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We Are Starving Our Innovation Economy

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We Are Starving Our Innovation Economy

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

The Cold War was fundamentally different from any conflict in history. It was, to be sure, less over land, blood and treasure than it was about ideas. Communist countries believed that their ideology would prevail. They were wrong. The Berlin Wall fell and capitalism, it seemed, was triumphant.

Today, however, capitalism is in real trouble. Besides the threat of a rising China, the system seems to be crumbling from within. Income inequality in developed countries is at 50-year highs. In the US, the bastion of capitalism, markets have weakened by almost every imaginable metric. This wasn’t what we imagined winning would look like.

Yet we can’t blame capitalism. The truth is that its earliest thinkers warned about the potential for excesses that lead to market failure. The fact is that we did this to ourselves. We believed that we could blindly leave our fates to market and technological forces. We were wrong. Prosperity doesn’t happen by itself. We need to invest in an innovation economy.

Capitalism’s (Seemingly) Fatal Contradiction

Anyone who’s taken an “Economics 101” course knows about Adam Smith and his invisible hand. Essentially, the forces of self-interest, by their very nature, work to identify the optimal price that attracts just enough supply of a particular good or service to satisfy demand. This magical equilibrium point creates prosperity through an optimal use of resources.

However, some argued that the story wasn’t necessarily a happy one. After all, equilibrium implies a lack of economic profit and certainly businesses would want to do better than that. They would seek to gain a competitive advantage and, in doing so, create surplus value, which would then be appropriated to accumulate power to rig the system further in their favor.

Indeed, Adam Smith himself was aware of this danger. “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices,” he wrote. In fact, the preservation of free markets was a major concern that ran throughout his work.

Yet as the economist Joseph Schumpeter pointed out, with innovation the contradiction dissipates. As long as we have creative destruction, market equilibriums are constantly shifting and don’t require capitalists to employ extractive, anti-competitive practices in order to earn excellent profits.

Two Paths To Profit

Anyone who manages a business must pursue at least one of two paths to profit. The first is to innovate. By identifying and solving problems in a competitive marketplace, firms can find new ways to create, deliver and capture value. Everybody wins.

Google’s search engine improved our lives in countless ways. Amazon and Walmart have dramatically improved distribution of goods throughout the economy, making it possible for us to pay less and get more. Pfizer and Moderna invested in an unproven technology that uses mRNA to deliver life-saving molecules and saved us from a deadly pandemic.

Still, the truth is that the business reality is not, “innovate or die,” but rather “innovate or find ways to reduce competition.” There are some positive ways to tilt the playing field, such as building a strong brand or specializing in some niche market. However, other strategies are not so innocent. They seek to profit by imposing costs on the rest of us

The first, called rent seeking, involves businesses increasing profits through getting litigation passed in their favor, as when car dealerships in New Jersey sued against Tesla’s direct sales model. The second, regulatory capture, seeks to co-opt agencies that are supposed to govern industry, resulting in favorable implementation and enforcement of the legal code.

Why “Pro-Business” Often Means Anti-Market

Corporations lobby federal, state and local governments to advance their interests and there’s nothing wrong with that. Elected officials should be responsive to their constituents’ concerns. That is, after all, how democracy is supposed to work. However, very often business interests try to maintain that they are arguing for the public good rather than their own.

Consider the issue of a minimum wage. Businesses argue that government regulation of wages is an imposition on the free market and that, given the magical forces of the invisible hand, letting the market set the price for wages would produce optimal outcomes. Artificially increasing wages, on the other hand, would unduly raise prices on the public and reduce profits needed to invest in competitiveness.

This line of argument is nothing new, of course. In fact, Adam Smith addressed it in The Wealth of Nations nearly 250 years ago:

Our merchants and master-manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods both at home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high profits. They are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their own gains. They complain only of those of other people.

At the same time corporations have themselves been undermining the free market for wages through the abuse of non-compete agreements. Incredibly, 38% of American workers have signed some form of non-compete agreement. Of course, most of these are illegal and wouldn’t hold up in court, but serve to intimidate employees, especially low-wage workers.

That’s just for starters. Everywhere you look, free markets are under attack. Occupational licensing, often the result of lobbying by trade associations, has increased five-fold since the 1950s. Antitrust regulation has become virtually nonexistent, while competition has been reduced in the vast majority of American industries.

Perhaps not surprisingly, while all this lobbying has been going on, recent decades have seen business investment and innovation decline, and productivity growth falter while new business formation has fallen by 50%. Corporate profits, on the other hand, are at record highs.

Getting Back On Track

At the end of World War II, America made important investments to create the world’s greatest innovation economy. The GI Bill made what is perhaps the biggest investment ever in human capital, sending millions to college and creating a new middle class. Investments in institutions such as the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) would create scientific capital that would fuel US industry.

Unfortunately, we abandoned that very successful playbook. Over the past 20 years, college tuition in the US has roughly doubled in the last 20 years. Perhaps not surprisingly, we’ve fallen to ninth among OECD countries for post-secondary education. The ones who do graduate are often forced into essentially decades of indentured servitude in the form of student loans.

At the same time, government investment in research as a percentage of GDP has been declining for decades, limiting our ability to produce the kinds of breakthrough discoveries that lead to exciting new industries. What passes for innovation these days displaces workers, but does not lead to significant productivity gains. Legislation designed to rectify the situation and increase our competitiveness stalled in the Senate.

So after 250 years, capitalism remains pretty much as Adam Smith first conceived, powerful yet fragile, always at risk of being undermined and corrupted by the same basic animal spirits that it depends on to set prices efficiently. He never wrote, nor is there any indication he ever intended, that markets should be left to their own devices. In fact, he and others warned us that markets need to be actively promoted and protected.

