Author Archives: Greg Satell

About Greg Satell

Greg Satell is a popular speaker and consultant. His latest book, Cascades: How to Create a Movement That Drives Transformational Change, is available now. Follow his blog at Digital Tonto or on Twitter @Digital Tonto.

The Breakthrough Lifecycle

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The Breakthrough Lifecycle

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Many experts suspect that the COVID crisis is receding into the background. It is, of course, hard to know for sure. There will continue to be debate and we will still need to have some mitigating measures in place. Still, for the most part, people are back at work, kids are in school, and relatively normal routines have returned.

Generations from now, historians will most likely still question what lessons are to be gleaned from the past few years. Should we strengthen our multilateral institutions or have they become so sclerotic that they need to be dismantled? Is the rise of populist nationalism a harbinger for the future or a flash in the pan?

One thing I don’t expect to be hotly debated, in fact seems perfectly clear even now, is that science saved us. Untold thousands, working mostly anonymously in labs around the world, created a vaccine of astonishing efficacy in record time. It is these types of breakthroughs that change the course of history and, if we can embrace their power, lead us to a better future.

A Seemingly Useless Idea

The MRNA technology that led to the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines have the potential to revolutionize medical science. It can rapidly reprogram the machinery in our cells to manufacture things that can potentially cure or prevent a wide range of diseases, from cancer to malaria, vastly more efficiently than anything we’ve ever seen before.

Yet while revolutionary, it is not at all a new idea. In fact Katalin Karikó, who pioneered the approach, published her first paper on mRNA-based therapy way back in 1990. Unfortunately, she wasn’t able to win grants to fund her work and, by 1995, things came to a head. She was told that she could either direct her energies in a different way, or be demoted.

This type of thing is not unusual. Jim Allison, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on cancer immunotherapy, had a very similar experience when he had his breakthrough, despite having already become a prominent leader in the field. “It was depressing,” he told me. “I knew this discovery could make a difference, but nobody wanted to invest in it.”

The truth is that the next big thing always starts out looking like nothing at all. Things that really change the world always arrive out of context for the simple reason that the world hasn’t changed yet.

Overcoming Resistance

Humans tend to see things in a linear fashion. It is easier for us to imagine a clear line of cause and effect, like a row of dominoes falling into each other, rather than a series of complex interactions and feedback loops. So it shouldn’t be surprising that, in hindsight, breakthrough ideas seem so obvious that only the most dim-witted would deny their utility.

When we think of something like, say, electricity, we often just assume that it was immediately adopted and the world simply changed overnight. After all, who could deny the superiority of an efficient electric motor over a big, noisy steam engine? Yet as the economist Paul David explained in a famous paper, it took 40 years for it to really take hold.

There are a few reasons why this is the case. The first is switching costs. A new technology almost always has to replace something that already does the job. Another problem involves establishing a learning curve. People need to figure out how to unlock the potential of the new technology. To bring about any significant change you first have to overcome resistance.

With electricity, the transition happened slowly. It wouldn’t have made sense to immediately tear down steam-powered factories and replace them. At first, only new plants used the electricity. Yet it wasn’t so much the technology itself, but how people learned to use it to re-imagine how factories functioned that unlocked a revolution in productivity gains.

In the case of mRNA technology, no one had seen a mRNA vaccine work, so many favored more traditional methods. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, for example, used a more traditional DNA-based approach using adenoviruses that was much better understood, rather than take a chance on a newer, unproven approach.

We seem to be at a similar point now with mRNA and other technologies, such as CRISPR. They’ve been proven to be viable, but we really don’t understand them well enough yet to unlock their full potential.

Building Out The Ecosystem

When we look back through history, we see a series of inventions. It seems obvious to us that things like the internal combustion engine and electricity would change the world. Still, as late as 1920, roughly 40 years after they were invented, most American’s lives remained unchanged. For practical purposes, the impact of those two breakthroughs were negligible.

What made the difference wasn’t so much the inventions themselves, but the ecosystems that form around them. For internal combustion engines it took a separate networks to supply oil, to build roads, manufacture cars and ships and so on. For electricity, entire industries based on secondary inventions, such as household appliances and radios, needed to form to fully realize the potential of the underlying technology.

Much of what came after could scarcely have been dreamed of. Who could have seen how transportation would transform retail? Or how communications technologies would revolutionize warfare? Do you really think anybody looked at an IBM mainframe in the 1960s and said, “Gee, this will be a real problem for newspapers some day?”

We can expect something similar to happen with mRNA technology. Once penicillin hit the market in 1946, a “golden age” of antibiotics ensued, resulting in revolutionary new drugs being introduced every year between 1950 and 1970. We’ve seen a similar bonanza in cancer immunotherapies since Jim Allison’s breakthrough.

In marked contrast to Katalin Karikó’s earlier difficulty in winning grants for her work, the floodgates have now opened as pharma companies are now racing to develop mRNA approaches for a myriad of diseases and maladies.

The Paradox Of New Paradigms

The global activist Srdja Popović once told me that when a revolution is successful, it’s difficult to explain the previous order, because it comes to be seen as unbelievable. Just as it’s hard to imagine a world without electricity, internal combustion or antibiotics today, it will be difficult to explain our lives today to future generations.

In much the same way, we cannot understand the future through linear extrapolation. We can, of course, look at today’s breakthroughs in things like artificial intelligence, synthetic biology and quantum computing, but what we don’t see is the second or third order effects, how they will shape societies and how societies will choose to shape them.

Looking at Edison’s lightbulb would tell you nothing about radios, rock music and the counterculture of the 60s, much like taking a ride in Ford’s “Model T” would offer little insight into the suburbs and shopping malls his machine would make possible. Ecosystems are, by definition, chaotic and non-linear.

What is important is that we allow for the unexpected. It was not obvious to anyone that Katalin Karikó could ever get her idea to work, but she shouldn’t have had to risk her career to make a go of it. We’re enormously lucky that she didn’t, as so many others would have, taken an easier path. It is, in the final analysis, that one brave decision that we have to thank for what promises to be brighter days ahead.

All who wander are not lost.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pixabay

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Moments and Movements Are Not the Same Thing

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GUEST POST from Greg Satell

On September 17th, 2011, protesters began to flood into Zuccotti Park in lower Manhattan. Declaring “We are the 99%” they planned to #Occupy Wall Street for as long as it took to make their voice heard. Similar protests soon spread like wildfire across 951 cities in 82 countries. It seemed to be a massive global movement of historic proportions.

But it wasn’t a movement. It was merely a moment. Within a few months, the streets and parks were cleared. The protesters went home and nothing much changed. #Occupy was, to paraphrase Shakespeare, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Certainly, no tangible aim was accomplished.

Failure has costs. Thousands of people for hours a day across several months adds up to billions of dollars worth of man-hours that could have been put to some useful purpose. Make no mistake. Creating positive change in the world takes far more than mobilization. You need a vision and a strategy, guided by values, designed to accomplish clear objectives.

Getting Beyond Grievance

Every change effort starts with a grievance. There’s something that people don’t like and they want it to be different. In a social or political movement that may be a corrupt leader or a glaring injustice. In an organizational context, the problem is usually something like falling sales, unhappy customers, low employee morale or technological disruption.

Whatever the case may be, the first step toward bringing change about is to understand that getting mired in grievance won’t get you anywhere. You can’t just complain about things you don’t like. You need to come up with an affirmative vision for how you would want things to be different and better.

