Author Archives: Robert B. Tucker

About Robert B. Tucker

Robert B. Tucker is a globally recognized business futurist and president of The Innovation Resource Group in Santa Barbara, California. He has advised clients in 54 countries and authored eight books, including the bestsellers Managing the Future and Driving Growth Through Innovation. Tucker’s insights have guided organizations from IBM, Citibank, and American Express to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Dubai government. As one of the founders of the Innovation Movement, Robert has appeared on Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, Network 18 India, PBS, and was a featured guest on the CNBC series The Business of Innovation. A regular contributor to Forbes.com, Robert’s latest book is Build a Better Future: 7 Mindsets for Navigating the Age of Acceleration.

Reimagining Retirement

It is Time to Futurize Your Third Act

Reimagining Retirement

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

There’s a retirement crisis brewing in America. Fewer than half of today’s workforce are confident they’ll have enough money to ever stop working. Meanwhile, forty nine percent of Americans 55 – 66 have no personal retirement savings. And sixty-seven percent of Gen Xers (approaching age 60) have no retirement plan.

Amidst these rather grim statistics, a counter trend is quietly gaining steam. A shift in attitudes is occurring in how some people plan for, think about, and experience their final trimester of life – their “Third Act.”

As medical breakthroughs and healthier lifestyles extend longevity, this third phase of life is growing longer. In 1900, the average American could expect to live to age 47. By 2019, average lifespan had expanded to age 79. Life expectancy is expected to approach triple digits later this century.

Today’s retirees have been given the greatest gift in all of history –- 30 extra years of life. But the hard part is knowing what to do with the extra time. Studies show that many elders are squandering the gift, idling away their extra years in loneliness, poor health, and perpetual worry over finances and the state of the world.

According to Nielsen, today’s retiree spends 33 hours per week watching television, and 15-20 hours on the internet. Today’s generation of retirees is more isolated than ever, less likely to participate in community or religious organizations, less likely to be married, and less apt to speak to neighbors. They have fewer meaningful interactions with their spouses and partners and are more likely to report weaker ties to friends and family.

Yet not all retirees are falling into these patterns. The Third Act movement is about reimagining retirement through the lens of possibilities. The intention is not just to live longer, but to live better, with purpose and passion guiding the way. Instead of a 24/7 pursuit of leisure, some seniors are continuing to work. Others are realizing the importance of embracing this stage of life not just as a time of sedentary decline and aloneness, but as an opportunity for growth, spending time with loved ones, learning, and giving back to a nation that has given them so much. The Third Age movement encourages retirees to leverage their experience and wisdom to make meaningful contributions to society, promoting a vision of aging that is active, purposeful, and fulfilling.

Start planning your Third Act today. Hire a fee-based financial planner to help you come up with a plan. Even if your retirement is decades away, any 70-year-old will tell you it will be here before you know it. Even if money is tight right now, you can still put away a token amount by giving something up ($5 lattes). Your future self will be thankful you did. “I realize my dad – through no fault of his own – was never taught how to save and invest or how to plan for the future,” notes Zara Mirza, chief brand officer at TIAA. “Retirement savings is empowerment, it is creativity, it is a base that can allow a young person to live a freer and more authentic life.”

Create a vision of what you want your retirement years to look like. Don’t wait until your second act is finished to start planning your third act. The old saw that “failure to plan is planning to fail” applies to third acts. Interview friends and family members who have retired that you consider successful in filling their days with meaning. Write out your plan or create a vision board: How do you want it to be? What’s the view over the breakfast table, and what’s bringing you joy? Start a bucket list and write down what you want to accomplish.

Engage in activities that provide a sense of purpose. Although I’ve chosen not to retire because I love what I do (public speaking and authoring books on future trends), my wife retired after 40 years as a public-school teacher. Today she’s a CASA volunteer (Court Appointed Special Advocate), appointed by judges to provide vital support and advocacy for children in the foster care system. Volunteering, pursuing new hobbies, or even part-time work, can help maintain a sense of contribution and accomplishment.

Maintain and build social connections. Strong relationships are key to a fulfilling life, providing support, companionship, and joy. Upon retirement, many new retirees discover that their social network was largely around the work they did. Once they stop going to the office, those relationships tend to drop off. If so, it’s time to act. Replace your work network with your Third Act network. Strong relationships can offer emotional support and a sense of belonging. The flipside is loneliness, as Surgeon General Vivek Murthy noted in an advisory illuminating the dangers. “It is associated with a greater risk of cardiovascular disease, dementia, stroke, depression, anxiety, and premature death.”

Make lifelong learning and personal growth a reality. Through educational courses or creative pursuits can reignite passion and curiosity, ensuring that the post-retirement phase is not just a time of rest, but a period of vibrant and meaningful living. Good friends of mine in California (who asked not to be identified) retired after careers in corporate America. They decided in their late 60s to go back to college as a way of embracing their love of lifelong learning. They attended a university program that enables people in their 50s, 60s and 70s to attend classes alongside undergrads and grads. Their takeaway: “The kids today are fabulous, and they accepted us … [the experience] provided the spark we needed to engage even more with the world.”

Cultivate Health and Wellness: Prioritize physical and mental health. Engage in activities that keep you active and healthy, such as yoga, hiking, or even joining a sports league.

Explore New Passions: This is the time to explore interests that you may not have had time for during your working years. Whether it’s painting, writing, gardening, or traveling, immerse yourself in activities that bring joy and fulfillment.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pixabay

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Doug Days Could Be the Best Investment You Make in Your Long-Term Success

Doug Days Could Be the Best Investment You Make in Your Long-Term Success

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

Some years ago I had the pleasure of meeting Doug Greene, CEO and founder of New Hope Network, a natural products purveyor and convener of Natural Foods Expo. Every month Doug blocks off a day on his calendar to work on the business, rather than in the business.