We are free to choose. We need to choose more wisely.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credits: Microsoft CoPilot

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We Were Wrong About What Drove the 21st Century

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We Were Wrong About What Drove the 21st Century

GUEST POST from Greg Satell

Every era contains a prism of multitudes. World War I gave way to the “Roaring 20s” and a 50-year boom in productivity. The Treaty of Versailles sowed the seeds to the second World War, which gave way to the peace and prosperity post-war era. Vietnam and the rise of the Baby Boomers unlocked a cultural revolution that created new freedoms for women and people of color.

Our current era began with the 80s, the rise of Ronald Reagan and a new confidence in the power of markets. Genuine achievements of the Chicago School of economics led by Milton Friedman, along with the weakness Soviet system, led to an enthusiasm for market fundamentalism that dominated policy circles.

So it shouldn’t be that surprising that veteran Republican strategist Stuart Stevens wrote a book denouncing that orthodoxy as a lie. The truth is he has a point. But politicians can only convince us of things we already want to believe. The truth is that we were fundamentally mistaken in our understanding of how the world works. It’s time that we own up to it.

Mistake #1: The End Of The Cold War Would Strengthen Capitalism

When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, the West was triumphant. Communism was shown to be a corrupt system bereft of any real legitimacy. A new ideology took hold, often called the Washington Consensus, that preached fiscal discipline, free trade, privatization and deregulation. The world was going to be remade in capitalism’s image.

Yet for anybody who was paying attention, communism had been shown to be bankrupt and illegitimate since the 1930s when Stalin’s failed collectivization effort and industrial plan led him to starve his own people. Economists have estimated that, by the 1970s, Soviet productivity growth had gone negative, meaning more investment actually brought less output. The system’s collapse was just a matter of time.

At the same time, there were early signs that there were serious problems with the Washington Consensus. Many complained that bureaucrats at the World Bank and the IMF were mandating policies for developing nations that citizens in their own countries would not accept. So called “austerity programs” led to human costs that were both significant and real. In a sense, the error of the Soviets was being repeated—ideology was put before people.

Today, instead of a capitalist utopia and an era of peace and prosperity, we got a global rise in authoritarian populism, stagnant wages, reduced productivity growth and weaker competitive markets. In particular in the United States, by almost every metric imaginable, capitalism has been weakened.

Mistake #2: Digital Technology Would Make Everything Better

In November 1989, the same year that the Berlin Wall fell, Tim Berners-Lee created the World Wide Web and ushered in a new technological era of networked computing that we now know as the “digital revolution.” Much like the ideology of market fundamentalism that took hold around the same time, technology was seen as determinant of a new, brighter age.

By the late 1990s, increased computing power combined with the Internet to create a new productivity boom. Many economists hailed the digital age as a “new economy” of increasing returns, in which the old rules no longer applied and a small initial advantage would lead to market dominance.

Yet by 2004, productivity growth had slowed again to its earlier lethargic pace. Today, despite very real advances in processing speed, broadband penetration, artificial intelligence and other things, we seem to be in the midst of a second productivity paradox in which we see digital technology everywhere except in the economic statistics.

Digital technology was supposed to empower individuals and reduce the dominance of institutions, but just the opposite has happened. Income inequality in advanced economies markedly increased. In America wages have stagnated and social mobility has declined. At the same time, social media has been destroying our mental health.

When Silicon Valley told us they intended to “change the world,” is this what they meant?

Mistake #3: Medical Breakthroughs Would Automatically Make Us Healthier

Much like the fall of the Berlin Wall and the rise of the Internet, the completion of the Human Genome Project in 2003 promised great things. No longer would we be at the mercy of terrible terrible diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s, but would design genetic therapies that would rewire our bodies to find off disease by themselves.

The advances since then have been breathtaking. The Cancer Genome Atlas, which began in 2005, helped enable doctors to develop therapies targeted at specific mutations, rather than where in the body a tumor happened to be found. Later, CRISPR revolutionized synthetic biology, bringing down costs exponentially.

The rapid development of Covid-19 vaccines have shown how effective these new technologies are. Scientists have essentially engineered new viruses containing the viral genome to produce a few proteins, just enough to provoke an immune response but not nearly enough to make us sick. 20 years ago, this would have been considered science fiction. Today, it’s a reality.

Yet we are not healthier. Worldwide obesity has tripled since 1975 and has become an epidemic in the United States. Anxiety and depression have as well. American healthcare costs continue to rise even as life expectancy declines. Despite the incredible advance in our medical capability, we seem to be less healthy and more miserable.

Worse Than A Crime, It Was A Blunder

Whenever I bring up these points among technology people, they vigorously push back. Surely, they say, you can see the positive effects all around you. Can you imagine what the global pandemic would be like without digital technologies? Without videoconferencing? Hasn’t there been a significant global decline in extreme poverty and violence?

Yes. There have absolutely been real achievements. As someone who spent roughly half my adult life in Eastern Bloc countries, I can attest to how horrible the Soviet system was. Digital technology has certainly made our lives more convenient and, as noted above, medical advances have been very real and very significant.

However, technology is a process that involves both revealing and building. Yes, we revealed the power of market forces and the bankruptcy of the Soviet system, but failed to build a more prosperous and healthy society. In much the same way, we revealed the power of the microchip, miracle cures and many other things, but failed to put them to use in such a way that would make us measurably better off.

When faced with a failure this colossal, people often look for a villain. They want to blame the greed of corporations, the arrogance of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs or the incompetence of government bureaucrats. The truth is, as the old saying goes, it was worse than a crime, it was a blunder. We simply believed that market forces and technological advancement would work their magic and all would be well in hand.

By now we should know better. We need to hold ourselves accountable, make better choices and seek out greater truths.

— Article courtesy of the Digital Tonto blog
— Image credit: Pixabay

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