The best place to start is by asking yourself, “if I had the power to change anything, what would it look like?” Martin Luther King Jr.’s vision for the civil rights movement was for a Beloved Community. Bill Gates’s vision for Microsoft was for a “computer on every desk and in every home.” A good vision should be aspirational. It should inspire.

One of the things I found in my research is that successful change leaders don’t try to move from grievance to vision in one step, but rather identify a Keystone Change, which focuses on a clear and tangible goal, includes multiple stakeholders and paves the way for future change, to bridge the gap.

For King, the Keystone Change was voting rights. For Gates it was an easy-to-use operating system. For your vision, it will undoubtedly be something different. The salient point here is that every successful transformation I have come across started out with a Keystone Change, so that’s where you will want to start as well.

Building In Constraints Through A Genome Of Values

Creating a clear vision for change is absolutely essential, but it’s only a first step. You also need to be clear and explicit about your values. While a vision for the future represents possibility, values represent constraints. Values make clear that we not only want things, but we’re also willing to incur certain costs to attain them.

For example, throughout his life, Nelson Mandela was accused of being a Communist, an anarchist, an extremist and worse. Yet when confronted with these accusations, he would always say that no one had to guess what he believed or what he was fighting for, because it was all written down in 1955 in a document called the Freedom Charter.

Importantly, the Freedom Charter imposed constraints on Mandela and his movement. When he rose to power, he couldn’t oppress white Afrikaners, because that would betray all that he’d been fighting for. That gave the movement credibility and power. Occupy, of course, was never clear or explicit about its values and never sought to constrain itself in any way. It’s activists were often seen as undisciplined and vulgar

In a similar vein, when Lou Gerstner set out to transform IBM in the 90s, he vowed that he would shift the company’s values from the “stack of its own proprietary technologies” to its “customers’ stack of business processes.” Yet it was his willingness to forego revenue on every sale to make good on this value is what made people believe in it. If not for that, it’s doubtful IBM would still be in business today.

Make no mistake. Values always cost something. If you are unwilling to bear costs and constraints, it isn’t a value. It’s a platitude. Change is always built on a foundation of shared values and common purpose. If you aren’t able to communicate clearly about what you believe and what you value, you can’t expect others to join you.

Mobilizing People To Influence Institutions

In October 2011, at the height of the #Occupy protests, the civil rights legend and Congressman John Lewis showed up at an #Occupy rally in Atlanta and asked to speak. He was refused. Some attributed the snub to racism among the privileged white protestors. Others faulted Lewis himself, who didn’t understand the complex rules of the rally.

The protester who led the charge to block Lewis, however, described a different motivation. For him, Lewis’s great crime was that he was part of the “two-party system” and therefore unworthy of trust. “Any organization that upholds the legitimacy of the two-party system simply buttresses interests opposed to those of everyday people,” the man said.

This is, of course, total nonsense. Every regime or status quo depends on institutions to support them. That’s why a key part of any transformation strategy is to mobilize people to influence the institutions that can bring change about. One major reason that #Occupy failed was that it mobilized people to do no more than sleep in parks and snarl out epithets.

Now consider Martin Luther King Jr., who was able to bring considerable influence to bear on the US political system, just as Thurgood Marshall and Charles Hamilton Houston did with the US legal system and Nelson Mandela did with international institutions. These men had at least as much reason to be skeptical as any #Occupy protester, but understood that it is institutions that have the power to make change real.

In our corporate work, we find the same principle applies. Would-be changemakers tend to construe institutions too narrowly. If it is an internal initiative, they overlook customers, industry associations, community leaders and other external stakeholders. If it is an externally facing initiative, they often overlook important internal stakeholders that can help.

Preparing For Your Moment

It’s easy to confuse a moment with a movement. A movement involves linking together small, but often disparate groups in the context of shared purpose and shared values. A moment occurs when an event triggers a temporary decrease in resistance to an action or idea that opens up a window of opportunity. Movements require preparation. Moments require little more than luck.

That’s why we see protesters suddenly fill the streets and then, almost as suddenly, dissipate with little or no impact. It’s why some startups catch investors’ imagination and race to billion-dollar unicorn status, only to crash and burn just as fast. Politicians’ fortunes rise and fall, social media stars have their moment in the sun before disappearing into obscurity.

Building a movement requires work. You need to get beyond mere grievances and articulate an affirmative vision. You need to identify and speak to shared values and build on common ground. You need to invite people to join your cause for their own reasons, which may be different from your own. And then you need to focus your efforts on influencing the institutions that can actually make a difference.

So we should never mistake a moment for a movement. However, we can build a movement in anticipation for a moment that we expect will come. Gandhi trained his disciples for ten years before the opportunity for the Salt March came along. King’s efforts failed in Albany, but triumphed in Birmingham under better circumstances. Polish protesters were ill-prepared in 1970, but learned from the mistakes and later brought down an empire.

The crucial point to remember is that moments of opportunity are rare. We need to prepare for them. So that when they happen and fortune smiles on us we are ready. We have everything in place. That’s how radical, transformational change comes about.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pexels

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Profiting From Fear and Mistrust

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Profiting From Fear and Mistrust

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

When I lived and worked in Ukraine, it was commonplace to see men in camouflage fatigues and Uzi’s in the waiting rooms of offices around town. They weren’t there as security, or to rob the place, but to help transfer money between businesses. It was cumbersome and inefficient, but in an atmosphere of mistrust, it was a necessity.

In most countries, we’re still a long way from armed couriers as a daily routine, but according to Edelman’s recent Trust Barometer, we’re headed in that direction. Entitled “Innovation in Peril,” it details an overall collapse of confidence, finding that roughly two thirds believe that journalists, government leaders, and business executives, are “purposely trying to mislead.”

That’s a problem for all of us. Mistrust is corrosive to the norms that help our society run efficiently and the costs are very real. Our lack of trust in government prevents us from making needed investments. Suspicions about law enforcement undermine public safety. Mistrust in the workplace undermines performance. We desperately need to rebuild trust.

The Value Of Trust

Trust isn’t our natural state. Economists have developed a number of models to show how fragile it can be. For example, in a prisoner’s dilemma, two suspects are brought in for questioning. If they both stay true to each other, they get the best collective outcome, but if each follows his or her own self-interest, both will confess and get the worst overall outcome.

Related concepts are the tragedy of the commons, in which everybody has access to a common field to graze their livestock, depleting the resource so that everybody’s herd suffers, and the free rider problem which often occurs with respect to public goods. These situations are known as Nash equilibriums because nobody can change their preference without making themselves worse off.

When you take a moment to think, it’s kind of amazing that we operate with as much trust as we do. Local businesses faithfully serve communities for years, even decades. Corporations spend billions to build brands and governments work to earn legitimacy. That is what allows us to easily transact business throughout the day. When trust collapses, we get Uzis in waiting rooms.

Yet it doesn’t have to be that dramatic. Research by Accenture found that “trust events” cost businesses billions of dollars every year. For example, a consumer-focused company that had a sustainability-oriented publicity event backfire lost an estimated $400 million in future revenues. Another company that was named in a money laundering scandal lost $1 billion.

Profiting From Our Mistrust

Our brains are geared for mistrust in a number of ways. The first is a bias for loss aversion. We will do more to avoid a loss than we will for an equivalent gain. That makes trust hard to build and easy to lose, which is why the “trust events,” like those cited in the Accenture study, are so costly.

