GUEST POST from Geoffrey A. Moore

The Volume Operations business model kicks in when you have hundreds of thousands of users and goes up from there. 100,000, for those of us who are not math majors, is 10 to the power of 5. Uber-successful volume ops businesses operate at 10 to the power of 9 and up—millions of users or customers. But if you are a start-up, you are looking at 10 or maybe 100. How do you get from here to there?

The key thought to keep in mind is the old chestnut “what got you here won’t get you there.” That is, whatever operating model you have, keep in mind it can scale to two exponents but never to three. That means for every two exponents you have to change operating models, which likely means you have to change executive leadership in order to go forward.

To illustrate this idea, I’d like to focus on the non-profit sector and ask the question, what would it take to really solve for any widespread social problem? Homelessness was the first one that came to mind, but hunger is another obvious one, drug addiction a second, street crime a third. They are all seemingly intractable issues that, despite the best intentions of a whole raft of people, and regardless of how much funding is supplied, stubbornly resist any sustainable improvement.

The question I want to address is not what programs would work—because I actually think a whole lot of programs would work—but rather, how could we organize to deploy these programs successfully at scale.

Following our principle of what got you here won’t get you there, we need a ladder of operating models that can take us, exponent by exponent, from 10 to the power of 1 to, say, 10 to the power of 7. What might that look like?

Consider this a straw man, a place to start, something to edit. It conveys a key lesson from the high-tech sector, namely that the fastest way to kill a disruptive innovation is to race to scale by skipping over one or more of these “exponential steps.” It just doesn’t work. There are too many emergent factors at each new level you must learn to cope with in order to succeed. The only reliable way to scale is to ratchet your way up this staircase, adapting your systems and operations as you go.

Unfortunately, that’s not what politicians do. They want to make a big impact right away. That means they start everything on one of the upper stairs. Driven by impatience, they ignore the dynamics of adoption and demand mass deployment from the get-go. They think the problem is simply one of getting enough funding. It’s not. It’s one of operational innovation. Scaling prematurely simply wastes the funding. And then when programs do flounder, as they inevitably will, they blame it on execution when in reality they simply did not do the hard, time-consuming work of building up their foundation step by step from below.

One of the implications of this framework is that social services should be incubated in the private sector where freedom from regulatory constraints supports agile innovation. But as they scale, the importance of regulatory oversight increases and more communal engagement is required. The goal should be to keep this oversight as local as possible as long as possible, doing as much as we can to empower the people delivering the service itself. Once that operating model solidifies, then, and only then, is there a proper foundation for scaling to state and federal programs.

Today, we do not lack the empathy to support social services. Nor do we lack the funding. But we are failing nonetheless. We can do better. We need to do better.

That’s what I think. What do you think?

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