditional hiring:

  • Uncovering Latent Talent: Many brilliant minds don’t fit the mold of elite university degrees or polished corporate careers. Challenge-based hiring can surface individuals with raw, untapped potential who might otherwise be overlooked.
  • Assessing Practical Skills: In fields like AI, robotics, and advanced engineering, theoretical knowledge is insufficient. The ability to problem-solve under pressure, adapt to dynamic environments, and debug complex systems is paramount.
  • Cultural Alignment Through Action: Observing how candidates collaborate, manage stress, and iterate on solutions in a competitive yet supportive environment reveals more about their true cultural fit than any behavioral interview.
  • Building a Diverse Pipeline: By opening up contests to a wider audience, companies can bypass traditional biases inherent in resume screening, leading to a more diverse and innovative workforce.

Beyond Anduril: Other Pioneers of Performance-Based Hiring

Anduril isn’t alone in recognizing the power of real-world challenges to identify top talent. Several other forward-thinking organizations have adopted similar, albeit varied, approaches:

Google’s Code Jam and Hash Code

For years, Google has leveraged competitive programming contests like Code Jam and Hash Code to scout for software engineering talent globally. These contests present participants with complex algorithmic problems that test their coding speed, efficiency, and problem-solving abilities. While not always directly leading to a job offer for every participant, top performers are often fast-tracked through the interview process. This allows Google to identify engineers who can perform under pressure and think creatively, rather than just those who can ace a whiteboard interview. It’s a prime example of turning abstract coding prowess into a tangible demonstration of value.

Kaggle Competitions for Data Scientists

Kaggle, now a Google subsidiary, revolutionized how data scientists prove their worth. Through its platform, companies post real-world data science problems—from predicting housing prices to identifying medical conditions from images—and offer prize money, and often, connections to jobs, to the teams that develop the best models. This creates a meritocracy where the quality of one’s predictive model speaks louder than any resume. Many leading data scientists have launched their careers or been recruited directly from their performance in Kaggle competitions. It transforms theoretical data knowledge into demonstrable insights that directly impact business outcomes.

The Human Element in the Machine Age

What makes these initiatives truly human-centered? It’s the recognition that while AI and automation are transforming tasks, the human capacity for ingenuity, adaptation, and critical thinking remains irreplaceable. These contests aren’t about finding people who can simply operate machines; they’re about finding individuals who can teach the machines, design the next generation of algorithms, and solve problems that don’t yet exist. They foster an environment of continuous learning and application, perfectly aligning with the “purposeful learning” philosophy.

The Anduril AI Grand Prix, much like Google’s and Kaggle’s initiatives, de-risks the hiring process by creating a performance crucible. It’s a pragmatic, meritocratic, and ultimately more effective way to build the teams that will define the next era of technological advancement. As leaders, our challenge is to move beyond conventional wisdom and embrace these innovative models, ensuring we’re not just ready for the future of work, but actively shaping it.

Anduril Fury


Frequently Asked Questions

What is challenge-based hiring?

Challenge-based hiring is a recruitment strategy where candidates demonstrate their skills and problem-solving abilities by completing a real-world task, project, or competition, rather than relying solely on resumes and interviews.

What are the benefits of this approach for companies?

Companies can uncover hidden talent, assess practical skills, observe cultural fit in action, and build a more diverse talent pipeline by focusing on demonstrable performance.

How does this approach benefit candidates?

Candidates get a fair chance to showcase their true abilities regardless of traditional credentials, gain valuable experience, and often get direct access to influential companies and potential job offers based purely on merit.

To learn more about transforming your organization’s talent acquisition strategy, reach out to explore how human-centered innovation can reshape your hiring practices.

Image credits: Wikimedia Commons, Google Gemini

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A New Era of Economic Warfare Arrives

Is Your Company Prepared?

LAST UPDATED: January 9, 2026 at 3:55PM

A New Era of Economic Warfare Arrives

GUEST POST from Art Inteligencia

Economic warfare rarely announces itself. It embeds quietly into systems designed for trust, openness, and speed. By the time damage becomes visible, advantage has already shifted.