Another contributing factor is availability bias, our tendency to overweight easily accessible examples, such as a specific trust event, and ignore vague concepts, like years of good service. Once we accept a belief, our confirmation bias will lead us to seek out information that supports our prior beliefs and reject contrary evidence.

These effects are multiplied by tribal tendencies. We form group identities easily, and groups tend to develop into echo chambers, which amplify common beliefs and minimize contrary information. We also tend to share more actively with people who agree with us and, with little fear of rebuke, we are less likely to check that information for accuracy.

That, essentially, is the economics of disinformation. Fear breeds mistrust, which makes us feel insecure and leads us to seek out people we identify with to reinforce our beliefs. Research suggests media companies, especially social media companies, profit from the passions that the most polarizing information unleash in the form of greater engagement with their platforms.

Facts, Identity and Fear

We tend to think of truth as a simple matter of knowledge and understanding. We see the world as a set number of facts and believe that any disagreements arise from a lack of clarity about what the true facts are. In this view, mistrust can be corrected by better access to good information. Once people are informed, how could there be any disagreement?

Unfortunately, the world doesn’t work that way. In fact, a study at Ohio State found that, when confronted with scientific evidence that conflicted with their views, people would question the objectivity of the science. Another thing to consider is that, as Sam Arbesman explained in The Half-Life of Facts, our ideas about what’s true changes over time.

We can’t rigorously test every proposition, which is why we adopt the views of those around us, a phenomenon that psychologists call social proof. What makes the effect even more insidious, is that the relationship is reciprocal. We internalize the ideas of the tribes we join and then propagate those same ideas to others, intensifying the echo chamber.

Our beliefs are far more than mere acceptance of sets of facts, but become inherently part of our identity. Wars are not fought over ideologies because people disagree about empirical evidence, but because they see their sense of selves under attack. If truth is a force for good, then those who refuse to accept our version of it are, in the most basic sense of the word, evil.

From Victimization To Empowerment Through Purpose

Our ability to trust others is, to a great extent, a function of how we see ourselves and our situation. If we see ourselves as secure and in tune with our environment, it’s relatively easy for us to build bonds of trust. If we feel those around us share our values, it’s easier to feel a shared sense of identity and purpose.

However, if we see our surroundings as hostile, we will take steps to protect ourselves and that, to a great extent, is where we are at today. First the Internet, and then social media have tended to promote and juxtapose the most extreme elements, creating an atmosphere of heightened conflict among tribes, which further undermines our sense of security and trust.

This is what Marshall McLuhan meant when he wrote that the global village would result in a “release of human power and aggressive violence” greater than ever in human history. When we are confronted with ideas and values that are different from our own, it can feel more more like an assault and an affront than a refreshing interaction with the variety of life.

Here Ukraine offers a lesson. Over the past decade it has built a new identity and found a new purpose. Today most Ukrainians, especially the younger generations, feel a stronger affinity for European values than for their post-Soviet past. In fact, they have so internalized their European ambitions that they are willing to risk a war to maintain them.

We have a similar challenge before us. If a common identity is forged from shared values and shared purpose, on what foundation will we build our future? To what common project can we devote our energies? What are our ambitions and how best might we fulfill them? These are the questions that we need to answer if we are ever to rebuild the bonds of trust.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pixabay

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3 Strategies All Changemakers Should Know

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3 Strategies All Changemakers Should Know

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

All too often, we see change as a communication exercise. We think that if people really understood our idea, they would embrace it. In this view, bringing about change is really just a matter of messaging. Find the right slogan and deliver it in the right way, and you will ignite the passions required to drive transformation.

Nothing can be further from the truth. If a change is important and has real potential for impact, there will always be some people who won’t like it and they will work to undermine it in ways that are dishonest, underhanded, and deceptive. Change rarely fails because people don’t understand it. Most often it is actively sabotaged.

A more elegant slogan won’t save you. What you need is a sound strategy to overcome resistance to change. Fortunately, we know from social and political movements that radical, transformational change is possible and, as I explained in Cascades, their principles can be highly effective in organizations. Here are three strategies that you should know.

1. Start With A Majority

Change starts with a belief. If people believe that a change is good, they will be likely to adopt it. If they believe it’s bad, it’s going to be tough to convince them otherwise especially, as is often the case, their beliefs are rooted in their identity and sense of self. In fact, research has shown when we are presented with facts contrary to our beliefs, we tend to question the evidence rather than our own preconceived notions.

This raises an important question: How do we come by our beliefs? As it turns out, the best indicator of not only our beliefs, but our actions, habits and even some aspects of our health, is the people around us and studies suggest that the effect extends out to even third degree relationships. So not only our friends, but the friends of our friend’s friends influence us.

The truth is that majorities don’t just rule, they also influence. That’s why when we seek to bring about change, it’s important to start with a majority. The secret is that you get to choose where you start. It might be a small, local majority of, say, three people in a room of five. As long as supporters outnumber detractors, change can move forward.

You can always expand a majority out, but as soon as you are in the minority, you will feel immediate pushback. When that happens, you can lose momentum and send the entire initiative off the rails. In many cases, you will never get the momentum back and your hopes for change will end before they really start.

There’s an unfortunate aspect of human nature that drives us to want to convince skeptics. Resist it and focus on empowering your supporters.

2. Prepare For A Trigger

It’s easy to confuse a moment with a movement. A movement links together small, but often disparate, groups in the context of shared purpose and shared values. A moment occurs when an event triggers a temporary decrease in resistance and opens up a window of opportunity. Movements require preparation. Moments often emerge on their own.

What’s crucial for changemakers to grasp is that a trigger eventually emerges that creates a moment. It’s rare that we can predict exactly when it’s going to happen, but it’s not too hard to see that one will come eventually and prepare for it. Political revolutions have leveraged this for decades, focusing on particular stress points in which a trigger is likely to emerge.

For example, the color revolutions in Eastern Europe targeted elections that they knew were likely to be falsified. After Martin Luther King Jr.’s failed Albany campaign, he moved on to Birmingham, because he knew that Bull Connor, the Commissioner of Public Safety, was a hothead and likely to employ the type of brutal tactics that would trigger a moment.

In much the same way, the Covid pandemic triggered digital transformation in many organizations. Economic downturns trigger efficiency measures. When a competitor comes out with a hit product, it tends to trigger enthusiasm for innovation. We don’t know when these things are going to happen, but we know that they are likely to happen eventually.

One reason why so many change efforts have failed in recent years is that the movements were built in response to a moment. Once the moment comes, it’s too late. You build your movement to prepare for a trigger, so that once it comes you can make the most of it.

3. Leverage Your Opposition

Change thrives on passion. The status quo always has inertia on its side and never yields its power gracefully. That’s why so many would-be changemakers start out by attacking their opposition, seeking to meet them head on, expose their misconceptions and show the value of doing things differently.

This is almost always a mistake. Directly engaging with staunch opposition is unlikely to achieve anything other than exhausting and frustrating you. However, while you shouldn’t directly engage your fiercest critics, you obviously can’t act like they don’t exist. On the contrary, you need to learn to love your haters.

In fact by listening to people who hate your idea you can identify early flaws, which gives you the opportunity to fix them before they can be used against you in any serious way. They can also help you to identify shared values. For example, the LGBTQ movement prevailed by emphasizing their commitment to stable marriages and happy families, exactly the ideas that were used against them for decades.