Greene explained his unusual practice like this: “Every month I block off a day on my calendar. It’s what I don’t do that’s important. I turn off my phone and leave my laptop at home. No calls, no emails, no meetings. Instead, I’ll visit a nearby city, or I’ll go for a hike. I listen to my gut. And get clear on important decisions.”

Doug’s sense of the value of these disconnected but creatively productive days stuck with me. “If I hadn’t taken these Doug Days over the years, I’m confident we wouldn’t have enjoyed nearly the success we have had.”

Since meeting Doug, I’ve shared his practice with audiences around the world. I try to schedule a Doug Day at least twice a year. In every instance, I’ve come back reinvigorated. I found clarity on some aspect of my life and business that I needed to do some deep thinking on. And several of my colleagues, while at first skeptical, have fully committed to their Doug Days and are realizing the benefits.

Here are a few tips for planning your Doug Day:

1. Turn off your cell phone and get outside.

In a recent study at the University of California, San Diego showed that the mere presence of a cell phone in the room decreased brainpower. The closer the cell phone was to the participant, the less favorably they did on a test that gauged “available cognitive capacity,” a measure of how fully a person’s mind can focus on a particular task. So, step one to a Doug Day is to power off that phone and get outside.

2. Change your environment. Avoid getting creatively stuck.

This is key. By consciously getting out of the office or home office that you traditionally work in, you are already setting yourself up for success to think differently and you’re avoiding the doldrums of unproductivity. In an “Unleashing Creativity and Innovation” session I facilitated for an engineering firm, one participant commented, “If stuck, I’ll put the project aside, take a walk, visit a museum, or sleep on it. I often wake up with solutions. I keep paper and a pen next to my bed and in my car at all times.”

3. Take time to think about how you innovate.

Your Doug Day is a great time to introspect. When I coach leaders, I ask, “Where do you come up with ideas: in the shower? On the road? With your team? At conferences? The next question is: “How do you bring the ideas to life?” Keeping it simple, that’s the idea-to-reality process in a nutshell. Creativity is coming up with ideas. Innovation is bringing them to life. It’s solving problems you never faced before, it’s doing the research, and experimenting. It’s two steps back and one step forward and keeping at it. Innovation is something you’re already doing in your business and your personal life. Take time to think about how you come up with ideas and bring them to life.

4. Try Out New Environments for Your Doug Day.

I’ve done Doug Days in a wide variety of places from a small village in Japan to the Futurium Museum in Berlin, to hiking trails in Mammoth Lakes, California. I always feel reinvigorated with fresh ideas and solutions to problems that have been plaguing me at work. The trick is to keep it fresh and experience environments that awaken your senses and throw you new ideas.

I promise that taking a Doug Day will become a fixture in your calendar that you look forward to as well.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Gemini

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Adaptation is Quickly Becoming a Critical Leadership Skill

Adaptation is Quickly Becoming a Critical Leadership Skill

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

Tesla is laying off workers as electric vehicle sales slow to a crawl. Peloton, the “connected fitness” company that rocketed to stardom during the Pandemic, is jettisoning its CEO and undergoing another round of job cuts as sales lag. Meanwhile, at Nike, firings will continue as growth sputters and the consumer-direct business model has proved a disappointment.

What’s going on here? If market leaders like Tesla, Peloton, and Nike are having trouble adapting, what’s the message for other firms?

What these and other innovators have in common is a failure to adapt to changing market dynamics. Nike was looking ahead when the company decided to build out its e-commerce business. However, they alienated their distribution channels when they withdrew from certain brick-and-mortar retailers before the new consumer direct model proved a hit with consumers. It turns out not all customers were comfortable buying sneakers online.

In 2012, Peloton founder John Foley saw an opportunity that upended the exercise market. As I wrote in Forbes, Foley’s curiosity was initially aroused when he noticed how many stationary bikes were unused in basements and closets. At the same time, he also noticed that time-strapped consumers were commuting more and working longer hours. Often, they lacked the time to hit the gym.

Peloton’s breakthrough was offering a sleek $2200 connected bike with a screen where live classes taught by standout instructors simulated being at the gym. However, after a meteoric surge during COVID-19 (reaching a top valuation of $47 billion in June 2021), the company failed to anticipate so many customers wanting to return to the gym once the crisis abated. Today, Peloton trades at about $3 with an enterprise value of $2.7 billion.

Even for experienced leaders, it is easy to miss the signals that customer needs have shifted. As a futurist, I teach my clients the importance of keeping tabs on change of all types and in all its varieties and variations: regulatory, demographic, consumer, and technological.

The dairy industry didn’t see another type of threat coming at them. Result: sales of cow’s milk dropped over 46 percent as consumers switched to soy milk, almond milk, oat milk, and other non-dairy beverages.

Adaptation is fast becoming the critical success skill of the future. Rapid and unexpected shifts in consumer and market behavior are more common than ever. With the onslaught of generative artificial intelligence, stubborn inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical and climate shocks, understanding that our assumptions have not been accurate, and adapting to the unexpected becomes more important. And data, as useful as it often is, is a lagging indicator. What is needed in changing times are leading indicators.

As a futurist and innovation expert, I foresee a rate of change in the years ahead that will be unlike anything we have had to contend with in the past. These are early days in the Age of Acceleration. I calculate that there will likely be more change in the next 10 years than in the past 100 years. Think in terms of a doubling of climate disasters in the year 2034 just to get your mind around what’s likely ahead in just one category of change.

The leadership challenge is that post-Blockbuster, post-Kodak, and post-Blackberry, we assume we are on guard and alert. We feel we know what the future looks like. We misinterpret the signals. We don’t see the need to adapt.