This new era of conflict is not defined by tanks or tariffs alone, but by the strategic exploitation of interdependence — where innovation ecosystems, supply chains, data flows, and cultural platforms become contested terrain.

The most effective economic attacks do not destroy systems outright. They drain them slowly enough to avoid response.

Weaponizing Openness

For decades, the United States has benefited from a research and innovation model grounded in openness, collaboration, and academic freedom. Those same qualities, however, have been repeatedly exploited.

Publicly documented prosecutions, investigations, and corporate disclosures describe coordinated efforts to extract intellectual property from American universities, national laboratories, and private companies through undisclosed affiliations, parallel research pipelines, and cyber-enabled theft.

This is not opportunistic theft. It is strategic harvesting.

When innovation can be copied faster than it can be created, openness becomes a liability instead of a strength.

Cyber Persistence as Economic Strategy

Cyber operations today prioritize persistence over spectacle. Continuous access to sensitive systems allows competitors to shortcut development cycles, underprice rivals, and anticipate strategic moves.

The goal is not disruption — it is advantage.

Skydio and Supply Chain Chokepoints

The experience of American drone manufacturer Skydio illustrates how economic pressure can be applied without direct confrontation.

After achieving leadership through autonomy and software-driven innovation rather than low-cost manufacturing, Skydio encountered pressure through access constraints tied to upstream supply chains.

This was a calculated attack on a successful American business. It serves as a stark reminder: if you depend on a potential adversary for your components, your success is only permitted as long as it doesn’t challenge their dominance. We must decouple our innovation from external control, or we will remain permanently vulnerable.

When supply chains are weaponized, markets no longer reward the best ideas — only the most protected ones.

Agricultural and Biological Vulnerabilities

Incidents involving the unauthorized movement of biological materials related to agriculture and bioscience highlight a critical blind spot. Food systems are economic infrastructure.

Crop blight, livestock disease, and agricultural disruption do not need to be dramatic to be devastating. They only need to be targeted, deniable, and difficult to attribute.

Pandemics and Systemic Shock

The origins of COVID-19 remain contested, with investigations examining both natural spillover and laboratory-associated scenarios. From an economic warfare perspective, attribution matters less than exposure.

The pandemic revealed how research opacity, delayed disclosure, and global interdependence can cascade into economic devastation on a scale rivaling major wars.

Resilience must be designed for uncertainty, not certainty.

The Attention Economy as Strategic Terrain and Algorithmic Narcotic

Platforms such as TikTok represent a new form of economic influence: large-scale behavioral shaping.

Regulatory and academic concerns focus on data governance, algorithmic amplification, and the psychological impact on youth attention, agency, and civic engagement.

TikTok is not just a social media app; it is a cognitive weapon. In China, the algorithm pushes “Douyin” users toward educational content, engineering, and national achievement. In America, the algorithm pushes our youth toward mindless consumption, social fragmentation, and addictive cycles that weaken the mental resilience of the next generation. This is an intentional weakening of our human capital. By controlling the narrative and the attention of 170 million Americans, American children are part of a massive experiment in psychological warfare, designed to ensure that the next generation of Americans is too distracted to lead and too divided to innovate.

Whether intentional or emergent, influence over attention increasingly translates into long-term economic leverage.

The Human Cost of Invisible Conflict

Economic warfare succeeds because its consequences unfold slowly: hollowed industries, lost startups, diminished trust, and weakened social cohesion.

True resilience is not built by reacting to attacks, but by redesigning systems so exploitation becomes expensive and contribution becomes the easiest path forward.

Conclusion

This is not a call for isolation or paranoia. It is a call for strategic maturity.

Openness without safeguards is not virtue — it is exposure. Innovation without resilience is not leadership — it is extraction.

The era of complacency must end. We must treat economic security as national security. This means securing our universities, diversifying our supply chains, and demanding transparency in our digital and biological interactions. We have the power to stoke our own innovation bonfire, but only if we are willing to protect it from those who wish to extinguish it.