Perhaps most importantly, you can leverage your opposition to your advantage. If left to their own devices, they will often overreach and send people your way. Bull Connor’s brutality, which he was all too eager to display for the TV cameras, furthered the cause of civil rights. In the color revolutions, the activist group Otpor found a way to even use arrests to weaken the regime and empower the revolution..

The truth is that to bring about real change you need to attract, rather than overpower. Being seen fighting the opposition may fire up your most active supporters, but it won’t bring anyone to your side. However, if the enemies of change see you gaining traction, invariably they will lash out, overreach and send people your way.

Applying Strength To Weakness

In the final analysis, the reason that most would-be revolutionaries fail is that they assume the righteousness of their cause will save them. It will not. Injustice, inequity and ineffectiveness can thrive for decades and even centuries, far surpassing a human lifespan. If you think that your idea will prevail simply because you believe in it you will be sorely disappointed.

Tough, important battles can only be won with good strategy and tactics, which is why successful change agents learn how to adopt the principle of Schwerpunkt. The idea is that instead of trying to defeat your enemy with overwhelming force generally, you want to deliver overwhelming force and win a decisive victory at a particular point of attack.

Yet Schwerpunkt is a dynamic, not a static concept. You have to constantly innovate your approach as your opposition adapts to whatever success you may achieve. For example, the civil rights movement had its first successes with boycotts, but moved on to sit-ins, “Freedom Rides,” community actions and eventually, mass marches.

Starting with a majority, preparing for a trigger and leveraging your opposition are only three ways you can apply strength to weakness. The key to success isn’t any particular tactic, leader or slogan but strategic flexibility. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what most change efforts lack. All too often they get caught up in a strategy and double down, because it feels good to believe in something, even if it’s failure.

Change, like many things, largely boils down to strategy and execution. It’s not a simple matter of belief or passion. You need to learn how to operate effectively, by studying those who succeeded and those who failed, building on your successes, dusting yourself off after the inevitable setbacks, correcting mistakes and returning to fight with renewed vigor.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pixabay

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Purpose Matters Because …

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GUEST POST from Greg Satell

When the Business Roundtable issued a statement in 2019 that discarded the old notion that the sole purpose of a business is to provide value to shareholders, many were dismayed. Some thought it was just another example of misguided altruism by “elites.” Others saw it as a cynical and disingenuous ploy.

Yet the primacy of shareholder value is hardly a well-established economic principle. The concept does not appear even once in Adam Smith’s seminal treatise, The Wealth of Nations. In fact, it is a relatively recent idea and when the economist Milton Friedman first proposed it in 1970, it was considered radical, even subversive, certainly not to be taken as gospel.

It has also been tremendously unsuccessful. Since Friedman’s essay we have become less productive, not more. One reason for the poor results is that Friedman and others like him failed to recognize that our economy is made up of people, not inanimate pieces of data that make up economic charts, and these people search for meaning and purpose in their lives.

Failed Cartesians

Often regarded as the father of modern philosophy, Rene Descartes was obsessed with human fallibility. Cursed with imperfect senses and emotions that can warp logic, he sought to build a new intellectual foundation based on cool, rational thought. “I think, therefore I am,” he wrote, proving that at least one thing could be known without referring to the use of the senses.

Descartes’ ideas led to the Rationalist school of philosophy as others tried to build on his work. The idea that, through pure reason, we could see truths with greater clarity held enormous attraction for intellectual giants such as Gottfried Leibniz and Baruch Spinoza. Unfortunately, other than in the field of mathematics, little was achieved.

That didn’t stop others from trying though. In the early 20th century, the Vienna Circle arose in response to the work of Ludwig Wittgenstein and others in order to create a logical system to guide human affairs. Wittgenstein himself would later disown it and Gödel’s incompleteness theorems would eventually expose the whole exercise as a failure.

Undeterred by centuries of failure, business consultants have tried to sell the same idea to executives. Yet despite fancy names like scientific management, financial engineering and six sigma, these didn’t fare any better. One study found that of 58 large companies that announced Six Sigma programs, 91 percent trailed the S&P 500 in stock performance.

Still, many remain undeterred. The idea of an infallible technocracy is just too tempting for many to resist.

The End Of History And The Washington Consensus

In 1992, Francis Fukuyama published The End of History to great acclaim. The Cold War had ended and capitalism was triumphant. Communism was shown to be a corrupt system bereft of any real legitimacy. It seemed that, as many philosophers had predicted, we had reached an end point in which human sociocultural evolution was complete.

A new ideology took hold, often referred to as the “Washington Consensus,” that preached fiscal discipline, free trade, privatization and deregulation. The world was going to be remade in capitalism’s image. Countries that hit hard times would be offered aid from multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank in return for favored policy reforms.

Many pointed out that international bureaucrats were mandating policies for developing nations that citizens in their own countries would never accept. Strict austerity programs led to human costs that were both significant and real. In a sense, the Soviet error was being repeated. Ideology was being put before people.

Yet Fukuyama’s message had been misunderstood. His book was not meant as a prophecy, but as a warning. He pointed to the ancient Greek concept of thymos, a spirited blend of dignity and pride, to caution against rationalist explanations for human behavior. Given a choice between a well trod path and one less certain, he predicted that many will “set their eyes on a new and more distant journey.”

The Silicon Valley Myth

I was working on Wall Street in 1995 when the Netscape IPO hit like a bombshell. It was the first big Internet stock and, although originally priced at $14 per share, it opened at double that amount and quickly zoomed to $75. By the end of the day, it had settled back at $58.25 and, just like that, a tiny company with no profits was worth $2.9 billion.

It seemed crazy, but economists soon explained that certain conditions, such as negligible marginal costs and network effects, would lead to “winner take all markets” and increasing returns to investment. Venture capitalists who bet on this logic would, in many cases, become rich beyond their wildest dreams.

The conditions for increasing returns, however, only apply to a narrow swath of businesses, mostly limited to software and electronic gadgets. Nevertheless, entrepreneurs and their investors became convinced that they could apply the Silicon Valley model anywhere, leading to high profile failures like WeWork and Theranos.

That’s the Silicon Valley myth, that the rational logic of code can be applied to any problem. It’s the same fantasy that has been repeated throughout history, handed from Cartesians to logical positivists to “scientific” managers and now to the software engineers, puffed up with stock options who can’t seem to understand why everyone else doesn’t “get it.”

The costs have been substantial. Evidence suggests that the billions wantonly plowed into massive failures are crowding out real businesses. Productivity has been depressed for half a century. The Facebook papers revealed a culture that has lost its way, so single-mindedly focused on optimizing engagement it lost sight of the humanity it was supposed to engage.

Identity, Dignity And Purpose

If you believe in a rational Cartesian universe, a business is little more than a set of transactions. The nature of the firm, in this view, is simply to minimize transaction costs and skilled managers should focus on maximizing bargaining power among stakeholders in order to build a sustainable competitive advantage. Yet the world doesn’t actually work that way.

Consider the ultimatum game. One player is given a dollar and needs to propose how to split it with another player. If it is accepted, both players get the agreed upon shares. If it is not accepted, neither player gets anything. If the world was completely rational, the second player would accept even a single penny. After all, a penny is better than nothing.

Yet decades of experiments across different cultures show that most people do not accept a penny. In fact, offers of less than 30 cents are routinely rejected as unfair. It offends people’s dignity and sense of self. For many of the same reasons, there is increasing evidence that financial targets don’t motivate employees. No one wants to be a cog in someone else’s wheel.