Leadership teams need to grapple with new issues: are our early warning systems up to the challenge of rapid social, economic, technological, and demographic change? Are our risk management systems looking at future risk in the right way? Instead of preparing for the 100 flood, what about the 500-year flood? How are you preparing your team to challenge long-held assumptions?

Because the world is changing so fast, it won’t be the biggest companies that will navigate this uncharted landscape. Rather, it will be those who are agile, who can differentiate their offerings in crowded markets, and who can adapt rapidly who will own the future.

Of course, the need to adapt is nothing new. A century and a half ago, botanist Charles Darwin observed that it is not the most intelligent nor the strongest of the species that survives. “It is the species that is best able to adapt to the changing environment in which it finds itself.”

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pixabay

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The Psychology of Winning

An Interview on Mindset and Agency

The Most Important Choice We Make is Choosing How to Think

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

I began my career interviewing thought leaders, futurists, innovators, and visionaries as a Los Angeles-based journalist. For the May 1982, edition of PSA Magazine, I interviewed renowned speaker and behavioral psychologist Dr. Denis Waitley, whose “Psychology of Winning” cassette learning system was riding high on bestseller lists, and Waitley’s calendar was full of speaking engagements.

Waitley’s ideas were pivotal in fueling my own career trajectory and belief system, for he and other human potential leaders opened my eyes to how far you can go if you work to control your thoughts and self beliefs. Waitley and I eventually wrote a book together called Winning the Innovation Game, and sadly, we have lost touch.

Nevertheless, when I came across this interview the other day, I thought about Waitley’s ideas on not blaming others (“the government,” “racism,” “the other party,” “the Deep State,” “growing up in poverty,” etc.), I couldn’t help notice how the pendulum has swung even more towards victimization. These days, we seem to be moving away from our own sense of agency (“If it’s going to be, it’s up to me”) and towards nursing grievances and blaming others for our lack of results, rather than taking responsibility for our lives and making it happen every day by the way we control our thoughts.

TUCKER: Of all the characteristics of high-achieving individuals that you’ve had a chance to observe, which one seems to define them best?

WAITLEY: It’s their understanding of the degree of control that their thoughts have over the actions that follow in their lives. Whether they happen to be astronauts or parents or prisoners of war, these people have taken responsibility for their own achievements. They’re self-managers.

TUCKER: What does that mean?

WAITLEY: Self-management is declaring that life is a do-it-to-myself project. Instead of just letting life happen, I’m going to make it happen for me, and I’m going to exercise the greatest freedom I have, which is the freedom of choice. The deepest, most significant choice we make is in the way we choose to think.

TUCKER: Isn’t controlling one’s thoughts one of the hardest things to do?

WAITLEY: No, but I think one of the hardest things to believe is that it can have any effect on your life. Almost all people believe that they are victims of environmental circumstances, the government, the weather, their horoscopes, certainly the economy. They feel they must wait for luck or fate or karma to change before they can have some effect on their lives. What’s hardest to understand is that we’re doing it every day, using our self-talk either for or against ourselves.

TUCKER: What do you mean by self-talk?

WAITLEY: We’re talking to ourselves every moment of our waking lives. It comes automatically. We’re seldom even aware that we’re doing it. We all have a running commentary going on in our heads on events and our reactions to them. By changing what you’re saying, you can change your behavior.

TUCKER: Should we consciously try to stop thinking negative thoughts by repressing doubts and fears?

WAITLEY: No. Those are natural emotions.

TUCKER: If you’re giving a speech, for instance, and you’re nervous, should you go ahead and admit it to the audience?

WAITLEY: No, because that is self-fulfilling and becomes a habit. It’s much better to go on and do it anyway and listen for positive responses from the audience and try to reward yourself for a successful speech. It’s not so much the performance that counts, because on any given day your performance will be good or not so good—a lot of factors affect your performance. But your response to it is what’s most important of all.

TUCKER: But people do have fears. Businesspeople worry constantly about a slump in their businesses, and salespeople worry about blowing a sale. Are you suggesting we shouldn’t verbalize those fears?

WAITLEY: I see the expression of fear as fine, but most fears and phobias are imaginary. A Michigan study found that 60 percent of our fears are totally unwarranted; 20 percent have already passed and are out of our control entirely; and another 10 percent are so petty that they don’t make any difference. Of the remaining 10 percent, only 4 or 5 percent are real and justifiable fears, And even of those, we couldn’t do anything about half of them! The other half we could easily solve by seeking out further information. Fear is not an effective emotion. It’s an emotion you should feel under physical danger.

TUCKER: How do you control your interior dialogue? What instructions can you offer?

WAITLEY: The self-talk of winners is affirmative and directed toward the results they want: after a poor performance, a winner would say, “That’s not like me, I can do better than that. I need more information about the target because I didn’t hit it. Therefore, I’ve either set the target too far off for right now, or I don’t have enough to go on.” The immediate self-talk of that performance should be, “target correction necessary.” After a good performance, on the other hand, the immediate feedback would be, “Now we’re getting somewhere. This is the way I see myself performing.” Non-high-performance individuals will have a good day or do something exceptional, but they’ll totally defeat themselves because they’ll have convinced themselves that it was a fluke.

TUCKER: So you believe in coaxing the mind toward the goal, almost talking to yourself?

WAITLEY: Absolutely. I believe in talking to myself in words, pictures, and emotions for a long time before a performance and just afterward. It’s even more important after a successful performance to assimilate it.

TUCKER: You recommend using simulation also as a way of improving performance. How does the system work?

Waitley: The neat thing about the brain is that it is a mimic of what we put into it in advance. Airline pilots have been using simulation for years. But it’s also a technique that businesspeople and everybody can practice, just by creating each experience that we want in our imagination first, before the event. The other day on a flight to Chicago, I was sitting next to a fellow who was making a weird, high-pitched humming noise, with his eyes closed. I turned the overhead air nozzle on his face and asked him if he wanted me to call the stewardess to come to his aid. It turned out that he was an oboist for the Chicago Symphony and he was practicing for that night’s performance. I met a world-champion Russian figure skater who told me that she rarely falls because she practices each sequence in her imagination at night with her eyes closed. She could probably perform her entire routine blindfolded with no hesitation. Simulation is the ability to do within when you’re without.