The next era of competition will reward nations and companies that design systems where trust is earned, reciprocity is enforced, and long-term value creation is protected.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is economic warfare?

Economic warfare refers to the use of non-military tools — such as intellectual property extraction, cyber operations, supply chain control, and influence platforms — to weaken a rival’s economic position and long-term competitiveness.

Is China the only country using these tactics?

No. Many nations engage in forms of economic competition that blur into coercion. The concern highlighted here is about scale, coordination, and the systematic exploitation of open systems.

How should the United States respond?

By strengthening resilience rather than retreating from openness — protecting critical research, diversifying supply chains, aligning innovation policy with national strategy, and designing systems that reward contribution over extraction.

How should your company protect itself?

Companies should identify their critical knowledge assets, limit unnecessary exposure, diversify suppliers, strengthen cybersecurity, enforce disclosure and governance standards, and design partnerships that balance collaboration with protection. Resilience should be treated as a strategic capability, not a compliance exercise.

Image credits: Google Gemini

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Addressing the Veteran Mental Health Crisis

A New Frontier in Healing for Memorial Day Weekend

Addressing the Veteran Mental Health Crisis

by Braden Kelley and Art Inteligencia

As a nation, we have an enduring obligation to the brave individuals who have served in our military. On this Memorial Day weekend, while we honor their sacrifice, we must also look toward a future where we care for the psychological wounds of war. One of the greatest challenges we face is the veteran mental health crisis, with high rates of PTSD, depression, and suicide. Emerging research suggests that psychedelic treatments could significantly alleviate these conditions, providing a new pathway to healing that we cannot afford to ignore.

Understanding the Crisis

The statistics are alarming. According to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), approximately 17 veterans die by suicide every day. Furthermore, the VA estimates that around 15% of Vietnam veterans, 12% of Gulf War veterans, and 11-20% of veterans who served in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom suffer from PTSD in a given year. Traditional treatments like psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy have proven beneficial for some, but many veterans experience symptoms that persist despite these interventions.

The Promise of Psychedelics

In recent years, researchers have turned their attention to the therapeutic potential of psychedelic substances such as MDMA, psilocybin, and LSD. These substances are showing promise in treating PTSD, depression, and other mental health issues. A landmark study conducted by the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS) in collaboration with the VA found that 67% of participants treated with MDMA-assisted therapy no longer met the diagnostic criteria for PTSD after three sessions. This is a groundbreaking finding that cannot be ignored.

Similarly, psilocybin, the active compound in “magic mushrooms,” has shown potential in alleviating depression and anxiety symptoms in numerous studies. A study from Johns Hopkins Medicine demonstrated that psilocybin-assisted therapy resulted in rapid and sustained reductions in depression severity, with effects lasting for weeks and even months. The therapeutic mechanisms of psychedelics, which include altering neural network connectivity and promoting emotional processing, offer a new realm of possibilities for treatment.

Legal and Regulatory Challenges

Despite promising results, the legal status of these substances remains a significant barrier. Classified as Schedule I substances under the Controlled Substances Act, they are currently deemed to have “no accepted medical use.” However, as the evidence base strengthens, there is growing momentum for reevaluating this classification. States like Oregon and cities such as Denver have decriminalized psilocybin, paving the way for broader acceptance and access.

Building a Comprehensive Support System

To address the veteran mental health crisis effectively, we must take a multi-faceted approach:

  1. Policy Revision and Advocacy: It is crucial for policymakers to prioritize the revision of regulations surrounding psychedelics. We need comprehensive legislative efforts to reclassify these substances, allowing for more extensive research and greater accessibility.
  2. Research and Training: Increased funding for research into psychedelic-assisted therapies is essential. Universities, independent research organizations, and the VA should collaborate to expand clinical trials. Alongside research, training programs for mental health professionals must be developed to ensure they are well-equipped to provide these treatments safely and effectively.
  3. Education and Awareness: Public awareness campaigns can help destigmatize mental health and psychedelic treatments. Stories of healing and recovery should be shared, and educational resources must be made available to veterans, their families, and the general public.
  4. Holistic Care Models: Veteran care must incorporate holistic and integrative approaches, including mindfulness, nutrition, and community support, alongside psychedelic treatments. These support systems are vital for sustaining mental health and can multiply the therapeutic effects of psychedelics.
  5. Veteran-Centric Programs: Programs tailored specifically to veterans’ unique experiences and needs should be developed. Peer support systems, where veterans can share their experiences and support one another through healing, can enhance recovery outcomes.