That is the value of purpose. It bolsters, rather than undermines, our identity. When people feel that they are part of a common project, they feel a sense of ownership, that they are ends in themselves rather than means to an end. It uplifts, rather than demeans, us. It fortifies, rather than undermines, our spirit.

What separates great leaders from mediocre managers is that the leaders do more than calculate, they provide meaning to an endeavor that makes it more than merely a common enterprise. It becomes a collective mission.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Unsplash

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Uber Economy is Killing Innovation, Prosperity and Entrepreneurship

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Uber Economy is Killing Innovation, Prosperity and Entrepreneurship

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Today, it seems that almost everyone wants to be the “Uber” of something, and why not? With very little capital investment, the company has completely disrupted the taxicab industry and attained a market value of over $100 billion. In an earlier era, it would have taken decades to have created that kind of impact on a global scale.

Still, we’re not exactly talking about Henry Ford and his Model T here. Or even the Boeing 707 or the IBM 360. Like Uber, those innovations quickly grew to dominance, but also unleashed incredible productivity. Uber, on the other hand, gushed red ink for more than a decade despite $25 billion invested. In 2021 it lost more than $6 billion, the company made progress in 2022 but still lost money, and it was only in 2023 that they finally made a profit.

The truth is that we have a major problem and, while Uber didn’t cause it, the company is emblematic of it. Put simply, a market economy runs on innovation. It is only through consistent gains in productivity that we can create real prosperity. The data and evidence strongly suggests that we have failed to do that for the past 50 years. We need to do better.

The Productivity Paradox Writ Large

The 20th century was, for the most part, an era of unprecedented prosperity. The emergence of electricity and internal combustion kicked off a 50-year productivity boom between 1920 and 1970. Yet after that, gains in productivity mysteriously disappeared even as business investment in computing technology increased, causing economist Robert Solow to observe that “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”

When the internet emerged in the mid-90’s things improved and everybody assumed that the mystery of the productivity paradox had been resolved. However, after 2004 productivity growth disappeared once again. Today, despite the hype surrounding things such as Web 2.0, the mobile Internet and, most recently, artificial intelligence, productivity continues to slump.

Take a closer look at Uber and you can begin to see why. Compare the $25 billion invested in the ride-sharing company with the $5 billion (worth about $45 billion today) IBM invested to build its System 360 in the early 1960s. The System 360 was considered revolutionary, changed computing forever and dominated the industry for decades.

Uber, on the other hand, launched with no hardware or software that was particularly new or revolutionary. In fact, the company used fairly ordinary technology to dis-intermediate relatively low-paid taxi dispatchers. The money invested was largely used to fend off would-be competitors through promoting the service and discounting rides.

Maybe the “productivity paradox” isn’t so mysterious after all.

Two Paths To Profitability

Anybody who’s ever taken an Economics 101 course knows that, under conditions of perfect competition, the forces of supply and demand are supposed to drive markets toward equilibrium. It is at this magical point that prices are high enough to attract supply sufficient to satisfy demand, but not any higher.

Unfortunately for anyone running a business, that equilibrium point is the same point at which economic profit disappears. So to make a profit over the long-term, managers need to alter market dynamics either through limiting competition, often through strategies such as rent seeking and regulatory capture, or by creating new markets through innovation.

As should be clear by now, the digital revolution has been relatively ineffective at creating meaningful innovation. Economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo refer to technologies like Uber, as well as things like automated customer service, as “so-so technologies,” because they displace workers without significantly increasing productivity.

Joseph Schumpeter pointed out long ago, market economies need innovation to fuel prosperity. Without meaningful innovation, managers are left with only strategies that limit innovation, undermine markets and impoverish society, which is what largely seems to have happened over the past few decades.

The Silicon Valley Doomsday Machine

The arrogance of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs seems so outrageous—and so childishly naive— that it is scarcely hard to believe. How could an industry that has produced so little in terms of productivity seem so sure that they’ve been “changing the world” for the better. And how have they made so much money?

The answer lies in something called increasing returns. As it turns out, under certain conditions, namely high up-front investment, negligible marginal costs, network effects and “winner-take-all markets,” the normal laws of economics can be somewhat suspended. In these conditions, it makes sense to pump as much money as possible into an early Amazon, Google or Facebook.

However this seemingly happy story has a few important downsides. First, to a large extent these technologies do not create new markets as much as they disrupt or displace old ones, which is one reason why productivity gains are so meager. Second, the conditions apply to a small set of products, namely software and consumer gadgets, which makes the Silicon Valley model a bad fit for many groundbreaking technologies.

Still, if the perception is that you can make a business viable by pumping a lot of cash into it, you can actually crowd-out a lot of good businesses with bad, albeit well-funded ones. In fact, there is increasing evidence that is exactly what is happening. Rather than an engine of prosperity, Silicon Valley is increasingly looking like a doomsday machine.

Returning To An Innovation Economy

Clearly, we cannot continue “Ubering” ourselves to death. We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption, which produces the kind of prosperity that lifts all boats, rather than outsized profits for a meager few. It is clearly in our power to do that, but we must begin to make better choices.

First, we need to recognize that innovation is something that people do, but instead of investing in human capital, we are actively undermining it. In the US, food insecurity has become an epidemic on college campuses. To make matters worse, the cost of college has created a student debt crisis, essentially condemning our best and brightest to decades of indentured servitude. To add insult to injury, healthcare costs continue to soar. Should we be at all surprised that entrepreneurship is in decline?

Second, we need to rebuild scientific capital. As Vannevar Bush once put it, “There must be a stream of new scientific knowledge to turn the wheels of private and public enterprise.” To take just one example, it is estimated that the $3.8 billion invested in the Human Genome Project generated nearly $800 billion of economic activity as of 2011. Clearly, we need to renew our commitment to basic research.

Finally, we need to rededicate ourselves to free and fair markets. In the United States, by almost every metric imaginable, whether it is industry concentration, occupational licensing, higher prices, lower wages or whatever else you want to look at capitalism has been weakened by poor regulation and oversight. Not surprisingly, innovation has suffered.

Perhaps most importantly, we need to shift our focus from disrupting markets to creating them, from “The Hacker Way”, to tackling grand challenges and from a reductionist approach to an economy based on dignity and well being. Make no mistake: The “Uber Economy” is not the solution, it’s the problem.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pixabay

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Surviving Change

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Surviving Change

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

The Greek philosopher Heraclitus observed that “There is nothing permanent except change” and events over the past few thousand years would seem to prove him right. Yet while change may endure, the rate of change fluctuates over time. Throughout history, forces tend to cascade and converge on particular points.

By all indications, we are in such a period now. We are undergoing four major shifts in technology, resources, migration and demography that will be transformative. Clearly, these shifts will create significant opportunities, but also great peril. The last time we saw this much change afoot was during the 1920s and that didn’t end well.

Yet history is not destiny. We’re entering a new era of innovation in which our ability to solve problems will be unprecedented and can shape our path by making wise choices. Still, as we have seen with the Covid pandemic, the toughest challenges we will face will have had less to do with devising solutions than with changing behaviors and conquering ourselves.

Building A Shared Understanding Of The Problems We Need To Solve

The first step toward solving a problem is acknowledging that there is one. Even before Covid skeptics came into vogue, there was no shortage of pundits who denied climate change. For years, many considered Alan Greenspan to possess sage-like wisdom when he asserted that markets would self-correct. In the end, even he would admit that he was gravely mistaken.