TUCKER: What is your primary message to those you teach?

WAITLEY: That the period of time we’re living in is no worse than any other period in history, and probably better. Because problems are normal and inherent with change. And since society is changing rapidly, it’s up to the individual to view change as normal and to see many of the changes taking place as positive rather than negative. But we’re not historians by nature. So we’re not apt to say, let’s look at what happened in the past for guidance. There’s such an incredible focus in society on deviant behavior, bad news, and things going wrong that most people take it all on their shoulders. They feel that things were better before and will probably be better at some unpredictable point in the future called “someday.”

TUCKER: Do you consider yourself a psychologist first or a motivator?

WAITLEY: I’m a motivational trainer first. I teach people how to view the world, how to view themselves in the world, and how to establish some rules of conduct toward their personal and professional lives. So in effect, I’m a performance enhancer. I consider myself a psychologist second, although I’m constantly trying to make sure that the techniques, I’m applying have some basis in fact and have been researched.

TUCKER: What do your audiences want from you?

WAITLEY: They think what motivation is is a pump up, let’s-go-out-there-and-kill-’em mentality. Motivation has been one of the most misunderstood, oversold words I’ve ever come across. What researchers have found is that the old locker-room psych-up causes you to peak too early. The adrenaline athletes have pumped up in the locker room tends to make them overanxious, and they make mistakes. They go out there, and instead of being relaxed and knowing exactly what they’re going to do, they’re actually too aroused to think. The new way is to have quiet time in the locker room —this applies to both Olympic and Super Bowl athletes- when athletes sit and listen to soft music and rehearse in their imaginations the game they know they are capable of playing because they’re prepared. And it’s really the same situation in life if you think about it.

TUCKER: Why is it more important to replay a successful performance than to analyze a bad one?

WAITLEY: Because most of us don’t spend enough time preparing for or simulating success in advance, and we aren’t prepared for it when we achieve it. We haven’t spent enough time thinking about how good it is going to feel to be successful. For whatever reason we become successful, we don’t completely understand it. And because of this, we don’t feel deserving of it; it comes upon us like instant stardom or winning the sweepstakes. Right away, our self-talk begins to tear down the success, and we get back to where we were before or we go back to being our “practiced selves.”

TUCKER: Of the high-achieving people you’ve observed, do they seem to be

goal-oriented?

WAITLEY: It’s definitely a common denominator of successful people. I find that the most common problem with people who never reach their goals is that they never set them. It isn’t that goals are unreachable; it’s that most people never take the time to write them down. They spend more time planning Christmas or a vacation than they do their lives. I’ll ask people what they are going to do in 1983 and they’ll say, “Who can tell? It depends on whether Reaganomics works.” Then I’ll ask, “What are you going to be doing by 1985?” they’ll reply, “Well, it will probably be worse, with the interest rates and all. We don’t have any idea.”

TUCKER: What’s your method for setting goals?

WAITLEY: I believe it’s best to write out your life goals first, the things you want to do in the long range. Then, break down your goals into intermediate ones: What do you want to accomplish in the next three years? What do you intend to accomplish in the next six months? And then, after you’ve done this, how are you going to achieve them? It’s very important to be specific; not just that you want to be happy. You want to be happy in what way? Do you want to be happy with your children at night when you come home? To answer these questions, you’ll have to put down certain affirmative statements that will project you toward your goals.

TUCKER: What do you say to people who reach their goals and find that they still aren’t happy?

WAITLEY: If your goals are symbols of success—a mansion, a yacht, a certain position in business or in the university—those I call shallow and superficial targets. If your goal was to make a million dollars and you made it, you’d find it shallow, because no one really cares. It isn’t the achievement of the million dollars that’s important; it was the process you went through in achieving it. So, goal setters have to be careful. They must understand that life itself is a process and that there is a big picture, that they fit into the big universe and that the most successful people look beyond themselves and their own goals for meaning and purpose in life.

These people are the ones who are busy planting shade trees under which they know they’ll never sit. The biggest fools are the ones who look at the destination as the answer and not the process of the journey as being important. But it’s equally foolish to go out there and just journey without having a destination.

TUCKER: What role does ambition play in your psychology of winning?

WAITLEY: A great one. Ambition is the role of imagination. It’s simply a desire for change or a dissatisfaction with the status quo. A desire for change means that I can see something out there that is better than what I have.

TUCKER: You mentioned earlier that we Americans may be working so hard that we may not be taking enough time to relax and reflect. What do you recommend as ways to keep from becoming too narrowly focused in one’s work?

WAITLEY: I think reading the best-selling nonfiction books is important. And if you don’t have time to read those, then definitely read the digests of them. They even have digests of medical breakthroughs, and they’re starting to put these digests on tape, so that what we used to think of as downtime in rush-hour traffic can be come in your auto-classroom. Attending seminars and lectures of all kinds, is important. Even more important is talking to people who have different views from yours.

TUCKER: Do you advocate having a specific daily routine?

WAITLEY: I’m a big believer in a success routine if the things you are doing are really beneficial. That might include getting up half an hour earlier, to ask yourself, “What is the most important thing I can do today that’s going to benefit me and those close to me?” Unfortunately, routines often end up stifling growth; we start resting on our laurels, becoming complacent, thinking about retirement. And then some young Turk comes along who’s not in a routine and can knock you right off your perch.

TUCKER: The direct opposite of resting on one’s laurels would be continually innovating, and continually undertaking new projects. What are your thoughts on that?