The Role of Community

Community plays a pivotal role in healing. As a nation, we must foster environments that not only support veterans but actively engage them in the healing process. Community centers focused on veteran well-being, alongside integration programs that help veterans transition back into civilian life with purpose and support, can be transformative.

The Moral Imperative

As we commemorate Memorial Day, we must also reflect on our moral duty to those who have served. The veteran mental health crisis is a call to action—an opportunity not only to acknowledge the sacrifices of our military personnel but to invest in their healing and well-being. Psychedelic treatments represent a beacon of hope, backed by rigorous science and positive outcomes. It is essential for us to come together as a society, to push for changes that reflect our commitment to caring for veterans in the most effective and compassionate ways possible.

Conclusion

The journey to mental health recovery for veterans is not an easy one, but it is a journey we must undertake collectively. By embracing innovation and fostering an environment of openness and support, we can lead the way in addressing the mental health crisis that afflicts our veterans. The time to act is now. With courage, compassion, and collaboration, we can chart a course toward healing and honor the legacy of those who have served with dignity and responsibility.

In the spirit of unity and progress, let us stand together to advocate for effective solutions and a brighter future for all veterans. Their healing is our mission. Let us not falter in this duty.


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Image Credit: Microsoft CoPilot

Content Authenticity Statement: Most of the paragraphs in the article were created with the help of OpenAI Playground.

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China’s Disastrous One Child Policy

Unraveling the Unintended Consequences

China's Disastrous One Child Policy

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

In 1979, China’s leaders implemented the now-infamous “One Child Policy.” Designed to curb population growth, the policy succeeded in reducing birth rates almost immediately. But it also unleashed a cascade of severe and unintended social consequences that the nation is still trying to untangle.

Because many Chinese couples favored boys over girls, the One Child policy began to skew the gender ratio. It gave rise to the so-called “little emperor” syndrome among only children. Most significantly, a birth dearth gave rise to a rapidly aging population.

Today, that aging population poses a long-term crisis threatening to upend China’s economic momentum. With a shrinking workforce and fewer young workers, productivity has declined as soaring healthcare and pension costs strain national resources.

Decades of restricting birth have created a demographic imbalance. Fewer caregivers are available to support a growing elderly population. Once a driver of China’s growth, consumer spending is shifting away from housing, education, and discretionary goods. Industries across the board are feeling the squeeze, while the burden on younger generations grows ever heavier.

China is scrambling to undo the decision: raising the retirement age, pushing automation in fields and factories, and offering incentives for couples to have more children. But the results have been underwhelming. Reversing the unintended consequences of that single 1979 policy decision has been anything but easy.

Governmental responses include birth subsidies, stronger maternity and paternity leave, and numerous efforts to bolster workplace protections for women. No matter how creatively or emphatically the government promotes fertility, young Chinese couples are simply not making more babies.

Result: China stands to lose five to ten million working-age adults each year, while gaining an equal number of elderly people.

In researching a new book on decision-making in an uncertain world, I frequently encounter unintended consequences. The Trump administration’s recent imposition of across-the-board tariffs is an example. The announcement of these controversially named “reciprocal tariffs” prompted retaliation from trade partners and immediately triggered a stock market crash. The aggressive U.S. tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50 percent, according to economists polled by Reuters.

At the time, China’s One-Child Policy seemed like a no-brainer, a logical response to burgeoning, unsustainable population growth. But its long-term impacts on culture, economics, and national competitiveness were profoundly underestimated.