The truth is that we live in a world of the visceral abstract, where strange theories govern much of our existence. People can debate the “big bang,” deny Darwin’s theory of natural selection or even deride these ideas as “lies straight from the pit of hell.” Many agreed when Senator Marco Rubio asserted that these things have nothing to do with our everyday lives.

Still, the reality is that modern existence depends on abstract theories almost every second of the day. Einstein’s theories may seem strange, but if GPS satellites aren’t calibrated to take them into account, we’re going to have a hard time getting where we want to go. In much the same way the coronavirus doesn’t care what we think about Darwin, if it is allowed to replicate it will mutate and new, more deadly variants are likely to arise.

History shows that building a consensus to confront shared challenges is something that is firmly within our capability. The non-proliferation agenda of the 1950s led to concrete achievements such as the Partial Test Ban Treaty. When advances in gene therapy made the potential for danger clear, the Berg Letter called for a moratorium on the riskiest experiments until the dangers were better understood. These norms have been respected for decades.

Discovering Novel Solutions

Identifying and defining our challenges is just a first step. As Bill Gates pointed out, we still don’t know how to solve the climate crisis. Despite all the happy talk about technological advancement, productivity growth remains depressed. We’ve seen a global rise in populist authoritarianism and our inability to solve problems has surely contributed.

Put simply, we do not know how to overcome all of the challenges we face today. We need to innovate. However, innovation is never a single event, but a process of discovery, engineering and transformation. We can’t simply hope to adapt and overcome when a crisis hits, we need to innovate for the long-term.

Consider our response to the Covid crisis. Yes, the pandemic caught us off-guard and we should have been better prepared. But our most effective response wasn’t any of the emergency measures, but a three-decade effort that resulted in the development of mRNA vaccines. Even that was nearly killed in its cradle and surely would have been if it had not been for the dedication and perseverance of a young researcher named Katalin Karikó.

An emerging model taking hold is collaboration between government, academia and private industry. For example, JCESR is helping to create next generation technologies in energy storage, the Partnership on AI is helping to map the future for cognitive technologies and the Manufacturing USA Institutes, bring together diverse stakeholders to drive advancement.

Perhaps most of all, we need to start taking a more biological view of technology. We can no longer expect advancement to progress in an organized, linear way. We need to think less like engineers building a machine and more like gardeners who grow ecosystems to nurture new possibilities that we can’t yet imagine, but are lying beneath the surface.

Driving Adoption And Scaling Change

If there’s anything we’ve learned during the Covid pandemic is that developing a viable solution isn’t enough. Early measures, such as masking and social distancing, were met with disdain. The development of effective vaccines in record time was something of a miracle. Still, it was met with derision rather than gratitude in many communities.

This is not a new phenomenon. Good ideas fail all the time. From famous cases like that of Ignaz Semmelweis and William Coley to the great multitudes whose names are lost to history, any time a new idea threatens the status quo there will always be some that will seek to undermine it and they will do it in ways that are dishonest, underhanded and deceptive. If change is ever to prevail, we need to learn to anticipate and overcome resistance.

The good news is that it only takes a minority to embrace change in order for it to prevail. Everett Rogers found that it took only 10%-20% of system members to adopt an innovation for rapid adoption to follow. An analysis of over 300 political revolutions estimated that 3.5% active participation was enough. Other research suggests that the tipping point is 25% in an organization.

What we need is not more catchy slogans, divisive rhetoric or even charismatic leaders, but to empower movements made up of small groups, loosely connected but united by a shared purpose. My friend Srdja Popović provides great guides for social and political revolutionaries in both his book and his organization’s website. I have adapted many of these ideas for corporate and organizational contexts in Cascades.

Perhaps most importantly, as I recently pointed out in Harvard Business Review, is that transformation is fundamentally distinct from other stages of innovation. Coming up with a new idea or solution takes very different skills—and often different people—than driving adoption and scale.

Building A Bridge Through Shared Identity

Marshal McLuhan, one of the most influential thinkers of the 20th century, described media as “extensions of man” and predicted that electronic media would eventually lead to a global village. Communities, he predicted, would no longer be tied to a single, isolated physical space but connect and interact with others on a world stage.

What often goes untold is that McLuhan did not see the global village as a peaceful place. In fact, he predicted it would lead to a new form of tribalism and result in a “release of human power and aggressive violence” greater than ever in human history, as long separated —and emotionally charged— cultural norms would constantly intermingle, clash and explode.

Today, what we most need to grapple with is the dystopia that McLuhan foresaw and described so eloquently and accurately. People do not vehemently refute science, trash Darwin, deny climate change or oppose life-saving vaccines because they have undergone some rational deductive process, but because it offends their identity and sense of self. That, more than anything else, is why change fails.

Yet as Francis Fukuyama pointed out in his recent book, our identities are not fixed, but develop and change over time. We can seek to create a larger sense of self through building communities rooted in shared values. What’s missing in our public discourse today isn’t more or better information. What we lack is a shared sense of mission and purpose.

That is the challenge before us. It is not enough to devise solutions to the problems we face, although that in itself will require us to apply the best of our energies and skills. We will also have to learn to survive victory by overcoming the inevitable strife that change leaves in its wake.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pexels

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The Reasons History Converges and Cascades

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The Reasons History Converges and Cascades

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Throughout history there have been certain times and places that have given rise to phenomenal intellectual activity. The Vienna Circle and Cambridge’s Bloomsbury Group in the early 20th century are certainly examples, as is the Golden Age of Russian Literature in the mid-19th century and the post-war existentialist movement in Paris.

In a certain sense, these seem random, but they aren’t really. In each case, we can see undercurrents of politics, economics and other forces that gave rise to tensions people were trying to resolve. Great thinkers would explore, meet and influence each other, creating new directions and possibilities.

Yet it isn’t only intellectual life that converges in this way. History has a way of assembling forces around certain points of time and space, when long-standing trends intersect and give rise to new things. That’s why we study past events and learn about the lives of great personages long gone, so that we can hope to proactively recognize these forces and adapt.

1948: The Birth Of The Post-War Era

1948 was a pivotal year in many ways. Harry Truman was elected in a surprise upset over Thomas Dewey. Gandhi was assassinated in India. In South Africa, the white supremacist Nationalist party took power, making way for a half-century of Apartheid. The communists took power in Czechoslovakia and the Soviets sealed off Berlin. The western allies responded with a massive airlift, the likes of which the world had never seen.

Yet what probably would have more lasting effects than anything else that year didn’t involve great powers, armies or even political parties. In fact, the most consequential events that year hardly made the newspapers and most people probably weren’t even aware of them. It was in 1948 that two breakthrough innovations at Bell Labs ushered in the digital age.

The first was the transistor, invented by John Bardeen, William Shockley and Walter Brattain. Up until that time, computers used vacuum tubes, which were big, clunky, slow and tended to burn out. Transistors made it possible to make computers exponentially faster and more reliable. They also made way for the integrated circuits we still use today.

The second breakthrough, Claude Shannon’s creation of information theory, was less obvious, but no less important. The basic idea was that information can be broken down into quantifiable entities he called binary digits (or bits for short). It was information theory, along with Shannon’s earlier work that showed how Boolean algebra could be transformed through mechanical means into logic gates, that made the information age possible.

When I spoke to Fred Brooks, who led the development of IBM’s legendary System 360 that would dominate computing for a generation, he explained how both innovations proved pivotal to his work. Of course, it was the transistor that made the IBM 360 possible, but he also told me that it was his decision to switch from a 6-bit byte to an 8-bit byte, which enabled the use of lowercase letters, that helped make it transformative.