WAITLEY: I have a rule for that. If you’re just starting to succeed, keep repeating the success, and don’t innovate at the beginning of a successful pattern, but continue until you have succeeded for some time. Once you’re successful in your own eyes and in the eyes of the audience, then diversify, because people will help you do anything you want to after you are successful in each field.

TUCKER: In your book, The Psychology of Winning, you talk about creating a model for yourself. Could you explain the idea?

WAITLEY: Throughout the first half of most people’s lives they operate under a system of trial and error. Finally, we get smart through our failures and begin to repeat a success. It’s a heck of a way to live, yet everyone says you must go through it. But you really don’t. What is important is for a person to find a role model or a success model of someone who seems similar in intelligence and maybe even background, and maybe in a similar field. The only difference is that this model has had a great deal more success. Modeling is looking at other people’s lives, how they do what they do, interviewing them, reading about them, listening to them, really studying them, and finding out how they do it.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pexels

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A Peak Inside the Diamond Industry

A Peak Inside the Diamond Industry

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

As a futurist and innovation coach, I’ve worked with literally hundreds of industry groups, from manufacturing to retail to distribution. Few of them have fascinated me more than the global diamond industry.

So, when I read King of Diamonds, the behind-the-scenes story of American diamond merchant Harry Winston, I could not put it down. I organized a book signing discussion dinner in Santa Barbara featuring the book’s author, Ronald Winston, his oldest son.

Over glasses of California wine and bowls of delicious turkey chili, we were enthralled by the rags-to-riches story that Winston told about his late father — and growing up the son of such a prominent businessman.

Few American success stories rival that of Harry Winston, who stood just over five feet tall, the epitome of the self-made man.

Born Harry Weinstein in 1896, the family escaped wrenching poverty and periodic antisemitic pogroms (massacres) in Ukraine for the allure of freedom and the American Dream.

Working in his family’s jewelry shop, young Harry was sent to scour pawn shops looking for items his parents could resell. On one of these outings, he recognized a two-carat emerald and bought it for twenty-five cents. Days later his father sold it for $800, a massive sum in the early 1900s, and no doubt brought the kid lots of “attaboys” and praise from family and friends.

From that moment on Weinstein became obsessed with gems, especially diamonds. After a stint in California during World War One, Weinstein moved back to Manhattan, suddenly deciding to change his name to the more British-sounding Harry Winston. It was the beginning of an iconic transformation from obscurity into the larger-than-life persona that created one of the world’s most prestigious luxury brands.

“I first realized my father was famous when I heard his name on the radio in 1949 during our annual winter holiday in Palm Beach,” recalled Ron Winston, who was eight years old. “The newscaster announced Harry Winston’s purchase of the famous Hope Diamond for a million dollars. Back then that was a phantasmagoric sum, like a billion today, and it made my father more than just a dad. It was more than a little intimidating.”

Harry Winston’s work ethic was second to none. He arose at 5:30 am, exercised, and worked feverishly in the business, returning to the family’s Fifth Avenue apartment at 8 pm each evening. He built his reputation one wealthy client at a time: the wife of the Texas oilman from Houston, the New York socialite, the Hollywood mogul’s wife. “He was known by the rich and famous as being someone they could trust and he never pandered to them,” recalled Ron.

After being robbed at gunpoint in his store, Harry Winston became obsessed with security. He warned his son to keep a low profile at all times. “I had no idea how much there was to be protected from in the diamond world,” noted Ron Winston. “There were unscrupulous business rivals, treacherous colleagues, and powerful, vindictive clients.”

Always looking to promote his wares, Harry Winston began adorning Hollywood starlets with sparkling, expensive diamond necklaces as they walked the runway at the Oscars. The strategy backfired when one of them, actress Sharon Stone, refused to give back the necklace she’d been loaned, claiming it was a gift. She eventually relented, but not until lawyers got involved.

Then too, there was the actual procurement of the great stones, which were mostly mined in the deepest, darkest Africa. At the time, South Africa-based De Beers had a tight grip on the supply, and on pricing, a true monopoly if ever there was one. Eventually, Harry Winston had a schism with De Beers, and the lack of supply nearly cost him his business.

Winston, always the creative problem solver, came up with the solution to try and purchase mines in Africa. This proved a disaster — his partners cleaned him out. Instead, he enrolled his son Ron to establish direct ties to diamond mines that were not controlled by De Beers, leading to harrowing adventures, which Ron tells in the book.

Each foray required hiring mercenaries to protect his team, and one of those men put a gun to his head and told him to wake up. They transported millions of dollars in cash to pay diamond miners. And they exported millions of dollars in raw stones in scenes worthy of a movie. While Ron Winston was at first reluctant to enter the family business, he eventually did and became CEO until the company was sold to the Swiss Swatch Group in 2013.

As the evening’s host, I asked Ron to read from his work, which he did. Here in his own words was the well-told story of a colorful life lived by a man who was the epitome of the American Dream.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pixabay

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10 Ways to Navigate the Acceleration of Everything

10 Ways to Navigate the Acceleration of Everything

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

With ChatGPT celebrating its first anniversary this month, I’ve been musing lately on what historians might say about the times we are living in. What does the future hold when things are changing this fast in so many realms of our lives? How do we prepare for what’s ahead when there is so much uncertainty? How do we find our way in this new era of destabilizing, relentless change, hyper-competition, and mushrooming complexity?

Look around today and what you see are the contours of a radically different era emerging before our eyes. From technology to energy; from geopolitics to social media; from the workplace to the boardroom; and from the marketplace to your industry and profession.

As a global futurist and innovation speaker, I’m familiar with the vicissitudes of rapid change. I’ve made a living and seen the world advising governments, corporations, and small businesses on how to profit from change in 54 countries.

But this post-pandemic, artificial intelligence climate is different.