Key point: When making decisions of significant impact, consider what you want to happen and if your plan will bring this desired state into being. But consider also what might unfold if your plan doesn’t work — and if your plan works all too well. The payoff from taking the extra time will be worth it. Just ask China.

This article originally appeared in Forbes

Image credit: Pexels

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Six Key Lessons From COVID-19

Six Key Lessons From COVID-19

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

During the fall of 2019, in a lab in Wuhan, China, a cluster of atoms weighing less than one-trillionth of a gram mutated ever so slightly, cascading into the greatest disruption to human life in over a century. COVID-19 would go on to the lives of over 20 million people worldwide and over a million in the United States.

In a matter of months, the coronavirus had reshaped our world. It forced us indoors, upended economies, and brought suffering and loss to millions. It exposed cracks in our systems and magnified existing inequalities. And it tested the leadership of institutions, governments, and businesses.

Yet amidst the upheaval, it also accelerated innovation in vaccine development, proved the potential of global collaboration, and offered valuable lessons—lessons we dare not ignore.

Five years on, with the benefit of hindsight, what lessons did we learn from the Covid Crisis? What are the takeaways? What ideas can we carry forward? And how can we better prepare for next time? Here are six enduring lessons that the pandemic offers:

1. COVID-19 United Us at First But Divided Us at last.

According to a recent Pew survey, seventy-two percent of Americans believe COVID-19 did more to drive the country apart than to bring it together. Trust in government plummeted to a new low. In Covid’s Wake: How Our Politics Failed Us, a new book that reviews the crisis, concludes that the scientific community overestimated the dangers of the virus and stifled dissenting scientific opinion. Models were designed solely to reduce deaths, failing to include other criteria, such as the effects of social isolation on children’s mental health. Locking down at the pandemic’s start may have been necessary, say these authors, but continuing the lockdowns for so long created lasting hardship and divisions.

Key takeaway: In a politically polarized era, one-size-fits-all health mandates from the National Institute of Health must be avoided. Public trust must be maintained, and local control ensured.

2. Resilience Is No Longer a Luxury—It’s a Necessity.

When COVID-19 struck, organizations and individuals who demonstrated resilience – did best. They exhibited the ability to keep calm, remain flexible, and adapt readily, and weathered the storm far better than those who went into denial mode or dismissed COVID-19 as a hoax or government conspiracy. When supply chains buckled, when health officials enforced lockdowns, organizations that had invested in contingency planning and crisis management demonstrated resilience and staying power.

Key takeaway: Leaders who encouraged experimentation found the path forward. Those that did not floundered and went out of business. Individuals who cultivated a learning mindset, continuously monitoring and following the latest directives, kept functioning and recovered faster.

3. Health Security Is National Security.

In a 2015 TED Talk, Bill Gates warned that the greatest threat to humanity would come “not from a missile but a microbe.” Before the pandemic, a cascade of warnings went unheeded. In 2019, White House economists warned that a pandemic could devastate America. As the pandemic unfolded, delayed responses, magical thinking, mixed messages, and lack of coordination cost precious time and countless lives.

Before COVID-19, most thought little about public health infrastructure or infectious disease modeling. COVID-19 made clear that underinvesting in public health is not just a medical risk but a geopolitical and economic risk as well. In today’s interconnected world, a virus emerging in one corner of the globe can bring entire economies to a halt and overwhelm healthcare systems thousands of miles away.

Key takeaway: Investments in early warning systems, stockpiling of essential medical supplies, and better international coordination must be considered strategic imperatives, not budget line items. Health security is just as important as military security.

4. Inequality Doesn’t Disappear in Crisis—It Gets Exposed.

While the virus itself was biologically impartial, its impacts were anything but. Marginalized and vulnerable communities bore the brunt of both the health and economic fallout. Disparities in access to healthcare, employment protections, digital connectivity, and even clean air and water became painfully visible.

Essential workers—once taken for granted—emerged as the backbone of society. Grocery clerks, delivery drivers, sanitation workers, and healthcare aides kept our systems running while risking their own health. For a brief moment, the conversation around equity and inclusion gained renewed urgency.