1968 – A Historically Tumultuous Year

While 1948 is remembered as a year of great events, 1946 is remembered for very different reasons. With armistices firmly in place in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters, soldiers coming home from war started settling down and making love. With the inevitable result that came in the years that followed, the Baby Boom generation was born.

As the horrors of war receded and a new era of prosperity emerged, the Boomers began to see things very differently than previous generations. They would question authority, challenging old values and ways of doing things. Many began to advocate for gender and racial equality. Unwilling to take the world as it was, they sought to remake it in their own image.

Tensions simmered throughout the 60s, but in 1968 they would combine and explode. The year started with the Prague Spring, when a number of modest reforms in Czechoslovakia, intended to bring about “Socialism with a human face,” were met by a brutal Soviet crackdown. A few months later, Polish authorities got the message and crushed internal protests advocating for similar reforms.

During the American spring of that year Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy were both assassinated. The summer brought, if anything, greater tumult. Bloody clashes between police and demonstrators at the Democratic National Convention discredited the party amongst many and paved the way for the election of Richard Nixon. Tommie Smith and John Carlos would raise their hands in a black power salute on the Olympic Podium.

Perhaps most of all, 1968 represented a handing of the baton. The 20-somethings of the 1960s would become 30-somethings of the 1970s. In the 1980s, they voted for Reagan in droves, and would shift how the the United States saw and governed itself as well as its place in the world.

1989 – Berlin Wall and World Wide Web

In November 1989, there were two watershed events that would fundamentally change how the world worked. The fall of the Berlin Wall would end the Cold War and open up markets across the world. That very same month, Tim Berners-Lee would create the World Wide Web and usher in a new technological era of networked computing.

Like in 1948 and 1968, the forces leading up to these events had been building for some time. The Polish Solidarity movement, which had been active since 1980, united activists from labor and the intelligentsia. It showed that the Soviets could be successfully defied. As the price of oil dropped throughout the 1980s, the Eastern Bloc became increasingly untenable.

In a similar way, the development of the World Wide Web had been brewing for decades. The US government had been building out ARPANET and computer scientists had been developing hypertext since the 1960s. All of the technology was in place in 1989 and Berners-Lee was able to create what became the World Wide Web in less than a month.

1989 would mark an inflection point in which the world would shift from hierarchies to networks and the global village which Marshall McLuhan had envisioned came into being. Much like he predicted, however, this village was not a friendly place, but would result in a “release of human power and aggressive violence” from which we are still reeling.

The Power Of Cascades

In my book Cascades, I explained how small groups, loosely connected but united by a shared purpose drive transformational change. It happens gradually, almost imperceptibly, at first. Connections accumulate under the surface, barely noticed, as small groups slowly begin to link together and congeal into a network. Eventually things hit a tipping point.

It’s not just people that are networked though, events are as well. There are always unseen connections between the forces of economics, technology, culture, politics and many other things. Much like social and political movements, the effects are almost impossible to detect at first, but can accelerate in nonlinear ways that defy the prediction of experts.

Yet that doesn’t have to happen. In 1948 we were able to create a new world order that ushered in an era of peace and prosperity unequalled in human history. The events of 1968 and 1989 also helped to bring about enormous progress. The difference between those epochs wasn’t so much due to any underlying forces, but the choices that were made.

Every generation faces great challenges. Some are remembered for their achievements, others for their tragedies. Like earlier generations, we have important choices to make. We should endeavor to choose wisely.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pexels

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The Power of Cultural Competence in Leadership

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The Power of Cultural Competence in Leadership

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

When I first moved to Kyiv about 20 years ago, I met my friend Pavlo, who is from Belarus. Eventually our talk turned to that country’s leader, Alexander Lukashenko, and an incident in which he turned off the utilities at the US Ambassador’s residence, as well as those of other diplomats. It seemed totally outlandish and crazy to me.

“But he won,” Pavlo countered. I was incredulous, until he explained. “Lukashenko knows he’s a bastard and that the world will never accept him. In that situation all you can win is your freedom and that’s what he won.” It was a mode of thinking so outrageous and foreign to me that I could scarcely believe it.

Yet it opened my eyes and made me a more effective operator. We tend to think of empathy as an act of generosity, but it’s far more than that. Learning how to internalize diverse viewpoints is a skill we should learn not only because it helps make others more comfortable, but because it empowers us to successfully navigate an often complex and difficult world.

Shared Identity And Dominant Culture

We naturally tend to form groups based on identity. For example, in a study of adults that were randomly assigned to “leopards” and “tigers,” fMRI studies noted hostility to outgroup members. Similar results were found in a study involving five year-old children and even in infants. So to a certain extent, tribalism is unavoidable.

Evolutionary psychologists attribute this tendency to kin selection. Essentially, groups favor those who are most like them are more likely to see their own genes passed on. As Richard Dawkins famously pointed out, what we traditionally consider altruism can also be seen as selfish genes conniving to perpetuate themselves.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that organizational and institutional settings sustain our penchant for tribalism. Managers will tend to hire people who think and act in familiar ways. Those who reflect the preferences of the higher-ups will be more likely to get promoted and, in turn, recruit people like themselves. This all leads to a level of homogeneity that provides comfort and confidence.

We rarely welcome someone who threatens our sense of self. So those outside the dominant culture are encouraged to conform and are often punished when they don’t. They are less often invited to join in routine office socializing and promotions are less likely to come their way. When things go poorly, it’s much easier to blame the odd duck than the trusted insider.

How Success Leads To Failure

In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, author Thomas Kuhn describes how paradigms have a life cycle. They begin as an insight that succeeds in helping to solve a certain class of problems. As their usefulness grows, they rise to dominance and they are rarely questioned or scrutinized anymore. People use them almost reflexively.

Yet over time certain anomalies arise in which the paradigm doesn’t quite fit. For example, in the 1970s and 80s, the minicomputer industry in Boston reigned supreme. Yes, there were some small startup firms out in California, but they were no match for giants like DEC, Data General and Apollo Computer. The California firms were gaining traction, but weren’t considered threats.

Unfortunately for the Boston firms, paradigms were shifting in a way that was extremely disadvantageous to them. They had built strong, dominant cultures that could execute plans efficiently, but weren’t sensitive to outside information. The Silicon Valley firms, which were more diverse and interconnected, were much more able to adapt to changing market realities.

The truth is that the next big thing always starts out looking like nothing at all. That’s why we so often miss it. If it was obvious, everyone would know about it and it wouldn’t surprise us. That’s why it’s so often those odd ducks, the anomalies that don’t quite fit with the dominant culture, that end up disrupting industries.

Acknowledging Difference

Organizations crave efficiency. It’s easy to measure, evaluate and compensate for. That’s why managers tend to favor cohesive cultures. If you hire and promote likeminded people they will tend to be able to achieve consensus quickly without much deliberation or debate, and move quickly to action.

At the same time, inserting diversity stirs things up and makes people uneasy. For example, in a 2003 study involving 242 members of sororities and fraternities at Northwestern University, groups of students were asked to solve a murder mystery. The more homogenous teams felt more comfortable and confident, but were also much more likely to be wrong.