I truly believe we will experience more change over the next 10 years than we have over the past 50 or 100 years. More social change, more environmental and climatological disasters and challenges, more scientific and medical breakthroughs, and more technological change. As societies continue to age, and the number of live births continues to decrease, vast demographic changes will intensify.

I also see that we are woefully unprepared for these changes.

What is needed is a set of principles to guide us toward being adaptive and resilient. Just as rockets avoid collisions with space debris by adjusting their trajectories using onboard propulsion and guidance systems, we’ll all need to adopt new “navigational skills” that alert us to debris in our paths.

Below are some principles for successfully navigating the future with confidence:

  1. Train yourself to think like a futurist. You’re at the supermarket, or your kid’s soccer game. You’re walking through an airport, or listening to a sermon. Everywhere you go and whatever you’re doing, be observant of the changes before your eyes. Read voraciously and skip the trivia. Engage yourself by asking questions: where will this change seemingly go? How will this one develop?
  2. Scan and monitor an array of trends. To avoid being blindsided by change, keep tabs on a range of trends: your industry trends of course, but also workplace, geopolitical, climatological, demographic, economic, social, and regulatory trends.
  3. Look for patterns within emerging trends. Former Disney futurist Yvette Montero Salvatico uses the analogy of the night sky. Think of the stars as trends, she councils. As you look further you begin to notice constellations: the Big Dipper, Aries, Taurus, Gemini, Cancer, and so on. It’s the same with trend-tracking. Take the time to look for patterns in what you are observing. The result is better response time and more “ah ha’s.”
  4. Audit your information diet. Examine your information diet and objectively asses whether your newsfeed and the podcasts, publications, and email newsletters you ingest are mostly informational fast food, or whether you’re continuously intaking “news you can use”?
  5. In fast-changing times, avoid fads, hucksters, and get-rich-quick schemes. The crypto crash of 2023 is a case in point. Millions of people got suckered into this “wave of the future” opportunity, which was an over-hyped Ponzi scheme. The age-old adage still applies: “A fool and his money are soon parted.”
  6. Assault assumptions as a matter of course, whether personal, organizational, or societal. We were caught flat-footed by COVID-19 because we assumed that modern medicine and healthcare practices had made global pandemics a thing of the past. It is always the category of trends that we are not monitoring that rises and bites us like a snake.
  7. To lead ahead of the curve, peer ahead of the curve. The winners in this emerging age are the ones who seek to anticipate where the trends are going and creatively respond by discovering emerging needs and being quick to fill them.
  8. Look back and drink in history to look ahead. Winston Churchill once said, “The farther backward you could look the farther forward you can see.” As the world accelerates, hindsight (learning from history) precedes insight (understanding the present), and insight precedes foresight — the ability to see what is likely to happen in the future and to take appropriate action.
  9. Remember that every action you take today shapes the future tomorrow. We must be purposeful in realizing our knowledge and perceptions about the future inform our decisions. The decisions we make today become our tomorrow. Nothing about the future is written in stone. The future is what we make of it by the big and little decisions we make every day.
  10. Visualize the future you want to see, rather than the media creates for you. Contemplating where you want to go and how you intend to get there is time well spent. It is a hallmark of every successful individual. Always has been and always will be.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pexels

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Why Are Many of the Best Innovators Failing?

Why Are Many of the Best Innovators Failing?

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

Crypto enterprenuer Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy and may now face 110 years in prison when sentenced in 2024.

Meanwhile, in Texas, Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes has begun serving an 11-year sentence for making false claims to investors about blood-testing devices that could supposedly detect “hundreds of diseases with just a few drops of blood.” The trial showed they could not reliably detect a single one.

And just this week, office space-sharing pioneer Adam Neumann’s brainchild, WeWork, declared bankruptcy.

Everywhere you look these days, formerly high-flying innovators seem to be falling out of the sky and crashing to earth. Even Elon Musk.

Two years ago, Musk was flying high. He was Time’s Man of the Year and Forbes named him the richest person on the planet. But his 2022 purchase of Twitter has become a financial and reputational nightmare. His antics have destroyed billions of dollars in shareholder value, alienated advertisers, and driven away users in droves.

Yet it would be a mistake to conflate Musk’s fall with Holmes or Bankman Fried. Musk is the real deal, the genuine article, and they are not.

The pre-Twitter Elon Musk who shines through the pages of Walter Isaacson’s biography of Musk deserves study by would-be innovators everywhere. Isaacson takes the reader behind the scenes and into Musk’s brain and bullied background growing up with a conspiracy-crazed father in South Africa. Isaccson, who has written biographies of Steve Jobs, Ben Franklin, Albert Einstein, and Leonardo Da Vinci, reveals how Musk was able to disrupt every industry he’s entered: money transfer with PayPal, renewable energy with SolarCity, electric vehicles and batteries with Tesla, and space entrepreneurship with SpaceX.

Isaacson tells the emblematic story of Musk in late 2018, sitting at his desk playing with a small toy version of the Tesla Model S. Examining the toy he noticed something that alerted his assumption-spotting mindset: the entire underbody was cast as one piece of metal. At a meeting of his core team, Musk pulled out the toy and put it on the table. “Why can’t we do that?” he asked.

An engineer present pointed out the obvious: an actual car was much bigger. Besides, someone else observed, there were no casting machines available to handle something the size of an automobile.

“Go figure out how to do it,” Musk demanded. “Find a bigger casting machine. It’s not as if that would break the laws of physics.” Five suppliers told them what they wanted was impossible. But they found a small casting company in Italy that was willing to give it a try. Today that company makes all of Tesla’s underbodies.

Musk deploys this sort of cognitive pushback against all sorts of impediments and conventional thinking which opens doors to new possibilities; it is fundamental to his method of operating and outlook on the world.