Key takeaway: The challenge now is to act on that awareness going forward. The post-pandemic world must actively work to close gaps, not widen them, because, in the next crisis, those disparities will come back to haunt us all over again.

5. Innovation Is Our Lifeline in Crisis, and in the Future We Create.

In the darkest days of the pandemic, human ingenuity shined. Scientists across borders collaborated at unprecedented speeds to develop vaccines using novel mRNA technology. Educators adapted to online teaching. Companies retooled their operations, launched new services, and shifted to digital business models practically overnight.

The rapid rise of video-conferencing tools transformed the workplace and accelerated the remote work revolution. Long-standing barriers to telemedicine were swept away, and the technology sector didn’t just survive; it became a vital infrastructure for continuity.

Key takeaway: Innovation wasn’t optional in meeting the Covid-19 criai—it was oxygen. And the systems that encouraged experimentation, rapid iteration, and bold thinking fared better. The lesson is clear: we must nurture innovation not just in emergencies but as a daily discipline.

6. Leadership in Times of Crisis Reveals Character

Every crisis is a test of leadership. COVID-19 revealed which leaders were prepared and which were not. Some communicated clearly, showed empathy, and made smart decisions that saved lives and stabilized communities. Others disappeared, floundered, delayed, denied, or deflected—often with tragic consequences.

Effective crisis leadership wasn’t about knowing all the answers. It was about asking the right questions, adapting quickly, and staying in touch with stakeholders. The best leaders demonstrated transparency, built trust, and showed compassion. The worst fueled division and confusion and stoked fear.

Key Takeaway: Leadership in crises reveals who we really are. The next disruption—whether from climate disaster, cyberattack, nuclear fallout, or global pandemic—won’t wait for us to prepare. Preparedness is a mindset we must cultivate for the times in which we suddenly find ourselves living.

This article originally appeared in Forbes

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Elon Musk’s Leadership Style Will Make or Break DOGE

Elon Musk's Leadership Style Will Make or Break DOGE

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by tech billionaire Elon Musk and businessman Vivek Ramaswami, has the potential to revolutionize how the United States government functions.

As a futurist and innovation expert who’s participated in numerous corporate and government innovation initiatives, I commend this effort to deliver more for less to Americans at a time when belief in government is at a low ebb. However, achieving success in this new endeavor could prove to be as complex as colonizing Mars.

According to research by McKinsey, 70-90% of complex, large-scale corporate and government change initiatives fail to reach their stated goals. Yet, if anyone can pull this off, it’s likely to be outsiders with a proven track record of success at doing difficult things. As I wrote previously in Forbes, Musk has been able to disrupt every industry he’s entered: money transfer with PayPal, renewable energy with SolarCity, electric vehicles and batteries with Tesla, and space entrepreneurship with SpaceX. But these are all for-profit businesses, not government agencies.

Below are five leadership suggestions for making DOGE a moonshot success:

1. Realize this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to serve. According to McKinsey, the biggest reason large-scale initiatives go awry is the failure to set fact-based high aspirations. With DOGE, the stated goals are clear: to dismantle bureaucracy, cut regulations, restructure agencies, and save taxpayers a whopping $2 trillion! My advice to Musk: You can make a lasting impact if you take the high road and adjust your approach. The abrasive leadership style you used to lower costs at Twitter (firing 6,000 employees) will backfire here. DOGE is a unique opportunity to transform an organization that doesn’t belong to you. It belongs to all of us.

2. Do your own thinking, and don’t let others rule you. To succeed, Musk must resist the tendency to “stick it to the bureaucracy” or punish agencies such as the EPA and SEC that prosecuted him in the past. Also, to forget about clearing out the so-called “Deep State,” which doesn’t exist. Everyone is watching to see if Musk will succumb to partisan paradigms or Silicon Valley groupthink, which assumes that technology is the answer to every problem. As someone who researches the habits of leading innovators, I admire the way Musk does voluminous research, challenges conventional thinking, learns from failure, and experiments constantly while taking calculated risks. My advice to Musk: Form your own opinions and make decisions with an open mind, in short, be your own man. Don’t abandon the habits and best practices that got you where you are. Be willing to adjust your leadership style and adapt them to serving the government. If you pull this off, the appreciation and love will be worth it in the end.