Real world data suggests that these results are the rule, rather than the exception. A McKinsey report that covered 366 public companies in a variety of countries and industries found that groups that were more ethnically and gender diverse performed significantly better than others. Many other studies have shown similar results

What’s crucial to grasp is that diverse teams don’t perform better in spite of discomfort, but because of it. When people expect people to think like them, they look to build an easy consensus. However, when they expect a range of opinions and perspectives, they need to entertain more possibilities and scrutinize information more skeptically.

That’s why it’s so important to acknowledge differences. If we see the world as homogeneous, we are more likely to see dissenting opinions as hostile challenges instead of new possibilities to be explored. It is through acknowledging diverse viewpoints that we can best catalyze the kind of creativity and innovation that helps solve complex and important problems.

Building Shared Identity Through Shared Purpose

Living as a foreigner for 15 years forced me to acknowledge viewpoints very different from my own. Many seemed strange to me, some I found morally questionable, but all forced me to grow. Perhaps even more importantly, I made friends like Pavlo, all of whom helped shape me and how I perceive things.

Our identity and sense of self drives a lot of what we see and do, yet we rarely examine these things because we spend most of our time with people who are a lot like us, who live in similar places and experience similar things. That’s why our innate perceptions and beliefs seem normal and those of others strange, because our social networks shape us that way.

The purpose of an education is to help us see beyond our own experience, but that is in no way a passive skill. We need to continually renew it. Diversity only has value if we appreciate difference; are willing to explore and learn from it. It is only then that we can glean new insights and apply them to some useful endeavor

It is at this nexus of identity and purpose that creativity and innovation reside, because when we learn to collaborate with others who possess knowledge, skills and perspectives that we don’t, new possibilities emerge. Make no mistake, however, breakthroughs are never truly serendipitous or random, but the product of a prepared mind.

And you prepare your mind through building cultural competence.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pexels

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Don’t Listen to These Three Change Consultant Recommendations

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Don't Listen to These Three Change Consultant Recommendations

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

The practice of change management is a relatively young discipline. It got its start in 1983, when a McKinsey consultant Julien Phillips published a paper in the journal, Human Resource Management. His ideas became McKinsey’s first change management model that it sold to clients and set the stage for much that came afterward.

Phillips’ work kicked off a number of similar approaches such as Kotter’s 8-step model and the Prosci ADKAR model and an industry was born. Today, hordes of “change consultants” ply their craft working to communicate transformational ideas to inspire change. The results, unfortunately, have been rather dismal.

The simple truth is that change rarely fails because people don’t understand it, but that it is actively sabotaged by those who, for whatever reason, oppose it. That’s why any change strategy that depends on persuasion is bound to fail. The truth is that if you want to bring change about you need to identify those who believe in it and empower them to succeed.

1. Create A Sense Of Urgency Around Change

One of the basic tenets of change management that dates back to Phillips’ original paper is that you need to create a “sense of urgency” around change. So change leaders work to gain approval for a sizable budget as a sign of institutional commitment, recruit high-profile executives, arrange a big “kick-off” meeting and look to move fast and gain scale.

That may work for a conventional project, but for something that’s truly transformational, it’s a sure path to failure. The problem is that if a change is important and has real potential to impact what people believe and what they do, there will always be those who will hate it and they will work to undermine it in ways that are dishonest, underhanded and deceptive.

Starting off with a “big bang” can often unwittingly aid these efforts. Large scale change of any kind, even if the net effect is overwhelmingly positive, always causes some disruption. So appearing to work to overpower, rather than to attract, others can feed into the atmosphere of fear and loathing that opponents of change want to create. It also gives the opponents of change a head start to kill change before it really even starts.

A much better approach is to work to empower small groups, loosely connected, united by a shared purpose. For example, when Wyeth Pharmaceuticals began its shift to lean manufacturing, it started with a single team at a single plant, but led to a 25% reduction of costs across 25 sites encompassing 17,000 employees.

2. Start With A Quick, Easy Win

Another thing that change consultants regularly recommend is going for a “quick and easy win” in order to build momentum and establish credibility. The problem is that if the “win” isn’t meaningful, it will do little to drive change forward. In fact, touting a meaningless and irrelevant pseudo-accomplishment can make change leaders look out-of-touch and impractical.

A much more effective strategy is to start with a keystone change that represents a concrete and tangible goal, involves multiple stakeholders and paves the way for future change. That’s how you can begin to build real traction. While the impact of that early keystone change might be limited, a small, but meaningful, success can show what’s possible.

Consider PxG, a process improvement initiative at Procter & Gamble. It started out when three young executives set out to improve a single process. It wasn’t quick or easy. In fact, it took months of hard work. Nevertheless, they were able to transform a bottleneck that held up projects for weeks into a streamlined procedure that is completed in mere hours.

In a similar vein, when the global data giant Experian sought to transform itself into a cloud-based enterprise, it started with internal API’s that were much less risky than those that allowed access to outsiders. These weren’t really that much simpler or easier than public API’s, but showed the potential of cloud technology.

The truth is that sometimes you need to go slow in order to go fast. Transformation is not a linear process, but accelerates as it gains momentum. It pays to build your change effort on solid ground, rather than trying to lurch forward. Nothing slows you down more than a setback.

3. Prepare A Stakeholder Map

In any change process, a variety of stakeholders will have concerns. So consultants often suggest mapping the various stakeholders in terms of their level of enthusiasm, engagement, power to influence and other parameters. The idea is that by categorizing and cataloguing, you can better understand the forces at play.

This type of approach makes for impressive looking PowerPoint decks and intellectually appealing reports, but does little to achieve real change. The truth is that what most influences stakeholders are other stakeholders. Slicing and dicing them eighteen different ways isn’t going to do much more than confuse the situation.

However, for decades social and political movements have used tools such as the Spectrum of Allies and the Pillars of Support to change entire societies and they are just as effective in organizational transformations. Essentially, the idea is to divide stakeholders into two categories: constituencies and institutions (or those who wield institutional power).

So to transform education, you might mobilize support from parents, teachers and students to influence school boards, administrators and teachers unions to make changes. In a corporate context, you might want to mobilize groups of employees, customers and other constituencies to influence internal and external institutions such as senior leaders, the media, professional associations, regulators, labor unions etc.

The point is that you are always mobilizing somebody to influence something. Pure mobilization is nothing more than rabble rousing. Working quietly behind closed doors leaves you vulnerable to an uprising among the rank and file. Building support among constituencies can not only influence those with institutional power to act, it builds change on solid ground.

Focusing On The 25% That Matters

There is an inherent flaw in human nature that has endowed us with a burning desire to convince skeptics. So it shouldn’t be surprising that change consultants focus on persuasion. Nothing validates a high fee like some clever wordsmithing designed to persuade those hostile to the ideas of those paying the bill.

Yet anybody who has ever been married or had children knows how difficult it can be to convince even a single person of something they don’t want to be convinced of. To set out to persuade hundreds—or even thousands—that they should adopt an idea that they are inherently hostile to is not only hubris, but incredibly foolish.

It is also unnecessary. Scientific research suggests that the tipping point for change is only a 25% minority. Once a quarter of the people involved become committed to change, the rest will largely go along. So there is no need to convince skeptics. Your time and effort will be much better spent helping those who are enthusiastic about change to make it succeed.

That’s what the change consultants get wrong. You don’t “manage” change. You empower it by enabling those who believe in it to show it can work and then bringing in others who can bring in others still. The truth is that you don’t need a clever slogan to bring change about, you need a network. That’s how you create a movement that drives transformation.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Pexels

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