Told that it will take 10 days to set up a rocket on the launchpad for further testing, Musk urges his engineers to figure out how to set it up in one day. When told that doing business in China will require that he form a joint venture with a Chinese company, Musk pushes back on that assumption and ultimately is granted an exception.

When he seeks to understand why Denver Airport’s baggage handling system failed (”too complex”) or why it’s taken NASA and BoeingBA -2.3% forever to innovate in the rocket arena, he rethinks the assumption that being paid by the government on a cost-plus basis will ever get the job done. Instead, Musk proposes that NASA only pay him when he is successful, heightening the risk, but concentrating the do-or-die stakes that break barriers, boundaries, and bureaucracy.

Unnecessary complexities on the rocket engine line that slowed things down to a NASA/Boeing snail’s pace enrage and energize Musk. At one point, he put his design engineers in charge of production like he had done for a while at Tesla. “I created separate design and production groups a long time ago, and that was a bullshit mistake,” he said at one meeting. “You are responsible for the production process. You can’t hand it off to someone else. If the design is expensive to produce, you change the design.”

And then came Twitter. Musk impulsively decided to buy the company, then regretted it almost immediately. When he took over, there were 8000 employees. Two months later there were just over 2000, a 75% reduction. Overnight, Twitter went from being a nurturing workplace, replete with free artisanal meals, yoga studios, and paid rest days to the other extreme.

“He did it not only for cost reasons,” writes Isaacson, “he preferred a scrappy, hard-driven environment where rabid warriors felt psychological danger rather than comfort.” Musk believes that a small group of really great engineers can outperform a regular group 100 times larger. Musk’s method, as it had been since the Falcon One rocket, was to iterate fast, take risks, be brutal, except failure, and keep failing till you break through.

“We were changing the engines while the plane was spiraling out of control,” Musk tells Isaacson, referring to Twitter. “It’s a miracle we survived.” But did he really?

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pixabay

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Imagining a Brighter Tomorrow for Humanity at Berlin’s Futurium

Imagining a Brighter Tomorrow for Humanity at Berlin’s Futurium

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

While Hamas terrorists were executing their deadly attack on Israel last week, my travel companions and I were in Prague and Berlin, visiting museums and recalling that famous line of historian George Santayana, “Those who forget their history are condemned to repeat it.”

Aging Boomers all, we were seekers of history. What are its lessons for the Age of Acceleration?

In Prague, we visited the Jewish Quarter, which dates back to the 10th century. We learned how Jews enjoyed periods of prosperity and cultural contribution but also endured chapters of harsh discrimination and persecution. In Berlin, we were guided on a walking tour through the sobering Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe. The tour culminated in the parking lot where Hitler’s bunker once stood 17 meters below.

Germany has done a remarkable job of owning up to its brutal and horrific past (11 million Jews and Gypsies killed), while not sensationalizing the Nazi period or Adolph Hitler in any way. We were told that giving the Hitler salute is illegal and that displaying swastikas is forbidden.

If you’re a fan of museums as I am, Berlin is the place to go. This vibrant, youthful, and progressive city of 3.6 million inhabitants features “Museum Island” which houses a total of five world-class museums all devoted to honoring and learning from the past.

All of the museums we visited are devoted to the past except The Futurium in Berlin, which is devoted to the future and its potentialities. No doubt because of my work as a futurist (and innovation advisor) to governments and leading companies, this chance discovery turned out to be a highlight of the trip.

A Museum About the Future

Meander into The Futurium and you experience a different vibe. Instead of the somber weight of the past, and marble statues of the greats of antiquity, there are the excited sounds of kids on field trips zooming around as if taking in a theme park. The Futurium is shiny and new, part innovation lab, part meeting space for conversation and dialogue, part exhibition and art museum. Mercifully, Berlin’s museum of the future avoids the tired, overdone futuristic cliches; there are a few of the usual flying cars and robots of Tomorrowland-style pavilions but this is not what grabs your fancy. Instead, many impressive and artistic exhibits invite you to envision alternative solutions to housing, food supply, and energy issues.

One installation that caught my eye, a gigantic collage, appeared designed to bring together visions, ideas, and pilot projects from architects and ordinary citizens on how cities might become greener and more sustainable. The fundamental conviction of Futurium is that all possible futures are the result of our decisions and our innovativeness, and our actions. While the past is irreversible, what this uniquely innovative environment reminds us of is that all that will happen depends on what we choose to do today.

Futurium’s contribution is to remind us that we can shape the future and that nothing about it is written in stone. We are limited only by our imaginations, and our collective will to rise above the carnage and create a brighter future. Futurium provides us that space and reminds us that we owe it to the children in our midst.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Carolyn D. McQuay via Robert B. Tucker

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Nobody Wants to Go to China Anymore

Nobody Wants to Go to China Anymore

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

Six months after China lifted Covid-19 restrictions and reopened its borders, visitors are staying away in droves.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Shanghai’s and Beijing’s airports are nearly deserted. In the first half of 2023 less than a quarter of visitors traveled there compared to 2019.

The problem has little to do with recovery from the Pandemic. Instead, it’s the steady rise in geopolitical tensions; China’s mounting economic and social problems, and the “decoupling” of China from the West.

Foreign direct investment has plummeted by 80 percent year over year. Thus, business people have less reason to travel there. And more reasons to stay away. Employees at several US consulting companies have been detained, their offices searched. The business climate is no longer roll out the red carpet for foreign business people. Pandemic supply chain snafus have made reliance on China a bigger risk than was realized.

Fewer deals mean fewer relationships and fewer reasons to travel there.