3. Seek out innovators in government. Having served as an innovation coach to organizations as varied as the Army Corp of Engineers, DARPA, and VA Hospitals, my experience is that there are talented, dedicated, out-of-the-box-thinkers and doers within our government. The problem is they are not always heard. They may have practical ideas about how to do things better, cheaper, and faster, but there is no incentive to take the initiative for the hard work of innovation. My advice: Musk needs to acknowledge that the federal government does function: air traffic controllers keep planes flying, polluters get punished, Medicare checks go out, warfighters get trained and armed, FEMA workers show up at disasters, and taxes get collected. Instead of denigrating them, figure out ways to inspire and empower them instead. Find ways to lift them up, while challenging them to do better. My advice: make everyone in government a hero. Challenge them to join you in this once-in-a-lifetime endeavor to upgrade and revitalize the federal government.

4. Crowdsource for winning ideas. Idea crowdsourcing is the process of engaging employees, customers, suppliers, or other relevant audiences to contribute ideas to help an organization improve its products, services, or processes. Crowdsourcing ideas and creating a process for selecting and prioritizing those ideas will be critical to DOGE’s success. Outdated rules, like agencies being required to spend all allocated funds by year-end, drive wasteful spending and need changing. Modernizing antiquated data systems will enhance decision-making, accountability, and efficiency. Federal agencies need to be encouraged to identify efficiencies to improve outcomes, not just cut budgets. Federal employees need to be equipped with modern tools and strategies. Private-sector principles to improve citizen experience must be applied. The focus needs to be on shared goals and avoidance of partisanship.

In sum, Elon, this is your defining moment. Not just to modernize government but to inspire it to meet the challenges of the 21st century. Future generations will remember what you accomplished. If only you will lean in to serving America’s citizens in this time of need.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pixabay

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Uber Economy is Killing Innovation, Prosperity and Entrepreneurship

Uber Economy is Killing Innovation, Prosperity and Entrepreneurship

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Today, it seems that almost everyone wants to be the “Uber” of something, and why not? With very little capital investment, the company has completely disrupted the taxicab industry and attained a market value of over $100 billion. In an earlier era, it would have taken decades to have created that kind of impact on a global scale.

Still, we’re not exactly talking about Henry Ford and his Model T here. Or even the Boeing 707 or the IBM 360. Like Uber, those innovations quickly grew to dominance, but also unleashed incredible productivity. Uber, on the other hand, gushed red ink for more than a decade despite $25 billion invested. In 2021 it lost more than $6 billion, the company made progress in 2022 but still lost money, and it was only in 2023 that they finally made a profit.

The truth is that we have a major problem and, while Uber didn’t cause it, the company is emblematic of it. Put simply, a market economy runs on innovation. It is only through consistent gains in productivity that we can create real prosperity. The data and evidence strongly suggests that we have failed to do that for the past 50 years. We need to do better.

The Productivity Paradox Writ Large

The 20th century was, for the most part, an era of unprecedented prosperity. The emergence of electricity and internal combustion kicked off a 50-year productivity boom between 1920 and 1970. Yet after that, gains in productivity mysteriously disappeared even as business investment in computing technology increased, causing economist Robert Solow to observe that “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”

When the internet emerged in the mid-90’s things improved and everybody assumed that the mystery of the productivity paradox had been resolved. However, after 2004 productivity growth disappeared once again. Today, despite the hype surrounding things such as Web 2.0, the mobile Internet and, most recently, artificial intelligence, productivity continues to slump.

Take a closer look at Uber and you can begin to see why. Compare the $25 billion invested in the ride-sharing company with the $5 billion (worth about $45 billion today) IBM invested to build its System 360 in the early 1960s. The System 360 was considered revolutionary, changed computing forever and dominated the industry for decades.

Uber, on the other hand, launched with no hardware or software that was particularly new or revolutionary. In fact, the company used fairly ordinary technology to dis-intermediate relatively low-paid taxi dispatchers. The money invested was largely used to fend off would-be competitors through promoting the service and discounting rides.

Maybe the “productivity paradox” isn’t so mysterious after all.

Two Paths To Profitability

Anybody who’s ever taken an Economics 101 course knows that, under conditions of perfect competition, the forces of supply and demand are supposed to drive markets toward equilibrium. It is at this magical point that prices are high enough to attract supply sufficient to satisfy demand, but not any higher.

Unfortunately for anyone running a business, that equilibrium point is the same point at which economic profit disappears. So to make a profit over the long-term, managers need to alter market dynamics either through limiting competition, often through strategies such as rent seeking and regulatory capture, or by creating new markets through innovation.

As should be clear by now, the digital revolution has been relatively ineffective at creating meaningful innovation. Economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo refer to technologies like Uber, as well as things like automated customer service, as “so-so technologies,” because they displace workers without significantly increasing productivity.

Joseph Schumpeter pointed out long ago, market economies need innovation to fuel prosperity. Without meaningful innovation, managers are left with only strategies that limit innovation, undermine markets and impoverish society, which is what largely seems to have happened over the past few decades.

The Silicon Valley Doomsday Machine

The arrogance of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs seems so outrageous—and so childishly naive— that it is scarcely hard to believe. How could an industry that has produced so little in terms of productivity seem so sure that they’ve been “changing the world” for the better. And how have they made so much money?

The answer lies in something called increasing returns. As it turns out, under certain conditions, namely high up-front investment, negligible marginal costs, network effects and “winner-take-all markets,” the normal laws of economics can be somewhat suspended. In these conditions, it makes sense to pump as much money as possible into an early Amazon, Google or Facebook.

However this seemingly happy story has a few important downsides. First, to a large extent these technologies do not create new markets as much as they disrupt or displace old ones, which is one reason why productivity gains are so meager. Second, the conditions apply to a small set of products, namely software and consumer gadgets, which makes the Silicon Valley model a bad fit for many groundbreaking technologies.

Still, if the perception is that you can make a business viable by pumping a lot of cash into it, you can actually crowd-out a lot of good businesses with bad, albeit well-funded ones. In fact, there is increasing evidence that is exactly what is happening. Rather than an engine of prosperity, Silicon Valley is increasingly looking like a doomsday machine.

Returning To An Innovation Economy

Clearly, we cannot continue “Ubering” ourselves to death. We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption, which produces the kind of prosperity that lifts all boats, rather than outsized profits for a meager few. It is clearly in our power to do that, but we must begin to make better choices.

First, we need to recognize that innovation is something that people do, but instead of investing in human capital, we are actively undermining it. In the US, food insecurity has become an epidemic on college campuses. To make matters worse, the cost of college has created a student debt crisis, essentially condemning our best and brightest to decades of indentured servitude. To add insult to injury, healthcare costs continue to soar. Should we be at all surprised that entrepreneurship is in decline?

Second, we need to rebuild scientific capital. As Vannevar Bush once put it, “There must be a stream of new scientific knowledge to turn the wheels of private and public enterprise.” To take just one example, it is estimated that the $3.8 billion invested in the Human Genome Project generated nearly $800 billion of economic activity as of 2011. Clearly, we need to renew our commitment to basic research.

Finally, we need to rededicate ourselves to free and fair markets. In the United States, by almost every metric imaginable, whether it is industry concentration, occupational licensing, higher prices, lower wages or whatever else you want to look at capitalism has been weakened by poor regulation and oversight. Not surprisingly, innovation has suffered.

Perhaps most importantly, we need to shift our focus from disrupting markets to creating them, from “The Hacker Way”, to tackling grand challenges and from a reductionist approach to an economy based on dignity and well being. Make no mistake: The “Uber Economy” is not the solution, it’s the problem.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pixabay

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