Remembering When China Was the “In” Country

Excitement was in the air during my first trip to China, in 2002. Globalization was on the rise, and the world was flat, according to influential columnist Tom Friedman. My book, “Driving Growth Through Innovation” had just been translated into Chinese. Citibank, IBM and other multinationals invited me to address their top leaders across Asia. This was at a time when China was considered a juggernaut, and the “China Price” was wiping out America’s small and mid-sized manufacturers by the score. Even the sleepiest American manufacturers were encouraged to go to China to find low-cost contract manufacturers to take over production. And everybody wanted to go there to check out this economic miracle that was lifting millions out of poverty.

When China Began to Change

Fast forward to my most recent trip to China, in 2016, and China was beginning to change. In June of that year, I traveled to Beijing for a three-city lecture tour arranged by business school professor of innovation and strategy Chen Jin, of Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. As always, I enjoyed the interaction with super sharp business people, and with his bright and eager graduate students, many of whom spoke almost perfect English. Professor Chen was kind enough to set up interviews with executives at Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi, a fast-growing mobile phone and internet company, and I was amazed at the amount of product, service and business model innovation in China.

A visit to Alibaba on a Sunday morning revealed an organization bustling with young people willing to work even on weekends, and to live in block after block of dorms adjacent to office buildings. The Chinese English-language dailies reported on a seemingly endless array of measures designed to fuel the nation’s future. Announcements that China was building the world’s most powerful supercomputer; service robots to help serve China’s aging population; the launch of yet another Chinese rocket called The Long March. And most importantly Belt & Road Initiative, the trillion-dollar Eastern Europe and Asia infrastructure project, and China’s future seemed bright, unstoppable.

Yet even then, as I look back, there were storm clouds on the horizon. In a report I wrote upon return from China (“Five Windows on Where China is Headed Next”) I listed a growing host of issues: among them China’s price advantage for manufacturing was disappearing. In 2002, China’s labor costs were just 60 cents an hour, but by 2016 they’d risen to $14.60 an hour, compared to $22.68 in the US. Also of concern: the slowdown in China’s GDP growth (from 10 percent to 6 percent), a ballooning debt burden, polluted ground water and toxic air, it’s Ghost Cities, and stock market 30 percent plunge. In the report, I quoted Morgan Stanley’s chief global strategist warning that “China is a threat to the United States not because it is strong, but because it is fragile.”

Nostalgia for the Early Days of China’s Rise

Fragile or simply transitioning from one business model to the next, the China that is emerging is dramatically different from the China of the recent past. Isolation and distrust grow, as relationships diminish.

“Fewer tourists and businesspeople mean fewer opportunities for foreigners to see China with their own eyes and interact with locals, notes Wall Street Journal reporter Wenxin Fan. “This is an important factor in reducing geopolitical tensions.”

One journalist who has gone to China recently is Tom Friedman of the New York Times. “I just returned from visiting China for the first time since Covid struck. Being back in Beijing was a reminder of my first rule of journalism: If you don’t go, you don’t know. Relations between our two countries have soured so badly, so quickly, and have so reduced our points of contact — very few American reporters are left in China, and our leaders are barely talking — that we’re now like two giant gorillas looking at each other through a pinhole. Nothing good will come from this.”

Based on my travels in China and 54 countries these past three decades, I see the good that can come from “going there” rather than isolation. I also see the value of idea and best practice exchange, open dialogue, low or no barriers to trade, and of educational exchange. We are all better off when borders and markets and minds are open, when businesspeople and adventurers can travel and explore and learn from each other, and build relationships.

Probably the worst decision in human history was that of the Chinese Emperor Zhu Zhanji in 1434. In that year he issued the Edict of Haijin that closed China off from the rest of the world for over a century. Let’s hope that history is not repeating itself.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pexels

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How to Accelerate Your Career in the Age of AI and Continuous Disruption

How to Accelerate Your Career in the Age of AI and Continuous Disruption

GUEST POST from Robert B. Tucker

Artificial intelligence. Aging populations. The climate crisis. The world is changing more rapidly than any other moment in history, opening the door to both unprecedented volatility and unmatched innovation. The time to prepare for tomorrow’s challenges is now — at an immersive California conference designed specifically to equip future-forward thinkers to lead the charge.

As host of the Pacific Coast Futures Retreat, I’m convening a broad range of futurists, scientists, government officials, tech and NGO leaders and others to join me in Santa Barbara for an immersive, think tank-style gathering to focus on equipping leaders to face the driving forces of change. I believe that, because of exploding technology, geopolitical shocks, and worsening climate crisis, that in the next ten years there will be more change than in the last 50.

Registration is now open for the May 2 retreat, which is limited to 60 future-minded attendees.

Artificial intelligence, climate change and the aging population will disrupt millions who are unprepared. But those same forces also provide an incredible opportunity for those ready to lead change and prosper. At the retreat, we’ll immerse ourselves in preparing our businesses, organizations, schools and society for what’s coming next — because every aspect of our world will be impacted by these challenges and threats:

I’ll be joined by these future-focused innovators:

  • Rinaldo Brutoco (founder and CEO of the World Business Academy), on “Driving the Net Zero Energy Future Through Innovation”
  • Jim Cathcart (speaker, author and personal development expert) on “Maximizing Your Potential, and Maximizing Your Future”
  • Chris Chirgwin (tech entrepreneur and CIO in a major governmental organization) on “Navigating The Future of Technology & Opportunities in Emerging Tech-Trends”
  • Dr. Don Gilman (technology and leadership strategist) on “Outsmarting VUCA: Achieving Success in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous World”
  • Rich Sorkin (co-founder of the climate risk startup Jupiter Intelligence) on “How to Seize the Opportunities in Climate Change”

Across more than three decades as a futurist, I have never witnessed the confluence of mega-forces that we are experiencing today. In the next 10 years, some of the greatest fortunes in history will be created by those who understand the emerging landscape and are prepared to ride the waves of change. I’m fired up and ready to navigate this terrain with fellow futurists on May 2.

This article originally appeared in Forbes
Image credit: Pexels

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